Small Island Development

in the
Age of Global Climate Change
A Caribbean Case Study
Oldenborg Luncheon Colloquium
Marilyn Grell-Brisk, PhD.
Visiting Assistant Professor
Sociology
 Small Island Developing States
 Small size
 Remoteness
 Limited range in natural resources
and export base
 Susceptible to external economic
shocks, and global climate change
3 regions
 Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and
South China Sea (AIMS)
Bahrain, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau,
Maldives, Mauritius, Sao Tomé & Principe,
Seychelles, Singapore
 Caribbean
Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize,
Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada,
Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, St.
Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname,
Trinidad & Tobago
 Pacific
Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru,
Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon
Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
 Small Island Developing States

Where in the world is

the Caribbean?
Small Island Development
 ~71000 total population

 751km2 or 290 square meters in size

 1500mm of rain on the West Coast

 Over 8750mm of rain in parts of the interior

 179 species of birds

 55 species of butterfly

 ~45 species of inland fish

 Small Island Development

Independence in 1978
Integration into the
global political economy
Post-colonial development project
Ramifications of integration
Diversification (small industry, tourism)
Introduction of commodified citizenship
Small Island Development

Source: World Bank

May 2018
 Small Island Development

 Commodified citizenship
pay x dollars for all the rights
of citizenship without the
traditional duties and
obligations
Small Island Development
 Small Island Development

 increasing dependence
on the program
 5% of GDP revenues =
16% of total revenues
 Sudden stop after 5yrs –
increase in public debt
to 74% of GDP by 2035
(high CBI revenues);
 Sudden stop after 2yrs -
82% of GDP by 2035
(low CBI revenues)
 Citizenship program for
infrastructure rehab,
post-storm
reconstruction and
Revenue from commodified citizenship program. assistance
Source: IMF country report (2017)
 Climate Change and Storm Season

Anthropogenic carbon emissions linked to:

 increased frequency of sea-level
extremes, coastal flooding, and coastal
environmental and infrastructural erosions
(Cook et al. 2016, Slangen et al. 2016; Strauss, Kulp, and
Levermann 2015)

increased intensity of hurricanes in the

Atlantic
(Emanuel 2011; Emanuel, Sundararajan, and Williams 2008)
Climate Change and Storm Season

Global warming has been

linked to:
increasing numbers,
duration, and intensity
of tropical cyclones
(Webster et. al. 2005)
 Effects of storms on the island

Existing ground
saturation from
increased rainfall in
previous rainy
seasons
 Effects of storms on the island

August 2015 Tropical Storm Erika

30 deaths
Significant damages to homes
Villages were abandoned
$483million in damages or 96% of GDP, of which 65% are
attributed to public sector reconstruction costs
September 2017 Hurricane Maria (category 5 hurricane)
64 deaths
$1.3billion in loss and damages or 224% of 2016 GDP
100% of total population affected
 Effects of storms on the island

“Mr. President to deny climate change is to procrastinate while the earth sinks; it
is to deny a truth we have just lived! While the big countries talk, the small island
nations suffer. We need action….and we need it NOW!! We in the Caribbean…
do not pollute or overfish our oceans. We have made no contribution to global
warming that can move the needle. But yet, we are among the main victims…on
the frontline! I repeat - we are shouldering the consequences of the actions of
others!” – Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica addressing the United
Nations General Assembly (9/23/2017)
Effects of storms on the island
Effects of storms on the island
Effects of storms on the island
Country shares of global carbon
dioxide emissions from fuel combustion
(2015)
Source: International Energy Agency
Effects of storms on the island
 Effects of storms on the island

Sectoral breakdown of
GDP from 2008-2017
Source: World Bank
Statistics (12/15/2018
download)
 Storm Impacts on Coastal Waters

 The warming of the Atlantic and

changing currents lead to increasing
intensity of storms

 Pelagic sargassum on coastal shores

 Changes in coastal sea grass

 Impact on fishing (continuing field work)

Changes in Sea Grass and Sargassum

Syringodium filiforme Halophila stipulacea

-native species -invasive species
Effects of storms on the island
Effects of storms on the island
Effects of storms on the island

Some sargassum on
west side of island
near fishing village
of Mahaut
Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt

 upwelling off
West Africa
during boreal
winter and by
Amazon River
discharge during
spring and
summer

 possibly a new
norm
 Effects of storms on the island

Ongoing Research
Survey of fisherfolk
25 interviews
7 villages
4 south west
2 north west
1 north east
 Effects of storms on the island

Survey of fisherfolk

 All engaged in commercial

fishing at some point

 60% sometimes fished for

family and friends - tied to
type of fishing (near shore or
pelagic)
 Effects of storms on the island

Survey of fisherfolk
 92% engage use fishing
aggregating devices (FAD)

A FAD is a man‐made device

deployed in the water to attract
fish to a certain location. The FADs
in Dominica are used mostly to
attract migratory pelagic fish
species like Yellowfin Tuna, Bluefin
Tuna, Marlin and Dolphin Fish
(Mahi Mahi) (Defoe 2004).
 Effects of storms on the island

Survey of fisherfolk
 46% find that 5yrs ago, more successful
 46% find that abundance of fish higher 5yrs ago
 50% find more successful in terms of income 5yrs ago
 majority tie abundance of fish and success to
warming of ocean and specifically climate change
attributed increasing sargassum to climate change
 Effects of storms on the island

Ongoing Survey of
fisherfolk
 Interview directors of
communal fisheries
depot

Survey of farmers
 Effects of storms on the island

UN Conference on Trade And Development (UNCTAD)

SIDS Intrinsic vulnerabilities
economic vulnerability based on
 exposure to foreign economic conditions
 their remoteness and insularity
 their disaster preparedness
 Effects of storms on the island

Giuseppe Scandurra et al.’s SIDS vulnerability Index

composite indicator in order to assess vulnerability
from a multidimensional perspective
SIDS are generally the most vulnerable
countries in the world, some countries are more
vulnerable than others depending on which
dimensions that are analyzed and some SIDS
are simply more vulnerable than others
 Effects of storms on the island

Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN)

 country index using data
over a 20yr period and 45
indicators ranking over
181 countries annually
based on their level of
vulnerability, and their
readiness to successfully
implement adaptation
solutions
 Effects of storms on the island

Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN)

 SIDS are not necessarily the worst in
terms of their vulnerability to and
readiness to deal with global climate
change
 Dominica, is ranked 31 in vulnerability
(on a scale of 1-178 with 1 being the
most vulnerable) but 7 in terms of
readiness (1-182 with 1 being the most
ready)
 Effects of storms on the island

“Low-carbon Development Path”

 2013 began to seriously invest in geothermal energy

 2014, the government noted that it had invested over 54M XCD to
date on the geothermal energy plant project

 2016, more than 15% of its total imports was on petroleum and
energy expenditure made up 13% of its GDP motivating the
country, along with the desire to minimize carbon emissions to
move to geothermal energy

 ban on plastic bags (effective January 1, 2019)

 Implications for Development
Strategies

 Commodified citizenship as the saving grace for continued growth?

 Should SIDS be pursuing the economic growth model set under SDGs at all?
Thank You!