PLANNING TECHINQUES

PRESENTATION ON
POPULATION FORECAST AND LINEAR MODEL

Population
A group of objects or organisms of the same kind is defined as population

Population projections and forecasts

Population projections
Projections are conditional statements about the future. They refer mostly to the exercises of extrapolation of the past trends into the future; and they do not take into account changes in the policy parameters

Population forecasts

In the long run, the policy parameters are to be incorporated in the projections. The likely effects of policy changes are to be judged and projections are to be made accordingly. Thus, when an element of judgment is added to the projections, it becomes a forecast.

Population projections and forecasts

Population projections
The reliability and usefulness of projections depend on the assumptions and their closeness to reality Population forecasts
Forecasts enjoy the advantage of being based upon the assumption or a set of assumptions which are likely to be realized in the near future and can yield a relatively more realistic picture of the future.

Population Projections
In

general, population projections are treated as predictions and are never to be termed as final population. They should be reviewed frequently in order to determine the degree to which they agree with recent demographic changes

Terminology
We use the following terminology to describe each technique in the methodology: 1. Base year - the year of the earliest observed population used to make a projection; 2. Launch year - the year of the latest observed population used to make a projection; 3. Target year - the year for which population is projected; 4. Base period - the interval between the base year and the launch year; 5. Projection horizon - the interval between the launch year and the target year
.

Population Forecasts

Analysts that undertake population forecasting have a wide variety of method available to them, all with a mix of strengths and weaknesses.

-Simple extrapolation -Complex Ratio -Complex extrapolation -Cohort Survival -Simple Ratio -Cohort Component

Factors Influencing the Choice of Forecasting Method

Do the Outputs Make Sense? --Availability of Data --Quality of Data

Needs of the Users --Geographic Detail --Demographic Detail --Temporal Detail Model Complexity --Ease of Application --Ease of Explanation Resources --Money --Personnel --Time Forecast Accuracy

Accuracy of forecasts
Research into forecast accuracy has yielded the conclusions:

Forecast accuracy generally increases with population size. Forecast accuracy generally increases for areas with slow, but steady positive growth rates. It decreases for areas with rapid population increases or population losses. Forecast accuracy generally declines as the projection horizon (distance from the launch year) increases.

Accuracy of forecasts
The

rule of thumb on base period is generally found to true; The length of the base period should generally correspond to the length of the projection horizon. --Short projection horizon (1-5 years), short base period --Long projection horizon (20+ years), longer base period

Population Projection
Projections are an extrapolation of historical data (population versus time) into the future Computation of the future changes in population numbers, given certain assumptions about future trends in the rates of fertility, mortality and migration.

Population projection
The accuracy of population projections is generally considered
directly proportional to the size of the existing population and

the historical rate of growth, and inversely proportional to the length of the time projection.

Accuracy in projections

More confidence in projection: Short time into the future Large population Historically high growth

Less confidence in projection: Long time into the future Small population Historically low growth

Population Projections
Demographers often issue
low, medium and high projections

of the same population, based on different assumptions of how these rates will change in the future.

Population Projection

Normally, population in future is governed by the following equation: Pn = Po + Number of Births (B) - Number of Deaths (D) + Net Migration (Nm) For the projection of population in 2011 (Pn), base year population (Po) in 2001, the number of births and deaths between 2001 and 2011 and net migration is required. Keeping in view the in-migration and out-migration, net migration may be either positive or negative.

Population Projections
The four approaches to population projection consist of two ratio techniques, relating one area to a larger area, and two mathematical extrapolation techniques that project population based on historical trends.

Population projections
Mathematical techniques include:
Linear growth Exponential growth Decreasing growth Correlation method Component method

Linear model
Linear growth Steady growth can be represented as: P / t = (Pb Po) / (tb to) = K1 where: P = change in population t = change in time Pb = base population (start of projection) Po = initial population (in the applicable linear growth period) tb = base year (start of projection) to = initial year (earliest year in the applicable linear growth period) K1 = growth rate = slope of line

Linear model
A projection assuming linear growth can be calculated using the formula: Pf = Pb + K1t where: Pf = future population t = tf tb = # of years projected into the future tf = future year (end of projection)

Linear Population Projection Model

Linear projection = (((launch year pop - base year pop)/ (launch year-base year)* (target year - launch year)) + launch year pop Two linear projections are developed by using two different base years. The population change between each base year and the launch year is divided by the difference in the two periods to compute an average annual population increase (or decrease). This annual increase is multiplied by the number of years in the projection horizon to generate the total population growth for the area. This growth is added to the area's launch year population to establish its population.