Overpopulation

Issues to Be Considered
Population Growth – fertility rates, social and cultural
roles, government roles

Economic problems – debt, hunger and starvation

Available resources – renewable (time frames), non-

renewable

Consumption – expectations, reality

Urbanization – trends, benefits, problems

 GLOBAL POPULATION
TRENDS
• The world population is continuously
increasing. Several nations of the
world are gripped by the problem of
population.
• At the beginning of the Christian era,
nearly 2,000 years ago, world
population was estimated to be around
250 million.
 Subsequent estimates of the world population, &
rates of increase
It required all the humane One billion
history up to the year 1800 for
the world population to reach

Around 1930 Second billion came in 130 years

Around 1960 Third billion in 30 years

In 1974 The fourth billion in 15 years

In 1987 The fifth billion in 13 years

In1999 The sixth billion in 12 years.

It is expected to reach 8 billion by
2025.
 Growth rate is faster in
Developing Countries
• About three fourth of population lives in the
developing countries.
• India Indonesia and Bangladesh, the three
countries of the South East Asia Region[SEAR],
are recognized among the most populous 10
countries of the world.
• According to UN projections, India’s population
will reach 1.53 billion by the year 2050, and will
be the highest population in the world.
Growth rate of World Population
• The growth rate is not uniform in the world.
• There are many countries in the world [Ex. European
countries] where the growth rate is less than 0.5 per cent
per year.
• In Developing countries, the growth rates are excessive- it
is around
• 2.8 per cent in Africa,
• 1.5 per cent in Latin America
• 0.5 in Europe and 1.9 per cent in Asia
• A population growing at 0.5 % per year will double in
about 140 years,
• A population growing at 3% per year will double in 20-25
years.
 Salient Features of World Population Growth
I. Approximately 95% of this growth is occurring in developing
countries
II. Currently, one third of the population is under the age of 15 and will
soon enter the reproductive bracket, giving more potential for
population growth.
III. The UNFPA estimates that world population is most likely to nearly
double to 10 billion people in 2050,
IV. The expected number of births per women, at current fertility rate,
is: Africa-6.1; Asia,3.2, Latin America3.4; North America 2.0;
Europe 1.6.
V. World population is currently growing at 176 people per
minute; 10,564 people per hour, 2,,53,542 people per day
and 9,25,43,000 people per year.
 Is India Over-Populated
• India has a vast population, that is, 121.02
Crore in 2011.
• With a huge population of 121 Crore [April
1st 2011] India is the second most populous
country in the world, next only to China,
whereas seventh in land area.
• With only 2.4% of the worlds land area,
India is supporting about 17.5% of the
world’s population.
Population itself is not a problem
• Population if manageable and efficient, is an asset
to any country. It is the index of its inner strength.
It leads to a better and fuller exploitation of its
natural resources.
• But if it becomes unmanageable, it eats into the
vitals of the nation and becomes an evil.
• A large size of population by itself must not be
confused with overpopulation.
• A country is over-populated or under-populated in
relation to area, resources and their utilization.
 Population Explosion in India!
• At present stage of her economic development,
there is little doubt that India is over-populated.
Population has become a socio-economic problem
for India.
• Alarming growth of population has become one of
the most terrifying problems of India today.
Massive population is seriously threatening our
economic development.
• Abnormal growth of population which is indeed,
the population explosion.
 Some important Aspects of the
growth of Indian Population
• As per the 1991 census, India’s population was 844
millions and it increased to 1027 millions in2001,
and to 1070.3 million in 2004,121.02 India crore in
2011.
• The land area of the country is only 2.4%of the total
land area of the world. But its population is about
17.5%of the total population of the world as per
2011 cencus.
• India’s is just two-fifth of the USA, but India’s
population is more than 2 and a half times the
population of the USA and USSR put together.
• India’s population is equal to the total
population of 55 countries of Africa and
Latin America.
• In India today, 30 babies are born every
minute, 55,000 babies are born everyday
and about 13 millions babies are born every
year as per 2001 census.
• India, it is remarked, add one Australia[that
is the population of Australia] to its
population every year.
What is birth Rate & death Rate ?

• Birth rate is an overall term for the crude

birth rate and the fertility rate.

