What is happening to the

world’s climate?
an update from the IPCC Asessement Report 5
(WGI WGII WGIII)

Giovanni Tapang, PhD

Professor
National Institute of Physics

Samahan ng Nagtataguyod ng Agham at Teknolohiya para sa Sambayanan

(Advocates of Science and Technology for the People AGHAM)
Climate and weather
• The weather is the • The climate is
particular state of the long term
the atmosphere in a weather trend of
certain region at a a certain region
certain time over a time
• Ex. Rainy/Maulan, period
Warm/mainit, • Ex. Tropical
Windy/mahangin,
Cloudy/maulap
Climate Change:Global warming
• Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses
gases (UNFCCC)

Projections of Surface Temperature Change

 The Changing Climate

from the World Meteorogical

Organization [WMO] and the IPCC AR5 WGI
 Greenhouse Effect
 Greenhouse
gases (GHGs)
trap heat from
the sun to
keep the Earth
warm.
`  Increasing
levels of GHGs
leads to abrupt
changes in
climate
Last 3 years were top 3 warmest years
(2017)
• 1.1 degrees C above
pre-industrial levels
[0.46 degrees C
above 1981-2010
average]

• 2016 on top [0.56 deg

C above average]

• World’s nine warmest

years have occurred
since 2005
Last 3 years were top 3 warmest years

• 1.1 degrees C above

pre-industrial levels
[0.46 degrees C
above 1981-2010
average]

• 2016 on top [0.56 deg

C above average]

• World’s nine warmest

years have occurred
since 2005
Last 3 years were top 3
warmest years1.1 degrees C above
•
pre-industrial levels
[0.46 degrees C
above 1981-2010
average]

• 2016 on top [0.56 deg

C above average]

• World’s nine warmest

years have occurred
since 2005
 Increasing levels of greenhouse gases

• Globally averaged mole fraction (measure of concentration), from 1984 to 2016, of CO2 in
parts per million (left), CH4 in parts per billion (middle) and N2O in parts per billion (right).

• In 2016, GHG concentrations reached new highs with CO2 at 403.3±0.1 parts per million
(ppm), CH4 at 1853±2 parts per billion (ppb) and N2O at 328.9±0.1 ppb
 Increasing levels of greenhouse gases

• Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 over the past 55 million years are generated from
proxy data
The ocean is warming and becoming acidic

• Global sea-surface
temperatures in
2017 were
somewhat below the
levels of 2015 and
2016, but still ranked
as the third warmest
on record.
The ocean is warming and becoming acidic

• Increasing acidity
due to absorbed
carbon dioxide

• Ocean acidification
does not affect
systems in isolation
Sea-level is rising
 Greenhouse Gases

 Carbon dioxide CO2 - second most common GHG. makes up about 25% of the natural
greenhouse effect. Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement
manufacturing, deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally through
photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires.

 Methane CH4 - third most common GHG ; Oil and gas production, coal mining, rice
paddies, dams, landfills. Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion.

 Nitrous oxide N2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood, fertilizers, coal mining. Also
occurs naturally.

 OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF6, Perfluocarbons PFCs, Hydroflurocarbons

HFCs
 Global climate is changing and that human activity
contributes significantly to this trend (WMO)

• Human influence on the

climate system is clear.
This is evident from the
increasing greenhouse
gas concentrations in
the atmosphere,
positive radiative
forcing, observed
warming, and
understanding of the
climate system
Climate Change and Health
Climate and weather affect the
fundamental determinants of
health: Air quality, fresh water
availability, food, shelter, disease
Vector-borne diseases such as
malaria and dengue are strongly
affected by climate
WHO: In the absence of changes in
other determinants, climate change
could expose an additional 2 billion
people to dengue transmission by
the 2080s

Source. Hales S et al. Lancet (online) 6 August 2002.

http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf
Estimated mortality attributable to
climate change
Children and Climate Change
 More than 46% of the world's
population is now younger than 25
years old.
Source: UNICEF UK Climate Change Report 2008
 Approximately 175 million children
will be affected by climate change
induced natural disasters every year
over the next decade. This is 50
million more than during the ten
years to 2005.
Source: Legacy of Disasters; Children Bear the Brunt of
Climate Warming, Save the Children UK 2007
 Diarrhoea remains one of the biggest
killers of children
– Higher temperatures and too much or
too little water can facilitate
transmission of this disease
source: WHO Protecting Health from Climate Change 2009
Lower income countries more
vulnerable to climate change effects
Historical context

 Unprecedented rise in
GHG production and
concentration on the
onset of capitalist system
 Industrial revolutionServices:

 Modern technology
 Intensive use of
machines and fossil fuels
for transportation, trade
and energy.
 Reflects problem of
overproduction
Who is the largest historical GHG
emitter?
CO2 emissions from industry
Largest industrial CO2 emitters. Facilities emitting more than 100 000 tonnes of CO2 each year. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov
2009
The effect on the world and on different sectors
and systems

from the WMO and the IPCC AR4/AR5 WGII

(Assessing and Managing the Risks of Climate Change)
Recent trends in extreme events are consistent with the
expected impacts of climate change
• Human influence has very likely contributed
to global changes in the frequency and
intensity of daily temperature extremes since
the mid-20th century

• Human influence likely more than doubled the

probably of heatwaves occurring in some
locations. It is also likely that human-induced
climate change has affected the global water
cycle since 1960.

• A lack of longer term data makes it difficult to

evaluate trends in the intensity, frequency
and duration of cyclones, hurricanes and
typhoons.
Recent trends in extreme events are consistent with the
expected impacts of climate change
• The first 12 years of the 21st century have
seen record temperatures, Arctic ice melt,
exceptional heat waves in Western Europe
(2003) and Russia (2010), the most costly
ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005), and
major floods in many parts of the world,
including in Pakistan in 2010, which affected
more than twenty million people.

• Many other extremes were also experienced

elsewhere in the world. The year 2013 has
been marked by extreme heat in Australia,
drought in Brazil and the United States, and
record summer heat in parts of China.
DANGEROUS AREAS DUE TO CLIMATE
CHANGE....
...INHABITED BY MANY PEOPLE....
WITH LIMITED OR NO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
FOR CLIMATE CHANGE...
...ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS
TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS.
...ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE REGIONS
TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS.
Philippines is disaster prone
• 2012: Typhoon Pablo

• 2011: Sendong, Quiel, Juan, Pedring, drought

• 2010: 202 disasters affecting 6.7 M people, drought

• 2009: 191 disasters and 13.6 M affected (Pepeng and

Ondoy)

• 2008: 253 natural and human-induced disasters

affecting 8.5 million people (Frank)

• Typhoons, drought and fire

 Seven out of ten in top disasters in
deaths are flood/storm related

• ‘Yolanda’ affected 11,236,014; death toll at 5,670; cost 34.36 B PhP (787 M USD) –
NDRRMC
 Flood/storms affect more people than
other disasters

• ‘Yolanda’ affected 11,236,014; death toll at 5,670; cost 34.36 B PhP (787 M USD) –
 Nine out of ten in top disasters in
damage are flood/storm related

• ‘Yolanda’ affected 11,236,014; death toll at 5,670; cost 34.36 B PhP (787 M USD) –
Tropical Cyclone Passage Statistics (1948-1992)
 Climate change adaptation
 Important in developing countries since those
countries are predicted to bear the brunt of the
effects of climate change.
 Uneven capacity and potential to adapt
(adaptive capacity) across different regions and
social classes
 Adaptive capacity is closely linked to social and
economic development (IPCC, 2007)
 Lopsided responsibility and
vulnerability
 Inverse relationship between
climate change vulnerability and
responsibility
 Primary emitter countries must
change their production activities
and consumption of energy and
seek sustainable solutions.
 Basic human needs, economic
and social development need
adequate energy and
infrastructure.
 GHG emissions in the Philippines
(~0.3 % of world)

 Transport (34%), Energy (29%),

Industry (17%), Agriculture
(10%), Others (10%)
 Transport
 Oil industry controlled by Big 3
 Second hand engines
 Most industrial activity is
extractive and export oriented
 Energy industry – privatized
under EPIRA

Greenhouse gas mitigation strategy: The Philippine Experience (Oct 2001)

 Continued growth of GHGs
 After nearly a decade of no growth, atmospheric
CH4 has increased during the past three years.
 Potential methane release from northern
permafrost, and wetlands
 Concentrations of the main greenhouse gases
have reached their highest levels recorded
since pre-industrial times...despite the
economic slowdown (WMO)
 Global warming worsens the
impact of globalization
 Under a systerm where profit is the primary
objective of societal production, the
environment and our ecosystems are reduced
to being a source of raw materials and dumping
ground for wastes.
 Under such a system, countries which top the
list in terms of profit and industrial might also
become the world's foremost culprits of
environmental degradation.
 Climate change aggravates
environmental hazards
 The harmful effects of
climate change and the
disasters it induced bear
heavily on the most
vulnerable or marginalized
segments of the population
especially the poor
peasants
 Poor countries like the Philippines are
vulnerable to enhanced hazards due to
climate change

