Climate Crisis in the

Philippines

Climate Change Discussion

Citizen's Disaster Response Center
December 3, 2009

AGHAM
Samahang Nagtataguyod ng Agham at
Teknolohiya Para sa Sambayanan
Outline
 Introduction
 The science of global warming
 Who is to blame?
 Climate crisis in the Philippines
 False solutions

People's responses
 Our calls
Introduction
one billion people are hungry

Great and exciting advances 160 million more malnourished

e.g. Information technology, every day world wide: 70,000
persons join hungry and starving
automation, genetics and masses

medicine

Greatest challenges

Famine and hunger, rapid
ecological destruction, breakdown
of health systems, social decay
and disintegration

The Philippines is rich in resources
but our people are in deep poverty
and face high environmental risk
Our environment is interlinked

Man’s interaction with nature

Resources for the production of
his needs

Food, clothing, shelter

Tools, processes, technologies

Man’s interaction with man

Relations with others

Dominance of a segment of
society over others

Current dominance of monopoly
capital 4
What is Climate Change?

5
Climate and weather
• The weather is the • The climate is the
particular state of long term weather
the atmosphere in a trend of a certain
certain region at a region over a time
certain time period
• Ex. Rainy/Maulan, • Ex. Tropical
Warm/mainit,
Windy/mahangin,
Cloudy/maulap
6
Climate Change:Global warming
• Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses
gases (UNFCCC)

Projections of Surface Temperature Change 7

Accelerated temperature change

 1900’s – hottest century

 1995 to 2006, (except
1996) - hottest decade
 2005 and 1998 – hottest
years

(Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia,

Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Data set TaveGL2v,
Jones and Moberg, 2003)
Greenhouse Effect

(a) Rays of sunlight pwarm the (b) Earth's surface absorbs muchcoming (c) As concentrations of greenhouse
earth's surface. degrades it to longer-wavelength gases rise, more heat to the
infrared radiation (heat), which rises lower atmosphere.
iabsorbed by molecules of greenhouse
gases awarms the lower atmosphere.

9
Greenhouse Gases
 Carbon dioxide CO2 – considered as the most important GHG.
About 80% of the GHG emissions. Burning of oil and gas (for
heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing,
deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally through
photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires.
 Methane CH4 - third most common GHG ; Oil and gas
production, coal mining, rice paddies, dams, landfills. Occurs
naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion.
 Nitrous oxide N2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood,
fertilizers, coal mining. Also occurs naturally.
 OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF6,
Perfluocarbons PFCs, Hydroflurocarbons HFCs
10
Rise in global surface temperature

"Projected temperature
changes, 2000 to 2100
scenario." 2005.
UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov
2009
Rise in sea level

Trends in sea level, 1870-2006 June 2007. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009 .

Global changes in precipitation

Precipitation changes: trends over land from 1900 to 2000.

2005. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009
Effects of global warming

14
 Increasing Strength and frequency
of Typhoons (Category 4/5)

15

Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005

Extreme Weather Events

16
5 Most Vulnerable Countries
World Bank, 2009

Malawi – drought
Sudan –drought
Bangladesh – rising sea level
Vietnam - flood
Pilipinas - typhoon
 “ The entire Philippines is a climate hotspot.”
 1 meter rise in sea level may effect 64 out
of 81 provinces, 703 of the 1,610
municipalities ~ 700 M sqm of land across
the country from 2095 to 2100.


Affected provinces include: Palawan,
Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte,
Catanduanes, Masbate, Samar, Northern
Samar, Bohol, Cebu, Capiz, Negros
Occidental, Davao del Norte, Zamboanga
Sibugay, Zamboanga del Norte,
Zamboanga del Sur, Tawi-tawi,
Maguindanao, Sulu

Source: Greenpeace. The Philippines, A Climate hotspot.

Changes in climate are already causing harm

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There’s a consistent 50-year upward trend in every region except Oceania.

Estimated mortality attributable to
climate change
Philippines is disaster prone

 In 2008, 253 natural and human-induced

disasters affecting 8.5 million people
 Most devastating disaster: tropical cyclones
affecting more than 1 million (Typhoon Frank;
internal displacements affecting 684,682 (landing as
in top place according to the Norwegian Refugee
Center)
 In 2009, Disaster figures will surely double the
2008 figures
 Ondoy, Pepeng, floodings in Mindanao
21
Children/Women and Climate Change
 More than 46% of the world's
population is now younger than 25
years old.
Source: UNICEF UK Climate Change
Report 2008
 Approximately 175 million children
will be affected by climate change
induced natural disasters every year
over the next decade. This is 50
million more than during the ten years
to 2005. About 5-12 M women &
children were affected by water-
based infectious diseases
(Schistosomiasis resulting to bloody
urine and liver disorder)
Source: Legacy of Disasters; Children Bear the Brunt
of Climate Warming, Save the Children UK 2007; Ibon 22
Primer on Climate Change
Poor countries like the Philippines
are vulnerable to enhanced hazards
due to climate change
100%

 Impacts are worse 80%

Percentage affected
Lack of financial,institutional 60% LDC
 Dev'ing
CIT

and technological capacity 40%

Dev'ed

and access to knowledge 20%

0%
 Impact disproportionately 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

upon poor within countries 4,000

Number affected (Millions)

Exacerbates inequities in
3,000

Dev'ed

health status and access

CIT
2,000
Dev'ing
LDC

to adequate food, clean 1,000

water and other resources. -

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Who are the world's largest emitter of
green house gases?

US is the largest
emtter in volume
and per capita

Top 20 greenhouse gas emitters

(including land use change and
forestry). 2009. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 19 Nov 2009
Who is the largest historical GHG
emitter?

25
CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere highest in the
past 650,000 years.
Increase of CO2 - from 280
parts per million (ppm)
before industrial period to
379 ppm in 2005.

26
Historical context

Unprecedented rise in
GHG production and
concentration on the
onset of capitalist
system

Industrial revolution

Modern technology

Intensive use of
machines and fossil
fuels for transportation,
trade and energy. 27
CO2 emissions from industry
Imperialism and Global Warming

Characteristics of
capitalist production

Production for profit

Anarchic

Wasteful and pollutive

Monopoly on production,
resources, capital

Division of the world –
market, raw materials and
war
29
Plunder and war
 Free market globalization
policies
 Unhampered entry, control
and exploitation of raw
natural resources and of
people.

Atrocious campaigns of
wars of aggression

Gain direct or tighter
control of land and natural
resources.
 Gain control over markets
30
Third world industries


Cheap labor for
reassembly of parts and
reexport of goods

Use older production
equipment

Dumping grounds for
finished goods and wastes

31
Role of International Finance
 International finance capital
 Stimulate production and
sale of consumer goods
 Cover debt service burden
and budgetary deficits
 Developing countries forced
to follow rescriptions of the
IMF and the WB which open
up resources and markets

32
Global warming worsens the impact
of imperialist plunder
 Under a systerm where profit is the primary
objective of societal production, the
environment and our ecosystems are reduced
to being a source of raw materials and dumping
ground for wastes.

Under such a system, countries which top the
list in terms of profit and industrial might also
become the world's foremost culprits of
environmental degradation.

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Environmental crisis in the Philippines

Large scale plunder of
the environment

Without benefit to the
majority of our people

Benefits only a small
segment of society

Large scale effect on
society

11/23/09 34
The role of extractive industries in
the Philippines
 Deforestation 100

90

80
- Forest cover is estimated in 2000 to have
fallen to only 18% of the total land area 70

(ideal is 54% of land area) 60

Percent cover
50

 Large-scale mining 40

30

Large scale TNC plunder in mining is one 20

of the main causes of environmental 10

degradation in the country 0

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Year

Source: CEC 35
GHG emissions in the Philippines
 Transport (34%), Energy (29%), Energy

Industry (17%), Agriculture

29%

(10%), Others (10%)

Transport

Transport
34%



Oil industry controlled by Big 3
Others

Second hand engines

10%


 Most industrial activity is

extractive and export oriented
Agriculture
10%

Industrial
17%

 Energy industry – privatized

under EPIRA Greenhouse gas
mitigation strategy: The
Philippine Experience (Oct
2001)
Climate change aggravates
environmental hazards
 In the Philippines, disasters whether climate-
induced or not add up to the already
impoverished situation of the majority of Filipino
families who are living below the poverty line
 The harmful effects of climate change and the
disasters it induced bear heavily on the most
vulnerable or marginalized segments of the
Philippine population especially the poor
peasants
Vulnerability
 Factors and conditions
adversely affecting the ability
of the community to
respond,cope with or recover
easily from disaster events.

