Global Change and the

Coastal Challenge
Peter Burbridge
Professor Emeritus for Coastal
Management
University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Chair of CoastNet
 Global Change
• Global Change = Climate Change
PLUS Changes to the Earth’s natural
systems initiated by man.
• Together these are major drivers affecting
the health and productivity of natural
systems and their ability to sustain human
needs and aspirations.
• Key point- we have a greater chance of
sustaining human development in coastal
regions through stronger integration of
watershed/river basin management,
coastal zone management and marine
development than by focussing primarily
 Coastal Change and Global Change
•Human pressure & use •Climatic & Environmental
(multiple effects on quality & Change (sea level, climate
quantity of resource, products patterns, CO2, global
& amenities, across scales and systems, atmospheric
regions) deposition and cycles)
 The Hydrology Short
Story

Future Water Scarcity

Scenarios

• triggered predominantly
by Humans at geospatial
scales rather than by
climate change

Water reuse index  DIA/Q

against 1985 baseline with
20% threshold:

red = more scarcity

blue = less scarcity
Vörösmarty et al. 2000 and Vörösmarty 2002
 Global change - Water Shortage - Human
response - “Engineering”
•On average one large dam >15m high has been built every day for
100 years, with over 36,000 large dams worldwide.
•Between 1951 and 1982, dams were constructed at a rate of
900/yr
•Prior to 1950, only 8 dams in China, as of 1982, 18,600 dams (or
55% of world total with US at 16% and Japan at 6%).
•Storage behind large dams (8400 km3) represents a 700%
increase in the standing stock of fresh water (1200 km3).

QuickTime™ and a
GIF decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
 Sediment Load at River Mouth (MT/yr)
Syvitski and Vörösmarty, 2002
Sediments and Change

Sediment Load (MT/yr)

1-10
10-25
25-50
50-100
100-200

200-400

>400

Coastal erosion along a muddy mangrove

coast, Chao Phraya River delta. Electric
poles still stand in the sea after the
shoreline has retreated. (photo Yoshiki Saito)

Millennial-scale paleotopography
of the Mekong River delta
(from Ta et al. 2002)
sin wide sediment Trapping Efficiency

Nile

Contact:
J.Syvitski
Vörösmarty 2002
 The Coastal Zone: Society’s Edge
as defined by elevation (+200 to +100 to -100 to –200 m)

< of land surface

A spatial and temporal edge: A resource sustainability ‘edge’:

•high gradients/variability
(e.g., climatic) / Biodiversity,
•major biogeochemical processes
•Catchment - Shelf units
•> 50% of human population (variable)
• 25 % biological Productivity;
• 90 % global Fishery production,
• Ecosystem services: ~$17.5
trillion (Global ES ~$33.3 trillion)
Wilson et al in prep.
Coastal People
The global coastal
zone has
concentrated
population
pressures

Typology showing
estimated regions
of highly
“disturbed”
coastal systems

typology filter (half

degree pixel):
population density
>60 km-2 and
cropland use >10%
 Global Change and the
Coastal Challenge
• The coastal domain is the most dynamic part of the
global ecosystem and the area most subject to
natural and man-induced global change;
• At a global scale, coastal systems (including forests)
play a significant role in regulating global change;
• Although major river systems have a profound
influence on coastal and nearshore marine
systems at a regional level, the mounting
pressures from human development and their
effects on coastal systems are felt most acutely at
small to medium catchment scales;
• Concepts of sustainable coastal development need to
incorporate watershed and catchment processes,
and the dynamics of coastal systems.
 Coastal Changes
• Loss of 70% f mangrove in Thailand due
to urban development, aquaculture
• Flooding, loss of crops, salinization of
soils in Transmigration areas in
Sumatra converted from tidal swamp
forests
• Subsidence of the Indus Delta due to
changes in catchment
• Reduction of fisheries in Mekong river
system
• 70% of Europe’s coastal are has been
degraded through poor planning and
management (EU-ICZM demonstration
 The Coastal Challenge
• Managing the human use of coastal
areas and resources to maximise
social and economic benefits while
minimising risks to life, property,
and private and public investment
• Issues to manage
– Concentration of Global population in coastal areas
– The future focus for economic expansion and
diversification
– Opportunities
– Coastal Hazards Sea Level Rise, Tsunamis, Flooding
– Risks- Climate Change or Global Change
– Challenge is to develop opportunities while
minimising risks
– Sustainability is a question of Social Choice.
 Opportunities
• Energy:
– Wind, Wave, Tidal
• Manufacturing, Transport and Trade
• Leisure ad Recreation
• Food Security
– Aquaculture and Sea Ranching
– Capture Fisheries
– Agriculture
–
•
 Potential Conflicts: TYPE OF

