Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis /

Preliminary Concepts on Probability

MATH30-7
Probability and Statistics
 Objectives
At the end of the lesson, the students are expected to
• Define basic terms and phrases used in statistics;
• Identify the importance of statistics in everyday life;
• Compare and contrast descriptive and inferential
statistics;
• Understand and describe sample spaces and events for
random experiments with graphs, tables, lists, or tree
diagrams;
• Use permutation and combinations to count the
number of outcomes in both an event and the sample
space;
 Objectives
• Define probability; and
• Relate counting techniques to real life situations.
 Statistics
The field of statistics deals with the collection,
presentation, analysis, and use of data to make decisions,
solve problems, and design products and processes. In
simple terms, statistics is the science of data.
 Branches of Statistics
Descriptive Statistics (DS)
• Concerned with describing the characteristics and
properties of a group of persons, places or things.
• Based on easily verifiable facts or meaningful
information.
• Does not draw inferences or conclusions about a larger
set of data.
 Descriptive Statistics
Examples
• How many passed in the recent Chemical Engineering
Licensure examination?
• In Applied Life Data Analysis (Wiley, 1982), Wayne
Nelson presents the breakdown time of an insulating
fluid between electrodes at 34 kV. The times in
minutes, are as follows: 0.19, 0.78, 0.96, 1.31, 2.78,
3.16, 4.15, 4.67, 4.85, 6.50, 7.35, 8.01, 8.27, 12.06,
31.75, 35.52, 33.91, 36.71, and 72.89.
 Branches of Statistics
Inferential Statistics (IS)
• Draws inferences about a population based on the data
gathered from the samples using the techniques of DS.
• Composed of those methods concerned with the
analysis of a smaller group of data leading to
predictions or inferences about the larger set of data.
• Statistics that deals in giving a generalization about the
whole from an analysis of the part of the group.
 Inferential Statistics
Examples
• Is there a significant correlation between the amount
of time spent in studying and final grade in a chemistry
course?
• Study shows that ABET accredited programs draw more
students to enrol at Mapúa Institute of Technology in
such programs.
 Population and Sample
Population
• Totality of all observations from which the data set is
acquired
• All of the possible events should be considered.
• Variable that describes population is known as
parameter.
Example:
There are 3,786 students enrolled in MATH10-3.
Population: Students of MATH10-3
Parameter: 3,786 (population size)
 Population and Sample
Sample
• Small group taken from the population
• A group heterogeneous as possible taken from the
large group to represent the population
• Variable that describes sample is known as statistic.
Example:
Of the 3,786 students enrolled in MATH10-3, 1956 are
females.
Sample: Female students in MATH10-3
Statistic: 1,956 (sample size)
 Probability
• A tool to relate the descriptive statistics to inferential
statistics
• Ratio of number of samples derived from the total
population
• Deals with counting elements
 Random Experiment
• An experiment that can result in different outcomes,
even though it is repeated in the same manner every
time

Examples:
- Measuring a current in a copper wire with the presence
of uncontrollable inputs resulting the variations in
measurements
- Designing a communication system (computer or voice
communication network) where the information
capacity available to serve individuals using the
network is an important design consideration
 Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment
• Denoted as S

Examples:
Consider the experiment of tossing a die.
• Sample space for the number appearing on the top
face:
S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Sample space for the number appearing on the top
face whether it is even or odd:
S2 = {even, odd}
 Discrete Sample Space
• A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or
countable infinite set of outcomes.
Examples:
- Sample space for the number appearing on the top
face:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

- Sample space for a thrown die until a five occurs:

S = {F, NF, NNF, NNNF, …}
where F = occurrence of 5 and N = nonoccurrence of 5.
 Continuous Sample Space
• A sample space is continuous if it contains an interval
(either finite or infinite) of real numbers.

Example:
- Sample space of the life in years (t) of a certain
electronic component:
S = {t|t ≥ 0}
 Sample Space
Provide a reasonable description of the sample space for
each of the random experiments in Exercises 2-1 to 2-17.
There can be more than one acceptable interpretation of
each experiment. Describe any assumptions you make.

2-7 A scale that displays two decimal places is used to

measure material feeds in a chemical plant in tons.

2-11 The pH reading of a water sample to the nearest

tenth of a unit.
 Sample Space
Provide a reasonable description of the sample space for
each of the random experiments in Exercises 2-1 to 2-17.
There can be more than one acceptable interpretation of
each experiment. Describe any assumptions you make.

