TURKEY AND THE EU

 Government : Turkey is democratic,

secular and social state governed by
the rule of
 law; committed to the nationalism of
Atatürk and based on the principle of
the separation of
 powers;

 Legislative Power : The Turkish

Grand National Assembly

 Executive Power : President and the

Council of Ministers.

 Judicial Power : President and the

Council of Ministers.
 .
HISTORY OF TURKEY - EU RELATIONS
Key dates in Turkey's path towards the EU

 September 1959 -
Turkey applies for
associate membership
of the European
Economic Community
(EEC).
 12 September 1963 - An
Association Between The
Republic of Turkey and the
European Economic
Community (the "Ankara
Agreement").

 November 1970 - The

Additional Protocol and the
second financial protocol are
signed in Brussels, preparing
the ground for the
establishment of the
customs union.
Key dates in Turkey's path towards the EU.

 April 1987 - Turkey makes an application for full EEC

membership.
 1995 - Turkey-EU Association Council finalises the
agreement creating a customs union between Turkey
and the EU.
 December 1997 - At the Luxembourg European
Council, Turkey is declared eligible to become a
member of the European Union.
 December 1999 - EU Helsinki Council recognises
Turkey as an EU candidate country on an equal footing
with other candidate countries.
Key dates in Turkey's path towards the EU.

 May 2003 - Adoption by the Council of a

revised Accession Partnership for Turkey.

 October 2004 - The Commission presents its

Recommendation on Turkey's Progress
towards accession along with its paper Issues
Arising from Turkey's Membership
Perspective.
Key dates in Turkey's path towards
the EU.
 June 2005 - The Commission adopts a
Communication on the civil-society dialogue
between EU and Candidate countries. This
communication sets out a general framework on
how to create and reinforce links between civil
society in the EU and candidate countries.

 October 2005 - Starting of the screening process

concerning the analytical examination of the acquis.
Key dates in Turkey's path towards the EU.

 December 2006 - Due to the Turkish failure to apply

to Cyprus the Additional Protocol to the Ankara
Agreement, the Council decides that eight relevant
chapters will not be opened and no chapter will be
provisionally closed until Turkey has fulfilled its
commitment. The eight chapters are: Free Movement
of Goods, Right of Establishment and Freedom to
Provide Services, Financial Services, Agriculture and
Rural Development, Fisheries, Transport Policy,
Customs Union and External Relations.
Key dates in Turkey's path towards the EU.

 December 2007 - Negotiations are opened on

two chapters: Trans-European Networks and
Consumer and health protection.

 June 2008 - Negotiations are opened on two

chapters: Intellectual property and Company
law (June 2008).
Key dates in Turkey's path towards the EU.

 June 2009 - Negotiations are opened on the

chapter of Taxation.
EU – TURKEY ECONOMIC
RELATIONS

2010-12-01
EU - Turkey trade agreements

 the 1963 EU-Turkey

Association Agreement,
which aims at promoting
trade and economic
relations.
 Customs Union
agreement - came in
force on 31 December
1995 (CU covers
industrial goods &
processed agricultural
products)
2010-12-01
List of countries by GDP
(nominal):
IMF (International Monetary Fund) WB
(World Bank)

2010-12-01
EU’s main trade partners
(2009)

2010-12-01
Turkey’s main trade partners
(2009)

2010-12-01
EU’s trade balance with
Turkey (2005-2009)

2010-12-01
Turkey’s trade balance with
EU (2005-2009)

2010-12-01
EU imports from Turkey, by
product grouping (2005-2009)
8,5% - Agricultural products
3,6% - Fuels and mining products
3,1% - Iron and steel
3,6% - Chemicals
8,3% - Other semi-manufactures
38,2% - Machinery and transport
equipment
7,5% - Textiles
18,9% - Clothing
5,8% - Other manufactures

2010-12-01
EU exports to Turkey by
product grouping (2005-2009)

4,4% - Agricultural products

8,8% - Fuels and mining products
5,3% - Iron and steel
18,4% - Chemicals
6,2% - Other semi-manufactures
42,4% - Machinery and transport
equipment
2,2%- Textiles
1,2% - Clothing
6,4% - Other manufactures

2010-12-01
EU trade balance with Turkey
by product

2010-12-01
Arguments against Turkish Membership

 Values and culture

 Geography
 Population size and poverty
 Political power
 Relations with neighbors
 Human right and democracy
 CAP
 Budgetary costs
Values and Culture T
u
r
k
e
y
 Predominantly Muslim country (99.8 % of the i
population) s

c
u
r
r
e
n
t
l
y

t
h
Geography

 Only 3% in geographical Europe

 Turkish capital is in Asia

 Turkey's borders reach Middle Eastern nations

Population Size and Poverty

 expansion almost equal in population to that of the 2004

Enlargement

 wave of poor Turkish immigration

 high current account deficit, high debt, and high unemployment

 Unemployment

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/cceq/2005q1_cceq.pdf
Political Power

 Its almost 70 million inhabitants will bestow it

the second largest number of representatives
in the European Parliament, after Germany
Relations with Neighbors

 Cyprus dispute

 Aegean dispute
Human Rights and Democracy

 Concerns about the

Turkish state´s ability to
reach European standards
in issues as gender
equality, political
freedom, religious
freedom and minority
rights
CAP costs

