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Tackle the Transport Industry Urban 1 Tackle the Transport Industry Urban 2 Energy Reduction in Industry GNP reductions after Oil Price rise The transition toAlternative Energy Sources Electricity From Renewable Sources More Renewable Energy Hydrogen Not a Feasible Fuel Watts From the Winds 1 Watts From the Winds 2 Super Solar Power 1 Super Solar Power 2 Renewable Energy Policy
Formulating a Strategy 1
Formulating a Strategy 2 Formulating a Strategys 3 Formulating a Strategys 4 Formulating a Strategys 5 A Smooth Transition? 1 A Smooth Transition? 2 A Smooth Transition? 3 References 1 References 2
Total OECD Total OPEC Former USSR China Other Non-OECD Total Supply
2000
2001
2002
2003
World Demand 2001-2004 Growth Rate: 1.8 %p.a. Brazil India China Europe (OECD) US World
From 2001 2004, Indias oil demand has been growing by 2.68% but it will grow by 6.33% from 2003 2004
(projection from Qtr 1, IEA, 2004)
By 2010, India will be the fourth largest consumer of oil and gas in the world (IBEF,
2004)
Peak Oil
PRO UCTION
ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) predicts 8 world oil production will peak around 2007, as shown above.
Oil Economy
The world market can be said to depend on OPEC almost entirely since it has 77% of the current world oil reserves The day-to-day market prices of oil reflect many factors like the current stocks, shipments, economic situation, speculative investment, etc. and not so much the size of reserves of oil We have now reached a stage in the exploitation of the earth where trying harder to produce more oil can have only limited results Oil consumption on a short-term basis does not depend on the price of oil, as is the case for other goods. There is a large time lag before consumers shift to alternatives or reduce demand In fact, some experts believe that a rise in oil prices increases demand on a short term basis. E.g Oil and natural gas demand growth rates in China have been in the range of 7-15% per year since 1999, despite the tripling of oil prices since then 10
Future Exploration
The major oil fields in the world have already been discovered the largest fields are always found first Except for some parts of the China Sea and of the western desert in Iraq, major regions in the world have been fully explored. Advances in geological technology allow us to predict promising areas for oil we now know reasonably well where new oil will be found Oil in the Caspian Sea has high sulfur content which corrodes the pipes and is expensive to extract and refine. Caspian Sea oil is not likely to become a significant factor in the world oil scenario. 11
Future Extraction
The best known extraction techniques are already in use in many of the giant fields in the Middle East Increase in the fraction of Oil-in-Place which is actually recovered will require diligent field management, technical knowhow, motivation and discipline, as well as capital investment, which may not always be feasible Oil which can be recovered using these techniques could give us only a breathing break, e.g. advanced recovery from Indian fields could amount to 4 MMM bbl more (Narayanan, 1999). At current Indian consumption rates, this would give us about 4 years more supply, though at world consumption rates, this will last for less than 2 months
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ERoEI
Oil is important to us as a source of energy; it is not a mineral resource A certain amount of energy must be invested to recover oil from wells ERoEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) must be greater-than-one for the extraction to be useful Oil is not like gold the energy invested to extract the gold is irrelevant If enhanced extraction requires more energy input than the output oil contains, clearly, that oil will never be extracted
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Delhi has shifted to running all its public transportation buses on gas, greatly reducing the levels of air pollution India does not have large gas reserves. The best option for India is to obtain gas from Iran, but a gas pipeline across Baluchistan (Pakistan) may have significant security liabilities
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Large population growth will itself cause an increase in energy consumption World population grew 0.33% faster from 1979-1999 than did world energy production
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This decline reflects the progress of efforts in industry to reduce the amount of oil and energy used. As a direct result of these efforts ... For a $10 increase in oil price, according to the IMF (2004), Japans GNP would lose 0.4%,. By way of contrast, Chinas GNP would lose 0.8%; The Philippines GNP would lose 1.6 % Indias GNP would lose 1.0 % 26
Hydel Power has been explored in our country; the 28 potential in Nepal has been explored, but not yet tapped
Solar power for purposes of cooking and drying has been used for many years in our country. A box solar cooker for small families can save 3-4 LPG cylinders / year. Larger cookers for 40-50 people can save up to 30 LPG cylinders / year (MNES, 2003.) 29
Other advantages include no emissions, no fuel or disposal costs and low maintenance requirement Wind energy is one of the largest contenders to build our energy future we need to realize this and act! Fluctuation in power output with wind-speed requires either a largish grid or a mechanism (e.g. pumped 32 hydro) to store energy
Solar Photovoltaic power projects of an aggregate of 2.5MW have been established in the country
(MNES, 2003)
2500 lpd Solar Water Heating System at Teachers' Training Center at Bellary, Karnataka
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Formulating a Strategy 1
We are not sure when oil is going to peak we cannot predict the oil peak accurately because of uncertainty of data and technique -- but it does not matter. We need to start action NOW. There are three aspects to consider in our energy outlook, and each must be coordinated with the other two for the effort to be successful. Isolated implementation will be ineffective. These aspects are:
Who is involved?
Increase of supply (Scientists / Technicians / Managers) Reduction of Demand (Economists and Policy Makers) Alternative energy sources (Scientists and Economists)
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Formulating a Strategy 2
We should endeavor to increase supply; but not rely on any significant increase, and plan for the worst Our growing Population, the Transport sector and Industry have the most significant impact on our energy consumption and improvements here will have far-reaching effects Tax and Incentive Policy decisions to encourage conservation and check carelessness should be implemented Control of supply and demand has limited scope; therefore - implementation of alternative sources 37 is imperative for our survival
Formulating a Strategy 3
Research and Development money may be spent on studying, researching and evaluating various new possibilities, such as methane hydrates and hydrogen fuel cells, to determine their potential, but Given that India is a developing country with limited resources, and many needs for investment, we must be very conservative when making decisions about large operational investments in such new technologies India should channel operational investments towards more proven, but under-exploited, energy resources such as wind energy, and proven techniques of improved oil recovery from existing wells 38
Formulating a Strategy 4
Renewables, Renewables, RENEWABLES!!! They will help us answer all the questions about the future of energy Localized applications Solar and Biomass Large scale applications Wind, Hydro, Solar Policy is currently focused on use of renewables where conventional power supply does not reach, or is impractical. We need to start pushing for renewables to replace other power sources Wind Energy is the most promising Nonpolluting, great potential, economically feasible
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Formulating a Strategy 5
Lastly, but not the least, we should also direct attention to facilitating a smooth transition between the current energy sources and the next generation of energy sources. This transition period could be as long as 20 years. Effective planning and diligent application will take us towards a bright tomorrow
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A Smooth Transition? 1
Any transition to alternative energy sources will be a massive world wide event comparable to the extinction of dinosaurs, or to the dot-com era. It will involve changes in lifestyle for everyone Therefore, India needs a unified energy policy. There is today a lack of coordination between the various ministries dealing with Coal and Hydro, Electricity, Petroleum, Nonconventional energy, and Scientific energy research. Systems (a consultation process? an organization?) must be established to coordinate their policies and develop a unified energy policy for India. Such a policy should take into account petroleum depletion, conservation efforts, and the transition to renewable sources, as well as other relevant issues, such as pollution-control and global warming (which constrain many options, such as using more Coal). 41
A Smooth Transition? 2
The transition to the next generation of energy includes
-- Political recognition, at the highest level, of the importance of this transition Accumulation of (our own) reserves of extractable oil through technological innovation Time-targeted set up of plants for alternative and renewable energy Time-targeted and sector-wise reduction in our petroleum consumption and CO2 generation (which leads to Global Warming) Anticipation of geo-political and economic changes that will occur in the world as related to energy issues Identification of specific sectors where reforms need to be implemented Prudent decision making regarding investment in research and development in newer energy sources (e.g. methane hydrates) Implementation of effective and transparent politico-economic policies to encourage the setting up and profitable survival -- of renewable power plants, such as wind farms, micro-hydel power plants, solar thermal: covering issues such as subsidies v/s buyback v/s tax rebates v/s simplified licensing, as well as other incentives, and administrative facilitation.
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A Smooth Transition? 3
The transitional changes must be gradual and will involve long term planning and policy, starting from today India as a developing country may have an advantage over more developed countries; we have the opportunity to set up infrastructure with a broader outlook; our economy is not yet as locked into petroleum as some others - and has a low percapita consumption. Renewable sources of energy are preferable in many ways to the use of fossil fuels, we dont need to wait till we run out of oil to change over Global policy needs to be considered so that we can continue importing oil till we can sustain ourselves with other energy sources thus, collaboration with other nations to introduce global rationing is definitely an idea to consider
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References 1
Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources, Annual Report 2003, India Notes on Demands for Grants, 2001-2002, MNES, India Wind Energy Development Incentives in Selected Countries, Louise Guey-Lee, EIA Wind Energy in India, V. Bakthavatsalam, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd., India Power Generation from Wind Energy in India, www.techo-preneur.net Potential for use of renewable sources of energy in Asia and their cost effectiveness in air pollution abatement o Tata Energy Research Institute, India o Energy Research Institute, China o Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands o IIASA, Austria Wind Power: experiences and future direction, TERI, India www.teri.org Viable Alternatives, Arcot Ramchandran, TERI, India Ten Steps to a Sustainable Energy Future, Rudolf Rechsteiner rechsteiner@rechsteiner-basel.ch The Association for Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Newsletter 42, June 2004 www.peakoil.net Energy Information Administration (EIA), India Report, March 2003 www.eia.doe.gov EIA website data, World Oil Supply 2000-2004 The End of Cheap Oil, Colin J. Campbell & Jean H. Laherrre, Scientific American, Mar 98
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References 2
Nationmaster.com Worldoil.com Radovic Oil, 1999 Oil market report, IEA, June 2004 www.oilmarketreport.org Oil Strategy and Energy Economic Considerations for India, Andrew McKillop, March 2004 Indian Energy Strategy and Central Asia, Maj. Gen S.C.N Jatar Interview Dr. Colin Campbell, Petroleum Geologist, Dec 2002 www.peakoil.net The Future of Energy, Guinness Atkinson, 2004 Indias Quest for Energy, India Brand Equity Foundation, 2004 Challenges and Opportunities for Re-development of Mature Fields, Dr. Kottilil Narayanan, Petrotech, 1999 Energy, Technology and Climate: Running Out of Oil, David Goodstein ICFAI Questionnaire, Oil Shock v/s Global Economy, Replies and Comments, Andrew McKillop March, 2004 Energy Trends, Country Profiles, India 2000 Three World Oil Forecasts Predict Peak Oil Production, Richard C. Duncan, Institute on Energy and Man United States Geological Survey data Predicting the World Oil Peak, Cavallo, April 2003 45 Asia Times Online Ltd, August 2004 www.atimes.com