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1+k = [1+(0.00125+(O.12+0.02)]/[1-(0.1/(1-0.1)]
Contractually promised return on a loan =
15.52%
Effect of the credit risk on return of FI:
• The expected return on a Loan depends on
the following:
– Contractually promised return on a loan
– Probability of default
Concentration limits:
– On loans to individual borrower.
– Concentration limit = Maximum loss Loss rate.
• Maximum loss expressed as percent of capital.
– Some countries, such as Chile, specify limits by
sector or industry
Modern portfolio theory
• To apply Loan portfolio theory you need:
– (i) expected return on loan (measured by all-in-
spread);
– (ii) loan risk;
– (iii) correlation of loan default risks.
Modern portfolio theory
(formulas)
n
- Expected Return: R p X i Ri
i 1
Where:
- Ri – Mean return of i-th loan
- Xi – Proportion of i-th investment in total
portfolio
Modern portfolio theory
(formulas)
Variance: p2 X A2 A2 X B2 B2 2 X i X j i , j
X X 2 X i X j i , j A B
2
A
2
A
2
B
2
B
Where:
- Xi – Proportion of i-th investment in total portfolio
- Xj – Proportion of j-th investment in total portfolio
- δi – Standard deviation of i-th investment
- δj – Standard deviation of j-th investment
- δi,j – Covariance between the returns of i and j investments
- ρi,j – Correlation between the returns of i and j investments
Modern portfolio theory (Example)
• Loan A:
– Return = 5%+2% - 25%*3% = 6.25%
– Risk = [3%*(1-3%)]0.5x 25% = 4.265%
• Loan B:
– Return = 4.5%+1.5% - 20%*2% = 5.6%
– Risk = [2%*(1-2%)]0.5x 20% = 2.8%
KMV portfolio manager model (Example)