Project Time Management

Chapter 6
Project Time
Management
2017/11/21 帅传敏http://www.shuaicm.com 1
内容提要 Contents
1.Activity Definition
2. Activity Sequencing
3.Estimating of Activity Duration
4. Schedule Development
5. Schedule Control
Project Time Management
项目时间管理
WBS
范围说明活动网络图活动时间估计项目进度计划进度更新
WBS Scope Statement Network Diagram Time Estimates Project Schedule Schedule Update
活动估算活动制定进
活动定义控制进度
排序持续时间度计划
Activity Schedule Schedule

Activity Activity
Duration Development Control
Definition Sequencing
Estimating
6.1 Activity Definition
6.1.1 定义 Definition
Identifying the specific schedule activities that
need to be performed to produce project deliverables.
。To ensure the project team to have a complete
understanding of all project activities within the
project scope.
6.1 活动定义 Activity Definition
6.1 Activity Definition
6.1.2 依据 (Input)
Project schedule plan comes from the
basic documents for the project start, such as,
project scope statement (PSS) and work
breakdown structure (WBS).
6.1.3 Tools and Techniques
1. Decomposition
The technique of decomposition, as it is applied to activity
definition, involves subdividing the project work packages into
smaller, more manageable components called activities. The
Define Activities process defines the final outputs as activities
rather than as deliverables, as is done in the Create WBS process
(Section 5.3).
2. Rolling Wave Planning
3. Templates
4. Expert Judgment
4. (Output)
(1) Activity list
(2) Activity attributes
(3) Milestone list
6.2 Activity Sequencing
6.2.1Definition
Identifying and documenting dependencies among
schedule activities (which work activities need to be
performed before others).
6.2 活动排序 Activity Sequencing
6.2.2 Tools and Techniques .1 Precedence
Diagramming Method (PDM)
PDM is a method of constructing a project schedule network
diagram that uses boxes or rectangles, referred to as nodes,
to represent activities and connects them with arrows that
show the dependencies. Figure 6-5 shows a simple project
schedule network diagram drawn using PDM. This
technique is also called activity-on-node (AON), and is the
method used by most project management software
packages.
顺序图法 (PDM) (AON)
design construction
4 logical
relationships 设计施工 1完成－开始关系
四 (Finish-to-Start)
种设计某活动必须结束然后另一活动
逻才能开始
2完成－完成关系
辑
施工 (Finish-to-Finish)
关
系设计某活动结束前，另一活动必须结束
3开始－开始关系
施工 (Start-to-Start)
某活动必须在另一活动开始前开始
4开始－完成关系
设计施工
(Start-to-Finish
某活动结束前另一活动必须开始
顺序图法（AON）的实例:
A C F
start end
开始 D 结束
B E G
图6.5 用顺序图法绘制的项目网络图
Lay foundations Build house
2 4
2 3
7
Start 1 End
1
3
Design house
and obtain
3 6
1 5 1
financing
1 Select carpet Finish work
Order and receive
materials Select paint
Fig. 6-6 AON Network for a House Building Project
－Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)(AOA)(箭线法)
ADM is a method of constructing a project schedule
network diagram that uses arrows to represent activities
and connects them at nodes to show their dependencies.
Figure 6-7 shows a simple network logic diagram drawn
using ADM. This technique is also called activity-on-arrow
(AOA) and, although less prevalent than PDM, it is still
used in teaching schedule network theory and in some
application areas.
6.2 Activity Sequencing
（AOA, Activity on the arrow）
C
A 2 4 F
start
10 5 3
end
开始 1 D 7 6 结束
7 5
B 11 5 G
3 E
图6-7 用箭线法绘制的网络图
AOA Network for a House
Building Project
3
Lay Dummy
foundation
2 0 Build Finish
3 1 house work
1 2 4 6 7
Design house Order and 3 1
and obtain receive 1 1
Select Select
financing materials paint carpet
5
Concurrent Activities
3
Lay foundation Lay
Dummy
foundation
2 0
2 3
1
Order material 2 4
Order material
(a) Incorrect precedence (b) Correct precedence

