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The global crisis vs. the Great depression: Similar shocks but strikingly different policy reactions
The Great Depression and the Great Recession are triggered by financial shock. Policy reaction is different: balanced budget , no bank bailouts and no credit easing in the former; fiscal stimulus, bank bailouts and credit easing in the latter.
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Key Differences
1. Responses of both fiscal and monetary policies today are much swifter and vigorous than they were during the first three years of the great depression
The deficit declined in fiscal 1935 by roughly the same amount it had risen in 1934. The US was on a gold standard throughout the Depression. In April 1933, Rosevelt temporaryily suspended the convertibility to gold and let Dollar depreciate substantially. When US went back on gold at the new higher price of gold, large quantities of gold flowed in and caused expansion of money supply. The expansion of money broke expectations of deflation.
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Fed Rate
Bank bailouts
The monetary base was flat during 1929-33; it was doubled during 2008
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Monetary institutions
3. There are two important differences in monetary institutions: First there was no banking deposit insurance at the time. As a matter of fact deposit insurance was introduced only after Roosevelt became president in March 1933
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Gold Standard
4. US was in the great depression on the gold the standard. The maintenance of a fixed parity with gold collided with the use of monetary policy to offset domestic unemployment during the first three years of the great depression. For this reason the US abandoned the gold standard under Roosevelt. Obviously, since the $ is floating vis--vis other major currencies, no such constraint operates in the current crisis.
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Great Depression
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Informational capital
4. Fourth, the fact that a relatively large number of banks disappeared during the great depression led to the destruction of banking informational capital about the credit worthiness of potential borrowers
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Global imbalances
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Greece
Greece accounts for less than3 per cent of the eurozone economy. There is also a precedent. Hungary, Latvia and Romania have all won EU and International Monetary Fund backing, albeit with tough conditions attached.
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Spreads
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Greece
Greece accounting for less than 3 per cent of the euro-zone economy
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If factors of production are not sufficiently mobile, asymmetric shocks result in high costs of adjustment, in terms of higher unemployment in a single currency area. If there is no intergovernment fiscal coordination, the post shock recession is exacerbated.
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Sovereign Debt
But with similar debt burden spreads are high for Italy (a member of the Eurozone) but low for UK (not a member of the eurozone)
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No Insurance Mechanism
Insurance can be organized using the technique of a monetary fund that obtains resources from its members to be disbursed in times of crisis (and using a sufficient amount of conditionality).
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New fund authorized to borrow up to 440bn to lend to eurozone countries frozen out of the credit markets.
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Reasons
A country that leaves the euro area because of problems of competitiveness would be expected to devalue its newly-reintroduced national currency. But workers would know this, and the resulting wage inflation would neutralize any benefits in terms of external competitiveness. Moreover, the country would be forced to pay higher interest rates on its public debt. The private-sector balance sheet effects , causing defaults, will create massive bank runs, as in Argentina in 2001.
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More reasons
A second reason why members will not exit, it is argued, is the political costs. A country that reneges on its euro commitments will antagonise its partners. It will not be welcomed at the table where other European Union-related decisions were made. It will be treated as a second class member of the EU to the extent that it remains a member at all.
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Capital flows into emerging markets due to expansionary monetary policy in developed economies
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Developed countries loose monetary policy drives capital into emerging markets. Emerging markets start imposing capital controls China Yuan islikely to strengthen
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