20 years of NCMRWF

and 50 years of NWP in India

A.K. Bohra

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

(Ministry of Earth Sciences)

International Conference on Progress in Weather & Climate Modeling over the Indian region
09 December 2008. ICISA Auditorium, NOIDA
 OUTLINE
• Introduction
• NWP in India: Pre-NCMRWF Era(1958-88)
- IMD
- IITM
- CAS, IIT Delhi
- Others
• Events Leading to Establishment of NCMRWF
• NWP at NCMRWF (1988 - 2008)
• Roadmap
• Conclusion
 The First NWP Attempt in India

• P. K. Das, 1957: Experiments with Numerical

Forecasting in India. 75th Anniversary of the Journal of
the Meteorological society of Japan, 275-279.
Non-divergent barotropic model applied to a depression in BoB

• P.K. Das and B. L. Bose, 1958: Numerical Prediction of

the Movement of Bay Depression. IJMG 509-515
Non-divergent barotropic model of Charney and Estoque’s baroclinic
model

Relaxation for barotropic and Fjortoft’s graphical technique for baroclinic model

Effort was special. Studies carried out without access to computers

 NWP at IMD: Phase-I(1969-76)
• Formal NWP Research Group formed(1969)

• Access to IBM1620 at Plan. Comm., ICL 1901 at IITD (1969-70) ;

IBM 360/44 system installed at IMD HQ (1973)

• q.g. barotropic model(‘70); mutli-level objective analysis (‘70-’72) ; 4-

layer q.g. model(‘73) ; data processing, limited graphics; 5-layer q.g.
model (‘75); O.I. Successive correction (‘75) ; Limited area multi-level
primitive equation model(‘76); Barotropic primitive equation model
used in t.c. studies; major comp. of NWP system (’74)

• R. K. Datta, H. S. Bedi, M. C. Sinha, Y. Ramanathan, B. M.

Chhabra, R. K. Bansal, T. K. Mukherjee, B. V. Singh,
Anand Prakash, V. Dayal, J. P. Agarwal, R.N. Gupta,
R. P. Saxena, Z. E. Sheikh, J. U. Hingorani

Motivator: P. Koteshwaram, DGM

 NWP at IMD: Phase-II (1981-88)
• New blood was infused(1981); Steps to acquire new HPC started-
Benchmarking in USA, Japan(1985-86)

• 10-level non-linear balance equation model for diagnostic studies over

tropics(1981-83); A-S scheme(1981-83)
• Limited area multi-level p.e. model(1984)

• Efforts to develop state-of-art LAM with physics started; Participation in

Development of LAM at FSU and transfer to IMD (1985-86); End-to-end
regional NWP system implemented on S-1000 system at NIC(1986-88)

• Familiarization with NMC R40 AGCM; off line testing (1985-87)

• NMC QLM for T.C. installed on S1000 system (1987)

R. K. Datta, M. C. Sinha, H. S. Bedi, A. V. R. K. Rao, A. K. Bohra,

B. K. Basu, R. K. Bansal, K. Prasad, J. U. Hingorani, Z. N. Begum
 NWP at IITM
• ITM/IITM established in 1962
• Prof. P. R. Pishority, the founder director and later, Dr. K. R. Saha, keen on
use of NWP for forecasting over Indian region
• IBM1620 installed at IMC (1964); TIFR CDC3600 access (1966)

• Prof. T. Murakami and Dr. F. Baer invited as specialists

• Many scientists sent for training in modeling, objective analysis, satellite
met., satellite inputs to numerical analysis and prediction to USA,
Japan(NMC, GFDL, JMA, FSU)

• A number of motivated scientists joined IITM during 1964-65:

K. R. Saha, J. Shukla, D. R. Sikka, Y. Ramanathan, C. M. Dixit, B. Rao,
A. Suryanarayana, G. C. Asnani, R. R. Kelkar, R. V. Godbole, S. Daggupatti

• Q.g. model applied to study baroclinic instability of summer monsoon flow;

Barotropic instability of monsoon flow; Adopted an AGCM in x-y plain along
80E to simulate summer monsoon flow over India;
 NWP at IITM
• 24-hour integration of non-div. model on TIFR system (1970)
• Development and testing of regional baro. p. e. model (1973); Global
barotropic vorticity eq. (1975); Application of multi-level q.g. model to
prediction of T. C. track errors (1976); Regional multi-level p.e. model
application to monsoon depression (1980)

