Floods : The Awesome Power

Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D.

Research Hydrometeorolrogist
NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory
How Is A Flood Defined?

Webster’s Dictionary
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English flOd; akin to Old High German fluot flood, Old English flOwan to flow

1 a : A rising and overflowing of a body of water especially onto normally dry land; also : a condition of
overflowing <rivers in flood> b capitalized : a flood described in the Bible as covering the earth in the time
of Noah
2 : The flowing in of the tide
3 : An overwhelming quantity or volume; also : a state of abundant flow or volume <a debate in full flood>

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002

Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9

Any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water which causes or threatens damage.

How Is A Flash Flood Defined?

Webster’s Dictionary

A local flood of great volume and short duration generally resulting from heavy rainfall in the
immediate vicinity

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002

Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9

A flood which occurs within six hours or less of the causative event. In some parts
of the Nation, the actual time threshold for an event to be considered a flash flood may be
less than six hours.
How Can I Decide if it is a Flood or a Flash Flood?
Duration of Time from Precipitation Event(s) to onset of flooding

Common Flash Flood Producers

Heavy Localized Rainfall
Dam or Levee Failure
Sudden Release of Water held by an Ice Jam or Debris Flow

Common Flood Producers

Regional Excessive Rainfall
Mainstem Seasonal River System Flooding

Severe Local Storms Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Individual Thunderstorm Repeated Occurrences of Convective Complexes

Increasing Spatial Coverage
Floods- An International Perspective
Number of Great Natural Catastrophes 1950-2006
UN Definition: The region affected requires supraregional or international assistance; This is the
case for events when there are thousands of fatalities, when hundreds of thousands of people are
left homeless, or when overall losses and/or insured losses are of exceptional proportions

Trend Line

http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-05217_en.pdf?rdm=28513
Top Ten Natural Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic Losses) 6 of the 10 Events Affected U.S.
Event Country Month Fatalities Cost (US$ million)
Hurricane Katrina U.S. Aug., 2005 1,322 (1,833- NHC Report) 125,000
Earthquake Japan: Kobe Jan., 1995 6,430 100,000
Earthquake U.S.: Northridge Jan., 1994 61 44,000
Flood China May-Sept., 4,159 30,700
1998
Earthquake Japan: Niigata Oct., 2004 46 28,000
Hurricane Andrew U.S. Aug., 1992 62 26,500
Flood China Jun.-Aug, 1996 3,048 24,000
Hurricane Ivan U.S. Sept., 2004 125 23,000
Flood U.S. Mississippi River Jun-Aug, 1993 48 21,000
Hurricane Wilma Mexico, U.S. Caribbean Oct. 2005 42 18,000
 Worldwide Flood Events 2005 :

100-110 Events (Flood and Flash Flood)

4,240 Fatalities
Over 16 Billion in Losses

Event Country Month Fatalitie Cost (US

s $ million)
Flood India Aug. 1,150 5,000

Hurricane U.S. Aug. 1,322 125,000

Katrina
Hurricane U.S. Sept. 10 16,000
Rita
Hurricane Middle Oct. 840 3,000
Stan America
Earthquake Pakistan, Oct 88,000 5,200
India
Hurricane Mexico, Oct. 42 18,000
Wilma U.S.
Caribbean

Reference: Munich Re, Topics Geo 2005

Top Ten Flood Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic Losses)
Country Year Fatalities Cost (US$ million)
China May-Sept., 1998 4,159 30,700
China Jun.-Aug, 1996 3,048 24,000
U.S. Mississippi River Jun-Aug, 1993 48 21,000
Europe Aug., 2002 39 16,500
North Korea Jul.-Aug, 1995 68 15,000
China May-Sept., 1991 2,628 13,600
China Jun.-Sept., 1993 3,300 11,000

Italy Nov., 1994 68 9,300

Bangladesh, India, Nepal Jul.-Aug., 1993 2,953 8,500
Europe Oct., 2000 38 8,500

Notable 2004 Flooding Events which are not mentioned in economic loss table
May- Haiti and Dominican Republic
2000 people died due to flood waters and mudslides

