PR

OB Taking you to
AB
IL the WORLD OF
IT PROBABILITY
Y
 Enjoy Randomness – World of
PRProbability!!!
OB
Distan

AB
ce

IL
IT Time

Y
PR
P
OB
R
AB
O
IL
B
IT
AY
BI
LI
T
PR
OB
AB
IL
IT
First…
Y

…Some basics about Probability

P Basics of Probability …
R Probability is the study of
O randomness and uncertainty.
B 

A A Probability is a Numerical
Measure
BI of the Likelihood of Occurrence of
LI an event; more it is , more is the
likelihood of happening of an
T
P Building Blocks of
Probability…
R
O
B
A
BI
LI
T
P What makes to define
PROBABILITY?
R
O
B
A EVENT

BI
LI
T
P RANDOM EXPERIMENT
R … is a process that lead to more than one

O possible outcome and each outcome is

uncertain.

B 
… is a process leading to at least two possible
outcomes with uncertainty as to which will
A 
occur.

BI … is any procedure
1.that can be repeated, theoretically or otherwise, an

LI infinite number of times;

2.that has a well-defined set of possible outcomes; and

T 3.the outcome that will prevail in a given experience is

uncertain.
P SAMPLE OUTCOME
R
Each of the potential eventualities
O of a random experiment is defined
B 
as sample outcome.

A 
Possible outcomes of a random
BI experiment is called Sample
LI Outcome.

T
P SAMPLE SPACE
R
O The totality of all eventualities of a
random experiment is called
B 
Sample Space.

A 

BI Complete set of all possible

outcomes of a random experiment
LI is called Sample Space.

T
P EVENT
R … is any subset of a sample space.
O 

B … is any designated collection of sample
outcomes, including individual
A outcomes, the entire sample space, and
the null set.
BI 

LI 
… is a subset of basic outcomes of the
T sample space.
P Events may be …
R
O • Simple, Joint or Compound.
•
B •
A • Discrete or continuous.

BI •

LI
T
 P Please note and
remember…
R
O
B
if a n y o f th e b a sic o u tco m e s co m p risin g th e e ve n t o

oAccu r o f th e o u tco m e o f th e exp e rie n ce is o n e th e m

BI
LI
T
 P Each event can be expressed
as a SET!!!!
R
eO
re is a stro n g co n n e ct b e tw e e n E V E N T a n d S e t T h e

B
A
BI
LI
T
 Since sets can be represented
P by Venn Diagrams; so our
R EVENTS!!!!!!

O
B
A
BI
LI
T
P Sample Space is our Universal
Set!!!
R
O U

B
A
BI
LI
T
Universal set – Sample Space
P Any subset of Universal Set is
an event!!!
R
O U

B
A A

BI
LI
T
Event A
P Let’s revise our Set Theory
R Union
O 
B Intersection

A 
Complement
BI
LI
T
P Back to the definition of
the Probability
R
O that an uncertain event
Probability – the chance

1 Certain

B between 0 and 1)
will occur (always

A 
.5

BI Please note that …

P(U) = 1; and P(ϕ) = 0.
LI 0 Impossib

T le
P Probability Notation
R
O If E is an event, then P(E) represents

B the probability that event E occurs.

A It is read “the probability of E.”

BI
LI
T
P Basics of Probability …Probability
Space
R A Probability Space is generally
O characterized by (Ω, F, P) where ...
B ◦ Ω is the Sample Space; also called

A space of elementary events.

BI ◦ F is a class of events in a random

experiment.
LI ◦ P is a probability measure defined
T over F.
P Basics Theories
of Probability …
of Probability
R
Classical Theory of Probability
O 
B Relative Frequency Theory of
A  Probability

BI Subjective Theory of Probability

LI 
T Axiomatic Theroy of Probability
P Probability of an Event – Classical
Theory
R
O
B
A
BI
LI In this case , we can represent the
probability of an event as P ( E ) = f / N .

T
P The Law of Large Numbers – Relative
Frequency Theory
R
O  The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) says that the
long-run relative frequency of repeated

B independent events gets closer and closer to

a single value.
A 

BI  We call the single value the probability of the

event.
LI 

T  Because this definition is based on repeatedly

P The Nonexistent
Law of Averages
R The LLN says nothing about short-run
O 
behavior.

B Relative frequencies even out only in the

long run, and this long run is really long
A 
(infinitely long, in fact).

BI The so called Law of Averages (that an

outcome of a random event that hasn’t
LI occurred in many trials is “due” to
occur) doesn’t exist at all.
T
P Personal Probability
R In everyday speech, when we express a
O degree of uncertainty without basing it
on long-run relative frequencies, we are
B stating subjective or personal
probabilities.
A 
Personal probabilities don’t display the
BI kind of consistency that we will need
probabilities to have, so we’ll stick with
LI formally defined probabilities.