2-16 An order for a computer system can specify memory

of 4, 8, or 12 gigabytes, and disk storage of 200, 300, or
400 gigabytes. Describe the set of possible orders.

2-17 Calls are repeatedly placed to a busy phone line until

a connection is achieved.
 Sample Space
2-18/26 In a magnetic storage device, three attempts are
made to read data before an error recovery procedure
that repositions the magnetic head is used. The error
recovery procedure attempts three repositionings before
an “abort” message is sent to the operator. Let
s denote the success of a read operation
f denote the failure of a read operation
F denote the failure of an error recovery procedure
S denote the success of an error recovery procedure
A denote an abort message sent to the operator.
Describe the sample space of this experiment.
 Event
• Subset of the sample space of a random experiment

Consider the events E1 and E2.

• Union of two events
- Consists of all outcomes that are contained in either of
the two events
- Denoted by E1 ∪ E2

• Intersection of two events

- Consists of all outcomes that are contained in both of
the two events
- Denoted by E1 ∩ E2
 Event
• Complement of an event
- Set of outcomes in the sample space that are not in the
event
- The complement of the event E is E′ or EC.
- (E′)′ = E
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, denoted as E1 and E2 , such that

E1 ∩ E2 = ∅

are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint.

Example:
Let M = {a, e, i, o, u} and N = {r, s, t}; then it follows that M
∩ N = ∅. That is, M and N have no elements in common
and, therefore, cannot occur simultaneously.
 Event
2-19/28 Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in
the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events:
(a) A′ (b) A ∩ B (c) (A ∩ B) ∪ C
(d) (B ∪ C)′ (e) (A ∩ B)′ ∪ C
Venn Diagram
 Venn Diagram
Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions,
which may easily verified by means of Venn diagrams, are
as follows:
1. A ∩ ∅ = ∅
2. A ∪ ∅ = A
3. A ∩ A′ = ∅
4. A ∪ A′ = S
5. S′ = ∅
6. ∅′ = S
7. (A′)′ = A
 Venn Diagram
8. De Morgan’s laws:
(A ∩ B)′ = A′ ∪ B′
(A ∪ B)′ = A′ ∩ B′

9. Distributive laws:
A(B ∪ C) = AB ∪ AC
A ∪ (BC) = (A ∪ B)(A ∪ C)
 Event
2-21 A digital scale is used that provides weights to the
nearest gram.
(a) What is the sample space for this experiment?
Let A denote the event that a weight exceeds 11 grams,
let B denote the event that weight is less than or equal to
15 grams, and let C denote the event that a weight is
greater than or equal to 8 grams and less than 12 grams.
Describe the following events.
(b) A ∪ B (c) A ∩ B (d) A′
(e) A ∪ B ∪ C (f) (A ∪ C)′ (g) A ∩ B ∩ C
(h) B′ ∩ C (i) A ∪ (B ∩ C)
 Event
2-24 In light-dependent photosynthesis, light quality
refers to the wavelength of light that are important. The
wavelength of a sample photosynthetically active
radiations (PAR) is measured to the nearest nanometer.
The red range is 675-700 nm and the blue range is 450-
500 nm. Let A denote the event that PAR occurs in the red
range and let B denote the event that PAR occurs in the
blue range. Describe the sample space and indicate each
of the following events:
(a) A (b) B (c) A∩B (d) AᴜB
 Counting Techniques
• An important part of combinatorics (study of
arrangement of objects which is part of discrete
mathematics)
• Methods used for counts of the numbers of outcomes
in the sample space and various events for analyzing
random experiments
• Used for more complicated problems and more difficult
sample space or an event
 Multiplication Rule
• If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for
each of these a second operation can be performed in
n2 ways, then the two operations can be performed in
n1n2 ways.
Example:
How many sample points are in the sample space when a
pair of dice is thrown once?

The first die can land in any one of n1 = 6 ways. For each
of these 6 ways the second die can also land in n2 = 6
ways. Therefore, the pair of dice can land in
n1n2 = (6)(6) = 36 possible ways.
Generalized Multiplication Rule
• If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for
each of these a second operation can be performed in
n2 ways, and for each of the first and two a third
operation can be performed in n3 ways, and so forth,
then the sequence of k operations can be performed in
n1n2…nk ways.
Generalized Multiplication Rule
Examples:
Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has
the choice of ordering chips from two brands, a hard drive
from four, memory from three and an accessory bundle
from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam
order the parts?

Since n1 = 2, n2 = 4, n3 = 3, and n4 = 5, there are

n1 × n2 × n3 × n4 = 2×4×3×5 = 120 ways.

Generalized Multiplication Rule
2-16 How many even four-digit numbers can be formed
from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit can be used
only once?

2-30 In how many different ways can a true-false test

consisting of 9 questions can be answered?
Generalized Multiplication Rule
2-35 An order for a computer can specify any one of five
memory sizes, any one of three types of displays, and any
one of five sizes of hard disks, and can either include or
not include a pen tablet. How many different systems can
be ordered?

2-37 New designs for a wastewater treatment tank have

proposed four possible shapes, four possible sizes, three
locations for input valves, and four locations for output
valves. How many different product designs are possible?
Generalized Multiplication Rule
2-36 In a manufacturing operation, a part is produced by
machining, polishing and painting. If there are three
machine tools, four polishing tools, and three painting
tools, how many different routings (consisting of
machining, followed by polishing and followed by
painting) for a part are possible?
Generalized Multiplication Rule
15/340 Each user on a computer system has a password,
which is six to eight characters long, where each character
is an uppercase letter or a digit. Each password must
contain at least one digit. How many possible passwords
are there?
 Permutation
• An ordered sequence of the elements
Example:
Consider the three letters a, b, and c. The possible
permutations are abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba.

• The number of permutations of n different elements is

n! (read as n factorial) where

n! = n × (n ─ 1) × (n ─ 2) × … × 2 × 1

Note: 0! = 1
 Permutation of Subsets
The number of permutations of subsets of r elements
selected from a set of n different elements is

𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛 × 𝑛 − 1 × 𝑛 − 2 × ⋯ × 𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1
𝑛
𝑛!
𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
Equation 2-2

Note: 𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑃 𝑛, 𝑟

 Permutation
2-10/24 Printed Circuit Board
A printed circuit board has eight different locations in
which a component can be placed. If four different
components are to be placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible?

P48 = 8P4 = P(8, 4) = 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 = 8!/4!

= 1680 different designs are possible
 Permutation
2-43 In the laboratory analysis of samples from a
chemical process, six samples from the process are
analyzed daily. In addition, a control sample is analyzed
two times each day to check the calibration of the
laboratory instruments.
a) How many different sequences of process and control
samples are possible each day? Assume that the six
process samples are considered identical and that the
two control samples are considered identical.
b) How many different sequences of process and control
samples are possible if we consider the six process
samples to be different and the two control samples
to be identical?
 Permutation
2-44 In the design of an electromechanical product, 10
components are to be stacked into a cylindrical casing in a
manner that minimizes the impact of shocks. One end of the
casing is designated as the bottom and the other is the top.
a) If all the components are different , how many different
designs are possible?
b) If seven components are identical to one another, how many
designs are possible?
c) If three components are of one type and identical to one
another, and four components are of another type and
identical to one another but the others are different, how
many different designs are possible?
 Permutation
2-45/28 Consider the design of a communication system.
(a) How many three-digit phone prefixes that are used to
represent a particular geographic area (such as an area
code) can be created from the digits 0 through 9?
(b) As in part (a), how many three-digit phone prefixes are
possible that do not start with 0 or 1, but contain 0 or 1 as
the middle digit?
(c) How many three-digit phone prefixes are possible in
which no digit appears more than once in each prefix?
 Permutation
2-45/28 Consider the design of a communication system.
(a) How many three-digit phone prefixes that are used to
represent a particular geographic area (such as an area
code) can be created from the digits 0 through 9?
(b) As in part (a), how many three-digit phone prefixes are
possible that do not start with 0 or 1, but contain 0 or 1 as
the middle digit?
(c) How many three-digit phone prefixes are possible in
which no digit appears more than once in each prefix?
 Permutation
2.31/51 A witness to a hit-and-run accident told the police
that the license number contained the letters RLH
followed by 3 digits, the first of which was a 5. If the
witness cannot recall the last 2 digits, but is certain that
all 3 digits are different, find the maximum number of
automobile registrations that the police may have to
check.

2.32/52 (a) In how many ways can 6 people be lined up to

get on a bus?
(b) If 3 specific persons, among 6, insist on following each
other, how many ways are possible?
(c) If 2 specific persons, among 6, refuse to follow each
other, how many ways are possible?
 Permutation
2.33/52 If a multiple-choice test consists of 5 questions
each with 4 possible answers of which only 1 is correct,
(a) In how many different ways can a student check off
one answer to each question?
(b) In how many ways can a student check off one answer
to each question and get all the answers wrong?

