Problem Solving And Decision Making

Ir Baling MASTER OF AIRLANGGA Kustriyono, MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY MM

Creative Problem Solving

Understanding the process of Creativity and Problem Solving Removing Blocks and Barriers to finding the best solution Looking at Problem Solving in 2 steps:
Problem Identification Problem Solving and Decision Making

Problem Solving Tools:

Problem Identification

SWOT Analysis
Pareto Principle Problem Re-statement (5 Whys) Problem Solving Brainstorming

Pro b l m e I e n ti ca ti n d fi o Pro b l m S o l n g e vi

7 Problem Solving Tools:

Cause and Effect Diagrams Flowcharts Checklists Control Charts Scatter Diagrams Pareto Analysis Histograms

4 of the 7 problem solving tools :

Cause and Effect Diagrams Flowcharts Checklists Pareto Analysis

Cause and Effect Diagrams

What is it? A Cause-and-Effect Diagram (also known as a "Fishbone Diagram") is a graphical technique for grouping people's ideas about the causes of a problem.

Why use it? Using a Cause-and-Effect Diagram forces the team to consider the complexity of the problem and to take an objective look at all the contributing factors. It helps the team to determine both the primary and the secondary causes of a problem and is helpful for organizing the ideas generated from a brainstorming session.

Example Causal Table:

Possible Causes of Long Wait Time
Immediate Cause Staff arrives late to work Root Cause staff member has a second job staff member must complete domestic chores before coming to work staff member experiences unexpected delay in getting to work disorganization of the files complicated storage methods complicated procedures users don't respect turns users don't bring ID cards users don't keep appointments insufficient capacity for number of users lack of automation of procedures outdated methods

Too much paperwork

Lack of user cooperation

Limited space Procedures take too long

The causes are grouped under the following headings:

policy user

personnel methods/procedures

Example a Fishbone Diagrams

Flowcharts What is it? A Flowchart is a tool that graphically represents the steps of a process or the steps that users have to take to use the service (user Flowchart). Why use it? The Flowchart helps you analyze the number of steps and the time required for each step, to detect bottlenecks, unnecessary steps, repetitions, and other obstacles.

Checklists What is it? A checklist is a tool you can use to systematically observe a process, using a list of closedended questions. Why use it? To ensure that different types of service providers in your organization are complying with the stated standards of treatment.

Example of a checklist:
Date : Hour : Place: Name of Provider : Profession : Patients Clinical File #: Did you take the patients temperature? Did you weight the patient? Did you take the patient's blood pressure? Did you take the patient's blood pulse? Yes Yes No No

Pareto Analysis
What is it? The Pareto Principle states that only a "vital few" factors are responsible for producing most of the problems. This principle can be applied to quality improvement to the extent that a great majority of problems (80%) are produced by a few key causes (20%). If we correct these few key causes, we will have a greater probability of success. Why use it? For the team to quickly focus its efforts on the key causes of a problem.

Example

What is PAID?
A logical problem solving process can be done through some steps called "PAID"

Problem Statement Analyze the problem in

detail Identify likely causes Define actual cause(s)

Problems exist when someone or something is not performing as expected. Action needs to be taken to solve the problem thus action should follow from a clear understanding of the problem. To understand problem solving it is necessary to distinguish between symptoms of a problem and its causes.

Identification of the cause of a problem is the key to problem solving. Once you know the real cause of the problem, you can decide how to deal with it

Causes and Symptoms of a Problem

It is necessary to distinguish between the symptoms of a problem and its causes. What is the best indication that a problem can be solved?

The symptoms of the problem have been treated?

OR

The cause of the problem has been isolated?

Sure symptoms treatment not a solution but once you have found the real cause of a problem you can decide how to deal with it.

Diagram of a Problem

To help understand what we are looking for when finding the cause of a problem, it is worthwhile looking at a problem diagrammatically.
Performance

Look at the diagram on the right. It shows performance over time. In this case it is constant, but is there a problem?