• An expression of the number of deaths in a

population at risk during one year.
 CAUSES FOR THE RAPID
GROWTH OF POPULATION
1.Excess of Birth Over Death: death rate declining
rapidly in India.
• It was 42.6 per 1000 in 1911 and it decreased to
7.48 deaths /1000 in 2011.
• The birth rate is still high in India. It was 49.2 per
1000 in 1911 and decreased to only 20.97 per
1000 in 2011.
• The gap between birth rate and death rate has
widen leading to an increase in the population.
• Progress in Medical Knowledge and its
application considerably reduced the death rate. It
has helped us to control the spread of diseases like
malaria, tb, cholera, plague, etc. and protected the
lives of people from the jaws of death, positively,
it has contributed to greater population, because
those person saved from the death also produced
children to add to the existing numbers.
• Improvement in Transport facilities: has helped
people too avail medical facilities without much
difficulty. These have saved countless lives and
added to the size of the population.
• Certain social factors like universal marriage,
child Marriage, early marriage: Indian consider
marriage as a social obligation and almost all
marriageable persons are in a married state, life
long bachelorship is looked down upon.
particularly for women marriage is almost an
inescapable obligation.
• Social attitude of Indians: poverty, illiteracy,
ignorance, absence, of recreational facilities,
attitudes of conservatism, orthodoxy, feeling of
dependence on god, looking upon children as old
age pension, etc.are all responsible for the rapid
growth of population.
Lack of conscious Family Planning: people
feel that more children are wanted for
economic purposes. Further, blind faith in
the fate and the existence of the joint
family system induce thoughtlessness in
the matter of begetting children.
Government did not take much interest in
introducing family planning to slow
down the rapid growth of population.
 Major Demographic Trends in India

