Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remarks

(1) Enhanced SWM Rain “The Effect of TC on - Heavy rains is due to strong - 5 year (2002-2006) daily
with TC SWM Rainfall in the and humid southwesterly rainfall data at 11 western
Philippines”; Cayanan et winds blowing over Luzon stations
al.; Journal of the western Luzon but the -TC tracks within PAR
Meteorological Society presence of TC has an -Average daily wind and
of Japan (2011) indirect dominating effect direction at 850 hPa over
on the intensity of the western Luzon
rainfall. Using NCEP Final (FNL) data
- TC over oceans generate with 1o long. X 1o lat.
westerlies in addition to Resolution
the SW monsoon airstream.
- Mountain ranges along
western Luzon is also a
contributing factor because
it serves as the lifting
mechanism for the humid
westerlies to rise and
condense into clouds.
 Theme Title/Author/Journal Results
(2) TC effect on “Contribution of TC to - TC rain highest in north of Phil
rainfall (quantify rainfall in the Philippines”; (part. west coast of Luzon) at 54%
and characterize Bagtasa; Journal of Climate and in Mindanao at 6%
the amount of (2017) - TC rain contribution is due to
rainfall contributed influence of TCs located NE of Phil
by TCs) on prevailing southwesterly winds
during the summer monsoon
season and not directly from the
immediate TC rain bands
- Positive (negative) peaks in total
annual rainfall coincides with La
Nina(El Nino)
- ENSO has more influence on non-
TC rain
- TC rain contribution increased for
the whole Phil after the 1997-99
ENSO event more likely due to the
more westward TC tracks brought
about by the changes in dynamic
and thermodynamic factors which
affected TC movement and intensity
Method/Data Remarks
- APHRODITE Monsoon Asia,
version 1101R2 - daily gridded
precipitation a grid resolution
of 0.25o x 0.25o (1951- 2007)
- TRMM 3B42, version 7 for
precipitation data for 2008-
2014
- JMA TC reanalyzed best track
data
- Rainfall within a 10o
(1100km) radius from the TC
center was chosen in this study
to be rainfall associated with
TCs
 Theme Title/Author/Journal
(3) TC effect on “How much do TC affect
seasonal and inter- seasonal and inter-annual
annual rainfall rainfall variability over the
variability WNP?”; Kubota and Wang;
Journal of Climate (2009)
Results Method/Data Remarks
- Rainfall decreases with increasing - Rainfall data from 22 stations Possible
distance from TC center in WNP island, Philippines and reference for
- Along 10oN seasonality of total Taiwan (stations on east coast approach/
rain mainly determined by non-TC and/or islands) methodology
rainfall that is influenced by WPN - JTWC best track data for
monsoon trough (TC rain is low) 1951-2005
- Along 18-26oN (125oE) TC rain - The Hadley Center Global Sea
accounts for 50-60% of the total Ice Sea Surface Temperature
rain during TC season from July- monthly dataset of 1o x 1o
October spatial resolution for sea
- Non-TC rainfall decreases after July surface temperature (SST);
under the influence of WNP ENSO Nin ˜o-3.4 index. The
subtropical high classification of El Nino 3-4
- Inter annual variability of rainfall index
modulated by ENSO
-Results suggests that in the tropical
WNP and subtropical East Asian
monsoon regions, the seasonal and
inter-annual variations of rainfall
are controlled by changes in
nonlocal circulations. These changes
outside the monsoon domain may
substantially affect summer
monsoon rainfall by changing TC
genesis and tracks.
 Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remar
ks
(4) TC and “TC and monsoon- - PTC and PSM accounts for 47.5% and 52.5% of total rainfall in (1) Daily rainfall data * Sample
monsoon induced rainfall Taiwan (10 stations) – check for science
rain in variability in Taiwan”; - Two dominant rainfall variability types are found in Taiwan: variability due to TC questions
Taiwan Chen et al.; Journal of enhanced PTC but suppressed PSM (T+S-) and suppressed PTC but activity/monsoon
Climate (2010) enhanced PSM (T-S+) climate
- The T+S- type features a low-level anomalous cyclone and (2) NCEP–NCAR
enhanced upward motion southeast of Taiwan which is a Reanalysis data - used
favorable condition to more TC formation in the region. TCs are to reveal large-scale
further steered by mean southeasterly flows toward Taiwan to circulation patterns
increase PTC (T+). As Taiwan is located in the western boundary associated with
of the anomalous cyclone, anomalous northeasterly water vapor interannual rainfall
fluxes hinder moisture supplies from the South China Sea into variability
Taiwan, resulting in decreased PSM (S-) (3) Monthly
- The T-S+ type concurs with an anomalous cyclone over Taiwan. precipitation of the
Its center enhances upward motion and moisture fluxes from the Climate Prediction
South China Sea into Taiwan, yielding increased PSM (S+). Center (CPC) Merged
Meanwhile, weak relative vorticity anomalies occur to the Analysis of
southeast of Taiwan, suppressing TC formation in the region. Precipitation (CMAP)
Mean southerly steering flows tend to drive more TCs toward data for 1980–2002 -
Japan and the North Pacific, resulting in decreased TC frequency employed to portray
and PTC in Taiwan (T-) the climatological
- Rainfall components induced by transient TC activity and pattern of summer
seasonal monsoon climate may contribute oppositely to total rainfall over the
East Asian rainfall, leading to its complex annual variablity Asian–Pacific region
 Theme Title/Author/Journal Results
(5) Orographic “Role of Narrow Mountain - Orographic rain bands are not
effect on monsoon in Large-scale Organization just localized phenomenon but
convection- of Asian Monsoon form the cores if basin-scale
circulation Convection”; Xie et al.; convection over Bay of Bengal
interaction Journal of Climate (2006) and SCS
- Orographic organization
important for both seasonal and
inter-annual variability of
monsoon rainfall with centers of
action anchored by coastal
mountains
- Adding narrow mountain
ranges in the system provide
the seeds for convective
organization resulting in a
reorganization of time-mean
precipitation in space
Method/Data Remarks
- Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM) Precipitation
Radar (PR) surface rainfall
product 3A25G2 (December
1997 to September 2004 )
- Special Sensor Microwave
Imager (SSM/I) rainfall (July
1987 to December 2003)
- Quick Scatterometer
(QuikSCAT) wind velocity
(August 1999 to September
2004)
 Theme Title/Author/Journal
*Review paper “Characteristics, Processes,
and Causes of the Spatio-
temporal Variabilities of
the East Asian Monsoon
System”; Huang et al.;
Advances in Atmospheric
Sciences (2012)
Results Method/Data Remarks
Characteristics of EASM system:
(1) Circulation structure
(2) Water vapor transport
(3) Rainfall cloud system
(4) Spatio-temporal variabilities
(5) Influence of atmosphere-
ocean-land intercations
 Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remarks

