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Prepared by J. Scott Armstrong (details on him at jscottarmstrong.com). Please inform Scott about errors and also make suggestions (armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu) Scott has taken these slides from adprin.com, a site that he founded. That site contains interactive versions of these slides, along with linked references, videos, and webcasts, all in PPT and PPTX format that you can download.
You work for a typical firm selling a typical product in a typical market in the U.S. Last years sales were 50,000 units, which was typical for the firm. Last years advertising budget was $1 million, which was typical for the firm. You plan to spend $1.1 million on advertising this coming year by using typical advertising. How many units do you expect to sell this coming year. ___________________ units? Do your analysis and write your answer before going to the next slide.
Adapted from AdPrin.com
Elasticity method
Use the elasticity method in cases where an existing product has been advertised. Advertising elasticity (or sensitivity to advertising) expresses the percentage change in unit sales given a one percent change in advertising expenditures. Given an estimated elasticity of 0.1, if advertising expenditure were raised by 10%, unit sales would go up by 1%.
Adapted from AdPrin.com
Sethuraman & Tellis (1991), "An analysis of the tradeoff between advertising and price discounting, Journal of Marketing Research, 28, 160-174. Assmus, G, J. U. Farley & D. R. Lehmann (1984), "How advertising affects sales: Meta-analysis of econometric results," Journal of Marketing Research, 21, 65-74.
0.13 0.03
Print has more information, and can explain news. Used more for new high-involvement products
Wrights Rule
Given estimates of advertising elasticity, how much should you spend on advertising? Ad expenditure = (Elasticity) x (Gross margin per unit) x (forecasted unit sales)
Wright, Malcolm (2009), A new theorem for optimizing the advertising budget, Journal of Advertising Research, 49 (2), 164-169. To learn more, go to AdPrin.com
Application
What would be the optimum advertising budget for one of your products according to Wrights Rule?