Actual Performance Expected Performance

The area with the positive variance is called Opportunity" An opportunity is the exact opposite of a problem. They can be analyzed in the same way as problems. You want to find out what caused an opportunity to happen that you can exploit it to the full or make it happen elsewhere.
Actual Performance Positive Variance Opportunity Negative Variance Problem

Performance

Expected Performance Actual Performance

Problems don't occur without a reason . In any situation with a problem , there must be an historical point . When actual performance started to deviate . Something happened at the time x which caused the problem to occur .
Positive Variance Opportunity Expected X Performance Negative Variance ProblemX Actual Performanc e

Performance

Problem Solving Action Flow

Set a Problem Statement

Describe the problem Develop a one sentence problem statement

nalyze the problem in detail

Analyze what is wrong Analyze what is right

dentify likely causes

What's different? What has changed? What are the most likely explanations?

efine actual cause/s

What is the most likely explanation? Can I prove it?

Avoiding Pitfalls
(A) Giving up too early (B) Jumping straight to conclusions about the cause (C) Not getting the right people involved (D) Not collecting all the relevant data

The worst one is B " because. It is always very tempting to think you know the cause of a problem straight away, jump to conclusions and take action to solve it.

Describe the Problem

The purpose of describing the problem is to create an impressionistic view of it - something on which to lay a solid foundation for further work. Choose what you would do first from this list:

A.Write down a list of possible causes B.Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a structured picture of the problem C.Write down everything you know about the problem D.Interview the people you think are to blame for the problem

Describe the Problem

The purpose of describing the problem is to create an impressionistic view of it - something on which to lay a solid foundation for further work. Choose what you would do first from this list:

A.Write down a list of possible causes B.Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a structured picture of the problem C.Write down everything you know about the problem D.Interview the people you think are to blame for the problem

Brainstorming Creative thinking techniques have a potentially powerful role in the PAID process. They are a very good starting point when you have a blank piece of paper. They can help you get insights into the nature of the problem that purely analytical techniques couldn't. many people broadly know what it means, but don't do it properly. Even though it's a creative thinking technique it has several rules which must be followed to make it work.

Brainstorming

See if you can identify what we can use brainstorming for as part of sorting out a statement of the problem. To generate as many ideas as possible about: A.The overall nature of the problem B.The actions to be taken to solve the problem C.Possible causes of the problem D.Specific aspects of the problem

Brainstorming

See if you can identify what we can use brainstorming for as part of sorting out a statement of the problem. To generate as many ideas as possible about: A.The overall nature of the problem B.The actions to be taken to solve the problem C.Possible causes of the problem D.Specific aspects of the problem

Brainstorming

You are the leader of a brainstorm session looking at a customer service problem. A member of the group gives an idea you know is completely irrelevant. What should you do? A.Write down the idea as stated B.Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that down C.Ignore the idea completely D.Ask members of the group whether they think the idea is relevant

Brainstorming

You are the leader of a brainstorm session looking at a customer service problem. A member of the group gives an idea you know is completely irrelevant. What should you do? A.Write down the idea as stated B.Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that down C.Ignore the idea completely D.Ask members of the group whether they think the idea is relevant

Bug Listing

When listing the things they liked, the group got a very different set of ideas. It is quick and easy to use and very useful for getting a feel about problems. It can also be used later when you are looking for the areas you need to specify in detail.

Reversals 'Reversals' is a simple technique which is useful at any stage in the PAID process. It is good to use at the start of the process because it's fun. You simply take an issue that you planned to brainstorm and reverse it! You then brainstorm the reversed issue. It's best explained by example. Here are a few issues and possible reversals:

How to attract more customers into my store

How to reduce the quality of customer service

How to improve the quality of customer service

How to reduce the number of customers visiting my store

Setting the Problem Statement

A problem statement is a single sentence which embraces your understanding of the problem. Not the cause of the problem, but the problem itself.

Setting the problem statement is the single most important action you will take in the whole problem solving process. It is so important that you must be prepared to put in time and effort to get it right.

