Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
A. Amitava Sengupta
B. Director (Fin & Comm.)
C. Petronet LNG Ltd.
New Delhi
January 19, 2010
OVERVIEW
India Energy Scenario
Demand Supply of Natural Gas
Sectoral Analysis
India’s Energy Security
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Indian Energy Demand Scenario
Gas
Total Energy
Hydro Nuclear Coal
Year Oil (MTOE) Consumption in
(MTOE) (MTOE) (MTOE) (MTOE) BCM
MTOE
2007-08 11 4.4 216 140 40 33 410
2011-12 12 17 257 166 44 49 496
2016-17 18 31 338 214 64 71 665
2021-22 23 45 464 278 97 108 907
2026-27 29 71 622 365 135 150 1222
2031-32 35 98 835 486 197 219 1651
% Growth
Source: Integrated 6%
Energy Policy, 11% 6%2006
of the Gov., August 5% 7% 7.2
Assumptions: (1) GDP growth assumed to be 9% (2) Population growth assumed to be 1.1% (3) Includes only commercial energy requirements
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Indian Energy Supply Scenario
India Primary Energy Projected Supply (indigenous) by fuel
(Mtoe)
Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CAGR
Oil 45 45 55 55 50 0.53
Natural Gas 39 49 56 58 58 2.00
Coal 218 220 230 235 250 0.70
Nuclear Energy
8 14 22 29 32 7.18
Hydro electric
23 29 36 41 44 3.22
Total 333 357 399 417 434 1.34
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INDIA’S GAS DEMAND SUPPLY
(PETRONET ESTIMATE)
244.29 217.55
206.97
222.67
179.42
181.08
6
Natural Gas in Power Sector
MW Installed at end of 10th Plan Target (11thPlan) Actual Nov. 2009 Capacity Added
Hydro 34654 15627 36885 2232
Coal 71091 52850 81606 10515
Gas 13722 6843 16823 3101
Diesel 1202 0 1200 NA
Sub-Total 86015 59693 99628 13614
Nuclear 3900 3380 4120 220
Renewable 7761 0 15225 7465
Total 132329 78700 155859 23530
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Natural Gas in Power Sector cont…
As per CEA estimates, the base power demand in India is
expected to rise from 775 billion units currently to 1400
billion units i.e. CAGR of 7.5% with a potential latent
demand of 1300 billion units to match per capita energy
consumption of China or Brazil.
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Natural Gas vs Coal based Power
Relative cost of electricity w/o and with CO2 Capture
Studies MIT GTC AEP GE
PC No-capture,
1 1 1 1
Ref. Case
PC Capture 1.6 1.69 1.84 1.58
IGCC no-capture 1.05 1.11 1.08 1.06
IGCC Coal
•PC: Pulverized capture
(Super Critical) IGCC:1.35 1.39
Integrated Gasification 1.52
Combined Cycle 1.33
• From MIT Coal Study (2007) Gasification Technology Council (GTC), General Electric (GE) & American Electric Power (AEP)
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Natural Gas in Fertilizer Sector
Feedstock-wise production capacity Demand
Period
No. of Production (MMSCMD)
Feedstock %Share
Units Capacity mtpa
2009-10 58
Gas 19 15 72
Naphtha 7 4 17 2010-11 64
FO/LSHS 4 2 10
2011-12 76
Total 30 21 100
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Natural Gas in Industry (incl. Petrochem & Sponge Iron)
Sector
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
(MMSCMD)
Industrial 17.17 18.38 19.66
PetroChem/
37.15 39.15 39.15
Refineries
Sponge Iron 6.87 7.35 7.86
Total 53.09 56.81 60.77
Industrial sector consumers are ceramic, glass and other
manufacturers
Total 8 petrochemical with 2.55 mtpa capacity and 40% gas based
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India’s Energy Security
India’s energy security aims at:
Asia Pacific 84.2 90.4 90.2 88.7 90.7 104.6 115.3 92.1
Europe 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Middle East 76.9 94.5 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.3 98.3 98.3
North Africa 31.3 31.3 31.9 35.0 36.4 41.4 42.8 42.8
North America 0.8 0.2 - - - - - -
South America 16.2 18.7 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 16.2 9.4
West Africa 21.7 23.8 25.0 27.9 30.1 30.3 29.7 24.6
Total: 235.2 263.0 268.6 273.2 278.7 298.1 306.3 271.2
LNG Demand
Region 2,010.0 2,011.0 2,012.0 2,013.0 2,014.0 2,015.0 2,020.0 2,025.0
Asia Pacific 122.1 132.2 141.9 145.9 156.3 168.1 186.6 227.5
Europe 60.4 69.4 71.2 72.2 75.3 81.1 148.1 169.0
North America 34.6 44.8 43.6 39.3 26.9 26.0 20.7 17.3
South & East Africa - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
South America 3.2 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.5 5.9
Total: 220.2 250.4 260.9 261.8 263.2 279.9 361.3 420.2
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Surplus/Deficit 15.0 12.6 7.7 11.4 15.5 18.2 (55.0) (149.0)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Step Forward
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