Coral reefs and

Coastal Development and ECOSYSTEM

lagoons
Mangrove
important coastal ecosystems

swamps

Seagrass
Estuaries

beds
Marshe

Beache

Islands
Deltas

s
s
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
Agriculture and farming
Feedlots, ranching, and rangelands
Forestry
Aquaculture and mariculture
Nearshore capture fisheries
Dredging and filling
Airfields
Harbours
Roadways and causeways
Shipping
Electric power generation
Heavy industry (onshore)
Upland mining
Coastal mining
Offshore oil and gas development
Military facilities, training and testing
Land clearing and site preparation
Sanitary sewage discharges
Solid waste disposal
Water development and control
Shoreline management and use
Coastal resource use

Significant adverse effects likely

Adverse effects possible
 Hazards
• Storm Surges
– In 2008 Myanmar in the Indian Ocean was hit
by the tropical cyclone Nargis and the
associated storm surge left a trail of
destruction. More than 100.000 people lost
their lives.
– In 1953 and 1962, the Netherlands, England,
and Hamburg were severely affected by
storm surges.
• Tsunamis- Asia
• Flooding -Pakistan, Bangladesh
• Pollution- Gulf of Mexico, Exxon Valdiz
• Catastrophic events- Acts of God or Acts of
Man?
– Poor upland, coastal and marine
Perceptions of Hazards and
Risks
• We tend to focus on Climate Change
and issues such as sea level rise
• Global Change- Climate change PLUS
the influence of man on terrestrial
and marine systems
• The impact of Global Change is
underestimated in terms of
sustaining human use of coastal
and marine areas.
Concept of Sustainability

• “the proper use and care

of the coastal
environment borrowed
from future generations”
(Turner et. al. 1998).
•
 “Sustainability”

• An expression of both
social choice and the
ability of the
environment to
continue to support
human needs and
aspirations.
 Sustainability: A
Continuum
•

• Weak Strong

Social Choice
 Strong versus weak “Sustainability Options”

•Atomic Power plant located on an eroding

shore - is a reality
•WEAK Sustainability:
natural resources and man made
capital (money, technology and
machines) needed to sustain the viability
of the power plant.
•
•The Alternative
•
•Strong Sustainability:
conserving different forms of capital
(man-made, human, natural, social/
moral) to meet the aspirations and needs
of human populations over time:
•the natural capital of coastal systems
(biological diversity, generation of
renewable resources, and maintenance
of natural processes and functions)
Nuclear power station at Sizewell remains constant or increases
•
adapted from P. Burbridge
 “Strong” Sustainability
• The conservation of different forms of
capital (man-made, human, natural, and
social/moral) in respect to meeting the
needs of human populations over time.
• The natural capital of coastal systems
(biological diversity, generation of
renewable resources, and maintenance of
natural processes and functions) remains
constant or increases.
• Existing Legal, Institutional and Policy
instruments need to be used creatively to
promote more sustainable use of coastal
areas.
 Global Change and the
Practitioner
• Issues
– We focus too much on Climate change and
do not clearly perceive the influence of
Global Change
– Legal Jurisdiction Sea and Land are
commonly treated as legally different
regimes-
• Mandates and Administrative Boundaries
ignore natural processes that link land and
ocean
– Lack of Effective linkage between Science
and Management
– Increasing impact of natural hazards
compounded by poor management of
development pressures
– Social choice is often misinformed or
 What the Scientist, Policy
maker and Practitioner can do:
• Scientists- giver more emphasis to
communicating the social, economic
and environmental significance of
scientific evidence to policy makers,
development planners and the public;
• Policy Makers- giver greater
consideration to the linkages between
terrestrial, coastal and marine
systems in developing administrative
boundaries and institutional
mandates. Marine Spatial Planning is
fruitless if it in not founded on a clear
understanding of land-ocean
interactions.
 What we can do continued
• Practitioners-
• Give greater attention to broader
spatial, economic and social scales
in assessing opportunities for and
constraints upon human
development.
• Use available tools with imagination,
creative skill within a broad
systems perspective.
• A good craftsperson does not blame
the tools available.
 Tools
• Policy and supporting Legislation
– EU Water Framework Directive:
– Contract de Bai in Rade de Brest
– Integrated watershed management, Italy
• Science and communication of
information to inform policy, planning
and management
– LOICZ
• Human Resources-
– we need to strengthen ICM by
integrating spatial, social and
economic dimensions at a broad scale
• Public Awareness and Support-
Potential Benefits from Integrating
Upland, Coastal and Marine
management
•
• Maintaining the hydrology and
material fluxes essential to the health
and productivity of coastal ecosystems;
• • Restoring the functions and natural
resources generated by riparian
ecosystems, coastal ecosystems and
marine ecosystems;
• • Reducing the adverse effects of
natural and man-induced hazards;
• • Ameliorating Global Change;
• • Supporting the expansion and
diversification of economic activities in
the coastal realm and within watersheds;
 Conclusions

• Stronger integration of terrestrial,

coastal and marine development
planning can help reduce the
adverse effects of man-induced
Global Change and support a
transition towards more
sustainable use of terrestrial,
coastal, and nearshore marine
ecosystems.