Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
By
Fortunately, this is the time when the climate control is very strong
and…also very predictable.
2 August 2005
Outlook Observed
Chance Above Normal 95-100%
Tropical Storms 18-21 22
Hurricanes 9-11 12
Major Hurricanes 5-7 6
81
84 3
86 2
..
UPPER-LEVELWINDS
EYE
lowclouds
Measuring Seasonal Activity
ACE Index
•Classifying Hurricane Seasons is Challenging
# TS, #H, # MH, # landfalling storms, etc.
Main Development
Region
MDR
30
20
Number
Total
Gulf Coast
10 East Coast
0
U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes
2002-2005
Number 15
10 Total
Gulf Coast
5 East Coast
New Orleans
Hurricanes are Not Just a Coastal Event
L H
High
Shear Warm
Warm&&Wet
Wet
L H
H Weaker Tropical
Easterly Jet L
Low Shear
H Cool
Cooland
and
Stronger Easterly DryL
Dry
Trades
Tropical 20-30 Year Signal
Active Atlantic Hurricane Phase
Surface Temperatures
Warm
Warm
warm
warm
Warm
Warm Warm
Warm
ccoool
ol cool
cool
Precipitation
Wette
Wette
DDrie rr Drie
rierr Drie
rr
Monsoonal rainfall
fluctuations with 20-30 year cycles
Observed 20-30 Year Cycles
Winds and Air Pressure at 35,000 feet
Difference Between 1995-2003 and 1971-1994
H H
H H