Setting the Problem Statement

But why is setting the problem statement so important? Several potential reasons are given below

1.Get the problem statement wrong and you will search in the wrong areas for the problem's cause. 2.A clear problem statement enables you to decide what work must be completed to find the cause. 3.Keeping the problem statement visible during the search for the cause keeps effort focused in the right area.

4.

The problem statement provides the context within which all further work takes place.

Effective Problem Statements

If a problem statement is to do its job it must be:

A single sentence. Precise. Understandable to a person with no knowledge of the problem area. Neutral. Based on the description of the problem.

The Completed First Stage

When you have completed the first stage of the PAID problem solving process you will have: A description of the problem. This will probably contain things like:

1.Your notes on how you see the problem 2.Notes of conversations with other people involved 3.Examples of how the problem manifests itself 4.Write-ups of brainstorms, bug lists or reversals 5.Any available statistics which showed you have a problem

You will then sort out all this information to produce:

The Problem Statement

A one sentence statement which incorporates your understanding of the problem

Analyzing what is wrong

Here you are aiming to develop a detailed specification of the problem. This involves measuring its scale and scope, determining what the detailed symptoms are and the negative consequences they cause. It also needs to determine who is involved and when and how often the problem occurs.

Analyzing what is right

The purpose of this is to determine what the problem is not. If things are going well, then they can't be part of the problem. By analyzing what is right you can eliminate potential causes of the problem and limit the

Overview
Analyze the Problem in Detail Though both activities are equally important, this is rarely reflected in how problem solvers behave. Individuals and teams attempting to solve important organizational problems, nearly always focus on what is wrong,

Overview
Analyze the Problem in Detail The result are solutions that come to wrong conclusions, vital aspects of the situation are ignored and underlying problems remain unsolved. Make sure you avoid the trap of concentrating only on what is wrong and ignoring what is right

The Role of Questions Asking questions is the key to analyzing problems. A systematic approach to questioning ensures you don't miss any important areas. If you don't ask the right questions, you can't possibly get the right answers. The best questions nearly always start with: What? Why? When? Who? Where? How much? Because such questions cannot be

How do you decide which questions to ask?

Essentially, your problem statement and description of the problem are the best starting points for generating questions. You should also think of holding a creative thinking session to generate questions. This is an area where the techniques are particularly useful. Brainstorming, bug listing and reversals can all be used in this context.

Herringbones
Herringbones are a variant of the Ishikawa Fish Bone and serve the same purpose. The Ishikawa Fish Bone was invented in Japan for use by teams working in quality circles when trying to solve problems. They are most commonly used in operations departments.

Herringbones
The technique is particularly useful in determining what needs to be analyzed. A herringbone is like a structured brainstorm. You write down the issue you want to cover in the box marked 'Problem Statement', then brainstorm it using the

Look at an example of a completed herringbone The issue was a backlog of work. A herringbone is a structured brainstorm, where the headings on each 'bone' provide a structure appropriate to the problem that needs to be solved.

Analyzing the Problem

Here are some what questions you might find handy when attempting to solve a problem.

Questioning Tool Box What is wrong? What did you do about it? What was the result? What happened next? What was their reaction? What are the symptoms? What are their effects? What did you notice first?

The list isn't exhaustive, but should be enough to give you a clue how to go about using them.

Analyzing the Problem

"When" questions aim to pinpoint exactly when the symptoms began to appear. In other words you are trying to track down the point x in time. So the key question is: When did it start going wrong? If you can discover the point x, then something must have happened at that point in time to cause the symptoms. Once you discover what happened, then you have found the cause of the problem.

Analyzing the Problem

Where questions isolate the parts of the organization or geographical area where the symptoms are being experienced. There is no point in looking for the cause of a problem in areas of the organization which don't exhibit symptoms. You also need to know who is involved

Analyzing the Problem

To summaries, the key questions you need to ask are:

What is wrong? When did it go wrong? How much went wrong? Where did it go wrong? Who is involved?

