RISK

MANAGEMENT
Updated
UpdatedJan09
Jan09

TSP-1
 LEARNING OBJECTIVES

A. Terminal Learning Objective (TLO). As a

leader, apply the risk management process to a
mission training plan task in a garrison or tactical
environment. Specifically, the leader will
correctly answer questions about basic risk
management concepts and terms, and complete
the worksheet for the scenario provided in
accordance with the risk management
worksheet instructions.
Enabling Learning Objectives (ELO)

•Identify the three categories of accident cause factors

•Define the underlying sources (reasons) of accident cause factors
•Identify and define key terms associated with risk management
•Identify hazards using METT-T factors, available hazard detection
resources and personal experience/expertise
•Determine the level of risk
•Develop control options and make risk decisions
•Determine how to implement, supervise, and evaluate the
effectiveness of controls
 Developmental References

•Small Unit Risk Management Booklet

•Leader’s Guide to Force Protection through Risk
Management Book
•The Small Unit Leader’s Force Protection Course
Lesson Guide
•Small Unit Safety Officer/NCO Guide (Pam 385-1)
 Battle and Non-Battle
Casualties**
Rate* per 1,000 soldiers and percent

W.W.II Korea Vietnam DS/S NTC FY93

Army 1942-45 1950-53 1965-72 1990-91 (BLUFOR-GROUND)

Accident 95.57 120.33 154.66 11.14 2.23

56% 44% 54% 75% 3%

Friendly 1.50*** 3.03*** 2.67*** .68 7.87****

Fire 1% 1% 1% 5% 9%

Enemy 73.61 148.56 131.20 2.90 74.17****

Action 43% 55% 45% 20% 88%
* Per 12 months for W.W.II, Korea and Vietnam; 14 months for DS/S; per rotation NTC.
** Deaths and injuries (ground and aviation) for entire war/operation.
*** Research based estimate (2% of all direct- and indirect- fire losses).
**** Simulated (MILES) direct fire vehicle kills.

TSP-2
 RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET
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5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS IMPLEMENT SUPERVISE S

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HAZARDS
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9. OVERALL RISK LEVEL AFTER CONTROLS ARE IMPLEMENTED (CIRCLE ONE): 10. RISK DECISION AUTHORITY:
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LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREMELY HIGH
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 CAUSE FACTORS
•Human Error - an individual’s actions or performance
is different than what is required and results in or
contributes to an accident.

•Material Failure/Malfunction - a fault in the

equipment that keeps it from working as designed,
therefore causing or contributing to an accident.

•Environmental Conditions - any natural or manmade

surroundings that negatively affect performance of
individuals, equipment or materials and causes or
contributes to an accident.

TSP-3
 SOURCES
OF
CAUSE FACTORS
Individual Failure - Soldier knows and is trained
to standard but elects not to follow the standard
(self-discipline).
Leader Failure - Leader does not enforce known
standard.
Training Failure - Soldier not trained to known
standard (insufficient, incorrect or no training on
task).
Standards Failure - Standards/procedures not
clear or practical, or do not exist.
Support Failure - Equipment/material improperly
designed/not provided.
TSP-4
 SOURCES OF CAUSE FACTORS
EXAMPLES

Individual Failure - Soldier knows there is a requirement

to be certified on servicing tires and although he isn’t
certified, he attempts to service the tire anyway so he won’t
have to wait for maintenance personnel. Can’t be that hard.
Leader Failure - Supervisor sees the soldier changing
the tire and doesn’t stop him.
Training Failure - Soldier has never had any training on
how to service split rims and didn’t know that a tire cage
and air extension is required for inflation.
Standards Failure - The unit SOP requires the use of a
tire cage, however it does not require the use of a twelve
foot air gage extension.
Support Failure - The unit tire cage was not properly
constructed and the unit does not have a twelve foot
extension for the air gage.
TSP--4A
 CAUSES: •HUMAN ERROR
•MATERIAL FAILURE/MALFUNCTION
•ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

UNDERLYING SOURCES OF CAUSES

•INDIVIDUAL FAILURE
•LEADER FAILURE
•TRAINING FAILURE
•STANDARDS FAILURE
•SUPPORT FAILURE
 Key Definitions
 RiskManagement - the process of identifying
and controlling hazards to protect the force.
 It’s five steps represent a logical thought
process from which users develop tools,
techniques, and procedures for applying
risk management in their areas of
responsibility.
 It is a closed-loop process applicable to
any situation and environment.

