Energy Challenges

Dr. Robert MacKay

Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different
scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically
different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.

Red A1F1 scenario with business as usual growth.

Green. Fixed fossil fuel emission from 2013 on (about 10 GtC/yr)

 Emission Scenarios

Emission scenarios for previous slide

Turning off all emissions in 2015 (very unrealistic) will still leave atmospheric CO2
Levels over 390 ppm in the year 2110.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-
faster-than-ever.html
Global per capita emission have held steady for past 30 to 40 years. For the
past 30 to 35 years emissions have been closely linked to population.
• http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html
• http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html
495 x1015 BTU x 1054 Joule/BTU=5.11x1020 J = 511 ExoJoules

Average Power consumption in Watts = Yearly used/ (# of seconds in Year)

Average 2007 Power Consumption =5.11x1020 J/3.15 x107 s=16 TerraWatts

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
How much non-Fossil Fuel energy must be created in the next 25 years?
 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
Top four emitters in 2012 covered 58% of global emissions
China (27%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (6%)

With leap year adjustment in 2012 growth rates are: China 5.6%, USA -4.0%, EU -1.6%, India 7.4%.
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
UNEP mid level projections
Fossil fuel supplies will become harder to find in the future and as supply drop
prices will increase making alternative energies more attractive.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
For oil
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-
2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf
Oil Reserves/Production 52.5 years
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-
2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf
Natural Gas Reserves/Production 54 Years (2014)
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-
2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf
Coal Reserves/production110 Years
In 2005 84% of all energy worldwide came from fossil fuels

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
In 2010 81% of all
energy worldwide
came from fossil
fuels. The 2005 to
2010 difference is
likely an artifact of
how energy
supplies were
estimated.
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-
2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf
Coal Reserves/production110 Years
 http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-
2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf (2014 figures)
Coal Reserves/production110 Years
 Emissions from Coal, Oil, Gas, Cement
Share of global emissions in 2012:
coal (43%), oil (33%), gas (18%), cement (5%), flaring (1%, not shown)

More Carbon emissions from coal but less energy from coal than oil suggesting
that coal is much less efficient than oil for producing energy.
With leap year adjustment in 2012 growth rates are: coal 2.5%, oil 0.9%, gas 2.2%, cement 2.2%.
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
 Most recent BP estimates of 50 year
Supply for oil and Nat Gas
And 100 yrs for coal

Data from
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf
https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html
Wind energy generation is growing at about 30% per year
Cost of Solar energy
Has dropped dramatically
From 2007 to 2011 the growth in solar energy usage increase by about 65%
2012 Solar enrgy supplies very little of our world’s usage

However with a sustained growth rate of 65%/yr it will only take 15 yrs or so for
solar to provide most of the world’s needs
• 1000 exa-Joules per year = 31 TWatts
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
• Liquid biofuels are less than 1
% efficient at converting
sunlight to liquid energy.

• Engines that run on liquid

fuels are 20 % efficient at
best.

• So for every 100 W/m^2 0.2

can be used

• http://www.withouthotair.com/
c6/page_43.shtml
• Solar PV panel are close to 20 % efficient
and electric motors are close to 80 %
efficient
• So for every 100 W/m^2 of energy 16 are
usable.

• This arguments suggest that Photovoltaic

(PV) solar energy collection is 80 times
(16/0.2) better than biofuels
Also
For every 10 TerrWatts of fossil Fuels used
for electric power generation or
transportation, only 2.5 TerraWatts of PV
energy are needed.
From “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity”
Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.
From “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity”
Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.
 Artificial leaves
CCS (Carbon capture and storage)

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/13/carbon-capture-pg2

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/08/110811-quest-to-capture-carbon-dioxide/
 Artificial Leaves

• http://www.sciencefriday.com/blog/2011/0
5/faux-tosynthesis-clean-energy-of-
tomorrow/
http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab/research/grandchallenges/artificialleaf