Introduction to LEAP

Developed at the Stockholm Environment Institute Has been adopted by hundreds of oraganisations in more than 150 countries worldwide. Widely-used software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment LEAP has had a significant impact in shaping energy and environmental polices worldwide.

What Can be Done With LEAP

Tool for Strategic Integrated EnergyEnvironment Scenario Studies:

Energy Outlooks (forecasting) Integrated Resource Planning Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis Energy balances and environmental inventories

Scenario Analysis
LEAP is designed around the concept of longrange scenario analysis. Scenarios are selfconsistent storylines of how an energy system might evolve over time. Using LEAP, policy analysts can create and then evaluate alternative scenarios by comparing their energy requirements, their social costs and benefits and their environmental impacts.

Forecasting & Backcasting

Where is society going? forecast

?
?
Where do we want to go? How do we get there? backcast

Integrated Planning

LEAP is an integrated modeling tool that can be used to

track energy consumption, production and resource extraction in all sectors of an economy. account for both energy sector and nonenergy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources and sinks. analyze emissions of local and regional air pollutants, making it wellsuited to studies of the climate cobenefits of local air pollution reduction.

LEAP Modeling Capabilities

Energy Demand
Hierarchical accounting of energy demand (activity levels x energy intensities). Optional modeling of stock turnover.

Energy Conversion
Simulation of any energy conversion sector (electric generation, transmission and distribution, CHP, oil refining, charcoal making, coal mining, oil extraction, ethanol production, etc.) Electric system dispatch based on electric load-duration curves. Modeling of capacity expansion.

Energy Resources:
Tracks requirements, production, sufficiency, imports and exports. Optional land-area based accounting for biomass and renewable resources.

Costs:
All system costs: capital, O&M, fuel, costs of saving energy, environmental externalities.

Environment
All emissions and direct impacts of energy system. Non-energy sector sources and sinks.

LEAP Modeling Methodologies

LEAP provides a range of accounting and simulation methodologies that are powerful enough for modeling electric sector generation and capacity expansion planning, but which are also sufficiently flexible and transparent to allow LEAP to easily incorporate data and results from other more specialized models. LEAPs modeling capabilities operate at two basic conceptual levels.
At one level, LEAP's builtin calculations handle the energy, emissions and costbenefit accounting calculations. At the second level, users enter spreadsheetlike expressions that can be used to specify timevarying data or to create a wide variety of sophisticated multivariable models, thus enabling econometric and simulation approaches to be embedded within LEAPs overall accounting framework.

LEAP does not currently support optimization modeling (eg, finding the model with the least cost). LEAP is intended as a medium to longterm modeling tool. Most of its calculations occur on an annual timestep. Studies typically include both a historical period known as the Current Accounts, as well as multiple forward looking

Decision Support System

LEAP is more just a model: it is a full decision support system (DSS) providing extensive data management and reporting capabilities. It can serve as both a historical database showing the evolution of an energy system and a forwardlooking scenariobased tool that can create forecasts of how a system might evolve or backcasts that examine how a society might try to meet its development goals in the energy sector. LEAP provides powerful data management tools including full importing and exporting to Microsoft Excel, Word and PowerPoint, and a rich graphical environment for visualizing data and results.

Application of LEAP an Example

Aim: To build future scenarios using LEAP in order to predict the future energy demand of the agricultural sector of Punjab, taking the base year as 2000 and extrapolating till 2030. (ENERGY DEMAND MODEL) Method: Step I: Collect data on past trends related to the energy requirements associated with field activities and agricultural inputs in Punjab. Step II: Give the past trends as input to LEAP Step III: Build scenarios in LEAP which utilize the data on past trends and extrapolate them to give future

Scenarios
Three Scenarios created:

1) Reference or Business-as-usual Scenario: Continuation of past trends, no surprises or major shift. 1%/year growth in agricultural production, on an average.
2) Moderate Improvement Scenario: Moderate improvement in agriculture production. 2%/year growth in agricultural production. 3) Accelerated Growth Scenario: Rapid growth in both food and non-food crop production. 3%/year growth in agricultural production, most crops. Emphasis on high-input, conventional farming techniques.

Simplified Representation
Inputs
Past trends and data pertaining to different variables such as cultivated area, crop yield, share of fuel consumption in agricultural sector Expressions to specify how data varies with time, i.e., Growth Rate of the variables pertaining to different scenarios The next few slides show examples of data that were extrapolated using LEAP under the three different scenarios.

Outputs
Future trends pertaining to different scenarios

LEAP

Reference Data (input):

Major crops cultivated area in year 2000

Results given by LEAP (output):

Comparison of cultivated area by different scenarios developed by LEAP

Reference Data (input):

Percent share of fuel consumption in agriculture sector

Results given by LEAP (output):

Comparison of different scenarios (Fuel consumption)

Purpose of Modeling, Conclusions Drawn

All scenarios were compared to Base (BAU) scenario and their potentials for increasing agricultural production were examined. For example,
Cultivated area in base (BAU) scenario was found to be14 thousand hectares in 2030, while in moderate improvement scenario and accelerated growth scenario it was about 18 and 22 thousand hectares in 2030 respectively. Fuel consumption in the agriculture sector in BAU scenario was about 2100 thousand tonnes in 2030, while in moderate improvement and accelerated growth scenarios it was found to be about 2,600 and 3,200 thousand tonnes.

These predictions show how fast energy needs might grow under conditions of both limited and rapid growth in Punjabs agricultural production using a LEAP model. The predictions help policy-makers to understand the energy demand of the agricultural sector of Punjab so