International Political

security
Rights Reserved: Zahid Bashar dost
Presented by: Ammarah Farhat Abbas
 Contents
• Conceptualization of concept of security in 21st
Century
• Power: Balance of Power, Elements of National
Power
• Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision making and
analysis
• National Interest & Sovereignty
 Think ….!
1.Today If India diverts the flow of our water?
2.If enemies of Pakistan sabotage CPEC?
3.If Gwadar becomes a failure because of
Chabahar ?
4.If our society is polarized on sectarian and
ethnic lines?
5.If there is frequent military coups in a country?
 Old concept of Security …

“A nation is secure if it is not in danger of having to

sacrifice core values. And is able, if challenged, to
maintain them by victory in such wars”.
Walter Lippmann

“Security is absence of threat”. Arnold Wolfers

 Security in contemporary era …

“Security is about the ability of state and society to

maintain its independence, identity and functional
integrity”. Barry Buzan
Concept of Security

Traditional (old) Concept of Security

 Military Security against threats from other
countries.
Non-traditional concept of Security
NT concept of security (given by Barry Buzan) is
expansion from Military to political, economic,
societal, environmental, security.
It is security against the soft threats.
 From Macro to Micro …
Traditional National security: is protection of a
state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity from
external military attack. (military)

Non-traditional security: is protection of a state’s

institutions and governing capacity from non-
military threats. (non-military)
 New Threats and threat perception

Conflicts, and revolutions are new threats.

1973 oil crisis highlighted the prominence of
economic security.
Growing signs of environmental degradation, such as
air pollution, acid rain, and deforestation are
environmental threats.
Rapid climate change may lead to floods, famine,
draught, food insecurity etc.
SARS, Bird flu, Ebola, Mad cow, Swine flu, and Zika
virus.
 New Threats and threat perception

Rise of NSAs, 9/11 dramatically changed security

thinking of the world.

Failed States, Bali Bombing, 7/7, Madrid Attacks, Paris

Attacks, Mehran Base attacks, GHQ attacks, IPS
Peshawar, Sehvan Shareef attack and many more.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan
Societal Security
Societal insecurity exists when a society defines a
development as a threat to its existence.

 Example, Refugees as threat to Pakistan, Jordan,

Turkey, Iran, and Germany.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan

Ethnic disharmony is a threat in multi-ethnic societies

like Pakistan, SL, Afghanistan and India.

Changing dynamics of demography is also a threat

to a community – it can change a majority
community to a minority.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan
Political Security
 Security is – when state sovereignty is not challenged.

 There should be no state with in a state.

 Successful power transfer from one govt. to other.

 Security against negative political transformation.... India

can loose secularism to Hinduism, US internationalism into
white race American nationalism.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan
Economic Security
 The main objective of economic security is to develop
rules that generate revenue for state sustenance.

 Policies must have compatibility with regional and

global economic rules – WTO, free market economy
etc.

 Example: US military power is not the cause of US super

power status it is consequence of its economy.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan
Military Security
Having state of the art weapons & technology,
sound training of the military forces with sufficient
number.
Environment Security
Guarding against;
Environment degradation, draught, famines, Food
shortage, Land erosion, floods, Rains, earthquakes,
tsunamis, etc.
Environment weapons have been developed by
many countries , HAARP technologies.
 Power
Elements of
National Power
 Power

“Often defined as the ability to get another actor to

do what it would not otherwise have done.”

“Ability to influence other” Joseph Nye

“Power is the ability to influence the behaviour of

others to get a desired outcome”
 Types of Power
Hard power = military power, war, use of force,
threat of use of force.

Soft power is the ability to attract people to your

side without using force, Joseph Nye

Smart Power combination of both (hard & Soft)

proportionally. USA uses smart power vis-à-vis Pak.
National Power

“The combination of power and capability of a state

that it uses for achieving its national interests and
goals”.
Padelford & Lincoln
 The logic of power suggests;

The more powerful states mostly prevail.

Power predicts the outcome, e.g. Russia & Ukraine.