relationship relationship
任何两事件(Events)之间只能由一条箭线连接，否则不利于分析、计算，甚至无
法解决问题。若出现并行作业(Concurrent activities)可引入虚工序(Dummy)。
6.2.3 Outputs (成果)
1. Project Schedule Network Diagrams (项目进度
网络图)
2. Project Document Updates (项目文件更新)
6.3 Activity Estimating
6.3.1 Definition
Activity estimating is the process of
estimating the type and quantities of material,
people, equipment and the number of work
periods needed to perform each activity.
6.3.2 Methods
1.Analogous Estimating
It uses parameters such as duration, budget, size,
weight, and complexity, from a precious, similar project,
as the basis for estimating the same parameter of
measure for a future project.
6.3.2 估计方法 Methods
2. Expert Judgment
We may be told to contact a past project manager or
expert in a particular area to get accurate information on
activity estimates.
6.3 活动估计 Activity Estimating
6.3.2 Methods
3. Mathematical Derivation
It offers a more objective alternative to activity
duration estimation. This method consists of developing
duration probability based on a reasoned analysis of
best-case, most likely case, and worse-case scenarios.
三时估计法 Three-Point Estimates
 对某项活动的工期进行估计时，必须以这项活动所
使用的资源数量为基础，这个估计应既有挑战性，
又符合实际。通常，稍微激进的估计要比过分保守
的估计要好一些。
The estimation of the activity duration must be based on
the number of used resources. This kind of assessment is
both challenging and realistic. Typically, a little radical
estimation is better than the overly conservative one.
Three-Point Estimates
Three types of estimates
（1）乐观时间（optimistic t i m e , t o ）
（2）最可能时间（ m o s t likely t i m e , t m ）
（3）悲观时间（ p e s s i m i s t i c t i m e , t p ）
经验规律：在超出悲观时间估计的时间
经验规律：在超出悲观时间估计的时
内完成活动的机会仅有10%。
间
经验规律：在少于乐观时间估计的时间
经验规律：在少于乐观时间估计的时
间
a——最快可能完工时间（to - 乐观时间）
b——最慢可能完工时间 (tp - 悲观时间)
m——最可能完工时间 (tm - 最可能时间)
(一般地：a<m<b )
可以认为工序所需时间T是一个随机变量，它近似地服
从正态分布，数学上可计算出 T 的期望值(mean)E ( T )、
方差(variance)D ( T )和标准差(standard deviation)σ：
a  4m  b
E(T )  t e  (6－1)
6
ba b a
2
D(T )     （6－2）
 6  6
PERT 加权平均 =（乐观的+4×最
最可能的可能的+悲观的）/6
most likely PERT weighted average = (optimistic T +
4 X most likely T + pessimistic T) / 6
Beta distribution
β分布
optimistic pessimistic
乐观的悲观的
可能工期 possible project duration

图6.10 三时估计法
三时估计法 Three-Point Estimates
项目活动工期估算汇总表
单位：天 Day
Activities Optimistic Pessimistic Expected Time
Project
Total
6.4 制定进度计划 Develop Schedule
项目进度计划编制技术 (Scheduling Techniq.)
1. Gantt Chart
2. Critical Path Method, CPM
3. Program Evaluation and Review Technique, PERT
4.Critical Chain Method, CCM
6.4.1 甘特图 Gantt Chart

• 甘特图是由哈维·甘特于1917年发明的。甘特图建立了一
个基于时间的网络，它通过项目进度基准计划连接项目
活动，同时它也可作为一个项目追踪工具，来评价计划和
实际进展之间的差距。
Gantt Chart is developed by Harvey Gantt in 1917.
Gantt Chart establish a time-phased network, which links
project activities to a project schedule baseline. They can
also be used as a project tracking tool to assess the
difference between planned and actual performance.
6.4 Develop Schedule
Benefits of Gantt Charts: (1) they are very easy to read
and comprehend; (2) they identify the project network
coupled with its schedule baseline; (3) they allow for
updating and project control; (4) they are useful for
identifying resource needs and assigning resources to
tasks, and (5) they are easy to create.
6.4.2 CPM
It identifies the latest and earliest times each activity
can be started or must be completed, the latest and
earliest times each activity can be completed, and activity
float. Then, the critical path can be created.
C
A F
2 5 4
Start 10 3 End
开始 1 D 7 6 结束
7 5
B 11 G
3 5
E
图6.14 Critical Path Method (CPM关键路径法)
6.4.3 计划评审技术 PERT
PERT was originally used in research and

development (R&D), and resulted from probability
analysis; whereas CPM is used commonly in the
construction industry.

• PERT与CPM的主要区别是在于对活动历时估计
的假设上，CPM 假设活动历时都是确定性的，而
PERT则相反。
CPM differs from PERT primarily in the assumptions
it makes about estimating activity durations. CPM
assumes that durations are more deterministic, while
PERT assumes that durations are uncertain.

• 在过去的实际应用中，PERT和CPM的差异越来越
模糊化。因此，现在通常将这些网络技术统称为
PERT/CPM。
In practice, however, over the years the differences
between PERT and CPM have continued to blur to the
point where it is common to simply refer to these
networking techniques as PERT/CPM.
Please find:
(1) Probability of finishing
the project within 22.78 days?
(2) How many days will the project last if we have 90%
D 5 probability of finishing it?

