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QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES
QUANTATIVE TECHNIQUES
CONSUMER
SURVEYS
Gathering of information Surveys are conducted to assess consumers perception of various aspects Drawback of this method
MARKET
Qualitative techniques
EXPERIMENTATIONS
Seller of a product introduces variations and tries it out in a representative market High cost technique Advantage
CONSUMER CLINICS
Consumers are asked to act in a simulated situation These are laboratory experiments
VIRTUAL SHOPPING
A representative sample of consumers shop in a virtual store simulated on the computer screen Eliminates the high cost in terms of time and money Consumer reaction recorded
Demand forecasting
1) Experts Opinion Poll 2) Reasoned Opinion-Delphi Technique 3) Consumers Survey- Complete Enumeration 4) Consumer Survey-Sample Survey 5) End-user Method of Consumers Survey
1) Time series analysis or trend method 2) Barometric Techniques or Lead-Lag indicators method 3) Correlation and Regression
EXPERTS OPINION POLL Experts are requested to give their opinion or feel about the product Number of such experts is large and their experience-based reactions are different
Also called the hunch method
Forecaster undertakes a complete survey of all consumers whose demand he intends to forecast
Principle merit of this method Not feasible where a large number of consumers are involved
Select a few consuming units out of the relevant population Total demand of sample units is finally blown up to generate the total demand forecast. Comparison to the former survey Sampling error can decrease with every increase in sample size
TREND ANALYSIS Relies on historical data to predict the future The simplest form of forecasting using trend analysis is the projection into the future of the current value of an economic variable Advantage
Limitation
Appropriate for long-run forecasts, but inappropriate for short-run forecasts
E.g. One might forecast that next year sales would be a function of sales in the existing year or alternately next year sales would be a function of this years sales and the change in sales between this year and last year. Or a forecaster might predict next year sales based on sketching a line that appears to best fit the historical data
BAROMETRIC TECHNIQUES OR LEADLAG INDICATORS METHOD Use of current values of certain economic variable called indicators to predict the future values of other economic variable
Ideally, changes in leading indicators consistently precede changes in values of other variables
EXAMPLE
REGRESSION AND CORRELATION Use of econometric methods to determine the nature and degree of association between/among a set of variables
A SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL Case where demand is stated as that between the dependent variable and only one independent variable is a simple linear regression model Regression analysis attempts to fit the best possible linear relationship between the dependent and the independent variable
Y = a + BX + u Y is the dependent variable (Petrol consumption) X is the independent variable (distance traveled) a is the intercept ; b is the slope; u is the error term.
PROBLEMS IN REGRESSION
MULTICOLLINEARITY
IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM
EXAMPLE
Case examines the wide variation in the demand for call centers. Importance of demand forecasting for call centers Difficulties involved in estimating the demand for call centers Various strategies that can be adopted to overcome uneven demand conditions
NIYAZ QURESHI RAHAT ADENWALLA SAAD SYED SHEHNAZ SHAIKH SURAJ THAKUR VISHAL MANDOWARA
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