Omori law

• What is aftershock
• The modified Omori law
• Omori law for foreshocks
• Aftershocks of aftershocks
• Physical aspects of temporal clustering
 Why study aftershocks?

Aftershock is a smaller earthquake that occurs after a previous large

earthquake, in the same area of the main shock. If an aftershock
larger than the main shock.

Aftershock is redesign as the main shock and

the original main shock is redesign An aftershock is a smaller
earthquake that occurs after a previous large earthquake, in the
same area of the main shock. If an aftershock is larger than the
main shock, the aftershock is redesignated as the main shock
and the original main shock is redesignated as a foreshock.
as a foreshock.
 Omori law: the modified Omori law

Omori law (Omori, 1894):

˙ C1
N (t) = ,
t
the modified Omori law (Utsu, 1961):
C1
N˙ (t) = ,
(C2 + t )
p

and its cumulative form (for p=1):

t æ t ö
N(t) = ò N (t)dt = C1 lnç + 1÷ ,
˙
0 è C2 ø
where t is time, N is earthquake count, C1, C2 and p are fitting
coefficients. The decay exponent, p, is commonly referred to as
the “p-value”.
 Omori law: Aftershocks around the world

1995 Mw 6.9 Kobe, Japan

duration

background
 Omori law: Aftershocks around the world

1979 Mw 6.6 Imperial Valley, CA

 Omori law: Aftershocks around the world

1989 Mw 7.1 Loma Prieta, CA

 Omori law: Aftershocks of small mainshocks
The traditional approach is to consider as mainshocks only
earthquakes that are large and infrequent. Recent studies show
that small-to-moderate earthquakes also enhance the seismicity
in their vicinity.

• Aftershocks of aftershocks also decay according to the modified Omori

law.
 Omori law: Aftershocks of small mainshocks

When analyzing spatio-temporal clustering with respect to small

earthquakes, it is useful to construct a composite catalog of
stacked aftershock sequences.

A recipe for analysing aftershocks of microearthquakes:

• We consider each earthquake as a potential mainshock, and for

each such mainshock compute its rupture dimensions.

• Calculate lag-times and distances between each potential

mainshock and all later earthquakes within the study area.

• Stack mainshock-aftershock pairs with an inter-event distance

that is less than twice the mainshock radius to get a “composite
catalog”.
 Omori law: Aftershocks of small mainshocks

• Micro-earthquakes during “background activity” also trigger

aftershocks that decay according to the modified Omori law.
 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

N˙ (Izmit + 10 days) - N˙ (Izmit - 100 days)

The Mw7.4 Izmit (Turkey): N˙ (1985 - 2002)

Mw5.8
Two weeks later
 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

N˙ (Izmit + 10 days) - N˙ (Izmit - 100 days)

N˙ (1985 - 2002)
cumulative Omori law

(See also Brodsky et al., 2000.)

• The decay of remote aftershocks follows the modified Omori law!

 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

The decay of M7.4 Izmit

aftershocks throughout Greece
is very similar to the decay of
M5.8 Athens aftershocks in
Athens area (just multiply the
vertical axis by 2).
 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

N˙ (Landers + 10 days) - N˙ (Landers - 100 days)

N˙ (1985 - 2002)

days since mainshock

 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

• The magnitude of static

stress changes decay as
disatnce-3.
• The magnitude of the peak
dynamic stress changes
decay as distance-1.
• At great distances from the
rupture, the peak dynamic
stresses are much larger
than the static stresss.

Figure from Kilb et al., 2000

 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

Instantaneous No triggering
triggering

Time Time
 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

Indeed, distant aftershocks are observed during the passage of

the seismic waves emitted from the mainshock rupture.

Izmit aftershocks in Greece.

Brodsky et al., 2000

 Omori law: Remote aftershocks

• Dynamic stress changes trigger aftershocks that rupture during

the passage of the seismic waves.

• But the vast majority aftershocks occur during the days, weeks
and months after the mainshock.

• Dynamic stress changes cannot trigger “delayed aftershocks”,

i.e. those aftreshocks that rupture long after the passage of the
seismic waves emitted by the mainshock.

• It is, therefore, unclear what gives rise to delayed aftershocks in

regions that are located very far from the mainshock.
 Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks

The mainshock index quantifies the degree to which the triggering

effect of a given aftershock is locally more important than the
mainshock. The mainshock index of event i is defined as:

• t is time measured from the mainshock time

• t is the lag time between the mainshock and aftershock I

• r is inter-event distance

• R is the rupture radius

Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks

Mainshock index
Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks

 in north1
i>1 is indicative of
seismicity rate increase in the
vicinity of the aftershock in
question, suggesting that the
triggering effect of that
aftershock in that region is
stronger than the triggering
effect of the mainshock and the
previous aftershocks.
 Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks

Comparison with a mainshock index of a sequence decaying

locally according to the Omori law:

which has the properties:

Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks

Comparison with theoretical 

• In conclusion, most (if
not all) Landers remote
aftershocks were not
directly triggered by
landers, but are
aftershocks of previous
aftershocks.
Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks

Hector Mine aftershocks

 Omori law: Aftershocks of aftershocks and the origin of remote
aftershocks
Note that:
• The sequence consists On the Roleof
of Multiple Interactions in Remote Aftershock Triggering: The Landers and the Hector Mine Case Studies

several sub-sequences, Hector Mine aftershocks

and the onset of activity
migrated southward.
• Many of the quakes that
occurred between 33N
and 33.5N are aftershocks
of a M4.3 that ruptured 10
minutes after the
mainshock.
• M4.37 that occurred 2.4
days after the mainshocks
Figure 8. Time-space diagram for the Hector Mine aftershocks in area South. The
triggered a burst of size of the circles is proportional to the earthquake magnitude. The vertical dashed
seismicity near latitude lines indicate the timing of the three largest earthquakes.

33N.
 Omori law: Foreshocks

• The increase in
foreshock rate too
follows an Omori law,
with t being the time to
the mainshock.

From Jones and Molnar, 1979

 Omori law: Physical aspects

Implications of static-kinetic friction on earthquake timing:

The “clock advance” does NOT depend on the time of the stress
application.
 Omori law: Physical aspects

Implications of the friction law on temporal clustering:

Can’t explain

Can explain
 Summary:
• Not only aftershocks of large quakes, but also aftershocks of
aftershocks decay according to the modified Omori law.

• Micro-earthquakes during “background activity” also trigger

aftershocks that decay according to the modified Omori law.

• The decay of remote aftershocks follows the modified Omori law.

• Most (if not all) Landers remote aftershocks were not directly
triggered by the Landers earthquake, but are aftershocks of
previous aftershocks.

• The increase in foreshock rate too follows an Omori law, with t

being the time to the mainshock.

• Stress perturbation applied on a population of faults governed by

static-kinetic friction cannot give rise to seismicity rate change.
 is a smaller earthquake that occurs after a
previous large earthquake, in the same area
of the main shock. If an aftershock is larger
than the main shock, the aftershock is
redesignated as the main shock and the
original main shock is redesignated as a
foreshock.
Further reading: