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By:
Neha Sharma
Priyanka Bharti
Prashant Gupta
Manish Kumar
Probability Basics
A random variable is an uncertain quantity.
P(A∪B) – prob. of A or B
Experiment:
Throw a die. A = number > 4. B = even number.
Find P(A), P(B), P(A∪B) and P(A∩B)
Uniform distributions
Every outcome in the sample space is
equally probable.
eg tossing coins
rolling dice
drawing a card from a deck
Joint probability
P(A,B) is the prob. of having both A and
B.
Joint probability distributions describe
the probs. of all possible permutations of
events using random variables.
Simple formula
Probability Of An Event, P(A) =
The Number Of Ways Event A Can Occur
The total number Of Possible Outcomes
Conditional probability
P(A | B) – the prob. of A happening
given that B has occurred.
P ( A, B ) P ( A B )
P( A | B)
P( B) P( B)
Independence
If events A and B do not influence each
other then:
P(A | B) = P(A)
and
P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B)
Chain rule
P ( A1 , A2 , , An )
P( A1 ) P( A2 | A1 ) P( A3 | A1 , A2 ) P( An | A1 , An 1 )
Bayes’ theorem
P ( B | A) P ( A)
P( A | B)
P( B)
Problem 1
When two six sided dice are tossed, what is the expected value of
the sum of the faces?
Solution
Outcome Sum No. of ways
(1,1) 2 1
(1,2), (2,1) 3 2
(1,3), (2,2), (3,1) 4 3
(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1) 5 4
(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2) (5,1) 6 5
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) 7 6
(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2) 8 5
(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3) 9 4
(4,6), (5,5), (6,4) 10 3
(5,6), (6,5) 11 2
(6,6) 12 1
36
Solution Cont…
= (1) (2) + (2) (3) + (3) (4) + (4) (5) + (5) (6) + (6) (7) + (5) (8)
+ (4) (9) + (3) 10) + (2) (11) + (1) (12)
36
= (2+6+12+20+30+42+40+36+30+22+12) / 36
= 7
Problem 2
A fair coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability that it lands up
tail at least once?
Solution
= 31⁄32
Problem 3
There are ten sprinters in the Olympic finals. How many different
ways can the gold, silver, bronze medals be awarded? Assume dead
heat is not possible.
Solution
Solution
If we want exactly two men and two women, we can choose in 6C2
x 4C2 ways
= 3⁄7
Problem 5
What is the probability of drawing an Ace or a Spade from a deck of
cards?
Solution
No. of Aces = 4
No. of Spades = 13
= 16
Probability = 16C1 / 52C1 =16 ⁄ 52
= 4⁄13
Problem 6
80% of all tourists who come to India visit Delhi, 70% of them visit
Mumbai and 60% visit both. What is the probability that the tourists
will visit Mumbai or Delhi or both? What is the probability of not
visiting both Mumbai and Delhi?
Solution
10 60 20
Mumbai Delhi
Required probability = 10 + 60 + 20 = 90%
= .9
Problem 7
20
Required probability
= (10)(.05)(.95)9
= .3151
= 31.51%
21