TSP-5
 Key Definitions
 Hazard - any real or potential condition
that can cause injury, illness or death of
personnel, or damage to, or loss of
equipment or property, or mission
degradation. (AR 310-25)
 Risk- chance of hazard or bad
consequences; exposure to chance of
injury or loss. (Oxford Dictionary, 1976)

TSP-6
 Key Definitions
 Risk
level is expressed in terms of hazard
probability and severity.
 Probability - the likelihood that an event will
occur.
 Severity - the expected consequence of an
event in terms of degree of injury, property
damage, or other mission impairing factors
(loss of combat power, etc..,) that could
occur.

TSP-7
 Key Definitions
 RiskAssessment - the identification
and assessment of hazards (first two
steps of the Risk Management
process).
 Controls- actions taken to eliminate
hazards or reduce their risk(s).

TSP-8
 Key Definitions
 ResidualRisk - the level of risk
remaining after controls have
been identified and selected.
 RiskDecision - the decision to
accept or not accept the risk(s)
associated with an action made
by the commander, leader, or the
individual responsible for
performing that action.

TSP-9
WHAT IS THE FIRST STEP
OF RISK MANAGEMENT?
 Risk
STEP 1
Management
Process
Develop controls  Identify Hazards.
Assess
hazards
& make risk Identify hazards to the
decision force. Consider all
aspects of current and
IDENTIFY future situations,
Implemen
HAZARDS environment, and
t
controls
known historical
Supervise problem areas.
& evaluate

TSP-10
•HOW DO WE IDENTIFY THE
HAZARDS?
•LOTS OF AREAS TO CONSIDER
•POSSIBILITY OF OVERLOOKING
SOMETHING
•WHAT KIND OF FRAMEWORK WILL
HELP IDENTIFY POSSIBLE HAZARDS?
THE METT-T FACTORS PROVIDE
THAT FRAMEWORK!
 METT-T
Mission- Specified, implied and subtasks.

Enemy - Size and capability (SALUTE).

Terrain/Weather - Environmental conditions.

Troops and Equipment -

- Troops - training, type, number, and physical condition.
- Equipment - amount, type, design, and condition.

Time available - plan, rehearse, and conduct .

TSP-11
 ID HAZARDS - OBJECTIVE

OBJECTIVE - Identified those hazards most likely

to result in loss of combat power

CRITERIA For “Most Likely Hazard” - Hazard is not

adequately controlled at this echelon or next lower
echelon.

- Hazard should be tracked via risk management

work sheet.

TSP-12
 IS THE HAZARD ADEQUATELY CONTROLLED?
Adequate
YES NO

-Support - Is type/amount/capability/condition of support

adequate to control hazard?
- Personnel - Equipment/material
- Supplies - Services/facilities
-Standards - Is guidance/procedure adequately clear/
Identified practical/specific to control hazard?
METT-T
hazard - Training - Is training adequately thorough and recent
to control hazard?
- Leader - Are leaders ready, willing and able to enforce
standards required to control hazard?

- Individual - Is soldier performance and conduct

sufficiently self-disciplined to control hazard?

A - If all “yes”, no further action.

- If one or more “no”, risk manage this hazard. TSP-13
DO THESE 5 QUESTIONS LOOK FAMILIAR?

To determine if the hazard is adequately

controlled, answer the five (5) questions about:
• the individual
• leaders
• training
• standards
• support
 CAUSES: •HUMAN ERROR
•MATERIAL FAILURE/MALFUNCTION
•ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

UNDERLYING SOURCES OF CAUSES

•INDIVIDUAL FAILURE
•LEADER FAILURE
•TRAINING FAILURE
•STANDARDS FAILURE
•SUPPORT FAILURE
 Detection
Resources and Techniques
Brain Storming
Experts
Publications
Accident Information
Scenario Thinking
TSP-14
WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS

TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

- RECEIVE THE MISSION
- ISSUE THE WARNING ORDER
- MAKE A TENTATIVE PLAN

DO THIS

IDENTIFY HAZARDS

TSP-15
WHAT IS THE SECOND STEP
OF RISK MANAGEMENT?
 Risk STEP 2
Management
Process.
Develop  Assess Hazards.
ASSESS controls & Assess hazards to
HAZARDS make risk
decisions
determine risks.
Assess the impact of
each hazard in terms
Identify Implemen of potential loss and
hazards t cost, based on
controls probability and
Supervise severity.
& evaluate

TSP-16
 RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX

RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX

E - EXTREMELY HIGH RISK
H - HIGH RISK
M - MODERATE RISK
PROBABILITY
L - LOW RISK
FREQUENT LIKELY OCCASIONAL SELDOM UNLIKELY

S
E E H H M
CATASTROPHIC
E
V CRITICAL

E E H H M L
R MARGINAL

I NEGLIGIBLE
H M M L L
T
Y M L L L L

PROBABILITY -- THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EVENT

WILL OCCUR (DUE TO THE HAZARD)
TSP-17
 PROBABILITY

Frequent Likely Occasional Seldom Unlikely

Frequent - Occurs often, continuously experienced.

Likely - Occurs several times.

Occasional - Occurs sporadically.

Seldom - Unlikely, but could occur at some time.

Unlikely - Can assume it will not occur.

TSP-18
 LOOK AT YOUR ARNG Hasty Risk
Management Card
Front side (with colors), center left
Note the definition of “Probability”
and
note the explanations of the categories of
probability:
Frequent, Likely, Occasional, Seldom and
Unlikely
SEVERITY:
THE EXPECTED
CONSEQUENCE OF AN EVENT
IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
INJURY, PROPERTY DAMAGE,
OR OTHER MISSION IMPAIRING
FACTORS (LOSS OF COMBAT
POWER, ADVERSE PUBLICITY,
ETC.) THAT COULD OCCUR.
 SEVERITY
Death or permanent total disability,
Catastrophic system loss, major property
S damage.
E Permanent partial disability,
V Critical
temporary total disability in excess
of 3 months, major system damage,
E significant property damage.
R Minor injury, lost workday accident,
compensable injury or illness, minor
I Marginal
system damage, minor property
T damage.
Y Negligible First aid or minor supportive medical
treatment, minor system impairment.

TSP-19
 LOOK AT YOUR ARNG Hasty Risk
Management Card
Front side (with colors), top center
Note the definition of “Severity”
and
note the explanations of the categories of
severity:
Catastrophic, Critical, Marginal and
Negligible
RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX

RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX

E - EXTREMELY HIGH RISK
H - HIGH RISK
M - MODERATE RISK
PROBABILITY
L - LOW RISK
FREQUENT LIKELY OCCASIONAL SELDOM UNLIKELY

S
E E H H M
CATASTROPHIC
E
V CRITICAL

E E H H M L
R MARGINAL

I NEGLIGIBLE
H M M L L
T
Y M L L L L

TSP-17
 LOOK AT YOUR ARNG Hasty Risk
Management Card

Front side (with colors)

Note the RISK Assessment Matrix
at the bottom of that card
The block where the hazard’s probability
and severity intersect is the RISK LEVEL
WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS

TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

- “MAKE A TENATIVE PLAN”
- MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION
- DEVELOP SITUATION AND COA
- ANALYZE COURSES OF ACTION
- DETAILED MISSION ANALYSIS

DO THIS

ASSESS THE HAZARDS

TSP-20
WHAT IS THE THIRD STEP OF
RISK MANAGEMENT?
 Risk
STEP 3
Management
Process.
 Develop Controls and
Assess
DEVELOP Make Risk Decisions.
CONTROLS & MAKE
hazards RISK DECISION Develop control measures
that eliminate the hazard or
reduce its risk. As control
Identify Implemen measures are developed,
hazards t risks are reevaluated until
controls all risks are reduced to a
Supervise level where benefits
& evaluate outweigh potential cost.

TSP--21
 Develop Controls
&
Make Risk Decision
CONTROLS
For each hazard
• Implement existing controls if adequate, if not
• Adjust to make adequate or develop new controls

Consider:
• Realism, time, money and resources
• Minimize chance of accidents
• Maximize chance of mission accomplishment

DECISION
• Determine level of residual risk
• Have the appropriate level of command accept risk

TSP-22
 WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS

TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

- COMPARING COURSES OF ACTION
- MAKING DECISION
- EXPANDING SELECTED COA INTO A TENTATIVE PLAN

DO THIS

DEVELOP CONTROLS AND MAKE RISK DECISION

TSP-23
WHAT IS THE FOURTH STEP
OF RISK MANAGEMENT?
 Risk
Management STEP 4
Process
Develop controls  Implement Controls.
Assess & make risk
hazards decisions Put controls in place
that eliminate the
hazards or reduce their
Identify IMPLEMENT risks.
hazards CONTROLS

