An Inconvenient Truth

Discussion
Get Fuzzy by Darby
Summary and
Comments
 Global Climate Change
• There is no longer any
scientific doubt that the
Earth’s average surface
temperature is increasing
–
– 1.3°F in last century
–
– Recent decades warmer than
any comparable period in last
400 years (possibly much
longer)


• Ocean temperature, ice and snow cover, and sea

level changes consistent with this global
warming
– Sea level up 7 inches in 20th century
–
Causes of Recent Climate
Change
• There is very high confidence that
human-generated increases in
greenhouse gas concentrations are
responsible for most of the global
warming observed during the past
50 years
•
• It is very unlikely that natural climate
variations alone, such as changes
in the brightness of the sun, have
produced this recent warming
 Invasive species, disease and
global warming
• Invasive species due to
land use change and
importation
• Not sure how invasive
plants and insects will
respond
 Reference: CO2 changes
during the ice ages
• A full understanding of why CO2 changes
in precisely the pattern that it does
during ice ages is elusive, but among the
most plausible explanations is that
increased received solar radiation in the
southern hemisphere due to changes in
Earth's orbital geometry warms the
southern ocean, releasing CO2 into the
atmosphere, which then leads to further
warming through an enhanced
greenhouse effect.
•
The Greenhouse Effect
 CO2 and Temperature
connections in the ice core
record
• Observed long-term relationship
between CO2 and
temperature in Antarctica
supports our understanding of
the warming impact of
increased CO2 concentrations
• Moreover, our knowledge of why
CO2 is changing now (fossil
fuel burning) is solid.
• Carbon cycle
– CO2 is a greenhouse gas
– Carbon cycle feedback is
positive (increasing temps
lead to increasing CO2 and
CH4)
– Future changes in CO2 will be
larger than we might
 Climate impacts on the
ocean conveyor
• Timing is uncertain.
• Younger Dryas 11,000 y.a.
– A large discharge of fresh
water into the North
Atlantic disrupted
currents, causing
significant regional
cooling.
• IPCC predicts a slowdown
in the circulation ~ 30%
by 2100
– Circulation modeling and
future inputs of melted
ice -not well
understood.
– Few scientists are willing
to completely rule out
the possibility of a more
 Ice-sheet driven sea level
rise
• Gore correctly asserted that melting
of Greenland or the West Antarctic
ice sheet would raise sea levels
20ft (6 meters).
– No time frame, very uncertain
– 20 ft
• about how much higher sea level was
around 125,000 years ago during the
last inter-glacial period.
– Then, global temperatures were only a
degree or two warmer than today
 Impact of sea ice retreat on
Polar bears
• Summer Arctic sea ice
shattered all records this
year for the minimum
extent.
• Polar bears
– depend on the sea ice
• hunt for seals in the spring
and summer
– disappearance ice
• likely to impact them
severely
– Studying the regional
populations of polar bears is
not easy and assessing their
prospects is tough.
• Arctic ecosystems are
changing on many different
levels.
– It may be the smaller and less
Impact of sea ice retreat on
Polar bears
• Summer Arctic sea ice shattered all records this year for the
minimum extent.
– This was partially related to wind patterns favorable to ice export
in the spring, but the long term trends are almost certainly
related to the ongoing and dramatic warming in the Arctic.
• Polar bears do indeed depend on the sea ice to hunt for seals in
the spring and summer, and so a disappearance of this ice is
likely to impact them severely.
• The specific anecdote referred to in the movie came from
observations of anomalous drownings of bears in 2004 and so
was accurate.
• However, studying the regional populations of polar bears is not
easy and assessing their prospects is tough.
– In the best observed populations such as in western Hudson Bay (
Stirling and Parkinson, 2006), female polar bear weight is going
down as the sea ice retreats over the last 25 years, and the
FWS is considering an endangered species listing.
– However, it should be stated that in most of the discussions about
polar bears, they are used as a representative species.
• Take home message: Arctic ecosystems are
changing on many different levels. In the end,
it may be the smaller and less photogenic
elements that have the biggest impact.
 Pacific island nations
needing to evacuate
• Much of Tuvalu
– is only a few feet above
sea level
– With more sea level rise
• increasing brine in
groundwater
• increasing damage and
coastal erosion from
tides and storm surges
• Government of Tuvalu
asked New Zealand to be
ready to evacuate
islanders
• In the movie: "That's why
the citizens of these
 Kilimanjaro
• Ongoing discussion in the Feb 1993
literature:
– Is retreat of ice on
Kilimanjaro related to the
direct effects of climate
change?
• warming atmospheric
temperatures
– Or indirect effects of
climate change
• altered patterns of
humidity, cloud Feb 2000
cover, and
precipitation
influencing
Kilimanjaro's ice
mass
• Take home message
– (a) ice field that we know
has existed for at least
the past 12,000 years is
shrinking http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/kilimanjaro_etm_93_00.jpg
 Drying up of Lake Chad

• Extremes
– Droughts
– Flooding
• Lake Chad Change http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=479576&in_page_id=1811