1. Growth Rate of Population: The

population of India grew at a slow rate
prior 1921. But its population has started
growing at a fantastic rate of speed
particularly after 1931.
2.Uneven Distribution of Population:
population in India is not distributed equaly
among all the states. On the contrary, we find
heavy concentration of people in some state
rather than in others.
As per 2011 Census, the state of Utter
Pradesh comes first with about 200 million
people followed by Maharashtra with 112
million, Bihar with103 million and so on.
It is significant to note that ten states account
for about 76.34% of the total population of
India.
3. Age Composition: of a population is the number
of people in different age groups in a country.
A person's age influence what he needs, buys, does,
and thinks.
Numbers and percentage of a population within the
children (young) adult (middle aged) and the aged
(old) groups determine population's social and
economic structure.
The age composition of people in any country is very
much related to components of population change
like fertility, mortality, age at marriage, migration,
etc.
• According to age composition population of a nation is grouped into
three broad groups:
• Children (0-14 years):
• a. They are economically unproductive.
• b. They need food, clothing, education and medical care.
• Adults (15-59 years):
• a. They are economically productive.
• b. They are biologically reproductive.
• c. They comprise the working population.
• Aged (60 years and above):
• a. They are mostly economically unproductive but some of them are
still economically productive.
• b. They need medical care.
 Sex Composition
sex ratio is one of the characteristics of the population. It has
an important bearing upon marriage rate, death rate and even
migration rate.
• The sex ratio is defined as “the number of females per
1,000 males.”
• In any study of population, analysis of the sex composition
or sex ratio play a vital role.
• Kerala and Pondicherry the only . States wherein women
outnumber men, and there are 1084 and 1038 women per
1000 men in 2011 in these states respectively.
 Density of Population
• In the Indian context, Density define as the
average number of persons living per
square Kilometer.
• The density of population was found to be
77 in 1901 and 324 in 2001 and it increased
to the record mark of 382 in 2011.
 Life expectancy
1. The average period that a person may expect to
live.
• Life expectancy or expectation of life at a given
age is the average number of years which a person
of that age may expect to live, according to the
mortality pattern prevalent in that country.
• Demographers consider it as one of the best
indicators of a country’s level of development and
the overall health status of its population.
• In 2011 the life expectancy in India increased to
65.96 years. That year, the life expectancy for
women was 67.74 years and for men 64.26 years.
 Dependency Ratio
• The proportion of persons above 65 Years of age and
children below 15 Years of age are considered to be
dependent on the economically.
• Productive age group [15-64 Years].
• The ratio of the combined age group 0-14 years plus 65
years and above to the 15-65 Years age group- is referred
to as the total dependency ratio. The dependency ratio
reflects the need for a society to provide for their younger
and older population groups.
• In terms of dependency ratio, we can also speak of young
age dependency ratio[0-14 Years];and old age dependency
ratio[65years and more]
 Population and Urbanization
• Growth of population in most of the
developing countries is closely associated
with growing urbanization.
• Urbanization in India is taking place at a
relatively greater speed in India.
• Three major cities of India- Mumbai,
Kolkata and Delhi- attained the status of
Mega-cities each with a population of more
than 10 million.
 Birth Rate & Death Rate
• Birth rate and Death rate are the important
components of population growth.
• The CHANGE IN POPULATION IS
CAUSED MAINLY either by an increase in
the birth- rate or by decrease in the death
rate. In other words, it is determined by two
factors, fertility and mortality.
 The causes of high birth rate
• Universality of marriage
• Early marriage
• Early puberty
• Low standard of living
• Low level of literacy
• Traditional customs and habits
• Absence of family planning habit etc.
 Declining death rate
• Mass control of diseases such as smallpox,
plague, cholera, malaria, etc
• Better health facilities
• Impact of national health programmes
• Improvements in food supply
• International aid in different ways
 Literacy Structure
• As far as the literacy structure of the
country is concerned, in 2011, on an
average, around 74.4% people are found to
be literate [82.14%males and 65.46 %
females]
• Kerala is a state wherein we find the
highest rate, that is 93.91% and Bihar has
the lowest one, that is, 63.82%.
 Occupational distribution of
population in India
• Occupational pattern in India is refers to- the proportion of
total working population engaged in different broad
sectors of the economy.
• Primary Sector- agriculture, mining, fishing, animal
husbandry and forestry.
• Secondary Sector- like manufacturing, construction,
electricity etc.
• Tertiary Sector- trade, transport, communications,
banking, insurance, personal services, and both
government and non- governmental services, etc.
 Effects of Overpopulation
• Population and poverty
• Unemployment and underemployment
• Low Per Capita Income
• Shortage of food
• Increased Burden of Social Overheads
• Population and labour Efficiency
• Population and the standared of living
• Population and pressure on land
• Slow EconomicDevelopment
 Measures for Controlling The
Rapid growth off population
• Indeed a serious socio-economic problem.
• It has adversely affected the progress of the economy and
the standard of living.
• Problem is urgent one and needs immediate solution.
• If this growth is not checked it is going to affect adversely
the various aspect of our life.
• It bring down per capita income, national income, standard
of living.
• It become difficult to face Challenges, of poverty,
unemployment and underemployment, basic needs
immorality etc..
• Overpopulation is related to the size of the
population and utilization of the countries
recourses.
• The problem should be tackled from both
the sides.
• Firstly production should be increased to
meet the needs of the people.
• Secondly size of the population should be
controlled and reduced.
 Measure to Increase Production
• Increase in Agricultural Production: use of irrigation,
high yielding seeds, rotation of crops, utilization of
chemicals, fertilizers, manures and such other means to be
adopted
• Increase in Industrial Production: it should be able to
increase production and at the same time provide job
facilities to a sizable number of people.
• Development of Trade and commerce: will contribute to
additional income and help the country to support the
growing population.
 Measures to control and Reduce
Population
• Family Planning Measures
• Providing Education Facility to the People
• Rise in the age of Marriage
• Improving Status of Women
• Propaganda in favor of small
• Reduction in Infant Mortality
• Provision of social security
• Internal Migration: unequal distribution of
population in different parts of the nation can be
dealt with if internal migration is allowed.
• It means people must be encouraged to move
from the densely populated areas towards the
thinly populated areas. But it is not, however
easy.
• As Adam smith: observes, of all shorts of
luggage, man is the most difficult to be
transported.”
•
Demographic Transitions
 Estimates of Most Populous Countries
in 2025
Twelve most popul ous countries in 2025 (estimated popul ations in milli ons)
Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio*
Indi a 358 976 1533 4.3
China 555 1255 1516 2.7
Pakistan 39 148 357 9.2
United States 159 274 347 2.2
Nigeria 33 122 338 10.2
Indonesia 80 207 318 4.0
Brazil 54 165 243 4.5
Bangladesh 42 124 218 5.2
Ethiopia 18 62 212 11.8
Iran 17 73 170 10.0
Mexico 28 96 154 5.5
Russia 102 147 114 1.1
_______________________________________________________________________
Source : Data fro m Wor ld Resource s 1996-97, Wor ld Resource s Institute.
*Ratio 2025 to 1950
Ratio* = 2025:1950
 Examples of Fertility Rates