2
3－4－11
A G
B
1 3 7
C F
H
E 6
4 某项目
网络图
A Project Network Diagram
解：由公式
D 5
2
3－4－11
G
(6-1), 求出各
A
工序的期望
B
1 3 7
时间te : C F
H
E 6
2  4  3  4
4
t eA   3,
6
2  4  2  2
t eB   2,
6 a  4m  b
te  (6 -1)
3  4  4  8
t eC   4 . 5, 6
6 Find expected T of each
3  4  4  11 activity first based on
t eD   5, equation given.
6
t eE  8, t eF  7 , t eG  8 , t eH  6 .5
D
2 5
5
A G Find the CP 1 – 4 –
6 - 7. So, C, E, H
B
1 3 7 are critical activities,
F H and the project
C
4 .5 duration is expected
6.5
E 6 to be 19 days.
4
TE= teC + teE+ teH = 4.5 + 8 + 6.5 = 19(天)
D 5
2
3 －4－11
A G
B
1 3 7
C F So, P =
H
Find the average variance 98% if
of the critical activities E 6
4 project
均方差： will be
         finished
2 2 2
8 3 14 6 10 5
   C2   E2   H2         1.8 within
 6   6   6  22.78
22 .78  19 
P T  22 .78    0 
days.
1    0 2.1  0.98 With
 1.8  90% P, it
2 因为  0 1.28   0.9 即得   1.28 will
become
所以 TK  TE     19 1.281.8  21.3 ( 天 ) 21.3 days.
因此，工程要在22.78天前完工的概率是0.98 (或98%)，
若要以90%的把握完工，工期只要21.3天。
6.4.4 CCM
Critical chain method (CCM) is another schedule network
analysis technique that modifies the project schedule to
account for limited resources. Initially, the project schedule
network diagram is built using duration estimates with
required dependencies and defined constraints as inputs. The
critical path is then calculated. After the critical path is
identified, resource availability is entered and the resource-
limited schedule result is determined. The resulting schedule
often has an altered critical path.
6.5 Schedule Control
6.5.1 Project schedule compression
Crashing is a specific type of project schedule
compression technique performed by taking action to
decrease the total project duration after analyzing a
number of alternatives to determine how to get the
maximum schedule duration for the least additional cost.
Fast tracking is a specific project schedule

compression technique that changes network logic to
perform schedule activities in parallel.
6.5.2 赶工 Crashing
.1 Causes
(1) The initial schedule may be too optimistic.
(2) Market needs change and the project
is in demand earlier than anticipated.
6.5 进度控制 Schedule Control
(3) The project has slipped

considerably schedule. behind
(4) The contractual situation

provides even more incentive to avoid
schedule slippage.
.2 Methods
(1) Improving the productivity of existing project resources.
Improving the planning and organization of the project;
eliminating any barriers to productivity such as excessive
bureaucratic interference or physical constraints;
improving the motivation of the project team.
6.5 进度控制 Schedule Control
(2) Changing the working method employed for the
activity.
Altering the technology; assigning the senior personnel;
hiring contract personnel or subcontractors to perform
specific project functions.
(3) Increasing the quantity of project resources.
Firstly, working current resources for longer hours,
including overtime and weekend work. The reality is that
real marginal gains from extended overtime are not likely
to compensate for the extra costs the project will incur.
For example, it was found that in engineering
functions, optimal performance was realized after only
four hours of overtime per week; by the time engineers
were working 10 hours of overtime, the marginal real
extra output realized by the company had dropped to zero.
(3) Increasing the quantity of project resources.
Secondly, increasing the number of project team
personnel, is often useful as long as the link between
cost and schedule is respected.
Cost
Crashing
point
Crashing
Normal
point
Normal
Crashing Normal
Time
图6.19 赶工活动的时间－成本均衡
Trade-off between Time and Cost in Crashing

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Chapter 6

Activity Schedule Schedule

Fig. 6-6 AON Network for a House Building Project

(a) Incorrect precedence (b) Correct precedence

可能工期 possible project duration

6.4.1 甘特图 Gantt Chart

图6.14 Critical Path Method (CPM关键路径法)

6.4.3 计划评审技术 PERT

PERT was originally used in research and

6.4.3 计划评审技术 PERT

6.4.3 计划评审技术 PERT

D 5 probability of finishing it?

TE= teC + teE+ teH = 4.5 + 8 + 6.5 = 19(天)

Fast tracking is a specific project schedule

(3) The project has slipped

(4) The contractual situation

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