mAs sure as the spring will follow the winter,

prosperity and economic growth will follow

recession
m Ôn economics, the term recession generally
describes the reduction of a country͛s gross
domestic product(GDP) for last two quarters.
m A period of reduced economic activity.
m A significant decline in the economic activity
spread across the economy, lasting more than
a few months, normally visible in real GDP
growth, real personal income, employment,
industrial production and wholesale-retail
sales.
 ATTRÔ
TES OF RECESSÔON
m Ôn macroeconomics, a recession is a negative real
economic growth, for two or more successive
quarters of an year.
m A recession has many attributes that can occur
simultaneously and can include declines in
coincident measures of activity such as employment,
investment, and corporate profits.
 Predictors of recession
m Ôn the
.S. a significant stock market drops has often
preceded the beginning of a recession.
m Ônverted yield curve.
m The three-month change in unemployment rate and
initial jobless claims.
m Ôndex of leading(economic) indicators.
 STOCK MARKET AND RECESSÔON
m Some recessions have been anticipated by
stock market declines.
m The real-estate market also usually weakens
before a recession.
 þÔSTORY OF RECESSÔON
m A global recession is a period of global
economic slowdown.
m Economists at the international monetary
fund(ÔMF)state that a global recession would
take a slow down in global growth to three
percent or less.

NÔTED STATES RECESSÔON
m The
nited States faced its first recession (the
͞panic of 1797͟) when the ank of England reached
its soil. Most of the twentieth century recessions
were caused by wars or a rise in oil prices.
m 1918-1921: After the end of the WW-Ô, production of
arms and ammunition declined.
nemployment
increased as troops returned from war. The inflation
rate surged.
m 1945: A decline in spending by the
S
government after WW-ÔÔ led to a fall in the
country͛s GDP.
m 1953: The Korean War was followed by a
period of high inflation. The Fed took
monetary measures for controlling the
situation.
m 1957: The tightened monetary policy followed by the

S since 1955 was eased by the end of 1957. This
shift in policy resulted in a budget deficit of 0.6% of
the GDP in 1958 and then to 2.6% of the GDP in
1959.
m 1973-74: The OPEC increased oil prices. On the other
hand, high spending by the
S government during
the Vietnam War led to economic stagnation and
inflation.
m Early 1980s: The 1979 energy crisis after the
Ôranian Revolution led to a rise in oil prices
and a cut in its supply.
m 2001: The bursting of the dot-com bubble,
9/11 attacks and various accounting scandals
contributed to a dip in the North American
economy.
m 2007-2009: The collapse of the housing
market led to the bankruptcy of financial
institutions. Credit crunch followed. Stock
markets crashed.
m The global recession of 2008 was a major
downturn in the economic history of the
world.
 ÔMPACT OF
S RECESSÔON ON ÔNDÔA
m A credit crisis in the united states might lead to a
§
§§


  at pension funds.
m Ôn terms of specific sectors the Ô    
§


 §  since a majority of Ôndian ÔT firms
derive 75% or more of their revenues from the
S.
m The 
§
 §
 §
 
  
, and improve productivity and operational
efficiency, thus lowering prices, if it wishes to offset
the loss of revenue from a possible
S recession.
 Cont͙.
m A recession in united states may see the 




 
in india.the concept of social
security, that has been absent until now,may
gain momentum.
 CA
SES OF RECESSÔON
m C
RRENCY CRÔSES.
m ENERGY CRÔSES.
m WAR.
m
NDERCONS
MPTÔON.
m OVER PROD
CTÔON.
 EFFECTS OF RECESSÔON
m ANKR
PTCÔES.
m CREDÔT CR
NCþES.
m DEFLATÔON(OR DÔSÔNFLATÔON).
m FORECLOS
RES.
m
NEMPLOYMENT.
 REMEDÔES
m The accurate and effective remedy to prevent
and overcome global recession is global
perspective.
m R Ô needs to neutralize the outflow of money.
m Public should spend wisely & save more.
m Ôn ÔT sector there should be correction in
salary offerings rather than job cutting.
 Cont͙
m Taxes including excise duty and custom duty
should be reduced.
m Ôn real estate the builders should drop prices.
m Government should try and improve liquidity.
 ENEFÔTS OF RECESSÔON
m A lot of people think that recession is bad
while that is partly true. There are certain
benefits:-
ü opportunities for entrepreneurs to start
new business(low interest rates).
ü enefits service class(tax cuts).
ü Low attrition rates helps companies(cost
savings).
ü Ôncreased retirement age.
 CONCL
SÔON
m ͞we are not in recession. We are not going to
be in recession. Recovery is on the horizon.
The decks are clear. The economy is in direct
drive.͟
TþANK YO