• Impacts are worse

• Lack of financial,institutional and

technological capacity and
access to knowledge

• Impact disproportionately upon

poor within countries

• Exacerbates inequities in health

status and access to adequate
food, clean water and other
resources.
False solutions
Kyoto Protocol 1997
 International agreement under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
 reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5%
between 2008-2012 relative to 1990
 The flexibility mechanisms – carbon trading
 Land-use, land-use change and forestry activities
 Funding mechanisms to assist developing
countries
 175 countries except US and Australia (Australia
later signed on Kyoto)
Failure of mitigation limits
 1997 Kyoto Protocol failed to
reduce GHG emissions.
 10 years after, GHG emission
rates increased and levels
continued to rise
Monopoly capital seeks to profit more
from the climate crisis
 Carbon offset mechanisms shift out carbon
mitigation and reduction out of industrialized
countries towards developing countries.
 Distort development activities while keeping

consumption and production activities of

industrialized countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms
 Clean Development
Mechanisms (CDM)
and carbon trading
effectively marketize
carbon emissions
Services:
 Shuffles around
responsibility to curb
emissions.
 Does not address
issue of
overproduction

UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Post-Kyoto/COP 15
 Copenhagen, Denmark 2009
 Opportunity to overhaul Kyoto Protocol
 Obama, Gloria announcement in APEC summit
effectively postpones any discussion in COP 15
about a replacement of the Kyoto protocol
 Possibly in Mexico later (COP16??)
 Other calls to peg targets (see 350.org)
 REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation in
Developing Countries)
Asymmetric responsibility and
vulnerability
 Inverse relationship between
climate change vulnerability and
responsibility
 Primary emitter countries must
change their production activities
and consumption of energy and
seek sustainable solutions.
 Basic human needs, economic
and social development need
adequate energy and
infrastructure.
Technology solutions

 Biofuels
 Renewable Energy
 Nuclear plants
 REDD
 Geoengineering
 Carbon capture and
Storage (CCS)
Lifestyle changes?
 “Lifestyle change/footprint”
 Make CFLs cheap and accessible
 Provide cheap and accessible
“renewable” power
 Provide cheap and accessible
technology
 Engage in local production of goods (national
industrialization)
 Do not sell out energy resources
 Banning technologies that are pollutive
 Develop products that are cost effective
 Mass transport

http://conta11.my3gb.com/carbon/ecological-footprint.html
Monopoly capital seeks to profit more
from the climate crisis
The UNFCCC estimated that additional
 WB Climate 

investment and financial flows of US $ 200-210

billion a year will be necessary for mitigation by
Investment Funds 2030 (UNFCCC 2007).
 IPCC (2007) suggests a (wide!) range of
 Climate aid between 0.2 and 3.5% of global GDP for
annual mitigation costs. Looking at costs in
 Geoengineering excess of the entire global aid budget today
(Spratt 2009).
“solutions”  Real need for public financing for innovation in
mitigation technologies at R&D and
 Sabotaging the 
demonstration stages.
Currently very little public finance is available
UNFCCC negotiations for these stages. GEF is typically aimed at the
diffusion stage and the CDM is stimulating
adoption of technologies.
 Energy Technologies Institute could play a role
in enabling clean energies (projects on tidal,
offshore wind etc).
People's Initiatives
 Community based disaster
response
 Capacity building for vulnerable

communities
 Work for social change –

structural and systematic;

towards a society where human
rights, national patrimony,
genuine land reform, and
national industrialization is
pursued
 Defend our patrimony and

communities against foreign

and local plunder
People's Initiatives
 Popularize and implement
proper and sustainable use of
our natural resources – in line
with people's welfare and
interests, proper technology,
and mitigation measures
 Popularize correct perspective

towards environmental issues –

pro-people, patriotic, and
scientific orientation
 Help communities cope and

respond to environment
Multisectoral formations
 Philippine Climate
Watch Alliance: broad,
national
 People's Action on
Climate Change: c
International
Addressing the Climate Crisis
 Massive educational
campaign
 Defend the environment
and national patrimony
from imperialist plunder
 13 metallic minerals (7.1
B MT)
 29 non-metallic (51 B
MT)
 Gold (2nd)

rd
Copper (3 )
 Biodiversity area
Confronting the climate crisis

 Uphold the right to

develop.
 Basic human needs,
economic and social
development need
adequate energy and
infrastructure.
 Jobs and Justice
Genuine development for all

 Work towards a
sustainable, independent
and progressive local
economy.
 National
Industrialization
 Genuine Agrarian
Reform
c

Existing environmental and social problems aggravated by

global warming will continue to persist until the plunder of the
world for globalization's greed for profits end.