ALINE APRILLE CAPUCHINO-MENDEZ What is Capital Asset Pricing Model • The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a model that describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets, particularly stocks. • CAPM is widely used throughout finance for the pricing of risky securities, generating expected returns for assets given the risk of those assets and calculating costs of capital. Equity and Debt • In equity investing, the required rate of return is used in various calculations. • For example, the dividend discount model uses the RRR to discount the periodic payments and calculate the value of the stock. Finding the required rate of return can be done by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Required Return On A Stock Has Two Components
• a compensation for the expected loss of purchasing power
• and an extra compensation for bearing risk. The CAPM will require that you find certain inputs:
the risk-free rate (RFR),
the stock's beta,
the expected market return.
the market risk premium
• Start with an estimate of the risk- free rate.
• Next, take the expected market risk premium
for the stock which can have a wide range of estimates.
• Lastly, you can use the beta of the
stock. The general idea behind CAPM is that investors need to be compensated in two ways:
time value of money
risk Time Value • The time value of money is represented by the risk-free (rf) rate in the formula and compensates the investors for placing money in any investment over a period of time. The risk-free rate is customarily the yield on government bonds like BSP Treasuries. Risk • The other half of the CAPM formula represents risk and calculates the amount of compensation the investor needs for taking on additional risk. This is calculated by taking a risk measure (beta) that compares the returns of the asset to the market over a period of time and to the market premium (Rm-rf): the return of the market in excess of the risk-free rate. The Formula The standard formula remains the CAPM, which describes the relationship between risk and expected return of an asset given its risk is as follows: _ _ Ri= Rf + Ba (Rm – Rf)
Ri =Rf + MRP x βi Risk-Free Rate + (Beta X Market Risk Premium) Where:
r f= risk free rate
Ba = Beta of the security
rm = Expected market return
The CAPM says that if we’re going to invest in the shares of any company we should require return for two reasons • One, because we want to be compensated for our expected loss of purchasing power; that’s the risk-free rate, and, as the name suggests, it is not related to risk. • Two, because when we buy equity the return is not guaranteed and therefore we bear some risk. Birth of a Model The capital asset pricing model was the work of financial economist (and later, Nobel laureate in economics) William Sharpe, set out in his 1970 book "Portfolio Theory and Capital Markets." His model starts with the idea that individual investment contains two types of risk: • Systematic Risk – These are market risks that cannot be diversified away. Interest rates, recessions and wars are examples of systematic risks. • Unsystematic Risk – Also known as "specific risk," this risk is specific to individual stocks and can be diversified away as the investor increases the number of stocks in his or her portfolio. In more technical terms, it represents the component of a stock's return that is not correlated with general market moves. CAPM's starting point is the risk-free rate – typically a 10- year government bond yield. To this is added a premium that equity investors demand to compensate them for the extra risk they accept. This equity market premium consists of the expected return from the market as a whole less the risk-free rate of return. The equity risk premium is multiplied by a coefficient that Sharpe called "beta." Beta coefficient Is a statistic which measures the systematic risk of a particular investment relative to the broad market. The beta efficient is more than 1 means that the investment carries more systematic risk than the market and that of less 1 means less systematic risk that broad market. Equity Risk Premium Equals the rate of return on the broad market such as S&P 500 minus the risk rate. It is an estimate of the reward the equity investors require to take the systematic risk inherent in a portfolio of securities representative of the equity market. Example Jollibee Food Corporation (PSEi:JFC) has a beta coefficient of .899. Estimate the cost of equity if the risk free rate is 3.6 % and return on the broad market index is 2.19% Solution CAPM Ri =Rf + MRP x βi Risk-Free Rate + (Beta X Market Risk Premium) Cost equity = risk free rate + beta coefficient x equity premium Cost equity = risk free rate + beta coefficient x (broad market return – risk free rate) Cost of equity JFC = 3.6% +(.899)(7.27%) Cost of equity JFC =10.13573% or 10..14% Example of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Using the CAPM model and the following assumptions, we can compute the expected return for a stock: • The risk-free rate is 3.6% and the beta (risk measure) of a stock is .899 The expected market return over the period is 10%, so that means that the market risk premium is 3.67% (7.27% - 3.6%) after subtracting the risk-free rate from the expected market return. Plugging in the preceding values into the CAPM formula above, we get an expected return of 3.42% for the stock: • = 3.6% + .899 x (7.27%-3.6%) • =3.6% + .899 x 3.67% • =3.41810588 or 3.42% Add a Slide Title - 5 References • Analysis of investments and management of portfolio , Brown and Reilly • The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Overview www.investopedia.com/articles/06/capm.asp#ixzz5FzwIAljQ • The essential financial toolkit, Javier Estrada • Required Rate Of Return (RRR) www.investopedia.com/terms/r/requiredrateofreturn.asp#ixzz5GKN4raOv • www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sdds/tbillsdds.htm • www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/darasets/cntryprem.xls