| |






 
| 







 To maintain a stable population, every

individual needs someone to take their
place when they die
½




0
 ëomen can have
kids.
 Men can¶t.
 3 




ach woman needs to have 2 kids, one to
replace her, and one to replace the man.
 Since men can¶t reproduce, the number of
women needs to remain constant for a population
to remain stable.
u
 u
 3 
3 
  
 
 Measures, in a given population, the average
number of children born per woman over her
lifetime
 Indicates if that population is growing or
shrinking
 Slightly more boys tend to be born than girls,
therefore it takes slightly more than 2 kids per
woman to ensure that enough girls are born to
replace their mothers.
 3


  

3


 Ôssuming no child mortality or disaster, a total
fertility rate of 2.1 will be enough to keep a
population stable
 



 !





 ëar, famine, disease, and child mortality mean

that more children need to be born in some
places, to give a better chance of some
surviving.
M "

3

##
w

 
 
 






$




 ë 

 
 


 

%

 Since every woman needs to have 2 kids to

maintain a stable population, if 3 women don¶t
have any, then one woman needs to have 8!
 £

&



 Ô sub-replacement TFR means that
succeeding generations will shrink
exponentially
 


 
 

 |layed out over time, there will be fewer and fewer

young workers to support the increasing number of
retiring workers.
 Leading to economic collapse and societal
breakdown
 £ &

"
 Ynly 5 of the world¶s 38 developed countries
have a TFR at or above replacement.
›uwait 2.76 Denmark 1.74 Germany 1.41
Israel 2.75 Finland 1.73 Ôustria 1.39
Qatar 2.45 Barbados 1.68 Greece 1.37
United Ôrab
mirates 2.42 Sweden 1.67 Ôndorra 1.33
New Zealand 2.1 Netherlands 1.66 Italy 1.31
United States 2.05 United ›ingdom 1.66 Spain 1.31
France 1.98 Belgium 1.65 Slovenia 1.28
Brunei 1.91 Canada 1.58 Czech Republic 1.24
Iceland 1.9 Liechtenstein 1.52 Japan 1.21
Ireland 1.85 Malta 1.51 ›orea, South 1.21
Ôustralia 1.78 |ortugal 1.49 Singapore 1.09
Norway 1.78 Cyprus 1.45 Hong ›ong 1.02
Luxembourg 1.78 Switzerland 1.45
 3 
 

%

 These societies are facing a very

real danger: extinction.
 
 r


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