• Objective analysis of the wind field, deriving weighting function, also

double Fourier series; Reverse balance equation; Analysis-prediction
experiments using MONEX data

• Diagnostic studies, Instability of monsoon flow, Energetics

K. R. Rao, S. Rajamanai, S. K. Mishra, R. N. Keshavmurthy,

Miss L. George, G. C. Asnani, S. T. Awade, S. S. Singh(1966-86)
 NWP at CAS, IIT Delhi

• CAS was formed in 1979 with support of IMD and MHRD

• LMD AGCM
• NRL LAM
• Model Diagnostics
• Storm Surge, Coastal Upwelling Model
• Mesoscale modeling; physical parameterization
• ECMWF T21 Model for Climate
• Regional Climate/climate Change studies
• Air Pollution; Boundary Layer

• Active Collaborations: CAS-LMD; CAS-Univ. of Reading; CAS-NCSU; CAS-NRL

• Major Centre for NWP Research by 1985; Many eminent visitors

M. P. Singh, P. C. Sinha, S. K. Dube, B. N. Goswami, U. C. Mohanty,
S. K. Dash, M. Lal, M. Sharan, N. Ramanathan, H. C. Upadhyaya and many others

• Trained a number of Young Scientists for Ph. D.

(Some of these joined NCMRWF and made significant contributions)
 NWP at Other Organizations

• SAC :Numerical modeling to study impact of satellite data

• Andhra University included NWP in M.Tech. Course

• PRL:simulations, instability, energetics studies

• CAOS at IISc(1982): Emphasis on analysis of model

products to understand monsoon variability

• IIT Kanpur: Numerical modeling; physical

parameterization
 Events Leading to Formation of NCMRWF
• Drought of 1982; Inclement weather of 1982-83; ICAR scientists underline
climate variation as cause; Govt. concerned about climate variations

• Yash Pal Committee formed (1983)

• IMD moved to DST(1985)
• ECMWF success inspired(1980-85)

• Detailed Project Report Prepared (June, 1987)

• Unique project- to specifically serve Indian farmers
• Government approved formation on 14-1-2008
• Supercomputer arrived in August 1988
• Initial recruitment of scientists in December 1988
• Supercomputer(Cray-X/MP-14) dedicated to nation on 25-3-1989

• Many contributed: Mr. Rajiv Gandhi, Dr. Gowariker, Dr. Kulshreshtha, Dr.
Datta, Dr. Sikka, Prof. Pishority, Prof. Krishnamurti, Prof. Shukla
 NCMRWF Project: Main Components

• NCMRWF: HPC constitutes the main infrastructural

facility

• AMFUs: With agricultural scientists, meteorologists,

agromet observatory and liaison with agriculturists,
either directly or through agricultural universities
and ICAR institutions

• Appropriate Telecommunication set-up

• Well defined linkages with IMD’s weather forecasting

organization and met. Telecom network.
 Objectives of NCMRWF
• Setting up of infrastructural facilities (supercomputer, FECs, telecom
network for agromet service; support to research groups to carry out
weather related research at NCMRWF)
• Development of operational global and regional numerical models for
weather forecasting with emphasis on medium range, taking
advantage of the work already done in India and abroad in this field
• Regular preparation of MRF(4-10 days in advance) for agroclimatic
zones on operational basis
• Promotion and co-ordination of R&D in MRF in the country
• Development of long-range weather forecast of rainfall up to a
season in advance
• Research in any other area of relevance to the above objectives
• The output products of NCMRWF, in the form of prognostic fields of
atmospheric variables, will be utilized by IMD for other areas of
weather forecasting, and by other organizations as well
 NWP Research Emphasis at NCMRWF
To carry out R&D of operational NWP models and
related research in the following:

Global modeling
Physical parameterization
Field experiments
Data analysis
Initialization and diagnostic studies
Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Modeling
Agro-met modeling

To impart training in NWP at national level

 Computing System
Cray XMP-14 (1988)
Cray XMP 216 (1992)
Anupam Alpha (1999)
Origin Servers (1999)
Cray SV1 (2001)
Param Padma (2006)
Cray X1e (2006)

The entire weather forecasting

package at a coarser resolution was
ported on all the computer systems
at the Centre. The T80 model code
was made to run on parallel
processors of Anupam-Alpha
system, by modifying the code using
the ANULIB routines.
A picture of Cray X1e
Issues on
Medium Range Weather Forecasting

 High Resolution Modeling

 Parameterization of Physical Processes
 Ensemble Predictions
 Data Assimilation Techniques
 Assimilation of all the available Data
 Diagnostics
NCMRWF produces a wide range of global and regional atmospheric
analyses and forecasts:

• Forecasts upto 7 days ahead, using the T254/L64 (50 km grid)

and T80/L18 (150km grid)

• Ensemble forecasts upto 7 days ahead, using the T80/L18 model with
8 members

• 3-D VAR assimilation system based atmospheric analyses.

• Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts for monsoon season based on

ensemble integration using the T80/L18 model.

• Meso-scale Forecasts upto 3 days ahead

. Ocean wave model for predicting ocean wave parameters upto 5 days
ahead

• The forecasts for 602 revenue districts are being generated. Digital
data for the same is being transferred to IMD in real time
NCMRWF attempts to enhance its data assimilation capability and
uses more and more data

600
GTS
500 FTP
volume(MB/day)

400

300

200

100

0
1997 2001 2003 2006 2008
Year

Volume of Observations received at NCMRWF

Global Analysis system
Optimum Interpolation (OI)- COLA/NCEP
3-D Variational (SSI)- NCEP
Assimilation of satellite data
TOVS, SSMI, MSMR, Quickscat etc
Direct Radiance data

Issues addressed:

Development of schemes to assimilate

Satellite data (derived products)
Assessment- Impact of New data on Analysis & Forecasts

Assessment of Model Bias on Analysis

Assimilation of Direct Radiance

Issue to be addressed:

4-dimensional Variational Analysis

Global Modeling
ECMWF (Cycle 30): T79L19
COLA R40L18
NCEP T80L18
NCMRWF T170L28
NCEP T254L64

Medium Range Weather Forecasts are

reasonably good over India.

Further Improvements will come by

increasing Resolution of Models

Improving Physics Packages

Improving Data Assimilation Schemes

& by utilizing more data

mm/day
Equitable Threat Scores of Rainfall Forecast using Local Closure
and Non-Local Closure schemes
 9

8 Evolution of the Day-03 forecast

RMSE of 850hPa winds against the
7
radiosonde observations over the
6 Indian region since January 1999.
RM SW VE

5 A considerable reduction in RMSE

4 is seen after the implementation of
3
the T254/L64 model in January
2007.
2

0
J u l-0 1

J u l-0 2

J u l-0 3

J u l-0 4

J u l-0 7
J an -9 9
Ju l-99
J an -0 0
Ju l-00
Ja n -0 1

J an -0 2

J an -0 5
Ju l-05
J an -0 6
Ju l-06
J an -0 7

J an -0 8
Ju l-08
Ja n -03

Ja n -04

Verification against radiosondes over Asian region RMSE of 850hPa forecast winds of
850 hPa Winds Jul 2008 NCMRWF, NCEP, ECMWF and UKMO
models against the radiosonde
8
observations over the Asian region for
7
the month of July 2008. The NCMRWF
6 operational forecasts compare well
NCMRWF
R MSEV

5 with those of the other centres and

NCEP
4
UKMO have demonstrated an acceptable level
3
ECMWF of forecast skill.
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5

Forecast Days
Mesoscale Modeling
MM5 Model
ETA Model
RSM
WRF

Mesoscale Model Data Assimilation over India -WRF3.0-

3DVAR at NCMRWF

- Computed new Back ground error using WRF3.0 forecast

at NCMRWF

WRF ARW (27Km) 38 levels (Run daily)

WRF NMM (27Km) 38 levels (For TCs only)

 26th July 2005 Mumbai Heavy Rainfall Episode

Santa Cruz 94cm

Bhandup 81cm
Dharvi 49cm
Vihar lake 104cm
Malabar Hill 7cm
Colaba 7cm

This torrential rain disrupted the life in the metropolis, caused large
number of deaths and according to early estimates, resulted in a loss of
about 15000 Crore Rupees.
Mesoscale Models
at 10km resolution
could bring out
the heavy rainfall
event
in Hindcast mode
Cyclone Nargis- Most of Models Predicted the
Cyclone Track Well
FDP- Tropical Cyclone

INDO-US joint Forecast Demonstration Project

(FDP) for Tropical Cyclone over Bay of Bengal (BOBTEX)