Supervise
& evaluate

TSP--24
 IMPLEMENT CONTROLS
 Standing Operating Procedures (SOP'S)
 Orders
 Briefings and back-briefs
 Training
 Rehearsals
 New equipment

TSP-25
WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS

TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

- INITIATING MOVEMENT
- RECONNOITERING
- COMPLETING THE PLAN
- ISSUING THE ORDER

DO THIS

IMPLEMENT CONTROLS

TSP-26
WHAT IS THE FIFTH STEP OF
RISK MANAGEMENT?
 Risk
Management STEP 5
Process
Develop
Assess controls & Supervise & Evaluate.
hazards make risk
decision Perform to, and enforce
standards and controls.
Evaluate the effectiveness
Identify Implemen of controls and adjust/
hazards t update as necessary.
controls
SUPERVISE
& EVALUATE

TSP-27
 Supervise
All Soldiers responsible (self-discipline) for:
• Performing to standard
• Executing controls
• Recognizing unsafe acts or conditions
Leaders are also responsible for enforcement

Evaluate
• Effectiveness of Controls (adjust/update)
• Feedback - AAR’s

TSP-28
 WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS

TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

- SUPERVISE AND REFINE THE PLAN

DO THIS

SUPERVISE AND EVALUATE

TSP-29
‘Risk management is the Army’s
principal risk-reduction process
to protect the force. Our goal is
to make risk management a
routine part of planning and
executing operational missions.’

Chief of Staff, Army, July 1995

TSP--30
 REVIEW

Small Unit Risk Management

Booklet
 RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET
1 of ____
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1. MSN/TASK : 2. DTG BEGIN : 3. DATE PREPARED:

END :
4. PREPARED BY:
RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION

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9. OVERALL RISK LEVEL AFTER CONTROLS ARE IMPLEMENTED (CIRCLE ONE): 10. RISK DECISION AUTHORITY:

LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREMELY HIGH

RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION
 SAMPLE RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET
SOLUTION - SCENARIO 1
1 of __2__
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1. MSN/TASK : 2. DTG BEGIN : 021500MAR97 3. DATE PREPARED:

Execute Attack ARTEP 7-8-MTP (7-3/4-1100) END :
050600MAR97 2 MAR 97
4. PREPARED BY: 2LT Eager 1st Plt Ldr Co. B
RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION

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5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS IMPLEMENT SUPERVISE S

8.
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Enemy obstacles H M
Attach Engineer Sqd to the plt OPORD Direct Sprv
Develop obstacle reduction Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv
plan OPORD
Eng Handbook
Rehearse obstacle reduction Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv
techniques FM 5-34
Eng Handbook
Adverse environmental conditions E Adjust SP time to allow for adverse H OPORD Direct Sprv
- cold, rain/snow weather conditions
Proper protective gear worn Unit TACSOP PCC/PCI
Brief techniques for cold weather Unit TACSOP Buddy Sys
injury recognition and administering Soldiers Man Spot check
first aid. FM 21-11
- limited visibility (night, snow/rain) Use NVD’s Unit TACSOP PCC/PCI
OPORD
Rehearse movement techniques OPORD Cont sprv
Recon the route Unit TACSOP Cont sprv
OPORD
Adjust movement interval to meet OPORD Cont sprv
existing conditions

9. OVERALL RISK LEVEL AFTER CONTROLS ARE IMPLEMENTED (CIRCLE ONE): 10. RISK DECISION AUTHORITY:
CPT BRADLEY, COMMANDER
LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREMELY HIGH
RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION
 RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET
PAGE _2_ of ___2_
SAMPLE
SOLUTION-SCENARIO 1
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5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS IMPLEMENT SUPERVISE

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Inexperienced soldiers E Buddy team experienced soldiers H Battle roster Cont Sprv
with inexperienced

- Terrain (cliffs, ravines, open areas) Use climbing ropes TC 90-6-1 Cont Sprv
Use rope bridges Mountaineering
Bypass
Cross at night OPORD Spot rpt
Use smoke Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv
Practice techniques Verbal/Rehearse Direct Sprv

- Misidentification of friendly vs. threat Use visual recognition markings Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv
personnel and equipment Ranger Hndbk
Squad leader initiates fires OPORD Cont Sprv

Conduct opportunity training on ID Verbal Buddy Sys

- Unfamiliar with new TACSOP Drill procedures that apply to mission Rehearse/brief Direct Sprv
Thank you for
your attention.