GDP does not always predict who will win the war.
Elements of National Power
Tangible elements of National Power
1. GDP
2. Geography
1. Topography 2. Climate 3. Location
3. Population and man power
4. Resources
(Natural)
1.Coal 2. Iron 3. Oil 4. Gas 5. Water
Elements of National Power
Human Resources;
1.Capital 2. Technology 3. Labour 4. Food

5. Industrial and Agricultural output

6. Military Apparatus;
1. Numerical strength
2. State of the Art technology
3. War fighting Capability and will to fight
Elements of National Power
Intangible Elements of National Power
 Political and Economic System

 Scientific and Technological Base & Education

National Morals

National Character; Religious, aggressive,

progressive, democratic, or corrupt.
 Elements of National Power
Leadership (strong, charismatic, visionary, timid, self-
interested)

International standing/position

Internal Cohesion (Ethnic, social, religious harmony)

Bureaucratic & diplomatic efficiency

Popular support for the government

Balance of Power

“An even distribution of power”.

“The equilibrium of the power among states in such

a way that no state has dominance over other”.
 Balance of Power
How Balancing is done?
Either by diminishing the weight of the heavier state or
by increasing the weight of the lighter one.
(1) Divide and Rule
For this purpose third party is necessary that may
exercise its authority with force.
Employed by nations who want to keep the
competitor weak, e .g. UK, France, Russia with
Germany and Ottomans after WWI & WWII.
 Balance of Power
(2) Compensation
Compensation in territorial currency 18th 19th century
phenomenon. Congress of Vienna 1815.
Fertility of soil, number of quality of population are the
objective standards.
(3) Armaments/Disarmament
The purpose of armament of a nation is to keep up A
by keeping nation B down.
For both a quantitative evaluation (arms) is required.
 Balance of Power
(4) Alliances
Nation A and B competing with each other have
three choices in order to maintain their relative power;

They can increase their own power. (armament)

They can add to their own power with the power of

other nations. (Alliance)

They can withhold the power of other nations from the

adversary. (Alliance)
On which basis alliance are formed?
 On which basis alliance are formed?

Ideological Bases Arab League Vs. Israel.

Distribution of Interests/benefits states equals

in power and equal in resources make
alliance for equal incentives. NATO Vs. USSR.
 On which basis alliance are formed?

Alliances vs Counter-alliances
Before WWI
 Triple alliance (Austria, Germany and Italy)
VS
 Triple Entete (France , Russia, and Great Britain)
During WWII
 Axis Power (Germany, Italy, and Japan)
VS
 Allied Powers (Britain, France, USA, and USSR)
NTAO Vs. Warsaw pact
 Balance of power

(5) Intervention

Russian intervention in Georgia 2008 & Ukraine.

Indian intervention in East Pakistan 1971

 Balance of power
(6) Buffer States
A buffer state is a small or weak state laying between
two rival great powers.
It prevents conflict between them.
A buffer state is a mutually agreed upon area.

Poland between USSR and Germany

Afghanistan between Britain and USSR
The “Balancer” (who holds balance)

The balancer occupies the key position in the BOP

system, since its position determines the outcome of
the competition of the power.
It decides who will win or lose?
Which country can be a balancer B/W;
1. India and China?
2. China and US?
3. Iran and Saudi Arabia?
 Assessment of BOP concept:
Uncertainty of BOP…Because power and threat
cannot be measured accurately.

BOP as Ideology …acts as mechanism for self-

defence against the potential aggressor.
Imperial countries always use this excuse to prevent
the emergence of a competitor.
Example
US vs Germany and USSR and now vs China.
 Assessment of BOP concept:

BOP as a situation … it arises with relationship of

states – Iran/India/Afghanistan & Pakistan.

BOP as system …. is not between states or blocks

but it is within a system – any state that becomes
powerful is countered. India by Pak, China by US,
Israel by Iran, and Iran by SA.
 Foreign Policy
Determinants, decision making and
analysis
Foreign Policy

“Strategies that governments use to guide their

actions in the international arena, the actions
state leaders decide to pursue and protect
national interest in given situations.”