2.36/52 (a) How many three-digit numbers can be formed

from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 if each digit can be
used only once?
(b) How many of these are odd numbers?
 Circular Permutation
The number of permutations of n distinct objects
arranged in a circle is (n − 1)!.

Example:
2-43/52 In how many ways can 5 different trees be
planted in a circle?
Permutation of Similar Objects
• Permutation with repetition

The number of permutations of n = n1 + n2 + … + nr objects

of which n1 are of one type, n2 are of second type, … , and
nr are of an rth type is

𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! … 𝑛𝑟 !
Permutation of Similar Objects
2-45/52 How many distinct permutations can be made
from the letters of the word INFINITY?

2-46/52 In how many ways can 3 oaks, 4 pines, and 2

maples be arranged along a property line if one does not
distinguish among trees of the same kind?

2-12/26 A part is labeled by printing with four thick lines,

three medium lines, and two thin lines. If each ordering of
the nine lines represent a different label, how many
different labels can be generated by using this scheme?
 Ordered Partition
The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into
r cells with n1 elements in the first cell, n2 elements in the
second, and so forth, is

𝑛 𝑛!
𝑛1 , 𝑛2 , … , 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑟 !

where n1 + n2 + … + nr = n.

Example:
2-20/49 In how many ways can 7 scientists be assigned to
one triple and two double hotel rooms?
 Combination
A combination is actually a partition of two cells, the one
cell containing the r objects selected and the other cell
containing the (n − r) objects that are left.

The number of such combinations, denoted by

𝑛 𝑛
𝑟, 𝑛 − 𝑟 , is usually shortened to 𝑟 ,

since the number of elements in the second cell must be

(n − r).
 Combination
The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r
at a time is

𝑛 𝑛!
= 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑟 = .
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
 Combination
Examples:
2-13/25 Printed Circuit Board Layout
A printed circuit board has eight different locations in
which a component can be placed. If five identical
components are to be placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible?
 Combination
2-14/25 Sampling without Replacement
A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains three defective
parts and 47 nondefective parts. A sample of six parts is
selected from the 50 parts without replacement. That is,
each part can only be selected once and the sample is a
subset of the 50 parts. How many different samples are
there of size 6 that contain exactly 2 defective parts?
 Combination
2-22/50 A young boy asks his mother to get five game-boy
cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports
games. How many ways are there that his mother will get
3 arcade and 2 sports games, respectively?

11/358 How many poker hands of five cards can be dealt

from a standard deck of 52 cards? Also, how many ways
are there to select 47 cards from a standard deck of 52
cards?
 Combination
12/360 How many ways are there to select five players
from a 10-member tennis team to make a trip to a match
at another school?

13/360 A group of 30 people have been trained as

astronauts to go on the first mission to Mars. How many
ways are there to select a crew of six people to go on this
mission (assuming that all crew members have the same
job)?
 Combination
15/360 Suppose that there are 9 faculty members in the
mathematics department and 11 in the computer science
department. How many ways are there to select a
committee to develop a discrete mathematics course at a
school if the committee is to consist of three faculty
members from the mathematics department and four
from the computer science department?
 Summary
• There are two fields of Statistics: Descriptive and
Inferential Statistics.
• Population is the totality of all observations from which
the dataset is acquired. Sample is a subset of
population.
• A random experiment is an experiment that can result
in different outcomes, even though it is repeated in the
same manner each time.
• The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of
a random experiment.
• The event is a subset of a sample space.
 Summary
• Multiplication rule is a formula used to determine the
number of ways to complete an operation from the
number of ways to complete successive steps.
• A permutation is an arrangement of all (n!) or part
(permutation of subsets) of a set of objects.
 Summary
• Two circular permutations are not considered different
unless corresponding objects in the two arrangements
are preceded or followed by a different object as we
proceed in a clockwise direction. For example, if 4
people are playing bridge, we do not have a new
permutation if they all move one position in a
clockwise direction. By considering one person in a
fixed position and arranging the other in 3! ways, we
find that there are 6 distinct arrangements for the
bridge game.
• A combination is actually a partition with two cells, the
on cell containing the r objects selected and the other
cell containing the (n ─ r) objects that are left.
 References
• Montgomery and Runger. Applied Statistics and
Probability for Engineers, 6th Ed. © 2014
• Montgomery and Runger. Applied Statistics and
Probability for Engineers, 5th Ed. © 2011
• Rosen, Kenneth H. Discrete Mathematics and Its
Applications, 6th Ed. © 2007
• Walpole, et al. Probability and Statistics for Engineers
and Scientists 9th Ed. © 2012, 2007, 2002