 In general full membership for Turkey of the EU

would require an additional $3.1 bn of
agricultural subsidies following the existing lines
of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
Budgetary Cost Aspect (1)
 starting point

 two variants to this approach:

 a) How much would Turkey receive today if it were a fully

established member?

 b) How much is Turkey likely to receive under current

rules by a likely accession date, e.g. 2015?
Budgetary Cost Aspect (2)

a) Turkey in the EU today:

 Structural Funds, capped at 4 % of its GDP
 Turkey’s GDP around 200 billion euros- its allocation would be
around 8 billion annually
 extending the current CAP to Turkey -approximately 9 billion

b) Turkey in 2015 in an enlarged EU:

 absorption limit has been set at 4 % of recipient GDP
 Turkish GDP could reach about 4 % of the EU-28 GDP
Arguments for Turkish Membership

 Economical
 Political
 Energy Resources
 Population
Economical(1)
 Top 10 emerging markets in the world

 In 2004 and 2005, growth was above 7%

 In a few years, Turkey will have overtaken Poland and

Romania
Economical(2)
 GDP is set to grow by 6% per year on average

 Contribution to the EU budget would rise from estimated

€ 5bn in 2014 to almost € 9bn by 2020

 Turkish population: vast market for European goods and

ready labour force

 It could supplement a labour shortage in “old Europe” (by

2014, 1 in 4 Turks will be 14 or less)
Domestic and Foreign Investments

 low labour costs, closeness to a huge potential Eastern

European market and unrestricted access to the
European market would trigger massive domestic and
foreign investments into Turkey's manufacturing industry
Political

 Strong regional military power

 Second largest standing armed force in NATO and

strongest in the Muslim world

 Important geo-strategic position

 Terrorism concerns
Energy Resources

 Turkey – center plot of energy resources

 Direct piping between Russia and Iran carries natural gas

to Turkey

 Strategical papelines may help EU to maintain energy

guarantee
Population

 Muslim population would be a weight to EU multi-

culturalism efforts

 Might help to prevent potential “clash of civilizations”

 23% of Turkish population is under 15, a balance for the

increasingly aging population of the current EU
Public Opinion
 48% of EU citizens are
against Turkey joining the
EU, while about 39% are in
favor

 Citizens from new member

states

 Austria

 Sweden
THE EU COMMISSION’S 2010
‘’PROGRESS REPORT’’
TURKEY – EU RELATIONS

PARLIAMENT "ENLARGEMENT
STRATEGY AND MAIN CHALLENGES
2010-2011"
 As it had done every year
since 1998,the European
Commission (EC) on
November 9 published its
“progress report” on
Turkey,
Political Criteria.

 The constitutional reforms, approved in

the referendum held on 12 September,
create the conditions for progress in a
number of areas, such as the judiciary and
fundamental rights

 in the area of the judiciary there was

progress on implementing reforms. The
adoption of the constitutional
amendments on the composition of the
High Council of Judges and Prosecutors
was a ‘positive step’. However, the Justice
Minister still chairs the High Council and
has the last word on investigations, which
means the judiciary is still not sufficiently
independent of the executive.
 The changes were approved
by 58% of voters, much wider
than most polls had
suggested, and rejected by
42%.


 The reforms limit the competence of military courts;
restructure the constitutional court;

 widen the composition of the high council of judges and

prosecutors,

 making it more representative of the judiciary as a whole;

 broaden trade union rights in the public sector;

 provide the basis for the adoption of special measures

protecting the rights of women and children;

 guarantee protection of personal data and grant the right

to apply to an ombudsman
 Moreover, important efforts
are still needed on
fundamental rights.

 Journalists again and again

face prosecutions and
convictions, and pressure
on the media undermines
freedom of the press in
practice.
 .
 The "democratic
opening" aimed
notably at
addressing the
Kurdish issue has
produced only
limited results
 There is no
progress towards
normalisation of
bilateral
relations with
the Republic of
Cyprus.
Economic growth resumed in 2009 and accelerated
in 2010

 Recover most of the

losses incurred during
the crisis.
Privatisation and economic reforms advanced,
albeit at a slower pace.

 Unemployment is
higher than pre-crisis
levels and external
instability and
financing needs
increased.
EU Legislation

 Turkey continued improving its ability to take on the

obligations of membership by aligning its laws and
regulations with those of the EU. 

 The adoption of the State Aid Law by the Turkish Grand

National Assembly in October is an important step towards
starting accession negotiations in the area of competition.

 Much alignment remains to be done, in particular on fisheries,

social policies, justice and home affairs.

.
 Turkey remains an important partner
in the area of EU energy security.

 Turkey ratified the Intergovernmental

Agreement on Nabucco.

 The initialisation of the EU-Turkey

horizontal aviation agreement in
March 2010 paves the way for closer
cooperation between Turkey and the
EU in the aviation sector.

 Substantial progress was made
towards finalising negotiations on an
EU-Turkey readmission agreement.
 As a result of Turkey not
having fully implemented the
Additional Protocol to the
Association Agreement,
 the EU decided in December
2006 that eight negotiating
chapters could not be opened
and that no chapter could be
provisionally closed until
Turkey meets its obligations.
Conclusion:
Thank you for listening
 Alla Hurska, 
 Melike Aydin Wicik, 
 Mykola Dyedovets, 
 Justyna Weremijewicz 

 1.12.2010