Analyzing What is Right

There is no need to go into detail about the types of question you should ask to explore what is right. They are the mirror images of those you ask when analyzing what is wrong. Basically, they are based around:

What am I satisfied with? When are things correct? How much is correct? Where are things correct? Who is not involved?

Identify Likely Causes

Identify the differences between what you have identified from your analysis of what is right and what is wrong. What has changed? Something happened to cause the problem. What are the most likely explanations?

This will enable you to discover what is distinctive about the problem.

So what things changed round about the time the problem started to manifest itself.

The work you have done so far should enable you to identify potential causes of the problem.

What's Different? In this stage of the PAID process you are looking for things which are:

Distinctive in the symptoms identified which distinguish the problem situation from the areas where you are satisfied Distinctive in the parts of the organization and specific locations where the problem arises which distinguish them from the areas where you are satisfied

What's Different? In this stage of the PAID process you are looking for things which are: Distinctive about the time a problem arises from times when it does not Different about a group which is affected by the problem compared to groups which are not affected by it

What Has Changed?

People. These include changes in personnel, organization structure, workgroups, skill levels and leadership style Materials. Use of different materials, changes in material specification and changes in quality are all relevant

Often the changes involve:

What Has Changed?

Often the changes involve:

Equipment. This includes introduction of new equipment and changes in maintenance procedures Processes. Introduction of new systems and procedures, changes to patterns of communication,

Define Actual Causes

Identifying what is the most likely explanation. Of all the potential causes identified which is the most likely explanation for all the symptoms which have been identified?

Proving the cause. This involves testing whether the cause identified can explain all the symptoms presented by the problem.

The Most Likely Cause

Does it explain all the data you have collected about the problem and what is wrong? Is it consistent with the data you have collected about things which are right? If the potential cause should be generating symptoms in areas which are right, but it is not, then that cause can be eliminated.

The Most Likely Cause

They would be solving the wrong problem. They would focus on initiatives to sign up new retailers or retaining sales executives. They would be taking action in relation to a symptom.

Proving the Cause

Identification of the cause of a problem will almost inevitably lead to action designed to eliminate it. Deciding what to do involve decision making which is a distinct process in its own right and is dealt with in next chapter. If action is taken to eliminate the wrong cause, there is a strong possibility that your actions will only make matters worse. Therefore, it is often worthwhile seeing if you can prove that the most likely explanation is the actual cause.

Proving the Cause

Proving the cause involves: Checking that the actual cause identified does explain all the facts at your disposal About both the problem and those things that are right.

Testing that any assumptions you have made which support the analysis are accurate. Trying to replicate the problem situation in a controlled test.

Review

Once you have found the cause you should conduct a review to see if you can improve your performance next time round. The review should focus on three basic questions: What went well? What went less well? What should we do differently next time?

Decision Making

A decision is about making choices. It is the cut off point at which you stop the process of thinking and begin the process of action. There are many types of decisions including:

Yes or no decisions Choose from a list Creative

Making Decisions

If a decision is a cut off point when the thinking process stops, Clearly the quality of thinking determines the quality of decisions. But what is involved in the thinking process? There are many ways to make decisions and all manners of decisions to be made. Which do you think are the most difficult type? All of them!

The ICES Process

INITIATE: Deciding what to decide

This is the first important stage of any decision making process INITIATING THE DECISION

CRITERIA: Defining exactly what you want EVALUATE: Evaluating the options available

EVALUATING the options against the CRITERIA.

SELECT: Selecting the best option

Evaluating Options Generating several options will normally help you to select the one that will best help you achieve your decisions objectives. The time and effort spent generating options depends on the importance of the decision being made. Options can be generated by:

Research Informal discussion Brainstorming Meetings

Evaluating Options
So far youve learnt how to initiate the decision making process by: Describing the decision to be made Producing a set of essential and desirable criteria

There is not an optimum number of options for making an effective decision Sometimes a decision is simply just yes or no or a choice between two things.