June –August Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Bangladesh 2/3 of the country was under water for most of the time
2200 people drowned and 5 billion in economic loss

June-September China River Floods

Hundreds of thousands of buildings destroyed
1,000 people drowned and economic losses of 8 billion dollars
 United States
Flood Fatalities and Economic Impacts
 What Storm-Related Hazard is
responsible for the highest number
of fatalities in the United States?

a. Lightning

b. Tornadoes

c. Heavy Rainfall/ Flooding

d. High Winds
 Storm Related Fatalities 1975-2004

225

200

175

150
Number of Fatalities

125

100

75

50

25

0
1976

1977

1978

1980

1982

1983

1984

1986

1987

1989

1990

1992

1993

1995

1996

1999

2001

2002

2003
1975

1979

1981

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

1998

2000

2004
Year

Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane

2004 Fatality Summary - 82 Flood , 34 Tornado, 34 Hurricane, 31 Lightning, 27 Cold, 28 Winter, 6 Heat
 Percent of Total Storm Related Hazard Fatalities 1975-2004

70

60

50
P ercent of T otal

40

30

20

10

0
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4
Year

Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane

30 Year Average (1975-2004) Flood = 107, Lightning = 64, Tornado = 54, Hurricane = 15

10 Year Average (1995-2004) Flood = 88, Lightning = 49, Tornado = 57, Hurricane = 21

Flood Fatality Information from NWS Hydrologic Information Center Other Hazard Fatality Information from NWS Summary of Natural Hazard
Statistics
 Storm Data 1995-2004 Hazards Loss

20000

18000

16000

14000
Dollars of Loss (Millions)

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year

Cumulative of Other Winter TS/Hurricanes Marine Flood Total Extreme Temperatures Convection

With Caveats on Flood Data Economic Tabulations as outlined in

Pielke, Jr., R.A., M.W. Downton, and J.Z. Barnard Miller, 2002: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: A
Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: UCAR.
 NFIP Loss Dollars Paid

$14,000,000,000.00 Year Loss Dollars Paid Number of Claims

2005 $13,101,490,578 149,711
$12,000,000,000.00
2004 $2,140,197,672 54,745
$10,000,000,000.00
1995 $1,295,575,169 62,441
$8,000,000,000.00
2001 $1,276,846,344 43,539
$6,000,000,000.00 1998 $886,026,013 57,340

$4,000,000,000.00 1996 $828,040,301 52,675

2003 $771,794,480 36,478
$2,000,000,000.00

1999 $754,837,772 47,240

$-
1992 $710,247,980 44,651
1978

1980

1982

1984

1990

1992

2000

2002

2004
1986

1988

1994

1996

1998
NFIP Loss Dollars Paid 1989 $661,668,435 36,247

NFIP Number of Claims Paid

Year Loss Dollars Paid Per Capita Claim
160,000
2005 $13,101,490,578 $ 87,512
140,000
2004 $2,140,197,672 $ 39,094
120,000
2001 $1,276,846,344 $ 29,326
100,000
2003 $771,794,480 $ 21,158
80,000
1995 $1,295,575,169 $ 20,749
60,000
1994 $ 411,079,605 $ 19,046
40,000
1993 $ 659,092,451 $ 18,286
20,000
1989 $661,668,435 $ 18,254
0
2002 $ 433,198,849 $ 17,149
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

NFIP Loss Dollars Paid

1997 $ 519,511,873 $ 17,124

National Flood Insurance Program – FEMA Web Page

Flood types: production methods on
multiple time and space scales
Flash Floods
Weather Produced:
Individual Storm-“Quick-Burst”
Rainfall
Weather/Human Factors:
Ice Jam/Debris Flows
Human Factor:
Dam Failures

Landfalling Systems with Oceanic/Tropical Origins

Weather Produced:
Organized Storm Complex
Tropical Systems/Nor’Easters
Regional Floods
Multiple Storm Complexes reoccurring for weeks
Prolonged Regional River System Flooding
Flash Flood Significant Events

June 14, 1990 – Shadyside, Ohio (Evening)

3-5 Inches Of Rain In Less Than 2 Hours Fell On Saturated Soils

Most Deadly and Destructive Flash Flood since 1980

15-20 Foot Wall of Water

26 People Killed- 2 Bodies Recovered 30 Miles Downstream At he

Hannibal Locks and Dam on the Ohio River

80 Homes Destroyed, 250 Damaged with 6-8 Million Dollars in Damage

July 31, 1976 – Big Thompson Canyon Flood, Colorado (Evening)

8 Inches of Rainfall in One Hour

139 People with 30 Million Dollars of

Damage
Impacts Multiplier: Time of Day
People’s Access to Info
 Ice Jams (From US Corps of Engineers Data and Web Pages)
The rates of water level rise can vary from feet per minute to feet per hour during ice jam flooding. In some instances,
communities have many hours of lead time between the time an ice jam forms and the start of flooding. In other cases,
the lead time is a little as one hour.

For example, in March 1992, an ice jam developed at 7:00 a.m. in Montpelier, VT. By 8:00 a.m. the downtown area was
flooded (Figure 2-3). During the next 11 hours, the business district was covered with an average of 1.2 to 1.5 m (4 to 5
ft) of water. The event occurred so quickly that there was not sufficient time to warn residents so they could protect their
goods. Even after water levels dropped, damage related to the flooding continued as cold temperatures caused freezeup
of wet objects. Damages of less than one day were estimated at $5 million (FEMA 1992b).

Ice Jam Database

Israel River, Lancaster, NH US Army, ERDC, CRREL-Ice
Engineering Group
72 Lyme Road
Hanover, NH 03755

Phone: 603-646-4187
Fax: 603-646-4477
E-mail: kwhite@crrel.usace.army.mil
Wednesday, March 11, 1992

6:57A A large ice jam on the Winooski River breaks loose about the Pioneer Street Bridge and travels through
Montpelier. Ice jams just below the Bailey Avenue Bridge and dams the river.

7:05A Filled with rain and snowmelt, the Winooski begins to overflow its banks along State Street and the North
branch begins backing up onto Elm Street.

7:15A Water surges dramatically into low-lying areas behind Main and State Streets

7:23A Radio stations are notified of a flood emergency as first warnings are issued.

7:45A Icy flood waters hit the steam heating boiler at Business on Main Street and the boiler explodes, shattering the
glass storefront and destroying the basement.

7:56A Two to three feet of water is reported in front of Days Inn on State Street where an estimated 100 people are
stranded. Flood waters pout onto Main Street, stalling cars and making the road impassable. Backed-up
water from the swollen North Branch flows upstream on Elm Street.

8:09A Evacuations begin of hundreds of stranded residents, workers and state employees on Main, State and Elm
Street. Some wade to safety, while others are taken out by boat or by fire engines and dump trucks.

8:30A Gov. Howard Dean declares a state of emergency in the capital and closes state offices. The National Guard is
called in to assist, and state police, game wardens and other public safety crews begin arriving to help in
the disaster.

8:46A A Red Cross emergency shelter is set up at the gymnasium at Vermont College.

9:00A Human chains of volunteers work successfully in frigid waters to save historic documents stored in the basement
of the Pavilion Building. On Main Street, similar efforts rescue about 18,000 children's books from the
basement of Kellogg-Hubbard Library and thousands of videotapes in the basement of the Savoy
Theater.

10:07A Power crews shut off electricity in downtown Montpelier because of high fire and explosion hazards from
leaking fuel oil and propane. Many telephone lines are out. About 200 buildings in the downtown area
are flooded.

3:00P Backhoes and a crane move into place and begin dislodging the ice jam below Bailey Avenue Bridge.

4:57P After getting the ice flowing, a second jam occurs, sending a surge of water back up into Montpelier to
cause the worst flooding of the day.

5:10P The ice jam is knocked loose again, and begins moving downstream.

5:17P Huge ice chunks grinding downriver lift and twist half the trestle railroad bridge near Bailey Avenue off its
foundation, leaving it perpendicular to the rest of the bridge and pointing downstream.

5:31P The last ice clears the Bailey Avenue Bridge, and flood waters rapidly drain from downtown.

6:13P Frigid weather and blowing snow descend as downtown Montpelier is cordoned off and a curfew is set. The city
remains closed until noon, Saturday, March 14, as an army of workers, volunteers & municipal crews
pump basements, remove more than 650 dump truck loads of debris and repair damage.
Damages of less than one day were estimated at $5 million (FEMA 1992b)
Dam Breaks
June 1, 1889 Johnstown, Pennsylvania
20 Million Tons of Water Released

Official City Records list 2,207 dead but witnesses claim more

March 12, 1928 – St Francisquito Canyon, California

William Mulholland's great St. Francis Dam broke at three minutes before midnight on March 12, 1928,
sending a 180-foot-high wall of water crashing down San Francisquito Canyon and claiming approximately
470 lives by the time the floodwaters reached the Pacific Ocean at Ventura.

The piano keyboard in the foreground of this photograph is an eerie reminder of the families that were
caught unawares in the middle of that fateful night. The flood was the second-worst disaster in California
history, second only to the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906

Its waters swept through the Santa Clara Valley toward the
Pacific Ocean, about 54 miles away. 65 miles of valley was
devastated before the water finally made its way into the ocean
between Oxnard and Ventura.
At its peak the wall of water was said to be 78 feet high; by the
time it hit Santa Paula, 42 miles south of the dam, the water was
estimated to be 25 feet deep. Almost everything in its path was
destroyed: livestock, structures, railways, bridges, livestock, and
orchards.
By the time it was over, parts of Ventura County lay under 70
feet of mud and debris. Over 500 people were killed and
damage estimates topped $20 million. ((www.USC.EDU)

http://www.damsafety.org/ www.scvhistory.com
November 1977 at 1:30 AM- Kelly Barnes Dam (Rock Crib) Toccoa, Georgia Dam Failure
40 People Died (Almost 50 percent In 1899 Original dam constructed of interlocking sections of timber
Children) or concrete, forming cells which are filled with earth or broken rock.
In a study from 1970 to 1999, freshwater flooding accounted for more than half (59%) of
U.S. tropical cyclone deaths. These floods are why 63% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths
during that period occurred in inland counties.

At least 23% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths occur to people who drown in, or attempting
to abandon, their cars.

78% of children killed by tropical cyclones drowned in freshwater floods.

Rappaport, E. Loss of Life In The United States Associated With Recent Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society. Vol 81, No. 9, September 2000.
 44009 44004

CHLV2
44014

DUCN7 Hurricane Isabel- September, 2003

41025

CLKN7
41001

FPSN7
41013

41002

Hurricane Isabel - September 18 at 1555 UTC

Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC
 Rain Accumulation (Inches)

0
1
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7
1:00:00

2:00:00

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6:00:00

7:00:00

8:00:00

9:00:00

10:00:00

11:00:00

12:00:00

13:00:00

14:00:00

OXFO
15:00:00

16:00:00

WILL
17:00:00

Time (EST)
18:00:00

ROCK
Tar River Basin ECONET Sites
19:00:00

20:00:00

AURO
21:00:00

22:00:00

23:00:00

Accumulated Rainfall 1 AM EST September 18, 2003 to 8 AM EST September 19, 2003
23:59:00

1:00:00

2:00:00
Rain Accu mu latio n (Inch es)
0
1
2
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8

3:00:00
0:00:00
4:00:00 0:45:00

5:00:00 1:30:00

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8:00:00 4:30:00

5:15:00

6:00:00

6:45:00

7:30:00

8:15:00

9:00:00

9:45:00
LOUN7 (USGS 2081747)

10:30:00

11:15:00

12:00:00

12:45:00

13:30:00

14:15:00

15:00:00
TOWN 7 (USGS 2083640)

15:45:00

16:30:00
Time (EST)

17:15:00
Tar River Basin USGS Sites

18:00:00

18:45:00

19:30:00

20:15:00
RMBN7 (USGS 208250885)

21:00:00

21:45:00

22:30:00
Hurricane Isabel Rainfall

23:15:00
Accumulated Rainfall Midnight EST September 18, 2003 to 8 AM EST September 19, 2003

0:00:00

0:45:00

1:30:00

2:15:00
TRAN7 (USGS 208436195)

3:00:00

3:45:00

4:30:00
6 to 7 inches from Midsection to Mouth
Approx 3 inches in Headwaters (OXFO)

5:15:00

6:00:00

6:45:00

7:30:00
 CFS

0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
12000
14000
9/1/2003

9/3/2003

9/5/2003

9/7/2003

9/9/2003

9/11/2003

9/13/2003

9/15/2003

Date
9/17/2003

Mean Streamf low

(Max Stage = 13.72 ft on Sep 25)
9/19/2003

9/21/2003

9/23/2003

Mean Stream flow Tar River at Greenville (PGVN7) 2084000 Septem ber 2003
9/25/2003

9/27/2003

9/29/2003

Feet

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9/1/2003
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9/6/2003 9/5/2003

9/7/2003 9/6/2003

9/8/2003 9/7/2003

9/9/2003
9/8/2003
9/9/2003
9/10/2003
9/10/2003
9/11/2003

Downstream
9/11/2003
9/12/2003
9/12/2003
9/13/2003
9/13/2003
9/14/2003
9/14/2003
9/15/2003
9/15/2003
Date

9/16/2003
Date

Gage Height Mean

9/16/2003
9/17/2003
Gage Height Mean

9/17/2003
9/18/2003
9/18/2003
9/19/2003 9/19/2003
(Max Gage Height = 14.49 ft on Sep 24)

Movement of Flood Wave

9/20/2003 9/20/2003
( Mean Gage Height Max = 15.45 Ft on Sep 20)

Precipitation

9/21/2003 9/21/2003
9/22/2003 9/22/2003

9/23/2003 9/23/2003
Gage Height Maximum Tar River at Rock Spgs 2083893 September 2003
Gage Height Tw in Crk Near Pinetops (TOWN7) 2083640 September 2003

9/24/2003 9/24/2003

9/25/2003
9/25/2003
9/26/2003
9/26/2003
9/27/2003
9/27/2003
9/28/2003
9/28/2003
9/29/2003
9/29/2003
9/30/2003
0
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7

9/30/2003
Inland Flooding – Evacuate and Turn Around Don’t Drown

Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Intense rains and record flooding to the Eastern U.S. Of
the 56 people who perished, 50 drowned due to inland
flooding.

Tropical Storm Alberto (1994)

Drifted over the Southeast United States and produced
torrential rainfall. More than 21 inches of rain fell at
Americus Georgia. Thirty-three people drowned.
Damages exceeded $750 million.

Tropical Storm Claudette (1979)

Produced 45 inches of rain to an area near Alvin, Texas,
contributing to more than $600 million in damages.

Hurricane Agnes (1972)

Produced floods in the Northeast United States which
contributed to 122 deaths and $6.4 billion in damages.

Hurricane Diane (1955)

Brought inland flooding to Pennsylvania, New York, and
New England contributing to nearly 200 deaths and $4.2
billion in damages.

Hurricane Floyd NASA

Year Month Event Cause NOAA Storm NFIP # Paid NFIP Amount NFIP Avg Fatalities
Data Total Losses Paid Paid Loss (Storm Data)
Loss
2004 Sept Hurricane LandfallingTropical 14 Billion 28,053 1,407,641,752 50,178 57
Ivan System
2004 Sept Hurricane LandfallingTropical 9 Billion 6,552 188,747,694 28,808 48
Frances System
2004 Aug Hurricane LandfallingTropical 15 Billion (Est) 3,082 58,843,652 19,093 34
Charley System
2003 Sept Hurricane LandfallingTropical 5 Billion 19,569 460,975,889 23,556 55
Isabel System
2001 Jun Tropical LandfallingTropical 5.1 Billion 30,291 1,095,419,259 36,163 43
Storm Allison System
1999 Sept Hurricane LandfallingTropical 6.5 Billion 18,612 439,100,271 23,592 77
Floyd System
1998 Sept Hurricane LandfallingTropical 6.5 Billion 8,832 149,384,694 16,914 16
Georges System
1998 Aug Hurricane LandfallingTropical 1.1 Billion 2,492 22,125,055 8,878 3
Bonnie System

2005 Event Country Month Fatalities Cost (US $ million)

Flood India Aug. 1,150 5,000
Hurricane Katrina U.S. Aug. 1,322 125,000
Hurricane Rita U.S. Sept. 10 16,000
Hurricane Stan Middle America Oct. 840 3,000
Hurricane Wilma Mexico, U.S. Oct. 42 18,000
Caribbean
October-November 1998 Heavy Rains (Texas)

Severe Flooding from 2 Heavy Rain Events

31 Deaths (NCDC Storm Data) - CDC Web Page 29 Deaths with 22 from vehicles driven into high water

Approximately 1.0 (1.1 adj 2002) Billion in damage

Number of Paid FEMA Losses: Total FEMA Claims Paid: 76,257,393 (16,301 per claim)
4,678
http://floodsafety.com/media/pdfs/texas/October98.pdf
Northern Plains Flooding –April/May 1997
(Snowmelt and Icepack Buildup)

NCDC Storm Data: 11 deaths

Approximately 3.7 (4.1 adjusted to 2002) billion in damage/costs

FEMA NFIP Number of Paid Losses =7,272

FEMA NFIP Total Losses Paid

158,401,726 Dollars ($21,782 per claim) These conditions resulted from a series of major
cold-air outbreaks and winter storms from
September 1996 to April 1997. During this period
more than 200% of normal snowfall was
observed over most of North Dakota, western
Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, with
The important factors that set the stage for potential significant
125%-200% of normal snow covering the
flooding of the Red River and its tributaries during April 1997
remainder of the upper Midwest, the northern
Greatly enhanced snowfall during the winter Plains, Montana and most of Wyoming
Substantial buildup of river ice throughout the northern half
of the Red River.
A highly unfavorable March-April 1997 thaw in the Red
River Basin
Where Can You Receive River Forecasts and Flood
Information?

http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
Forecast Dissemination and Data Delivery Organizational Structure
National Weather Service
Headquarters
Office of Climate, Weather, Water, and
Weather Services (OCCWS) Divisions
Office of Hydrologic Development
Develops and maintains Hydrologic/
Hydrometeorologic models, systems
and procedures to meet requirements
set by OCCWS HSD
Maintains the Hydrometeorological
Automated Data System (HADS)
Office of Operational Systems
Office of Science and Technology
The Meteorological Development Lab
(MDL) within OST develops WFO
applications used to produce selected
watch/warning/advisory products
MDL supports MOS software which
provides temperature forecast
guidance used as input to RFC
hydrologic models
NCEP Facilities
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
Produces gridded and probabilistic QPF with other National Operational
hydromet products on a national basis. Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center
Environmental Monitoring Center (EMC)
Develops, maintains, and improves atmospheric
models used in short/medium term AHPS products (13) NWS River Forecast
Centers
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Products define how precipitation deviates from Produces mainstem river flood
climatic norms for the long-term forecast period forecasts and warnings
Provides precipitation QA/QC
Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Hydrologic Model Development
Event-based, short-term precipitation rate forecasts and Maintenance
Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)
Produces forecasts for tropical weather systems
(122) NWS Weather
Forecast Offices (WFO)
NWS Regional Headquarters
Produces flash flood and
selected river flood forecasts
Responsible for full spectrum of hydrologic program:
and warnings
data delivery, product generation, service assessment,
and product improvement Provides precipitation forecasts
Service Hydrologist is public
Regional Director is first-line supervisor of regional and partner interface for
hydrologic division chief, RFC Hydrologists In Charge hydrologic observation network
(HIC), and WFO Meteorologists In Charge (MIC).
Assigns hydrology program responsibilities of the region
 For the U.S., the 13 River
Forecast Centers (RFC) prepare
mainstem river forecast and
warning products

The WFOs
a) Produce flash flood watches and
warnings
b) Disseminate the RFC river
products for their respective
Hydrologic Service Area
c) Coordinate the hydrologic
observing network with local
partners and agencies (USGS,
Corps of Engineers,etc.)
Extended Streamflow, Flood and Precipitation Outlooks (Situational Awareness)
Product Identifier Source Description
This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavy
precipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-hour
or greater lead time. It includes:
Flood Potential ___ESF___
WFO
Outlook (example) • Area affected
• Time frames
• Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions
• Information on projected watches and warnings
This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavy
precipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-hour
or greater lead time. It includes:
Excessive Rain
NMCGPH94E NCEP
Outlook • Area affected
• Time frames
• Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions
• Information on projected watches and warning

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
FGUS74 KSHV 091806
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-031- 043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-OKC089-TXC005-037-063- 067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459-
499-102359-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2007

...ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS SPRING...

IN THE WAKE OF THE WET DECEMBER OF 2006 AND JANUARY OF 2007 THAT RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT MINOR FLOODING...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS DRIED MARKEDLY DURING
FEBRUARY AND THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THIS MARCH. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENDED
DURING JANUARY AS THE BOUNTIFUL RAINS REFILLED LAKES AND RESERVOIRS AND BROUGHT
RIVERS AND BAYOUS TO SEASONABLE STAGES AND DISCHARGES.

ALL RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL
STAGES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS RECEDED MARKEDLY DURING A DRIER THAN
USUAL FEBRUARY WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THIS MARCH.
STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ACROSS THE SHREVEPORT HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)
RECEDED TO NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF FEBRUARY AND CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THIS FIRST THIRD OF MARCH.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DRY DURING FEBRUARY AND THIS MARCH WITH
INCIPIENT DROUGHT (CLASS D0 ON THE INTERNET DROUGHT MONITOR) ONCE AGAIN KNOCKING ON
OUR CLIMATE DOOR WITH THIS PAST WEEKS ISSUANCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FORECAST
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RECHARGE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Quantitative Precipitation
Forecast (QPF)- Day 1
For a 24 Hour Period
ending either 12 UTC or 00
UTC
Watches
Product Identifier Source Description

Used to inform cooperating agencies & the public about the threat of flooding. It covers
precipitation, snow/ice melt, & dam break conditions. It Includes:
• Area affected
___FFA___ • Time frames
Flood Watch WFO
(example) • Conditions
• Extent of hazardous conditions possible
• Potential severity
• Call-to-action statement

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgusa.gif
WGUS66 KSEW 122350
FFASEW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
450 PM PDT MON MAR 12 2007

WAC033-045-053-057-061-073-130800- /O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-070313T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KING-MASON-PIERCE-SKAGIT-SNOHOMISH-WHATCOM-
450 PM PDT MON MAR 12 2007 Area affected
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
Time frames
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR

•PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... SKAGIT
AND WHATCOM. IN WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...KING...
MASON...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH
Conditions
* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Extent of hazardous
* HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING DROVE
SEVERAL RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE HEADWATERS OF RIVERS FLOWING OFF
conditions possible
THE CASCADES WILL RAPIDLY RECEDE TODAY...AND CRESTS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. AS THE CREST MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MINOR FLOODING IS STILL Potential severity
POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTIES UNDER THIS FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY WHERE RIVERS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE AND WHERE
SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS DRAIN INTO THE LARGER RIVERS UNDER A FLOOD
WARNING. Call-to-action
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. BE READY statement
TO ACT QUICKLY IF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLOOD WARNING.
Statements