(i) TC influence on “Tropical cyclone influence
Phil summer on the long-term variability
monsoon onset of Philippine summer
monsoon onset “; Kubota
et al.; Progress in Earth
and Planetary Science
(2017)
Influence of TC activity on the
variability of summer monsoon
onset date:
- From the mid-1990s, the
probability of TC existence (PTCe)
during the summer monsoon onset
increased and became more than
60% (0.6), and is correlated with
that period having an early
monsoon onset.
- The recent early monsoon onsets
observed after the mid-1990s were
influenced by active TC formation in
the PS and the SCS.
- Tropical cyclone activity in the PS
and the SCS plays a key role in
initiating early Philippine summer
monsoon onset.
- PAGASA station rainfall
data
- International
Comprehensive Ocean-
Atmosphere Dataset
(ICOADS) for wind speed
and direction (1901 to
2007)
- JMA TC best track data
- PAGASA upper-air
observations
 Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remarks

(6) Rainfall “Long-term trends and -

extremes variability of rainfall
extremes in the
Philippines”; Villafuerte et
al.; Atmospheric Research
(2013)
 Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remarks

TC-SWM “TC-SWM Interaction and - Combined effect of the enhanced - Satellite images (MTSAT, Focus of paper
Interaction the 2008 Floods and SWM flow and TC outer core NOAA, MODIS, FY2, ALOS) was on the flood
Landslides in Panay circulation triggered heavy rainfall - Rainfall data (PAGASA) due to geological
Island”; Yumul et al.; changes in the
Natural Hazards (2012) area
Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remarks
Literature Review:

Theme Title/Author/Journal Results Method/Data Remarks

Enhanced SWM “The Effect of TC on SWM Rainfall - Heavy rains is due to strong - 5 year (2002-2006) daily
Rain with TC in the Philippines”; Cayanan et al.; and humid southwesterly rainfall data at 11 western
Journal of the Meteorological winds blowing over western Luzon stations
Society of Japan (2011) Luzon but the presence of -TC tracks within PAR
TC has an indirect -Average daily wind and
dominating effect on the direction at 850 hPa over
intensity of the rainfall. western Luzon
- TC over oceans generate Using NCEP Final (FNL) data
westerlies in addition to the with 1o long. X 1o lat.
SW monsoon airstream. Resolution
- Mountain ranges along
western Luzon is also a
contributing factor because
it serves as the lifting
mechanism for the humid
westerlies to rise and
condense into clouds.
TC-SWM “TC-SWM Interaction and the 2008 - Combined effect of the Focus of paper was on
Interaction Floods and Landslides in Panay enhanced SWM flow and TC the flood due to
Island”; Yumul et al.; Natural outer core circulation triggered geological changes in
Hazards (2012) heavy rainfall the area
Orographic effect
on monsoon
convection-
circulationinteracti
Monsoon Systems in the Philippines
• Southwest Monsoon
characterized by a strong, generally west or southwest breeze that is
responsible for bringing significant rainfall to the Asian subcontinent.
Theme: TC-enhanced SWM Rainfall
Science Question:
What are the relative contributions of rainfall components
associated with monsoon and TC activity to the total rain in the
northwestern coast of Luzon?

Hypothesis:
TC rain contribution along the northwest coast of Luzon is
mainly due to the influence of TCs located NE of the Philippines
on the prevailing southwesterly winds during the summer
monsoon season and not directly from the immediate TC rain
bands.
 Physics:
1.
Summer Southwest Monsoon - Habagat

Summer Monsoon weather is characterized by a strong, generally West or southwest breeze that is
responsible for bringing significant rainfall to the Asian subcontinent and to South and East Asia. The
significant southwest monsoon rainfall is a by-product of air passing over large areas of warm equatorial
ocean, stimulating increased levels of evaporation from the ocean’s surface; the southwest monsoon air,
now laden with water vapour, cools as it moves north and as it rises over land; at some point the air is no
longer able retain its moisture and precipitates copious volumes to irrigate rice fields and drench rainforests,
sometimes causing severe flooding. The Summer Monsoon (West or southwest) is the predominant weather
pattern from May to early October each year.
Winter Northeast Monsoon - Amihan
Winter Monsoon weather features a generally less strong, East or northeast breeze that is cool and dry
(compared to the Summer Monsoon weather) with prolonged periods of successive cloudless days. The Winter
Monsoon (North or northeast) features cool and dry air that originates in a vast anticyclone - a weather system
with a high barometric pressure - which forms over Siberia, Mongolia and northern China during each northern
winter. The Winter Monsoon air from the anticyclone pushes outward in a clockwise motion from its centre and
competes with the Summer Monsoon over a period of a week or two, usually starting in late September and
early October, before finally dominating the weather with a cooler and drier northeast monsoon, in most Asian
tropical and sub-tropical destinations, through to the following April.

There is no specific weather pattern equivalent to a monsoon season in southern latitudes because there is no
continent large enough to create the conditions similar to those that drive the alternate Winter Monsoon, as in
the North. It could be said that the southern hemisphere is perpetually in varying degrees of Summer Monsoon
condition; Brazil and parts of equatorial Africa occasionally experience some weather patterns that show some
seasonal differences.
 Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines (Cinco et al., 2016)

An analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) data from 1951 to 2013 in the Philippines revealed that an average of
19.4 TCs enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) every year and nine TCs cross the country. Time
series analysis of the TC datasets shows no significant trends in the annual number of TCs in PAR but a
slightly decreasing trend in the number of landfalling TCs in the Philippines, particularly in the last two
decades. However, while the analysis shows fewer typhoons (above 118 kph), more extreme TCs (above 150
kph) have affected the Philippines. The study also confirms that the Northern island of Luzon is most
frequently hit by TCs, and that TC-associated rainfall is greatest in this region compared to the southernmost
part of the country. The impact of TCs shows a consistently increasing trend in economic losses and
damages. Further understanding of past and future trends of TC activity in the Western North Pacific Basin,
and the PAR, including the impacts associated with them, will provide valuable insights for climate change
adaptation and disaster risk management.