FP is designed to protect and promote the

national interest abroad.
Purpose of the foreign Policy

Promote a nation’s
1. Security
2. Stability
3. Prosperity
regionally and globally
 Stages in foreign policy decision making

1Assessment of the international and domestic

political environment.
2 Goal setting.
3 Determination of policy options.
4 Formal decision making process.
5 Implementation of chosen policy option.
Objectives of FP
Short term, Middle term, Long term
 Determinants of Foreign Policy
External Factors;
Power structure (small, middle, great power)
Standing in International Organizations (importance in
int. institutions, pol, econ, military/defence)
Geographic Location
Reaction of other States Iraq vs. Kuwait & US
intervention 1991, Pakistan in Afghanistan in 1979.
World public opinion/Public Perception
Alliances
 Determinants of Foreign Policy
Internal Factors;

History

Size and Geography

Natural Resources

Economic/industrial development
Determinants of Foreign Policy
Military Power

Population

Good Governance and Leadership

Quality of Diplomacy

Role of Media and Think Tanks

Graham Allison’s three models of Foreign
Policy Decision Making.
1- Rational Actor Model

“Decision maker set goals,

Evaluate their relative importance,

Calculate the cost and benefits for each possible

course of action,

Choose the one with highest benefits and lowest

cost”.
Rationality demands, Cost benefit Analysis
 models of Foreign Policy Decision Making.
Merits of RAM.
Useful when no or little information about the enemy
is available.
Useful in crisis situation – little time for discussions
Demerits of RAM.
Clash of interests,
Tensions amongst Bureaucratic Agencies (govt
institutions).
 models of Foreign Policy Decision Making.

2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)

Shows the pressures that organizations place on
decision Maker’s choices.
Assumes goals + objectives are already established
Limits choices with Decision Makers based on SOPs
…...
SOPs enhance efficiency.
 models of Foreign Policy Decision Making.
Merits of OPM
Decision makers respond based on the SOPs.
Highlights the domestic political influences and
domestic forces on FP..
FP making is a relationship among other
government institutions.
Lobbyists’ influence is incorporated – corporate
sector/religious groups/military etc.
Demerits of OPM
Time consuming.
Gives little options to the rulers.
 models of Foreign Policy Decision Making.
(3) Bureaucratic Model/ Govt. Bargaining Model.

Key individuals in critical positions have great

influence.

They have different priorities.

They have different organizational positions and

commitments:
Bureaucratic Model
 Bureaucratic Model
Merits of BM
Helps explain why individuals are at times working for
their self interest.
Therefore, explains why policy sometimes looks
irrational.
Demerits of BM
At times state interest is undermined and personal
interest prevail.
 National Interest
National Interest is a country's goals and
ambitions whether economic, military, or cultural.
The most important national interest is the survival
of the state.
Security, Stability, Prosperity are the cherished
national interest of every nation

“Political traditions and political cultural context

with in which a nation formulates its foreign
policy”.
H. J. Morgenthau
 Types of National Interests

Primary: physical (territorial integrity), cultural identity,

guarding against external aggression.
Secondary: protection of diaspora living abroad,
diplomatic immunities abroad etc.
General: in the field of trade, diplomacy and
international law.
Variable: that keep on changing, it may be primary
or secondary.
Permanent: that can uphold their permanence.
 Sovereignty

Sovereignty: A government has the right, in principle,

to do whatever it wants in its own territory.

The principle of supreme authority within a territory

In modern times, sovereignty is almost inextricably

bound with territoriality.
 Sovereignty
Internal. External
It is indivisible, absolute, permanent, and
cannot be transferred – “Rousseau”
For Liberals sovereignty is defined in terms of
the state’s ability to control activities within
and across its borders.
For realists the essence of sovereignty is the
state’s ability to make authoritative decisions
the decision to make wars.
 Questions for Probing
Foreign Policy decision making is a complex
process, which decision making model is
followed in Pakistan and why?

What are the determinants of foreign Policy of

Pakistan?

Suggest steps for Pakistan to keep the Balance

of Power in South Asia vis-à-vis India.