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Ecologist Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book: The Population Bomb predicted that the world
will undergo famines in 1970s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in
spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. It is too late!!!
William and Paul Paddock’s 1967 book Famine 1975! America’s Decision: Who will
survive? advocated a triage approach to foreign aid. The “can’t be saved group” that
included India and Philippines should not receive any aid.
Biologist Garrent Hardin became famous for coining the term “the tragedy of the
commons” to describe the problems that can arise from conflicts of interest when
there is open access to exploitation to natural resources. In 1977 he published The
Limits of Altruism in support of “tough-minded” approach recognizing that countries
such as India had exceeded their “carrying” capacity.
Yet over the past century growth in productivity of both land and labor has
enabled world food supplies to outpace the unprecedented increase in food
demand caused by jumps in the growth rate of world income and by
doubling and redoubling of population.
Tons/hectare
5
4
3
2
1
Despite doubling and redoubling of crop yields seen in some developing countries,
any absolute yield ceiling seems far off.
Scientists have estimated yields that can be generated if a plant is given all the
inputs it needs. For most cereals, potential yields are several multiples of the
present average US yield.
What role might biotechnology play in sustainable agriculture?
"Sustainable agriculture" is both a term and a concept whose definition has varied a great
deal. As articulated in the 1990 "Farm Bill" Food, Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of
1990, P.L. 101-624, Title XVI, Subtitle A, Section 1603) sustainable agriculture means "an
integrated system of plant and animal production practices having a site-specific application
that will, over the long term: (A) satisfy human food and fiber needs; (B) enhance
environmental quality and the natural resource base upon which the agricultural economy
depends; (C) make the most efficient use of nonrenewable resources and on-farm resources
and integrate, where appropriate, natural biological cycles and controls; (D) sustain the
economic viability of farm operations; and (E) enhance the quality of life for farmers and
society as a whole."
Biotechnology has the potential to assist farmers in reducing on-farm chemical inputs and
produce value-added commodities. Conversely, there are concerns about the use of
biotechnology in agricultural systems including the possibility that it may lead to greater
farmer dependence on the providers of the new technology. Where these two new
developments will lead agriculture is open for debate.