INTRODUCTION

The key objective of the generation expansion planning activity was to

develop a long range least-cost generation expansion plan for Pakistan
for the period 2011-12 to 2029-30 to meet the maximum load demand
and energy consumption whilst taking into account government
policies and identified constraints.

The generation plan was developed using a system planning and

production costing (SYPCO) model to evaluate numerous alternatives.
GoP Power Policy
• In developing the National Power System Expansion Plan (NPSEP) careful
consideration has been given to the Government of Pakistan (GoP) policy
guidelines as well as fuel and infrastructure constraints that affect the
power sector development.
• For Power Generation Projects Year 2002 the GoP Power Policy has three
key objectives as listed below:
1. To provide sufficient capacity for power generation at the least cost,
and to avoid capacity shortfalls
2. To encourage and ensure exploitation of indigenous resources,
which include renewable energy resources
3. To be attuned to safeguarding the environment
Reliability Criteria
• Generation Expansion Plan is based on satisfying reliability criteria.
• The reliability criterion for this study was applied in a staged manner,
as follows:
1. Up to 2018-19: LOLP < 10%
(equivalent to a loss of load expectation of 876 hours/year)
2. 2019-20: LOLP < 5%
(equivalent to a loss of load expectation of 438 hours/year)
3. 2020-21 onwards: LOLP < 1%
(87.6 hours/year)
Study of load shedding profile
Screening Curve Analysis for Hydro and
Thermal Plants
Least Cost Indicative Generation Plan
• Based on generation, fuel and environmental data provided by
WAPDA and other agencies, a least-cost expansion plan was
developed using Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) criteria to ensure that
the installed capacity can reliably meet the load each year of the plan.

• The model uses monthly load duration curves based on hourly data to
simulate unit by unit modelling of all hydro and thermal plants.

• One of the key criteria in evaluating the plans was to ensure that
acceptable reliability indices are attained in each year.
Preliminary Generation Projects Scenario

These simulations are based on the existing planned generation in-

service dates. This scenario provided useful insight into the Pakistan
system but was dropped since reliability criteria were not satisfied
throughout the study horizon period.
Unconstrained Least-Cost Generation Plan

• This involved adjusting some of the in-service dates of a number of

alternatives operating at the same capacity factors as required to
meet reliability targets while maintaining the lowest system
investment and production costs.
• This scenario provided a strong indication of the installed capacity
required to satisfy the demand but was dropped since some of the
policy and infrastructure constraints were violated.
Base Case – Constrained Least-Cost
Generation Plan

• The constrained least-cost generation plan is a variant of the

unconstrained plan that takes into account GoP policy considerations
and infrastructure constraints.
• The plan shows that almost 100,000 MW of installed capacity needs
to be installed to satisfy the load growth and also to replace the
almost 7,000 MW of retiring plants.
Cost of Generation Planning Scenario
Approach and Methodology
1. To review:
The existing and committed system
The range of generation addition options available to meet the
future demand
2. To determine the economically attractive generation options and
generation mix using simplified screening curves.
3. The development of the least cost plan under the Base Case and
alternative scenarios using the System Planning and Production Costing
Software (SYPCO).
Existing and Committed Units
• The total installed capacity of existing hydro and thermal generation
units for the PEPCO and KESC systems including IPPs is about 21,455
MW as at the end of 2010.
• Due to the seasonal variation of water inflows for hydro plants and
the capacity de-rating of thermal units, the dependable capacity for
the systems are estimated to be 15,254 during winter.
• Summary of Existing Hydro Plants
Installed capacity in 2010