Product Identifier Source Description

This product is issued to update and expand the information in a Flood
Warning (FLW, see below).
___FLS___
Flood Statement WFO The Flood Statement may be used in lieu of a warning if flooding is
(example)
forecast, imminent, or existing and presents no threat to life or
property. The statement is used also to terminate a Flood
Warning.
This product provides daily river stage forecasts and/or information
about ice jams and ice movement that does not warrant a Flood
Warning or a Flood Statement.
River Statement ___RVS___ WFO
It is used also to communicate conditions such as low flows, chemical
spills, etc.
River Ice This product can contain numeric and/or narrative information on river
___RVI___ WFO
Statement ice conditions.
Advisories/Warnings

Product Identifier Source Description

This product normally specifies crest information and is issued
___FLW___
Flood Warning WFO for specific communities or areas along rivers where
(example)
flooding has been forecast, is imminent, or is in progress.

WGUS43 KDVN 130130

FLWDVN

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
830 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS...ROCK RIVER...IN ILLINOIS...

AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...HENRY...ROCK ISLAND... WHITESIDE

AN ICE JAM CAUSED WATER LEVELS ON THE ROCK RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE HIGHWAY 84 BRIDGE RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THIS ICE JAM HAS NOW BROKEN...BUT WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO RECEDE. THUS...A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ROCK RIVER AT JOSLIN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES (ALL LOWER CASE).

WGUS44 KEWX 121939
FLWEWX
TXC021-130554-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF
EGLIN...

THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF EGLIN...

AT NOON MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET.
MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST.
FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
FORECAST...RISE TO AROUND 18.0 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 16.0 FEET MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING CAN CUT OFF AND DROWN LIVESTOCK IN THE FLOOD
PLAIN. LOWEST ROADS AND BRIDGES ARE FLOODED AND DANGEROUS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CHANGE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.

Discussions

Product Identifier Source Description

This product summarizes the current hydrometeorological

situation, general trends of the RFC's hydrologic forecasts,
and flood potential for the entire RFC area. The types of
conditions monitored include:

• Areas where Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs)

indicate significant potential for rainfall causing runoff

• Rivers that are already above flood stage

Hydrometeorological ___HMD___ • Areas where soil moisture is above normal due to recent
RFCs
Discussion (example) excessive rainfall

• Areas covered by a significant snowpack that could readily

melt in changing meteorological conditions such as a rain-
on-snow event or a heat wave

• Areas where frozen ground could generate dangerous

runoff with moderate rainfall

• Areas where ice jam breakups could potentially produce

backwater flooding or dam-break-like flood conditions
Fatality Trends and Multi-Agency Education Programs
 Flood Fatalities
2005 42/20**
2004 79/51
2003 99/47
2002 50/31
2001 66/31
2000 41/20
1999 77/40
1998 136/86
1997 98
All vehicle-related fatalities are
shown in red. 
http://www.weather.gov/oh/hic/flood_stats/recent_individual_deaths.shtml

Water weighs 62.4 lbs. per cubic foot and typically flows downstream at 6 to 12 mph.

For each foot water rises, 500 lbs. of lateral force are applied to the car.

But the biggest factor is BUOYANCY

For each foot that water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs. of water

Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/tadd/
HYDROMETEOROLOGY VISION

Wind Gusts>50kts

Hail>2 in.

Flash Flooding
FEMA/NOAA Aerial Photos
 With proven technologies and emerging science we
can achieve an Integrated Water Prediction and
Management System…it’s time is now…it’s too late for
later

Thank You. Now any Questions and Comments

Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D.

NOAA/NSSL Research Hydrometeorologist
Suzanne.Van.Cooten@noaa.gov
(405) 325-6477