GLOBAL

WARMING
CE/AE/EnSci 524B

QUANTIFYING GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Are humans the culprit?

?
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Temperatures over the last 1000 years
Temperature change in North America
Water precipitation in North America
Heat balance factors in the atmosphere

Source: National Resources Defense Council

The Greenhouse Effect
Heat balance over Earth
 Blackbody radiation
Both the Sun and Earth emit radiation as a function of temperature, according
to the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (derived from Planck’s Law): E = σAT4
 The electromagnetic spectrum
Progressively more heat is released at higher temperatures
and wavelengths become shorter with higher temperatures
Maximum intensity at a temperature
 Earth and solar radiation
Calculate the power emitted by Earth and peak wavelength for Sun and Earth
Solar Spectrum
The real solar spectrum
Screening by the atmosphere
Vibration energy imparted to CO2
molecules – released as infrared

http://www.ucar.edu/learn/images/carbon.gif
Global trends in major greenhouse gases
The most important greenhouse gas - water
Climate change impacts
SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES
Sources of greenhouse gases
Methane Quantities Released by Different Sources in Tg
Source 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Category
Landfills 172.2 147.4 138.5 134.0 130.7 126.2 126.8 131.2
Natural Gas
128.3 133.6 131.8 127.4 132.1 131.8 130.6 125.9
Systems
Enteric
117.9 118.3 116.7 116.8 115.6 114.5 114.6 115.0
Fermentation
Coal Mining 81.9 62.6 62.8 58.9 56.2 55.6 52.4 53.8
Manure
31.2 36.4 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.9 39.3 39.1
Management
Wastewater
24.8 31.7 32.6 33.6 34.3 34.7 35.8 36.8
Treatment
Petroleum
20.0 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.1
Systems
Rice
7.1 7.5 7.9 8.3 7.5 7.6 6.8 6.9
Cultivation
Stationary
7.8 7.4 6.9 7.1 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.7
Sources
Abandoned
6.1 8.1 7.2 7.3 7.7 6.9 6.4 6.4
Coal Mines
Mobile
4.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7
Sources
Petrochemica
1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5
l Production
Iron and
1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
Steel
Agricultural
Residue 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8
Burning
Total for
605.3 579.5 569.3 557.3 554.2 546.7 542.3 544.9
U.S.
Anthropogenic Methane Sources
Anthropogenic Methane Sources
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
By Gas (1997)
US Greenhouse Gas Emissions /capita & /$ GDP
Sources of Gas (1997)
US ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
BY ENERGY
SOURCE
US ENERGY CONSUMPTION (Quadrillion BTU)
CO2 EMISSIONS From FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION
END USE SECTOR EMISSIONS OF CO2 FROM FOSSIL FUEL
SOURCES OF CH4

(farts and belches)

SOURCES OF N2O
SOURCES OF HFCs, PCFs and SF6
 Quiz
• http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming
.nsf/content/impacts.html