MANPOWER PLANNING MODELS AND TECHNIQUES

Don R. Bryant, Michael J. Maggard, Robert P. Taylor

Miloni Sanghrajka Neha Mendon Afiya Khan

Flow of the Presentation

Factors giving rise to Manpower Planning Techniques used for Manpower Planning

Judgmental Techniques Quantitative Techniques Computer Simulation

Manpower Planning Process in Various Companies

What is HRP?

HRP involves getting the right number of qualified people into the right jobs at the right time

Factors Giving Rise to Manpower Planning

Rate of Technological Change

Increasing Cost of Managing Human Resources

Resource as important as Capital

Types of Techniques
TYPE S

JUDGEMENT AL

QUANTITATIV E

COMPUTER SIMULATION

Judgmental Techniques

Estimates, Rules and Charts

Delphi Technique

Supervisor Estimates

One of the oldest and most used The technique uses:

Intuition and Experience of the man closest to the job

Short Run Forecasts

Pros and Cons

Advantages

Disadvantages

Simple Quick Can produce results in the absence of adequate data

Heavily Based on Opinion Costly Executive Time Accuracy may not be maintained

Rule of Thumb Technique

Decision Heuristics

One New Hire For Every $60,000 Increase in Sales

Pros and Cons

Advantages

Disadvantages

Simple

Designed to Maintain Status Quo May not represent future requirements

Replacement Chart

Graphic Device to ensure that suitable replacements are ready to move into vacated positions

Make use of data like age, performance levels, promotability and degree of readiness

Pros and Cons

Advantages

Disadvantages

Graphical Representation

Constructing a Chart may require a great deal of labour Does not provide a dynamic picture

Example of Replacement Chart

But as per Rothwell & Associates Inc, replacement charts encourage promotions only in silos of specialization. Instead talent pools should be used.

Talent pools may be identified underneath each level on the organization chart but are not tied to specific positions at the next

Delphi Technique

Obtains and refines group judgments through use of questionnaires The results are processed and are used On basis of these results, manpower forecasting is done

Leader identifies judgment issues and develops questionnaire.

Process of Delphi Technique

Prospective participants are identified and asked to cooperate.

Leaders send questionnaire to willing participants, who record their judgments and recommendations and return the questionnaire. Leaders compiles summaries and reproduces participants responses. Leader sends the compiled list of judgment to all participants. Participants comment on each others ideas and propose a final judgment. Leader looks for consensus

Leader accepts consensus judgment as groups choice.

Pros and Cons

Advantages

Disadvantages

Use of Anonymous Responses Reduction of Irrelevant Communication Individual Panelists Consider overlooked factors

Interests decline after a few trials Time Consuming Problems in Integrated Communication Costly

Matrix Models

Executive Planning Development

Management Manpower Planning Matrix

Talent Task Job Analysis of each position Matrix Model for Executive job under consideration Matrix provides an overview needed for Relationship

Planning Development
Man

Job Makes uses of Adjusting Personnel Training, Testing sophisticated database Changing the Job Fit to available talents Relationship Composed of 5 Matrices Talent Task Composition of the Enterprise Executive Personnel Requirements Talent Flows
Determine talent requirements for enterprise as a whole Summary Picture of the tasks to be performed and talents needed to perform them

Analysis of present and anticipated personnel requirements Forecasts based on growth and change in the organization itself Evaluates the future potentials of present executives

Depicts the training that is needed for Executive Development

Management Manpower Planning Matrix

Developed by Mason Haire Representation of the characteristics of personnel flow on one axis and the factors in the organization which may affect personnel flows from the other (Training, Recruitment, Pay and Promotion)

5 Types of Moves in the Organization

People Move into the System from Outside People Move out of the System

People May Move Up

People May Move Over

People May Change their Behavior and Potential

Primary Purpose : Aid Management in determining the probabilities of varying types of personnel movement

Process
Project how many, what kind of and at what levels are the people needed

Assign subjective probabilities to the flow of personnel to fill projected jobs

Past Experience and Managerial Judgment (Move to other jobs within the system or moving out of the system)

Analyze the portfolio of management policies for influencing rates and direction of personnel flows

Chief Advantage: Aid in providing logic to comprehend the relationship among variables Present Data in Readable Form

Types of Techniques
TYPE S

JUDGEMENT AL

QUANTITATIV E

COMPUTER SIMULATION

Techniques Used for Manpower Planning

Quantitative Techniques

Statistical Methods

Operations Research Methods Goal Programming Sheridans naval Shore Activity Minimum Risk manpower scheduling

Network Methods

Time Series Analysis Stochastic Statistical Analysis

Statistical Methods
Stochastic Statistical Analysis: attempts to account for the uncertainty of future events Advantages Series of Uncertain events can be accounted through the decision tree Disadvantages Need for Historical Data

Time Series Method: Project Past Trends into the Future

Advantages Forces Forecaster to consider underlying trend Takes into account continuing patterns by past manpower data

Disadvantages Large Labor Force

Assumption that future will be continuation of the past

Operations Research Methods

Goal Programming Model: Set of goals specified subject to a set of constraints Advantage Diss advantages Handles multiple goals in multiple dimensions Provides guideline in case of hire fire decisions Loses accuracy when used in short time horizons Assumes linear fns when quadratic would be more effective Sheridans naval Shore Activity: used to calculate least cost labor mix to satisfy o/p requirements Advantage s Disadvantage s Minimum Risk manpower scheduling: forecast optimum levels of full time employment in which total work loads are not known Advantages Disadvantages Flexibility of forecasting over a period of time covering several possible transition points Cost of Data Collection and Computatio n time both are high

If desired output of the orgtn at some future pt. is known then least cost labor mix can be calculated

Arise from the requireme nts they impose

Types of Techniques
TYPE S

JUDGEMENT AL

QUANTITATIV E

COMPUTER SIMULATION

Computer Simulation
Useful in Manpower Forecasting when used to determine the effects of variations in policies, availability of personnel, and the utilization of personnel. PERSYM an entity model designed for military use. Simulated population is introduced and maintained in the form of individual records of individual people. Can be used as basis for forecasting personnel requirements Weber Model: Consists large number of tasks, objectives and interrelationships Advantage over other techniques which look at one variable or function at a time. While holding others constant.

ARMYs RESERVE Manpower Model: Produces annual projections for a ten year period of Army Reserve manpower strength, gains and losses.

INDUSTRY EXAMPLES

Illustration 1: European Air Traffic Management

Operational task managed by Air Traffic Controllers (ATC)

Shortage of ATCs

Increasin g stress

Challeng es for MP

Cost and time taken

Changing tasks and roles

Strategic perspective of Manpower Planning (MP)

Overall strategic ATM plan

Strategic Manpower Planning

HRM

Manpower Planning Model

Traffic Deman d No. of ATCs required

ATC surplus or shortage

ATC available

Inflow (trainee ATC)

Other Demands (training, special projects, leave and absences)

Outflow (retirements, transfers etc) No. of ATC to recruit

Component of ATC MP methodology

Estimating ATC manning requirement

ATC available

Estimating ATC manning requirement

1.

Analyzing Air traffic demand

Historic data Statistics

2.

Estimating the Number of ATCs Required

Estimating the Number of ATCs Required

Formula 1: The minimum number of ATCs required (Multiplication Factor) Total Position Time/year = Minimum no. of Effective hours per ATC/yearATC required

Formula 2: The maximum number of ATCs required (Manning Calculation Method) No. of duties per day X 365 = Maximum no. of Effective working days ATC required per ATC / year

ATC available
Estimating the number of ATCs available, at any given time in the future, requires an understanding of the inflows, throughflows and outflows affecting the pool of ATCs available i.e.: projected number of current ATCs available to man positions plus the ab initios in training who are expected to succeed less the number of ATCs expected to retire less the expected number of ATCs who have transferred out of operational positions less the expected number of ATCs who may have resigned, etc

Illustration 2. MANPOWER PLANNING PROCEDURE IN ONGC

CORPORATE LEVEL GOAL CORPORATE PLAN IDENTIFICATION OF WORKLOAD ANALYSIS BY HR CRITICAL REVIEW & ESTIMATION SCRUTINY BY KEY EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN & MDS APPROVAL ISSUANCE OF SANCTION ORDER BY HR ACTION FOR RECRUITMENT

Illustration 3: Unilever

Annual Planning replaced by quarterly forecasting Forecasting outsourced to Accenture Accenture (Sends cognos report on historic activity)
Unilever Global Resourcing Manager (Send forecasting templates to HRBP) HRBP (Discuss with managers & check succession plan) Unilever Global Resourcing Manager (Consolidated global forecast) Accenture (Check forecast against actual figures)

Thank You