UNECE/FAO meeting Specialists on Forest Policy in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Climate change and the forestry sector: where are we now? Presentation by UNEP - Mr Jaco Tavenier Istanbul 20 September 2010
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Overview
1- Climate Change : facts, science, causes and impacts 2- International climate change policy framework 3- Mitigating climate change (focus on forestry sector) 4- Sources of financing to address climate change with focus on the forestry sector

Climate Change Science, Causes and Impacts

The Climate Change Challenge in a Nutshell

Average temperature of the earth has risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius since 1900 Expected to rise by about 4 o C by mid-century if no action is taken Temperature rise results in extreme weather events and impacts (e.g. flooding, droughts, sea level rise, etc.) Human action mainly responsible for observed and projected climate change Risk of major economic and social disturbances particularly in developing countries Swift action required to:
Reduce the causes of climate changes (mitigation) Prepare for the impacts of climate change (adaptation)

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Complexity of the Global Climate System

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Major Greenhouse Gas Emissions Caused by Humans

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) CFCs

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Globally averaged CO2 concentration at the surface.

Majors Sectors Emitting Greenhouse Gases

Source: IPCC

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Examples of Observed Climate Change

Floods: The frequency of floods has
increased by nearly 300% in the past 30 years

Droughts/heat waves: The most

extreme three heat waves/droughts in 50 years occurred in Europe in 2003, Australia in 2009 and China in 2010

Extreme events/storms: Storms,

including hurricanes have been measured to have increased intensity since the 1980s

Source: UNEP

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Observed Impact: Changes in Physical and Biological Systems

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Projected Impact on Ecosystems

Biodiversity: decreases in the Amazon rainforest will lead to loss of species Protective function: loss of mangrove forests leave coastal regions vulnerable to storm surges Loss of habitat: warming temperatures on mountains mean climatic habitats shift in altitude Agriculture: Loss of productivity as crops fail in warmer temperatures mean that between 5 million and 170 million additional people are predicted to be at risk of hunger by 2080 Freshwater: Less security of water supply as more droughts and less rain occurs
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Projected Impact on Forests (Europe)

Forest area is expected to expand in the north, decreasing the current tundra area by 2100, but contract in the south; Native conifers are likely to be replaced by deciduous trees in Western and Central Europe; The distribution of a number of typical tree species is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean; Tree vulnerability will increase as populations/plantations are managed to grow outside their natural range

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Projected Impact on Forests (Europe) cont

In northern Europe, climate change will substantially increase net primary productivity (NPP) and biomass of forests; In the northern and maritime temperate zones and at higher elevations in the Alps, NPP is likely to increase. However, by the end of the century in continental Central and Southern Europe, NPP of conifers is likely to decrease due to water limitations and higher temperatures; Negative impacts of drought on deciduous forests are also likely; Abiotic hazards for forest are likely to increase, although expected impacts are regionally specific.

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Economic Implications of Climate Change

Climate change could cost from 5 to 20 percent of global GDP if no action is taken. Source: Stern Report, 2006 Costs arise from preventing, preparing for and repairing the damage from climate change impacts Industries particularly affected
Timber Fisheries Tourism Travel Agriculture

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

International Climate Change Policy Framework

The Growing Importance of Climate Change

Climate change, and how we address this issue, is a defining issue of our era.
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, 2007

The battle against climate change can not be won without the worlds forests - this is now clear
Ban Ki-moon, 2009
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Need for a Global Approach to Address Climate Change

Climate change is a global problem that requires global solutions GHG emission contribute to climate change irrespective of their origin Majority of countries will be negatively affected if no action is taken Need for a (new) global regime to
Regulate

global reduction of GHG emissions Provide support to developing countries to adapt to climate change Create a sustainable development path in all countries
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)?

First international framework agreement governing global efforts to combat CC Complemented by a protocol specifying details (Kyoto Protocol) Entered into force in 1994 Currently has 194 Parties: 193 States and 1 regional economic integration organization (EU) Objective: to stabilize the greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system..
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Two-Track Approach under the Convention

Mitigation
Actions

taken to cut net emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce climate change

Source: UNEP

Adaptation
Actions

taken to help in coping with changing climate conditions and impacts

Source: UNITAR

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What is the Kyoto Protocol?

Strengthens the UNFCCC by providing detailed targets and timelines for GHG emission reductions Adopted in 1997; entered into force in 2005 Will expire in 2012 192 Parties (191 States and 1 regional economic integration organization (EU)) Key concepts: Legally binding reductions in GHG emissions established only for industrialized countries; Developing countries are exempt of GHG emissions reductions (Non-Annex I Parties)
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Mitigation Commitments of industrialized countries

Industrialized countries (Annex B KP) shall individually or jointly:
Reduce

their emissions by at least 5 % below 1990 levels by the 2008 to 2012 period

Reduction of Emissions: key categories

Energy Industrial

processes, solvent and other product use Agriculture Land use change and forestry Waste Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The 3 Kyoto Mechanisms

Three Kyoto Mechanisms create flexibility for emission reductions
1. 2. 3.

Emission Trading known as the carbon market Joint Implementation (JI) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Basic concept and rationale

Emission reduction can be more cost-effective in some countries/facilities than others Creates potential for market exchange and win-win situations

Designed to boost the cost-effectiveness of mitigation

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Further obligations of industrialized countries

Responsibility to provide additional financial resources to developing countries Assist particularly vulnerable developing countries to meet costs of adaptation Facilitate the transfer of climate-friendly technologies

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Commitments of All Parties (industrialized and non industrialized)

Develop national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions Formulate mitigation and adaptation measures Cooperate in technology transfer Promote sustainable development Take into account climate change considerations into development planning Promote and cooperate in research Cooperate in information exchange Promote and cooperate in education, training and public awareness Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Key Elements of 2009 Copenhagen Accord

Global commitment to keep temperature increase below 2C Emission reduction Submission of commitments of all Parties Voluntary action by LDC and SIDS on basis of support provided Principle financial commitments from developed countries USD 30 billion for period of 2010-2012 USD 100 billion a year by 2020 New additional funding for REDD+ Technology transfer and forestry support Recognition of REDD to allow mobilization of financial resources from developed countries Establishment of a Technology Mechanism
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The Path to COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico

October 2010: 4-9 AWG sessions in Tianjin, China Cancun, Mexico, 29 Nov -10 Dec 2010 16th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 16) 6th COP Serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 6)

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Mitigating Climate Change

Mitigation options for the forestry sector

What is Climate Change Mitigation?

Mitigation is any actions that cuts net emissions of greenhouse gases by: reducing sources of greenhouse gases Increasing sinks of greenhouse gases Includes but is not limited to technological, political, structural or financial action

Source: FAO

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The Forestry Sector: deforestation and climate change

Deforestation results in the release of the carbon stored in trees as CO2 emissions. It is estimated it contributed globally to approximately 20 % of annual GHG emissions in the 1990s.

Source: FAO

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How forest related activities can reduce GHG emissions?

1. 2.

Establishing, enhancing or protecting forests ecosystems. Managing forests in a sustainable way: a. Management for conservation (prevent emissions) b. Management for storage (short-term measures over the next 50 years ) c. Management for substitution (long-term measures). Sustainable producing wood fuel from forests, which can displace fossil fuels.

3.

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Mitigation measures applicable to Forestry sector

Maintaining or increasing forest area
Increase plantations (wood energy) Eliminate illegal logging

Maintaining or increasing site carbon density Promote voluntary certification schemes for sustainable forest management Increasing off site carbon stocks in wood products and enhancing product and fuel substitution Monitoring vulnerable forest areas (avoiding forest fires and pest attacks)

Source: Scientific American

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Co-Benefits Resulting from Mitigation in the Forestry Sector

Enhanced diversity of energy mix and energy supply security Improved local employment, e.g. through decentralized energy production and development of the forestry industry Improved local industrial development Better use of the ecosystem services provided by forests
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UN REDD Programme: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

Seeks to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests Offers incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in lowcarbon paths to sustainable development The REDD Fund contains over 74 million US dollars for forest projects REDD+ projects can include:

Preventing deforestation and forest degradation Conservation of forests Sustainable management of forests Enhancement of forest carbon stocks
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Sources of Financing to Address Climate Change in the Forestry Sector

Overview of Sources to Finance Climate Action

1.

2.

3.

4.

National and Sub-national Budgets (public) Multilateral Funds and Official Development Aid (ODA) (public) Market-Based Mechanisms / Carbon Financing (public / private) Private Funds

Source: Fotolia

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1.National and Sub-National Budgets

Tax incentives to promote certain investments Support for research and development (e.g. for new technology) Loan guarantees for private investment Funding of basic infrastructure development (e.g. transport) Feed-in tariffs, etc.

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

2. Multilateral Funding and Official Development Aid

UN: A. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol (GEF administered)
i. ii. iii. iv. v. GEF funding under UNFCCC climate change focal area GEF Trust Fund - Strategic Priority on Adaptation Special Climate Change Fund (UNFCCC, 2001) Least Developed Countries Fund (UNFCCC, 2001) Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund (KP, 1997)

B. UN Funds and Programmes

Multilateral Financial Institutions (Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) Bilateral Development Aid
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Established in October 1991 to assist in the protection of the global environment and to promote environmental sustainable development Provides grants for projects related to six focal areas: biodiversity, climate change, international waters, land degradation, the ozone layer, and persistent organic pollutants Designated financial mechanism for several multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) including
Conventions like CBD, UNFCCC, UNCCD & Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)

Governing bodies of the GEF (GEF Council and the GEF Assembly) receive guidance from MEAs

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)

Long-term adaptation measures (top priority) A catalyst to leverage additional resources from bilateral and other multilateral sources The SCCF has four different windows: 1. Adaptation 2. Transfer of technologies 3. Energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste management 4. Activities to assist developing countries whose economies are highly dependent of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products in diversifying their economies
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Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund

Financed mainly by 2% levy on Clean Development Mechanism credits Expected total amount by 2012: USD260 million USD400 million In May 2010: USD 96 million Plus Euro 45 million from Spain Source: dfid.gov.uk) Projects must be submitted through agencies accredited by the AF Board, national or multilateral (WB, UNDP) more or less than USD1 million Operational policies and Guidelines

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Multilateral Development Banks

MDBs include
Bank Regional Development Banks  African Development Bank  Asian Development Bank  European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  Inter-American Development Bank Group
World
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Forest Investment Programme - FIP (World Bank)

The FIP supports developing countries efforts to reduce deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) and promotes sustainable forest management that leads to emission reductions and the protection of carbon reservoirs. It achieves this by providing scaled-up financing to developing countries for readiness reforms and public and private investments, identified through national REDD readiness or equivalent strategies. FIP investments also mainstream climate resilience considerations and contribute to multiple co-benefits such as biodiversity conservation, Source: World Bank etc
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Bilateral Climate Change Funds

Dedicated funds established by a country/group of countries to support Non-Annex 1 countries in implementing the global climate change regime Usually managed directly by the country which provided the financing

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

3. Market Mechanisms and Carbon Markets

Market mechanisms and carbon markets place financial value on the reduction of GHG GHG reduction may take place in any country (Annex 1 or Non-Annex 1) Carbon Financing Schemes under the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol
Joint

Implementation Emission Trading Clean Development Mechanism

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Potential of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

CDM is a market mechanism under the Kyoto protocol to encourage mitigation Allows countries with emission-reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries concrete examples.. Funding is provided by the Annex I country Projects must provide emission reductions that wouldnt normally occur Approved CDM project can earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits The CDM enables sustainable development projects in developing countries that reduce emissions or enhance sinks through afforestation or reforestation. UNFCCC
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Examples of Joint Implementation

JI projects might involve, for example, Fossil fuel switch replacing a coal-fired power plant with a more efficient combined heat and power plant Landfill gas projects (61) Wind energy (31) Afforestation/reforestation (1)
Source: UNEP Risoe Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development (URC)

Number of JI projects by type in %

Graph shows that renewables & CH4 take most of the projects, whereas afforestation is only 0.3 %

Host country for JI projects, number of projects and kERUs (September 2010)
http://www.cdmpipeline.org/ji-projects.

Climate change and the forestry sector: where are we now?

More information on http://ji.unfccc.int/JI_ Projects/ http://www.cdmpipeline .org/ji-projects.htm#1

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