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Exchange Roundtable
Dallas, TX
www.hoytnet.com
8912 East Pinnacle Peak Road • Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Phone (480) 513-0547 • Fax (480) 513-0548 • E-Mail: chrishoyt@hoytnet.com • nancyswift@hoytnet.com
Based on most recent research, the top 3 retailers shoppers rank as
literally “indispensable” to their daily lives are Wal-Mart, Target and
Costco:
Meyers Research: “Retailers Consumers Could Not Live Without” (Aug, 2004)
What lessons can Exchanges take away from this, given their
objectives and the constrictions under which they operate?
Q&A
ALA2005R3.ppt 4
The Leaders –
Snapshot of Current Vital Statistics:
Wal-Mart Target
Sales (U.S. $B) $232.9 $47.1
# Stores (U.S.) 3,711 1,313
Gross Margin 23.9% 32.8%
Operating Expenses 18.4% 22.4%
Proj. CAGR, ‘04 - ‘07 9.9% 8.9%
Positioning “Always Low Prices” “Expect More/ Pay Less”
HH Penetration 86% 62%
Sales/Sq. Foot 439 289
Inventory Turns 7.7 6.3
Days Sales In Net 21 12
Inventory
Merchandising Strategy EDLP Hi/Lo
Source: Company 10Ks & 10Qs; Hoyt & Company, LLC, 2003 - 2004
ALA2005R3.ppt 5
While Wal-Mart and Target are very different retailers, both share
the same objectives as all other retailers– specifically:
As you will see, the paths that Wal-Mart and Target have chosen to achieve
these objectives represent today’s industry Best Practices.
ALA2005R3.ppt 6
The 800 lb. Gorilla
In Every Retailer’s Living Room!
$284B – Largest company in the world – greater than the GDPs
of Austria, Colombia, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Greece,
Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and Vietnam
$20K in profit per minute!
13% WW CAGR – projected to do $1 trillion by 2014
$233B U..S. sales – CAGR of 9.9% to 2007
3,711 U.S. stores:
• 1,706 Super Centers
• 1,370 Discount
• 549 SAM’s Clubs
• 86 Neighborhood Markets
500+ new stores/remodels planned for 2005
Objective is to become the largest retailer in every market in
which it operates (now #1 in only two countries out of 10)
ALA2005R3.ppt 7
So what are the key growth drivers that enable Wal-Mart
to sustain the momentum of this juggernaut?
Buying
Logistics
ALA2005R3.ppt 8
The key elements of the Wal-Mart marketing mix – elegant and
sophisticated – way beyond just “Always Low Prices”:
ALA2005R3.ppt 9
The key elements of the Wal-Mart marketing mix (cont’d)
ALA2005R3.ppt 10
Wal-Mart strategy to drive trips/provide one-stop
shopping convenience – sell need (read “food”) items!
Wal-Mart’s March To The Top of the U.S. Food Chain: 2001 - 2010
(Food & Drug Sales Only)
2010
$195B
35%
e d
n d ts!
u e 2007
po ark Bigger than
Com erm $162B Kroger,
ear Sup Albertsons,
/Y o r 2004 Safeway and
0% F Ahold combined
17. .0% $112B
+ .4
Vs 2003 Bigger than Kroger
$95B & Albertsons
Combined
2002
$82B
Source: Retail Forward, Food Industry Outlook, February, 2004; ACNielsen, 2002 and 2003
ALA2005R3.ppt 11
The Wal-Mart Merchandising Ladder
BETTER
GOOD
OPP =
Opening Price Point in the category
(typically, Private Labels)
Source: MVI 10/28/2004
ALA2005R3.ppt 12
Wal-Mart Buying – What lies behind the glitz
Wal-Mart buyer responsibilities:
Understand customer needs and trends and set the pace of new
product development & brand strategy
ALA2005R3.ppt 13
Wal-Mart Buying – How Buyers are Measured
Wal-Mart Buyer – Key Performance Measures
ALA2005R3.ppt 14
To achieve their objectives, Wal-Mart buyers proactively
utilize suppliers to help run their business:
Wal-Mart Buyer –> Supplier Expectations
Annual plan -- rolling 12 months by month and quarter
• New items
• Tab ideas
• Modular suggestions
• MCAPS -- community store merchandising
Weekly monitoring:
• Item P&Ls vs. plan
• Sales, initial margin, markdowns, contribution margin
• Problem stores/districts, as well as items
• Competitive situations
Co-managed Inventory
• Replenishment
• New item/promotional
• Economic order quantities
Source: MVI, Selling Wal-Mart 10/28/2004
ALA2005R3.ppt 15
Wal-Mart Vendor Scorecard
Extensive measurements for Wal-Mart and Suppliers
Sales Measurements Inventory Measurements
• Overall % Increase • Replenishable store inventory
• Comps • Non-replenishable store
• Avg. Sales/Store inventory
• Sales at Full Price vs. Markdown • Warehouse inventory
• Lost sales from OOS
Markdown Measurements
• Excess inventory
• Markups and Markdowns
(Dollars, Units and %) • DC outs
• Prior and current retail price • Total owned inventory
ALA2005R3.ppt 19
Why is Wal-Mart so good at logistics?
