• Without innovation, there is no progress • risk is inherent in engineering • relationship of safety to risk is an inverse one • factors of safety.’’ • unpredictably high loads or unaccountably weak construction material • Factors of safety of six or higher are the norm The engineer’s approach to risk • Risk as the Product of the Probability and Magnitude of Harm • A relatively slight harm that is highly likely might constitute a greater risk to more people than a relatively large harm that is far less likely. • Harm? Utilitarian and acceptable risk • An acceptable risk is one in which the product of the probability and magnitude of the harm is equaled or exceeded by the product of the probability and magnitude of the benefit, and there is no other option where the product of the probability and magnitude of the benefit is substantially greater. • risk–benefit analysis • If the total cost of preventing the loss of life is greater than the total cost of not preventing the deaths, then the current level of risk is acceptable • Expanding the Engineering Account of Risk: The Capabilities Approach to Identifying Harm and Benefit • focal consequences of a hazard • auxiliary consequences • overestimating the negative societal consequences of a hazard • challenge of quantification is difficult and complex, capabilities-based approach to risk analysis • Capabilities are distinct from utilities, • if an individual chooses A over B, then A has more utility than B. The Public’s approach to risk • Expert and Layperson: Differences in Factual Beliefs • people tend to overestimate the likelihood of low-probability risks ‘‘Risky’’ Situations and Acceptable Risk • One reason for classifying something as risky is that it is new and unfamiliar. For example SAFETY AND RISK • most important duties of an engineer is to ensure the safety of the people • produce products, structures, and processes that are safe • Implied warranty • very precise and a very vague safety • Relation between risk and safety • Voluntary vs. involuntary risk • Short-term vs. long-term consequences • Expected probability • Reversible effects • Threshold levels for risk • Delayed vs. immediate risk
• something is unsafe or risky often depends on
who is asked • Engineers and Safety • design must comply with the applicable laws • design must meet the standard of “accepted engineering practice • alternative designs must be explored • engineer must attempt to foresee potential misuses of the product • both prototypes and finished devices must be rigorously tested Designing for Safety • Define the problem • Generate several solutions • Analyze each solution • Test the solutions. • Select the best solution. • Implement the chosen solution • Safety is especially important in step 5, • Are minimizing risks and designing for safety always the more expensive alternatives? • Risk–Benefi t Analysis • one must consider who takes the risks and who reaps the benefits • “environmental racism,” ACCIDENTS • procedural, engineered, and systemic • Hurricane Katrina