A Flattening Scalene Triangle: Balance of Power in the Gulf in the Last Two Hundred Years

Syed Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi syedshaheed@hotmail.co.uk

Basic Definitions of Balance Of Power

Whitman An even distribution of power, a state of affairs in which no power is so mighty so as to endanger the existence of the other Morgenthau An approximately equal distribution of power Berridge A system of big military budgets + conflicting alliances
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Gulf States

Gulf Region

Oil Reserves

- thousand million barrels -

Saudi UAE Kuwait Oman Qatar Total Arabia GCC 261.5 97.8 96.5 5.1 3.7 464.6

Total Gulf 676.3

WORLD TOTAL 1037.1

- Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1997 -

Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Oil Reserves (continued)

Structure of world oil reserves
Non-GCC Gulf (Iran and Iraq) 20.41% UAE 9.43%

Saudi Arabia 25.21%

GCC 46% Rest of the World 34,79% Oman 0.49% Qatar 0.36%
Rest of the World Non-GCC Middle East states Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Oman

Kuwait 9.30%

Qatar

Oil Reserves (continued)

Structure of the Proven Oil Reserves for the GCC States
Qatar 1%

Oman 1%

Kuwait 21%

Saudi Arabia 56% UAE 21%

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1997

Iran
The most powerful country in the Gulf 65 million people and a shoreline that borders the entire Gulf Strategic depth: major cities are located in the interior of the country, plenty of loading facilities but ports are vulnerable Independent nation state with a long military tradition
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Iraq
Around 20 million people, very limited access to the Gulf No strategic depth: Shatt-Al-Arab, point of entry in the Gulf, is very vulnerable Major cities and industrial centers are located along a eastern spine bound by the two main rivers Fragmented, non homogenous country
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Six GCC States

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Oman (GCC) Small population: no more than 15 million natives Vulnerable strategic locations: oil fields, coastal states capitals, desalinization plants Different geo-strategic interests of member states: Upper Gulf versus Lower Gulf
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Six Attempts at Balancing Power in the Gulf

British attempt 1820-1971 Stability by proxy 1971-1979 Balancing by war 1980-1988 Iraqi bid for regional hegemony 1990-1991 Dual containment 1991-2003 Pax Americana? 2003Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

The Gulf As a British Lake 18201971

East India Co. opens agency in Basra 1723 Need to maintain secure waterway to India Treaties followed by exclusive agreement 1892 that gives Britain a formal role Suez crisis of 1956: British role becomes symbolic British withdrawal announced in 1968 and carried out in 1971
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

The Nixon Doctrine: Search for Stability by Proxy 1971-1979

Two Pillar Strategy: Saudi Arabia and Imperial Iran as guarantors of Gulf security Iran tried to stake role as regional hegemon which led to friction with other states Iranian bullying: Seizure of islands in 1971 and Algiers agreement of 1975 Islamic revolution of 1979 ends experiment
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Balance of Power through War: Iran-Iraq Conflict 1980-1988

Saddam Hussein tries to take advantage of Iranian turmoil and launches invasion After the initial Iraqi success Iran gains initiative in 1982 and in 1986 starts winning Increasing great power support for Iraq forces Iran to accede to ceasefire in 1988 Iran: 400 thousand death Iraq 200 thousand Material cost: $ 150 to 300 billion
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

The Iraqi Bid and Dual Containment 1990-2003

Sensation of victory encourages Iraqi bid for hegemony after end of Iran-Iraq war Invasion of Kuwait can be seen as last act of the Iran-Iraq war Desert Storm inaugurates Americas role as the new balancer Policy of Dual containment flattens the triangle, America provides security directly
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Pax Americana? 2003 Invasion and occupation of Iraq make United States domestic actor On the Arabian peninsula American progressive disengagement from Saudi Arabia towards littoral states Direct military presence in Iraq likely to be long term Where does the Gulf go from here?
Matteo Legrenzi, Universit di Padova, 29 Maggio 2006

Gulf Region