Because the buyer’s open-to-buy is based on inventory management and
supply chain movement:
Wal-Mart Buyer Open-To-Buy
ALA2005R3.ppt 21
“Expect More/Pay Less”
$47.1B in ‘04 sales – a 15.1% increase vs. ‘03 (less Mervyn’s and Fields)
8.9% CAGR between now and 2007 – projected to do $61B versus today’s
$47B
1,313 stores – 1,177 Targets + 136 Super Targets
Comparisons to Wal-Mart are dangerous:
• Different business model
• Different consumer
• Different merchandising strategy
• No attempt to compete on same basis
Is much more like an Exchange in assortment and operations:
• Careful balance of high end vs. commodity merchandise – PLs and
exclusives are key
• Limited CPG food representation (changing quickly)
• Super centers are NOT the primary growth engine
• Distinct department store heritage and orientation
ALA2005R3.ppt 22
Target Challenges:
Narrow customer base:
• 81% female
= 71% of Trips and 80% of Spending
• 50% between 30 and 44
Low trip frequencies vs. Wal-Mart, Costco and even Dollar Stores!
ALA2005R3.ppt 23
Target Heavy Shopper Trip Frequencies – Just
Not Enough!
10.0
5.0
0.0
Kmart Target Wal-Mart Wal-Mart SAM's BJ's Costco Dollar
Trad. Trad. Trad. SC Club Stores
5.5%
5.3% 5.2%
5.0% 4.9%
4.7% 4.6%
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.8%
3.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.9% 2.8%
2.6% 2.5%
2.4% 2.3%
2.1%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Company 10Qs and monthly financial reports—MVI, Dec 09, 2004
ALA2005R3.ppt 26
So what is Target doing to achieve such
exceptional results?
Target keys to success:
Clear, concise, consistent positioning – “Expect More, Pay
Less”:
• Not just words but the basis for all buying and
merchandising decisions
• The framework for Target’s Merchandising Ladder
• A short, simple slogan that shoppers can remember and
relate-to
Non-price differentiation – Through captive brands, designer
exclusives, partnerships with other retailers, trendy P.L.
merchandise, celebrity endorsements and “Buzz Marketing”
Emotional Connection with its customers – “My Target”
ALA2005R3.ppt 27
So what is Target doing to achieve such
exceptional results, cont’d?
Heavy advertising – Over $1B in 2004 – to heighten awareness,
sell promotions and build equity for the Target name
Quick response segmented merchandising – To capitalize on
the latest generational and lifestyle shifts – expanded
pharmacies (seniors), Hispanic advertising and Merchandising,
“One Spot” (dollar sections), always on-trend merchandise (soft
goods, apparel and housewares) and seasonal promotions
Rapidly adding everyday “need” consumables to drive trips and
increase traffic – significantly expanded food sections in all
stores. Recently added extensive wine section.