Active participation from NCEP and NCAR

(Aircraft; Data Management)

Formulated Science and Implementation Plans

NCMRWF leads the Modeling, Data Assimilation and Data

Management Aspects.
Obs. Aspects and Overall management is now with IMD

Pre-pilot phase during November 2008

NCMRWF Agro-Advisory Service
District Level Forecast: Current Status at NCMRWF

DMO (5 Days) Met. Obsn. From

~70 districts
T254L64 through GTS

Temperature (Trends) Temperature: Bias Removal

Rainfall (Threshold (Kalman Filter)
Values) Rainfall (Threshold Values)

District HQ forecast
Rainfall: Absolute values
Temperature : Trends

Graphical Interface www.ncmrwf.gov.in and IMD

Climate Prediction Program of NCMRWF
 A new perspective of Continuum of Prediction:
blurring distinction between Shorter-term and
Longer-term climate predictions.

An Initial-value problem. Knowledge of the

current state of Atmosphere, Oceans, Cryosphere,
and Land Surface

Climate Models: with the highest possible

Resolutions
Ability to relate the Structure, Parametrizations and Performance of models

Practical approach  Unified: Models aimed at different time-scales and phenomena

may have large commonality but place emphasis on different aspects of the system.

Models to include Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, evolving Vegetation, etc.

Theoretical basis of Predictability: what Predictions and what Techniques to attempt

 Ocean Modeling and Assimilation at NCMRWF
A sigma-coordinate ocean model developed at the INM, Russian
Academy of Sciences (Marchuk et al, 2005) is used for simulating the
annual cycle of thermo-hydrodynamics of the Indian Ocean north of 10S.

The model has a horizontal resolution of about 10km and has 21 layers in
the vertical. Realistic bathymetry and land geometry are used.

The annual cycle of temperature of the ocean surface as simulated by

the model.

The circle and triangle are for the Bay

of Bengal and the square for the
Central Arabian Sea. From
September to May, Arabian Sea and
Bay of Bengal show similarity. From
May to September the Arabian Sea
shows a cooling whereas the
northern Bay of Bengal shows clear
cyclic nature with distinct peaks of
temperature
WE ARE IN DIALOGUE WITH HYCOM
CONSORTIUM
Seasonal Predictions- Modeling Monsoon Variability SeaPrAS

IN-GLM1 Model has been integrated for 1982-2005 using

Initial conditions from April 15-20 May 1, 5, 10 & 15 each
year with Observed SST, & Climatological SST.

Inter-member Spread is quite large- Possibility of making

Probabilistic Predictions?

Model Climate compared to

Observation

Current Skill Level Worldwide for Precip is too

Low
 Modeling for Climate Change Studies

Recently, NCMRWF has initiated “Climate System Modeling”, to

address the issue of Climate Change, Vulnerability Assessment,
Adaptation and Mitigation.

Modeling of Climate for understanding the Science of Climate

Change with special emphasis for our Region is the basis of this
Program.

The Scientific basis for this Program comes from “Uncertainties in

the IPCC-AR4 Climate Simulations for the Indian Region”
 Forecast to different Sectors

Agriculture
Water
Power
Resources

NCMRWF Armed
Adventure Forces
Forecast

Shipping &
Tourism
Space Fisheries
Participation in Major
National / International Campaigns

•Ocean Field Experiments-

Experiments INDOEX, BOBMEX, ARMEX,CTCZ
•Mountain Meteorology Programme
•Future Satellites Planning
•Indian Climate Res. Programme
•MHA-US-AID Programme (Disaster Mitigation)
•THORPEX-developing
THORPEX capability to predict high impact weather
•Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) (CEOP
• CTCZ, STORM, PRWONAM, FDP
 National and International Partners
IMD COLA, USA
IITM, Pune NCEP, USA
IIT Delhi ECMWF, UK
IISc., Bangalore NCAR, USA
ICAR FSU, USA
Agri. Univ (30) MPI, Germany
Indian Navy Univ Maryland, USA
Indian Air Force MET Office, UK
Indian Army INM, Russia
SASE (DRDO) DMC, Nairobi, Kenya
SAC (DOS) Dept. of Meteorology, Sri Lanka
CMMACS SMRC, B’Desh
BIMSTEC countries
Recently MoES has signed an MOU with UK Met Office
NCMRWF to serve as lead Centre from Indian side
Achievements
 MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS

• Development of an end-to-end global NWP system

and uninterrupted delivery of operational Medium
Range Forecast since 1994

• Establishment of Agromet Units in each of the 127

agro-climatic zones

• Development of Statistical Interpretation based

location specific forecast system

• Through grants-in-aid programme, provided agromet

advisory service based on NCMRWF location
specific forecast

• Developed agromet service from scratch, transferred

it to IMD
 MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS

• Development of higher resolution models(T126/L28;

T170/L28)

• Improvements in the parameterization schemes

• Development of algorithms for assimilation of
Satellite data (ATOVS, MSMR, SSMI, QUIKSCAT, High
Resolution Winds from METOESAT, ACARS) and
Radar data in NCMRWF 3-D VAR

• Implementation of a new high resolution Global

Modeling (T254/L64) and corresponding latest Data
Assimilation System (SSI).

• Assimilation of satellite radiances

 MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS

• Implementation of an Ensemble Prediction System

• Implementation/Upgradation of Meso-scale
Modeling Systems

• Development of Extended-range/Seasonal
forecasting system for the monsoon season.

• Development of an Ocean state forecasting system.

Transfer of WAVEWATCH-III model to INCOIS
• Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble
Forecasting System

• Development of objective schemes for MRF of

monsoon onset, progress, and withdrawal.
 MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS
• Participation in major field experiments (LASPEX, INDOEX, ARMEX,
BOBMEX, CTCZ, STORM etc.)

• We served as data management centre of ARMEX

• Contributed to success of Mountain Meteorology Programme

• Steered the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Demonstration Project

• Participation in THORPEX, Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period

(CEOP)/GEWEX

• Conducted NWP training courses for officers from IAF and Indian Navy,
IMD, scientists from neighbouring countries

• Continued to provide products to various user agencies: Agriculture, IAF,

Indian Navy, Power Grid Corporation,
SASE, BARC, ISRO etc.

• Provided customized products on demand form various

sectors of society.
International Support

Professor J. Shukla
Professor T. N. Krishnamurti
Dr. Kamal Puri
Professor Sethu Raman
Professor Harsh Varadhan
Dr. E. Kalnay
Dr. L. Uccellini
Dr. M. Kanamitsu
Dr. Huang
Dr. Suranjana Saha
Dr. Stuart Bell
Dr. M. Moncrieff
Dr. E.K. Schneider
Dr. L. Marx
Dr. Paolino
Dr. O. Talagrand
Roadmap
Modeling

The Centre will Focus on seamless Numerical Prediction system

for all temporal and spatial scales

Global Weather & Climate Models

for Weather Prediction
for Extended-range & Seasonal prediction

Regional Models
for Short-Range Weather Predictions
for Dynamical Downscaling of Global Model Products

Very Fine-mesh Models

for understanding Cloud, Convection Processes
for Environmental Modeling & for City Scale Prediction
Data Assimilation
Maximize the observational data base at NCMRWF for
Data assimilation
Model verification
Continuous monitoring of observational data base
Feedback mechanism
Enhanced quality control of observations

Development of Techniques for Global &Regional Assimilation

Assimilation of All Satellite Data (including Direct Radiance)
Improved Assimilation of Conventional Data
Assimilation of Radar Data etc.
Ocean Data Assimilation (Argos etc.)

Current method of 3-D Var will be upgraded to 4-D Var

High-Resolution Regional Re-Analysis

Development of a restrospective regional reanalysis dataset over South Asia
 Motivation
Modeling and assimilation systems developed at NCMRWF to form
the core of IMD Operational Weather and Climate Information and
Forecasting Service

Develop and sustain the underpinning capability for an effective,

modern, and efficient NWP guidance to various socio-economic
sectors through IMD

Continuous R&D in modeling and assimilation for better

understanding and prediction capability

To optimize benefits from the ongoing modernization plan of IMD by

utilizing new data in NWP system to improve prediction further

To maximize use of Indian satellite data from ISRO new initiative

 To conclude..
• In the last few decades, NWP has become core of all weather
and climate system in developed parts of the world

• In two decades of its existence, the NCMRWF has grown to

become an indispensable service provider to the nation and is
also associated with international effort to improve prediction
capability over Asian monsoon region

• NCMRWF has the core competence in NWP

• Our vision is to become first choice for NWP guidance over

India and neighbouring region and contribute towards fast
development of economy of the region
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION