Vietnam and

the South China Sea

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Vietnam Update 2018
co-sponsored by
Department of Political and Social Change and Strategic and Defense Studies Centre,
Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific,
The Australian National University and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,
Canberra, A.C.T., November 13, 2017.
 Tasking by the Organisers
1. What strategies has Vietnam pursued in the face of
territorial disputes and wider strategic and security
partnerships?
2. How has Vietnam worked with neighbouring
countries to engage in broader regional and global
alliances?
3. How have broader strategic alliances impacted on
Vietnam at home?
 Outline
1. Historical overview - Vietnam and the East Sea
2. Vietnam’s political-diplomatic strategies
3. Strategic and comprehensive partnerships with the major
powers
4. Self-help: armed forces modernization
5. Vietnam’s multilateral diplomacy with China, Southeast
Asian states, and the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations
 Part 1
Historical Overview
Vietnam and the East Sea
 Vietnam and the East Sea
• Pre-colonial era, 17th-19th Centuries
• Nguyen Lords, Nguyen Dynasty
• Hoang Sa Brigade, Royal Navy, North Sea Brigade

• Colonial Era, 1884-1954

• Kingdom of An Nam – French Protectorate
• Settlement of the Paracel and Spratly islands
• Post-Colonial Era, 1954-75
• Republic of Vietnam administers Paracels (1954-74)
• Communist Special Forces occupy Spratlys (1975)
 Key Turning Points

China-
Vietnam
China attacks clash near
Vietnamese Vanguard
Navy near Reef, 1992
China seizes
Johnson and 1994
western
Paracels, South reef
January 1974 March 1988
 Vietnamese Occupied Features

Vietnam erected eighteen platforms or technical

Vietnam occupies 21 land features, 9 are support services structures (nhà giàn dịch vụ kỹ
rocks and 12 are low tide elevations thuật) in waters near Vanguard Bank (Tư Chính)
Chiến lược Biển Việt Nam đến năm 2020 (2007)"

Block 118 Blue

Whale ExxonMobil

Block 128 ONGC

(India)

Block 136-03 Repsol

(Spain)
 Part 2
Vietnam’s
Political-Diplomatic Strategies
Vietnam’s 4 Political-Diplomatic Strategies
Independence and Self-
reliance
Diversification and
Multilateralization

Cooperation and Struggle

Active, Proactive International

Integration
 Part 3
Strategic and Comprehensive
Partnerships with the Major Powers
Strategic and Comprehensive* Partners
Russia
2001

USA, Japan
2013* Viet 2006
Nam

China India
2008 2007
 Part 4
Self-help:
Armed Forces Modernization
Gradual Force Modernisation

Su-30 MKK
Dutch Sigma-class
corvette on order

S-300 PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) Gepard-class Guided Missile

Stealth Frigates
Gradual Force Modernisation

Svetlyak-class Fast Attack Craft

Bastion Anti-Ship Missile

Extended Range
Artillery Munitions
Gradual Force Modernisation

Vietnam has taken delivery

of six Varshavyanka or
enhanced Kilo-class
conventional submarines
 Part 5
Vietnam’s Multilateral Diplomacy
with China, Southeast Asian states,
and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN)
 Vietnam and China
• 2007 China extends annual unilateral fishing ban
• 2008 China pressures foreign oil companies operating in Vietnam
• 2009 China officially tables “nine dash line map” claiming sovereignty
over land features and adjacent waters in South China Sea
• Cable cutting incidents involving oil exploration vessels in Vietnam’s
Exclusive Economic Zone
• Agreement on Basic Principles Guiding the Settlement of Maritime-
Related Issues(October 2011)
• May-June 2004 Hai Yang Shi You 981 confrontation
 Vietnam and Southeast Asia

• Thailand (June 2013) • Promote bilateral

• Indonesia (June 2013) defence
• Singapore (September 2013) cooperation
• Common position
• Malaysia (August 2015)
on the South
• The Philippines (2015) China Sea
Vietnam & ASEAN After Arbitral Tribunal Award
• 2013 Philippines unilaterally files claim under Annex VII of uNCLOS
• China attacks process, declines to participate
• Vietnam elects to become observer
• July 12, 2016 Arbitral Tribunal issues Award
• Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam only ASEAN members to mention AT
• Philippine President Duterte suspends implementation
• 49th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, Laos (24-25 July 2016)
• ASEAN-China Senior Officials Meeting
• Guidelines for hotline, CUES for South China Sea, complete draft COC by mid-
2017
 Conclusion
Single Draft South China Sea
Code of Conduct Negotiating Text
 Country Unilateral* Joint** Total
Brunei (BN) 3 18 21
Cambodia (CA) 2 17 19
China (CH) 16 20 36
Indonesia (ID) 10 19 29
Laos 0 0 0
Malaysia (MY) 19 6 25
Myanmar (MM) 0 0 0
Philippines (PH) 6 17 23
Singapore (SG) 3 18 21
Thailand (TH) 10 6 16
Vietnam (VN) 12 14 26
Sub-total 81 135 216
 Single Draft Negotiating Text
• Divided into three parts:
• Part 1 - Preambular
• Part 2 - General Provisions
• Part 3 - Final Clauses
• Vietnam a major contributor of Part 1
• Offered definitions of the following terms: contracting states, third
states, militarize, relevant feature in the South China Sea,
uninhabited features, and self-restraint. And defined the COC’s
area of coverage
 Single Draft Negotiating Text
• Part 2 General Provisions, Section 2.c
• Option 1 Philippines
• Option 2 Indonesia and Singapore
• Option 3 China
• Cooperation on fishing, environmental protection, natural resource
• Option 4 Cambodia
• Vietnam submitted a proposal to replace all four options
• Twenty-one proposals submitted
 Vietnam’s Seven “Shall not do…”
1. Resort to threat or use of force, coercive actions or any
other cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and
punishment against persons from other Contracting States
while conducting law enforcement activities;
2. Conduct construction of any artificial island in the South
China Sea;
3. Initiate, participating in, or allow the use of its territories
for any policy or activity that would complicate or escalate
disputes and affect peace and stability;
 Vietnam’s Seven “Shall not do…”
4. Militarize occupied features in the South China Sea;
5. Blockade vessels carrying provisions or personnel for
rotation;
6. Declare an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the
South China Sea;
7. Conduct simulated attacks that aim guns, missile launches,
inter alia, at targets of other countries.
 Six Major Issues That Need to be Resolved
1. Geographic scope and disputed areas
2. Military activities, exercises, and militarization
3. Cooperation among Maritime Law Enforcement
Agencies
4. Dispute resolution
5. Legal status of the Code of Conduct
6. Role of third parties
 Vietnam and
the South China Sea

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Vietnam Update 2018
co-sponsored by
Department of Political and Social Change and Strategic and Defense Studies Centre,
Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific,
The Australian National University and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,
Canberra, A.C.T., November 13, 2017.