Countries with highest and lowe st fertility ra tes

Highest Lowest (W. Europe) Lowest (E. Europe)
Total Fertility Rate 6.7 1.3 1.4
GNP/capita/yr $225 $19,000 $3,108
Life expectancy 47.6 yr 77.6 yr 68.9 yr
Birth rate 47.6/1000 9.7/1000 9.9/1000
Death ra te 17.6/1000 10.0/1000 13.0/1000
Infant morta lity ra te 120.0/1000 births 7.0/1000 births 22.0/1000 births
Annu al grow th ra te 2.9% 0.1% -0.4%

Source : Wo rld Resources Institute.

 Regional
Population
Distribution for
People Under
Age 15
Fertility Rates USA
 The Demographics of Life
Source
USA www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts. World
PDF

284.5 million Population, Mid 2001 6.1 billion

77 Population per square mile 118
15 Births per 1,000 people 22
9 Deaths per 1,000 people 9
2.1 Total fertility rate 2.8
21 % of pop under age 15 30
13 % of pop over age 65 7
 The Demographics of Life
USA World
49 Births per 1,000 women 50
aged 15-19
7.1 Infant deaths per 1,000 live 56
births
$29,240 GNP per capita (PPP) $6,300
995 kCal Avg daily per capita calories 441 kCal
from animal products
66 Grains fed to livestock as % 3
total grain consumption
 The Demographics of Life
USA World
19,674 kg Annual per capita carbon 4,157 kg
emissions
5 % energy consumption from 14
renewable sources
1 % female labor force in 52
agriculture
4 % male labor force in 46
agriculture
1,484 Tractor per 1,000 20
agricultural workers
 Top 10 Cities of the Year 1000

Name Population
1. Cordova, Spain 450,000
2. Kaifeng, China 400,000
3. Constantinople (Istanbul), Turkey 300,000
4. Angkor, Cambodia 200,000
5. Kyoto, Japan 175,000
6. Cairo, Egypt 135,000
7. Baghdad, Iraq 125,000
8. Nishapur (Neyshabur), Iran 125,000
9. Al-Hasa, Saudi Arabia 110,000
10. Patan (Anhilwara), India 100,000
 Estimates of Most Populous Countries
in 2025
Twelve most popul ous countries in 2025 (estimated popul ations in milli ons)
Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio*
Indi a 358 976 1533 4.3
China 555 1255 1516 2.7
Pakistan 39 148 357 9.2
United States 159 274 347 2.2
Nigeria 33 122 338 10.2
Indonesia 80 207 318 4.0
Brazil 54 165 243 4.5
Bangladesh 42 124 218 5.2
Ethiopia 18 62 212 11.8
Iran 17 73 170 10.0
Mexico 28 96 154 5.5
Russia 102 147 114 1.1
_______________________________________________________________________
Source : Data fro m Wor ld Resource s 1996-97, Wor ld Resource s Institute.
*Ratio 2025 to 1950
Ratio* = 2025:1950
 Top 10 Cities of the Year 1950

Name Population
1. New York, United States 12,463,000
2. London, United Kingdom 8,860,000
3. Tokyo, Japan 7,000,000
4. Paris, France 5,900,000
5. Shanghai, China 5,406,000
6. Moscow, Russia 5,100,000
7. Buenos Aires, Argentina 5,000,000
8. Chicago, United States 4,906,000
9. Essen, Germany 4,900,000
10. Calcutta, India 4,800,000
 Top 10 Cities of the Year 2000

Name Population
1. Tokyo, Japan 28,000,000
2. Mexico City, Mexico 18,100,000
3. Bombay, India 18,000,000
4. Sao Paulo, Brazil 17,700,000
5. New York, United States 16, 600,000
6. Shanghai, China 14,200,000
7. Lagos, Nigeria 13,500,000
8. Los Angeles, United State 13,100,000
9. Calcutta, India 12,900,000
10. Buenos Aires, Argentina 12,400,000
 How to achieve demographic
transition?