– reduction of rainfall across entire Sahel from

1950s to 1980s
– rainfall today still substantially below high point
50 years ago
– Other factors
• Irrigation and upstream water use.
• Substantial evidence that at least a portion of this
drying out is human-caused.
• Indian Ocean changes in sea surface temperature
• Increase in atmospheric aerosols in the Northern
hemisphere.
 Drying up of Lake Chad
• Gore uses this example to illustrate that there
are droughts in some regions even while
other areas are flooding.
• Unfortunately this is what models suggest.
• The dominant cause
– reduction of rainfall across entire Sahel from
1950s to 1980s
– rainfall today still substantially below high point
50 years ago
– Other factors
• Irrigation and upstream water use.
• Substantial evidence that at least a portion of this
drying out is human-caused.
• Indian Ocean changes in sea surface temperature
• Increase in atmospheric aerosols in the Northern
hemisphere.
 Hurricane Katrina and
global warming
• Katrina is used
– Destructive power of hurricanes
– Cope with natural disaster
– Ex. of what could get worse in a
warmer world.
• Nowhere does Gore state that
Katrina was caused by global
warming. http://geology.com/news/images/hurricane-katrina-satellite-image.jpg

– Individual hurricanes cannot be

attributed to global warming,
but the statistics of hurricanes,
in particular the maximum
intensities attained by storms,
may be.
 Impact of ocean warming
on coral reefs
• Stress Factors
– Overfishing
– deliberate destruction
– water pollution
– sea level rise
– ocean acidification
http://web.syr.edu/~tjconena/coral_reefs.htm
– warming oceans.
– That rising temperatures and other factors cause
coral bleaching is true.
• Bleaching episodes happen when the coral is
under stress, and many examples have been
linked to anomalously warm ocean
temperatures
What process could most likely change the
climate?

More moisture in
the air
Warmer climate More evaporation at the equator

Circulation slows down

More moisture can
and changes be held in the air

Water does not sink in the northern latitudes

Melting Glaciers
Ocean is not as
salty and dense More rain at
higher
More freshwater latitudes
in the ocean
Can giant hurricanes exist all around
the world like in the Day After
Tomorrow?

• Clusters of thunderstorms cannot

merge together to form a
continent-scale blizzard with a calm
eye over land.
• Huge storms with calm eyes happen
over the oceans not over land.
– Hurricanes or Tropical Storms
• Require that the core of the storm be
over warm ocean water
Photo: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Arch...
 Three Glaciers Retreating

Denver Glacier in Recession,

Alaska, Brit ish Colum bia

1912 • Source:
1938 C.L. Andrews. 1912, 1938. Denver
Glacier: From the Glacier Photograph Collection
. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data
Center. Digital Media; Marion T. Millett. 1958.
Denver Glacier: From the
Glacier Photograph Collection . Boulder, CO:
National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital
Media.
Temperature Analysis

• “Warming of the climate system

is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations of
increases in global average air
and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global
average sea level” (IPCC report
2007).
•
Contributions to Sea Level
Rise
Long-term Changes in
Climate
• Long-term changes are observed at:
– Continental Scales
– Regional Scales
– Ocean basin Scales
• These changes include:
– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice
– Widespread changes in precipitation
amounts
– Ocean salinity
– Wind patterns
– Aspects of extreme weather
• Droughts
• Heavy precipitation
• Heat waves
• Intensity of tropical cyclones
 - 2007 IPCC report
What can change our
climate?
• Changes in these factors alter the
energy balance of the climate
system:
– Solar radiation
– Land surface properties
– The atmospheric abundance of
greenhouse gases and aerosols
–
–
How do we know that this
is not a normal cycle?
We use past climate data and
compare influencing factors.
 How do we know about past
climates?
• Tree Rings – Growth is controlled by temperature,
precipitation and sunlight
• Pollens – give a good indication of what was living
at the time indicating a temperature range
• Ice and sea bed cores – Gasses in bubbles, dust,
isotopes, accumulation rate
• The fossil record
• Coral beds


Note: Uncertainties generally increase with time



into the past due to increasingly limited spatial

coverage.
•
What has Changed and
what has Not Changed?
 Aspects of climate that have NOT
changed


• Day night temperature differences have remained

constant. Both the maximum and minimum
temperatures have increased at the same rate.
The trends are highly variable from one region
to another.
• Antarctic sea ice extent continues to show inter-
annual variability and localized changes but no
statistically significant average trends,
consistent with the lack of warming reflected in
atmospheric temperatures averaged across the
region.
• There is insufficient evidence to determine
whether trends exist in
– Meridional overturning circulation of the global ocean
– Small scale phenomena
• Tornadoes
• Hail
• Lightning
• Dust-storms
Consequences of
Climate Change

Ward Hunt Ice Shelf, 2002

 Larsen B ice shelf,
Muir Inlet, Alaska Antarctica

1941 Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctica

ca. 100 x 80 miles

Feb. 17, 2002 Mar. 5, 2002

2004

National Snow and Ice data center

http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/gpd_run_pairs.pl

Glacier Bay National Park and

Preserve
 Arctic Polar Ice Cap
1979 2003

• Since 1979, the size of the summer

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
polar ice cap has
shrunk more than 20 percent.
• On Sept. 21, 2005, sea ice extent dropped to 2.05 million
sq. miles, the lowest extent yet recorded in the satellite
record.
• This loss is twice the size of Texas.
NASA
 Priority Actions for Consumers
• Vote!
• Transportation
– Choose a place to live that
reduces the need to drive.
– Think twice before purchasing
another car.
– Choose a fuel efficient, low
polluting car.
– Set concrete goals for reducing
your travel.
– Whenever practical walk,
bicycle or take public
transportation
– Brower, 1999
Priority Actions for Consumers

• Food
– Eat less meat.
– Buy certified organic produce.
• Household Operations
– Choose your home carefully.
– Reduce the environmental costs of
 heating and hot water.
– Install efficient lighting and appliances
– Choose an electricity supplier offering
renewable energy.
• Policy
– Vote, write letters, attend rallies, call your
representatives and express your views.
– Brower, 1999
Thank you!