T
P Probability Axioms...
R
Probability is defined as a function P from
O subsets of outcome space  τ η α τ
B ι σ F, τ o the real line  that satisfies
following conditions:
A 1.Non-negativity: P(A)  0

BI 2.Additivity: if AB= then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)

LI 3.Probability of whole space is 1. P() = 1

T
P Basic Properties of
Probabilities
R
O
B
A
BI Again, the probability of an event reports the
likelihood of the event’s occurrence. We write P(E)
for the probability of the event E, and 0 ≤ P(E) ≤

LI 1.

T
 Some Basic Relationships of
P Probability
R
There are some basic probability
O
•

relationships that
•can be used to compute the probability of an

B event
•without knowledge of all the sample point

probabilities.
A Complement
Complement of
of an
an Event
Event

BI Union
Union of
ofTwo
Two Events
Events

LI Intersection
Intersection of
ofTwo
Two Events
Events

T Mutually
Mutually Exclusive
Exclusive Events
Events
P Complement of an Event
R
O The
The complement
complement of
consisting
consisting of
of all
of event
event AA isis defined
all sample
sample points
defined to
points thatthat are
to be
are not
be the
not in
the event
in A.
A.
event

B The of A is denoted by Acc

The complement of A is denoted by A ..
complement

A Event A Ac Sample
BI Space U

LI
1 = A +Ac
T 1 – A =Ac
P Union of Two Events
R
O The
The union
all
union of
all sample
of events
events AA and
sample points
points that
and BB isis the
that are
are in
in AA or
the event
event containing
or BB or
containing
or both.
both.

B The
The union
union of
of events
events AA and
and BB isis denoted by AA ∪
denoted by ∪ BB..

A
Sample
BI Event A Event B Space S

LI
T
P Intersection of Two Events
R
O The
The intersection
sample
intersection of
sample points
of events
points that
events AA and
that are
are in
in both
and BB isis the
both AA and
and BB..
the set
set of
of all
all

B The
The intersection
intersection of
of events
events AA and
and BB isis denoted
denoted by ∩ ΒΒ ..
by AA ∩

A
BI Event A Event B
Sample
Space S

LI
T Intersection of A and B
P Addition Law
R
O The
The addition
addition law
probability
probability of
law provides
provides aa way
of event
event AA,, or
way to
or BB,, or
to compute
or both
compute the
both AA and
the
and BB occurring.
occurring.
B The
The law
law isis written
written as:
as:

A P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

BI
LI
T
P Mutually Exclusive Events
R
O Two
Two events
events are
events
events have
are said
have no
said to
no sample
to be
be mutually
mutually exclusive
sample points
points in
exclusive ifif the
in common.
common.
the

B Two
Two events
events are
are mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive if,
if, when
when one
one event
event
A occurs,
occurs, the
the other
other cannot
cannot occur.
occur.

BI Sample
Space S
LI Event A Event B

T
P Mutually Exclusive Events
R
O IfIf events
events AA and
and BB are
are mutually exclusive, PP((AA ∩
mutually exclusive, ∩ BB)) == 0.
0.

B The
The addition
addition law
law for
for mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive events
events is:
is:
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
A
BI there’s no need to
LI include “− P(A ∩ B) ”

T
P Conditional Probability
R
O The
The probability
has
probability of
has occurred
of an
an event
occurred isis called
event given
given that
called aa conditional
that another
another event
conditional probability
event
probability..

B The
The conditional
conditional probability
probability of
of AA given
given BB isis denoted
denoted

A
by
by PP((AA|B
|B).).

A
Aconditional
conditional probability
probability isis computed
computed as
as follows
follows ::
BI P(A ∩B)
P(A| B) =
LI P(B)

T
P Multiplication Law
R
O The
The multiplication
multiplication law
probability
probability of
of the
law provides
provides aa way
the intersection
intersection of
way to
of two
to compute
compute the
two events.
events.
the

B The
The law
law isis written
written as:
as:
A P(A ∩ B) = P(B)P(A|B)

BI
LI
T
P Independent Events
R
O IfIf the
the probability
probability of of event
event AA isis not
not changed
changed byby the
the
existence
existence of of event
event BB,, we
we would
would say say that
that events
events AA
B and
and BB areare independent
independent..

A Two
Two events
events AA and
and BB are
are independent
independent ifif::

BI P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)

LI
T
P Summarizing the laws of
Probability …
R
O
B
A
BI
LI
T
P Laws of Probability...
R Additive Law:
O ◦ If A and B are two events, then
•

B •
P ( A U B )= P ( A ) +P ( B )- P ( A I B )

A ◦ If events A and B are mutually exclusive

events, then
BI ◦ P (A U
B ) P=
(A) P (+
B)

LI
T
P Laws of Probability...
R Multiplicative Law:
O ◦ If A and B are events, then
•

B P ( A I B )= P ( A ) P ( B | A )= P ( B ) P ( A | B )
◦ If events A and B are independent, then

A ◦
P ( A  B ) = P ( A) P ( B )
◦ The conditional probability of the event A
BI given the event B is -

LI P ( A | B )=
P( A I B)

T P (B)