Family planning in Thailand - example of

success
Annual population growth dropped from
3.3% in 1972 to 1.2% in 1995. Mechai
Viravaidya, founder of Community-Based
Family Planning Service (CBFPS). Focused
on wants and needs of poor.
 How did Thailand Accomplish
Transition?
• Celebrity
• Humor/break taboos of contraception
• Condom give-a-ways
• Financial incentives
• Reduced infant mortality due to infectious
diseases - clean water supply
• Altered desired number of children (from 8
to 3)
 Contrast Thailand with China
In China, population control is a political outcome

Women must receive “birth coupons” prior to

conception

Mass murders of girl babies

Abortions (even at 9 months gestation)

Women of reproductive age examined and

monitored
 World Population
While demographic transition is occurring in many
places, the world population keeps increasing at a
rate of about 1.5% to 2% per year.
Doubli ng times at various compound interest ra tes
Annu al % Increase Doubli ng Time (years)
0.1 700
0.5 140
1.0 70
2.0 35
5.0 14
7.5 9
10.0 7
100.0 0.7

So the doubling rate

is between 35 and 46
years!
 Population Growth - Optimistic

Growing prosperity will reduce desire for large

families.

Technology/communication will spread

information faster, making transition more rapid
than it occurred for more developed countries.

Fertility rates are dropping and populations are

stabilizing (except in Africa).
 Population Growth - Pessimistic
Demographic trap:
poorer countries will
not become
developed enough for
birth rate to be
reduced, causing
population growth
rates to remain high.
Catastrophe will be
the only regulatory
control.
 World Population Growth

What will this mean for the planet?

Will we alter the human carrying capacity by our

impact?

What can we do to help stabilize the world’s

population?

What should we do?

 People Overpopulation Compared to
Consumption Overpopulation
To put these two in context, consider the following equation:
I=PxAxT
where
I = environmental impact
P = the population size
A = affluence (or consumption)
T = effects of the technology used
People overpopulation relates the first term - P

Consumption overpopulation relates to the last two

terms - A and T.
 Consumption Comparisons

One quarter of the global population living in developed

countries consumes for 80% of the world’s total energy.

USA alone accounts for 6% of the global population , but

consumes 30% of its resources.

20% of the global population consumes 70% of its material

resources and possesses 80% of the wealth. The majority
of this 20% in centered in Canada, USA, Saudi Arabia,
Australia, and Japan.
 Consumption Comparisons

A child born today in the United States will by the age of

75 years produce 52 tons of garbage, consume 10 million
gallons of water and use 5 times the energy of a child born
in the developing world.

The United States uses approximately one quarter of the

world's fossil fuels and is the largest contributor of carbon
dioxide, undesirable combustion products, and
chlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that contribute to
greenhouse warming and attack the Earth's ozone shield.
 Consumption Comparisons
Increasing the fuel mileage of cars by just 3 mpg would save
the same amount of oil that could be tapped from the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge over 10 years.

Every 20 minutes, the world adds another 3,500 human lives

but loses one or more entire species of animal or plant life - at
least 27,000 species per year.

Population is growing faster than food supplies in 64 of 105

developing countries. Overcultivation, primarily due to
population pressures, has degraded some 2 billion hectares of
arable land - an area the size of Canada and the United States
combined
 Consumption Comparisons
Globally, the demand for fresh water exceeds the
supply by 17 percent already. Two-thirds of the
world's population will experience some form of a
severe water shortage in the next 25 years.

By 2025, when world population is projected to

reach 8 billion, 48 countries with a total population
of 3 billion will face chronic water shortages. In 25
years, humankind could be using over 90 percent of
all available freshwater, leaving just 10 percent for
the rest of the world's plants and animals.
 What is the Carry Capacity of the
Planet for Humans?
Paul Erlich – Population Bomb, 1968 – predicted 2
billion. Now at 6 billion.

Julian Simon – there is no problem, more people

means more potential technology solutions.

Some estimate 20 billion will be maximum (at this

rate, in your lifetime!!!)

Solution = balance of population controls and

consumption controls.
What Should We Do?