High Poverty Incidence

High Inflation Rates
 Low wages despite the
increasing daily cost of living

High unemployment and
underemployment rate
 Landlessness/Inequitable
distribution of country’s
resources
 Government policies aggravates our
climate vulnerability
 Oct. 29 – Arroyo signed Climate Change Act of
2009 (RA 9729) Climate Change Commission
 Other destructive policies
 EPIRA
 Biofuels Act
 Oil deregulation law
 Mining Act 1995
 Forestry Code
 Neoliberal Globalization
 Corruption
 Bureaucrat Capitalism
False solutions
Kyoto Protocol 1997
 International agreement under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)

reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5%
between 2008-2012 relative to 1990
 The flexibility mechanisms – carbon trading
 Funding mechanisms to assist developing
countries
 175 countries except US and Australia (Australia
later signed on Kyoto)
 The Kyoto Protocol

All industrialized governments, except the US
and Australia have ratified the Kyoto Protocol


The US stated that the Kyoto Protocol was
flawed policy because it was neither fair nor
effective and not in the best interests of the US


scientific uncertainties – Article 3 (precautionary
principle)
Failure of mitigation limits


Failure of the 1997 Kyoto
Protocol to reduce GHG
emission

 After 12 years, GHG

emission continues to
accelerate..
Monopoly capital seeks to profit
more from the climate crisis
 Carbon offset mechanisms shift out
carbon mitigation and reduction out of
industrialized countries towards
developing countries.


Distort development activities while
keeping consumption and production
activities of industrialized countries.

44
Asymmetric responsibility and
vulnerability
 Inverse relationship between
climate change vulnerability
and responsibility

Primary emitter countries must
change their production
activities and consumption of
energy and seek sustainable
solutions.
 Basic human needs, economic
and social development need
adequate energy and
infrastructure.
45
Clean Development Mechanisms
 Clean Development
Mechanisms (CDM)
and carbon trading
effectively marketize
carbon emissions
 Shuffles around
responsibility to curb
emissions.
 Does not address
issue of
overproduction
UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Post-Kyoto/COP 15
 Copenhagen, Denmark 2009
 Opportunity to overhaul Kyoto Protocol
 Obama, Gloria announcement in APEC summit
effectively postpones any discussion in COP 15 about
a replacement of the Kyoto protocol
 Possibly in Mexico later (COP16??)
 Other calls to peg targets (see 350.org)
Technology solutions

 Biofuels
 Renewable Energy
 Nuclear plants
 REDD
 Geoengineering
Carbon capture and
Storage (CCS)
Lifestyle changes?
 “Lifestyle change/footprint”
 Make CFLs cheap and accessible
 Provide cheap and accessible “renewable” power
 Provide cheap and accessible technology
 Engage in local production of goods (national
industrialization)
 Do not sell out energy resources

Banning technologies that are pollutive

Develop products that are cost effective
 Mass transport
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People's Initiatives
 Community based disaster
response - Capacity building for
vulnerable communities
 Defend our patrimony and
communities against foreign and
local plunder
13 metallic minerals (7.1 B MT)
29 non-metallic (51 B MT)
Gold (2nd)
Copper (3rd)
Biodiversity area
People's Initiatives
 Popularize and implement
proper and sustainable use of
our natural resources – in line
with people's welfare and
interests, proper technology,
and mitigation measures
 Popularize correct
perspective towards
environmental issues – pro-
people, patriotic, and
scientific orientation
Multisectoral formations
 Philippine Climate
Watch Alliance: broad,
national
 People's Action on
Climate Change: c
International
 People's Movement on
Climate Change:
International, People's
Protocol on Climate
Change
Genuine development for all
 Work towards a
sustainable, independent
and progressive local
economy.
 National Industrialization
 Genuine Agrarian
Reform

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 c

Existing environmental and social problems aggravated by

global warming will persist until the plunder of the world for
globalization's greed for profits end.
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