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Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Elements push states to the war
Interest
Fear
Honor/prestige
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Causes of War
Kenneth Waltz provides three level of analysis to explain the
causes of War.
1- The Individual.
Its about psychological behaviour of an individual.
Leader is aggressive.
Ruler is irrational.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
2 – State/Society
When a society has domestic issues:
1. Poor economy,
2. Ethnic divisions,
3. Political inconsistencies,
4. Civil military issues or dictatorship.
Rulers divert the attention of the masses by going into war.
Rulers do it for two reasons;
1. Greater Internal cohesion
2. Prolong rule.
Examples: India, Iran, and North Korea.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Question?
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
3 - International System
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Why did Iraq invade Kuwait in 1990?
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Iraq/Kuwait war 1990: Three level Analysis
Individual Level
Saddam was dictator, aggressive, insecure.
He miscalculated, no one will come to rescue.
State/Society Level
Attack on Kuwait served to unite Iraqis divided on religious and
ethnic lines.
Historic claims of territory & Iraq needed more oil to overcome
poor economy.
International Level
Iraq had ambitions for regional domination – Iraq war was just
the start.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Total war
Objectives: Social and Economic.
Objectives: Political.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Civil Wars
1. Control of territory,
2. Control of Capital,
3. Toppling govt.,
4. Establishment of govt.
Many conflicts during the Cold War, such as the Korean War,
Vietnam War, and Afghanistan War.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Guerrilla war
A strategy of asymmetrical warfare, where weaker party often
utilizes population for supplies like food, shelter, & intelligence.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Strategic Culture: Determinants of
Strategic Culture of Pakistan.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Definition
“Strategic culture is a set of beliefs, norms, values, and
historical experiences of the elite that influences its threat
perception and shapes its responses to the threats.” (Rizvi)
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Pakistan’s Strategic Culture
Pakistan is one of the least secure countries on the planet.
Why?
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Pakistan’s roots of insecurity
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Dhaka Fall in 1971 deepened threat perception that India wanted
to re-unify India, or to reduce Pakistan to mere Bhutan &
Maldives etc.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Key Determinants of Pak's Str. Culture
Opposition
Irredentism
to Indian
of Afghanistan
Hegemony
Islam
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
(1) Opposition to Indian Hegemony.
In 1944 & 1946, QA MA Jinnah proposed India & Pakistan to
proclaim a Monroe Doctrine;
“We join together as good friends and neighbours and say to
the world, Hands off India.”
Conspired in 1971.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
(3) Role of Islam in SC of Pakistan.
Islam shapes societal character & thinking of policy makers.
Islam is closely associated, “Islamic Republic of Pakistan”.
No law can be enacted that violates the basic principles and
teachings of Islam.
All political parties recognize the centrality of Islam.
Education sector at all levels covers Islamic studies.
National narratives glorify Islam, Muslim identity, and Muslim
rule over India.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
National Security Policy guidelines
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
1 Acquire Nuclear Capability for Deterrence
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
3 Stability on Western Borders
Old Policy
Curtailing nationalism.
Keeping India away from Afghanistan.
Friendly relations with Afghanistan.
New Policy (After 9/11)
Contain Taliban & alike militant group.
Check the Influx of refugees,
Check drugs trafficking
Efforts to stabilize Afghanistan
Have friendly or at least neutral Afghanistan.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Ensuring India out of Afghanistan.
Conclusion:
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Two Perspective about Nuclear Weapons;
Phil Williams
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Simply “dissuasion by means of threat”.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Deterrence in Nuclear Era
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Why States go Nuclear?
Security challenges,
Technological imperatives,
1 Capability
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Deterrence Effects
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Steps in Deterrence
Evaluate interests at the stake (e.g. Pulwama)
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Nuclear Deterrence in Indo-Pak case …
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Conclusion:
Negative View;
Indo - Pak nuclearization has not deterred 1999 Kargil,
2001-2002 standoff, and 2019 dogfight.
Positive View;
Nuclear deterrence has successfully prevented war.
Kargil was not a war between two states.
Indo–Pak agree on nuclear risk-reduction measures, e.g.
non-attack on each other’s nuclear installations &
Missile Test/military exercise notifications.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Questions ..
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.