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INTRODUCTION TO
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Introduction to the Module
1
COMPULSORY ATTENDANCE
Lecture Seminar
• Friday • Friday
• 8:20am-10:55am • 2pm-3:40pm
• Room B705 • Room B705
• Weeks 1-11 • Week 2-11
• Purpose: • Purpose:
To deliver and share To discuss solutions on
the main concepts, seminar questions, to share
principles and ideas of and resolve problems and to
the topics covered in enhance understandings on
the syllabus. the topics learned.
2
OPTIONAL ATTENDANCE
Tutorial (Drop In Advice Session) during teaching
weeks in Room B810:
Thursday 9am-11:30am
3
ASSESSMENT
3 Elements:
1st Coursework (30% of overall course grade)
- Mid-module test (16 MCQ in 1 hour)
in the Seminar of Week 8 (i.e. 10 Nov. 2006)
2nd Main Exam (70% of overall course grade)
- Unseen exam (Section A & B in 3 hours)
in Jan. 2007
3rd 80% Attendance
PASS ALL 3 elements Successful Completion of Module!
Form of assessment:
• 20-point scale grade
• Pass – 40% (Point 16) 4
SYLLABUS
Statistics Mathematics
Basic ideas, techniques Useful skills and application:
and application:
1. Collecting Data 1. Investment Appraisal
2. Summarising and Presenting 2. Index Number
Data 3. Probability
3. Analysing and Interpreting 4. Normal Distribution
Data 5. Linear Equation
4. Correlation and Regression 6. Linear Programming and
5. Estimation Optimisation
7. Time series analysis
5
LEARNING MATERIALS
AND RESOURCES
1. Module Handbook and Module Notes
2. Core Textbook
- Business Basics: Quantitative Methods, BPP Publishing (2000)
Third Edition
- Essential Quantitative Methods for Business, Management and
Finance(2006) Third edition, Les Oakshot.
6
THE END
&
THANK YOU
7
STX 1110
INTRODUCTION TO
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
LECTURE 1
COLLECTING DATA 1
8
CONTENTS
1. Statistics
- definition
- relevance/importance
3. Sampling
5. Sampling methods
9
WHAT IS STATISTICS?
10
WHY WE NEED STATISTICS?
11
Some Claims Heard on Several Occasions
• Almost 85% of lung cancers in men and 45% in women are
tobacco-related.
• Men are at least 10 times more likely than women to commit
murder.
• People tend to be more persuasive when they look others
directly in the eye and speak loudly and quickly.
• Women make 75 cents to every dollar a man makes when they
work the same job.
• A surprising new study shows that eating egg whites can
increase one's lifespan.
• There is an 80% chance that in a room full of 30 people that at
least two people will share the same birthday.
• People predict that it is very unlikely there will ever be
another baseball player with a batting average over 400.
12
“8 out of 10 owners who expressed a preference said their
cat preferred Whiskers”
10 8 2
100 8 2 90
1000 8 2 990
13
The Great Pepsi Challenge
“In recent side-by-side blind taste tests nationwide, more people
preferred Pepsi over Coca-Cola”
49%
51%
Are there any problems with this claim?
Recent?
14
1. Are you being taken in by advertising and “influential”
statistics? Do you wish you weren’t?
Solution:
Learn the tricks of the trade!
15
Stages in a statistical investigation
• Pose a question
• Collect relevant data
• Analyse the data
• Interpret the results
16
Collecting relevant data
• Identifying individuals or items to question,
test or measure (sampling)
17
DEFINITION OF
STATISTICAL TERMS
• Population
The entire set of individuals or objects of
interest.
• Sample
A portion, or part, of the population of interest.
• Sampling Frame
A numbered list of all the items in the population.
• Census
A survey in which all of the population is examined.
• Sampling
Involves selecting a sample of items from a population.
18
Population and Sample
• What is the average amount of time each week that
Middlesex University Students spend in the library?
– Population : All Middlesex University Students
– Possible sample: Students registered for STX1110
19
Sampling Frame Example
1 Damien Murphy
2 Emma Ball
3 Cathy Smith
4 Alison Megeney
5 Jaswinder Verdi
6 Kooi See Yeap
7 Gary Hearne
.
.
.
12 Zainab Kazim
20
CHARACTERISTICS OF
SAMPLING FRAME
• Completeness
• Accuracy
• Up to date
• Convenience
• Non-duplication
21
SAMPLING
Why taking a sample?
(1) Cost-benefit analysis
- Cost expensive; time consuming
- Benefit sample results are adequate
- Cost > Benefit
(2) The destructive nature of some tests
22
SAMPLING METHODS
No. Types of Sampling Process/Steps Involved
1 Simple random sampling Random number
2 Stratified sampling Subgroup; Random number
3 Systematic sampling Every nth item
4 Quota sampling Set number of items
(1) Sample is selected in such a way that every item in the population has an equal
chance of being selected.
(2) A population is divided into subgroups, called strata, and a sample is randomly
selected from each stratum.
(3) A random starting point is selected, and then every nth item of the population
is selected.
(4) Sample is selected up to a certain quota.
23
Simple Random Sampling
• An adequate sampling frame might not
exist.
25
Stratified Sampling
Gender Status Number of Proportion Number in samp
workers (p) (p × n)
Part time 50 0 .1 10
Total 500 1 100
26
Systematic Sampling
• It can be used with or without a sampling frame.
27
Quota Sampling
• The most popular method of sampling in areas such
as market research.
• The method can result in certain biases.
• Biases can be partly overcome by subdividing the
quota into different types to ensure the sample
represents the population.
• No sampling frame is necessary, although a fairly
detailed knowledge of the characteristics of a
population is required.
• It is administratively easy and relatively cheap.
28
THE SIZE OF A SAMPLE
• No specific rule
• The larger the more accurate, but …
• Mattersto consider in determining the size of
a sample:
- money and time available
- aims of the study and the precision required
- the number of subgroups or strata required
29