ALA2005R3.ppt 28
Target Positioning: “Expect More, Pay Less”
ALA2005R3.ppt 29
Target’s “Expect More/Pay Less” Positioning has enabled Target to place
itself squarely between commodity discounters and traditional department
stores and avoid competing with either on their terms:
ALA2005R3.ppt 31
Target Buying – Supplier Mandates
Reduce cycle times—allow for “just in time inventory”
ALA2005R3.ppt 32
Target Supplier Report Card
Target’s scorecard is the most complete of the three largest
Discounters:
ALA2005R3.ppt 33
Target Supply Chain/Logistics Initiatives –
2005 and Beyond:
SKU Reduction – To facilitate focus on fewer, more important items
and be “more important to fewer vendors”
Automated Receiving Technology – Electronic labeling system that
utilizes real-time information about where product is needed:
• Automatically labels each carton
• Significantly accelerates the flow of goods
• Eliminates time-consuming, labor intensive procedure
• Rollout starting December, 2004
DPIA – Direct Import, Pre-distro & Assortment Programs
• Converts indirect imports (no middlemen) to direct
• Have suppliers pack store-specific and store ready pallets,
reducing DC workloads and storage space
• Have suppliers combine multiple items in cartons to reduce the
number of cartons sent to DCs in stores
• Estimated savings of $71MM in 2005
RFID – Mandatory for pallets and cases by spring, 2007
ALA2005R3.ppt 34
Target From The Supplier’s Standpoint:
Multiple opportunities to tie-in with Target’s marketing and
merchandising initiatives
• “Expect More/Pay Less” platform
• Target community giving/cause-related sponsorships
• Co-Marketing to build upon each other’s equity
• Current, intense emphasis on “Pay Less”
Multiple vehicles – Target TV and print advertising, circulars and
website, etc.
Supplier Aids:
• Partners On Line (POL) – provides suppliers with same data that
buyer has (like Wal-Mart’s Retail Link)
• InfoRetriever – Available to Category Captains and top vendors –
provides a deeper level of information on a more current basis + 2
years of back data
ALA2005R3.ppt 35
Net on Target: EMOTIONAL CONNECTION!
Non-price differentiation – no attempt to compete with Wal-Mart on its
own terms
Willing to settle for a piece of the pie rather than going after the whole
enchilada:
• Consumer target is not the universe but primarily women and
young singles
Clear, precise, consistent positioning that enables Target to fill the
void between commodity discounters and traditional department
stores
Unique understanding of the needs, wants and aspirations of its target
shopper:
• Designer clothes, soft goods and housewares at great prices
• Clean, uncluttered stores with contemporary colors and thematic
consistency
• Ancillary services that cater to Target shoppers lifestyles, needs
and shopping proclivities (pharmacies, Minute Clinics, photo,
Starbucks and Pizza Hut, etc.)
ALA2005R3.ppt 36
Net on Target: EMOTIONAL CONNECTION
(cont’d)
Product assortments that cannot be purchased anywhere else –
designer exclusives and captive brands, etc.
Strong, centralized control to ensure uniformity and thematic
consistency throughout all store presentations and activities
A conscious policy of transferring as many costs as possible to the
supplier community while, at the same time, offering suppliers a strong
upside through Target’s aggressive advertising, merchandising and
product exclusivity policies
Awareness of and willingness to react quickly to current issues – for
example, Target’s current campaign to significantly increase its
consumables representation to increase traffic and trip frequencies
ALA2005R3.ppt 37
While Target and Wal-Mart have each chosen to walk different paths on route to their
success, there are certain factors common to both of these retailers that make them
leading edge vs. most others in the retail community.
4. Fluid Merchandising (rapid ins and outs) – To create excitement, build
trip frequency and reinforce differentiation objectives
ALA2005R3.ppt 38
Ten factors that separate the most successful from the rest, cont’d
ALA2005R3.ppt 39
Moral of story:
ALA2005R3.ppt 40
ALA2005R3.ppt 41
A Special Thanks to Sylvia Harris and Cathy Ely
of Luke AFB for their time and hospitality . . .
ALA2005R3.ppt 42
We Appreciate The Time and Attention You Have
Given Us Today
www.hoytnet.com
8912 East Pinnacle Peak Road • Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Phone (480) 513-0547 • Fax (480) 513-0548 • E-Mail: chrishoyt@hoytnet.com • nancyswift@hoytnet.com
Appendix
ALA2005R3.ppt 44
Target and Kmart U.S. Sales vs. Wal-Mart –
Relatively Small
Wal-Mart vs. Target and Kmart Sales & Growth Projections: 1999 - 2007E
Reported Sales & MVI Projections
CAGR CAGR
(Billions USD)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 '99-'03 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E '04E- '07E
Wal-Mart
Corporation 162.9 180.0 204.2 229.8 256.5 12.0% 289.4 319.4 350.9 382.1 9.7%
Wal-Mart US 134.1 149.3 169.2 189.5 209.5 11.8% 232.9 257.5 283.5 309.4 9.9%
Target
Corporation 33.5 36.7 39.7 43.7 47.7 9.3% 46.6 51.0 55.3 59.5 8.5%
Kmart 35.9 37.0 36.2 30.8 23.3 -10.3% 20.4 19.2 19.1 19.4 -1.6%
$382.1B
Wal-Mart Corporation Wal-Mart US Target Corporation Kmart
$400
$309.4B
$300
$200
$100
$59.5B
$19.4B
100%
90% 84%
86%
80% 74%
70% 66%
60% 62% 59% 60% 60% 62%
60% 55%
49%
50%
40% 34% 35% 34%
30%
20% 17%
13% 15%
10%
0%
Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Target Kmart Costco SAM's
Trad. Total SC Total Total Club
Remodels/Relocations 160
Wal-Mart Target
3000
# of Supercenters
2500 2391
2181
1951
2000
1706
1471
1500 1258
1066
1000 888
721
500
93 118 136 150 173 196
16 30 62
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E
ALA2005R3.ppt 51
Expect More – Implementation is all about non-
replicable differentiation
Department store-like destination departments :
• Apparel • Greeting cards
• Housewares • Infants and toddlers
• Shoes • Seasonal items
Captive Brands:
• Mossimo • Waverly Garden Room
• Danskin • Liz Lange Maternity
• Philippe Starck • Hello Kitty
Exclusive Partnerships – Fieldcrest, Boots (HBA and Cosmetics) and
Amazon.com (powers the Target website)
Private Labels:
• 50% of the store
• Reinforce Target’s brand equity – all have either “Wave” or “Bulls Eye”
• Key contributor to Target’s 32% gross margin
Synergistic, complementary spin between stores and website :
• Bridal registry, “Target to a T – custom made clothes”
• Red hot shop – hot trendy items – new every week
ALA2005R3.ppt 52
Pay Less – Implementation is all about driving
trips and traffic:
Price comping – 2002 - Target pledges to match Wal-Mart on price item
for item throughout stores
Significant expansion of consumables and commodity items starting in
Q3, 2003:
• Based on new P2004 format
• 50% greater space devoted to food, beverages and snacks
• “Consumables World” department placed in front of store
• 70 remodels in 2004 – all remodels and new stores starting in 2005
“Savings Spot” – In front of store, near registers, introduced 2004:
• Club-like pack sizes
• Paper, household cleaning supplies and pet foods
“One-Spot” (Dollar departments) now expanding beyond test:
• Kitchen, storage containers, toys, baby products and stationery
• Exceptional value and “Treasure Hunt” items
• Managed by separate buying group
• Does not cannibalize other items
ALA2005R3.ppt 53
Target Ancillary Departments – Return Trip and
Transaction Size Drivers:
Pharmacies:
• 71% of stores by YE 2003
• Extended hours
• Pharmacy rewards program tied to use of Target Visa card
“Minute Clinics”:
• 135 sq. ft., staffed by a nurse practitioner
• Treats about a dozen common health problems
• Menu-priced – most services $40 - $45, covered by insurance + co-pay
• Now testing in 8 stores (BM) with plans to expand in metro areas
• 95% of MC patients get prescriptions filled at Target
Other Services:
• One hour photo labs
• Optical departments
• In-store restaurants – Starbucks, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell
• Lawn and Garden centers
• Portrait studios
• Bridal and baby gift registries
ALA2005R3.ppt 54
Target aggressively advertises its benefits through multiple
vehicles and is, in fact, the largest advertiser of the Big 3
Media Strategy:
TV is strongly seasonal/holiday oriented
Heavy print budget is targeted to women and young adults
“Unmeasured” is circulars and ROP
Senior Buyers are also eligible for a bonus plan that can represent up
to 100% of their base compensation.
ALA2005R3.ppt 56