Understanding Ground Water Modeling

Gary Johnson Donna Cosgrove Idaho Water Resources Research Institute University of Idaho Idaho Falls

Idaho Water Resources Research Institute

Goal: link up water research and education needs with Idaho university researchers and funding National program an institute in each state Housed at U of I Objective: Unbiased research and evaluation

Outline
Modeling temperature and altitude Comparison with ground water model Ground water model description Model calibration Using the model (scenarios) What a model will and will not do

Modeling Temperature and Altitude

The model analogy

50 45

MODEL: Temp=58.4 - .0032 Altitude

Model fits a relationship To measurements or observations

Mean Temp 35

30 2000 4000 6000 Altitude 8000 10000

Model can yield a prediction or estimate an effect

SCENARIO: What is the effect of climbing 1000 feet higher on the mountain ?
50 45 3.2 degrees MODEL RESULTS: Temperature drops by 3.2 degrees

35 30 2000 Altitude 10000

Concern: Will it really cool by exactly 3.2 degrees as you climb another 1000 feet ?

Probably not. But it is your best estimate

Ground Water Flow Model Input/Output Comparison

Altitude/Temp Model
Model Input: Altitude

Ground Water Flow Model

Model Input: Recharge and discharge at all locations for time frame of interest Model Output: Aquifer water levels Spring discharge & river gains and losses

Model Output: Temperature

Ground Water Flow Model Construction Comparison

Altitude/Temp Model
Fitting the model (line) to measurements of altitude and temperature

Ground Water Flow Model

Fitting the model: model calibration to water level measurements and river gains and losses

Ground Water Flow Model Scenario Comparison

Altitude/Temp Model
Scenario: What is the effect of climbing another 1000 feet in altitude ?

Ground Water Flow Model

Scenario: What is the effect on spring discharge of pumping 100 AF at a given location ?

Ground Water Flow Model Comparison

Altitude/Temp Model
Concern: Will temperature fall exactly 3.2 degrees as you climb 1000 feet ? No but best estimate

Ground Water Flow Model

Concern: Will spring discharge decline by exactly the modeled amount in response to pumping? No but best estimate

Ground Water Model Description

Model Ins and Outs

Aquifer Recharge Precipitation Canals S.W. Irrig. Streams Trib. Valleys

Aquifer Head

Computer Model
Exchange With Surface Water

Aquifer Discharge Pumping

Inside the Black Box Computer

Model

Thousands of equations Aquifer boundary representations Aquifer property estimates

Greatest Challenges
Estimating Inputs (Recharge and Discharge) Estimating Aquifer Properties
Ability to transmit water (transmissivity) Ability to store water (storativity) River/Spring interconnection with the aquifer

Addressing Challenges: 1) Estimating Recharge and Discharge

Approach: Lots of data collection coupled with reasonable assumptions
Precipitation Soil characteristics Irrigated areas Evapotranspiration Diversions and return flows Pumping rates Managed recharge

Variation with location (each model cell) Variation with time (every 6 months from 1980-2002)

Example: Evapotranspiration

Addressing Challenges: 2) Estimating Aquifer Properties Model Calibration

Similar to fitting line through elevation/temperature data
50 45 Mean Temp
35 30 2000 4000 6000 Altitude 8000 10000 Good Model

Bad Model

Model Calibration
Estimates of aquifer recharge and discharge

MODEL

Simulated water levels and spring discharges 1980-2002

Automated
Adjust estimates of aquifer properties

Comparison

Measured water levels and spring discharges 1980-2002

Snake Plain Model Calibration

Matching change in water level in a well

Snake Plain Model Calibration

Matching Measured Discharge At Springs

Why not perfect match ?

Model is an approximation of reality
e.g. assume everything is uniform throughout entire aquifer thickness (2-dimensional)

Recharge and discharge are best scientific ESTIMATES Aquifer properties are best scientific ESTIMATES

Using the Model (Scenarios)

Basic Goals of Scenarios

Discriminating effects of specific activities or events
e.g. What is the effect of ground water pumping on spring discharge ?

Prediction (Future Conditions)

e.g. What will aquifer water levels and spring discharge be in 20 years if we continue our current practices and have average weather ?

Discriminating Effects

Spring Depletion

Results show only the effect of specified pumping on a specific reach

0 Pumping Starts Time

Prediction
Requires that we estimate future weather conditions Spring Discharge

Past Time

Future

Numerical Superposition
Effects of individual events can be summed to determine total effect
Model can be used to evaluate effects of changes in recharge and pumping, without consideration of other events
Example: effect of pumping 100 AF from the aquifer is the same whether it is a wet year or a dry year Analogy: going up 1000 feet in altitude drops the temperature by 3.2 degrees whether you are at 3000 feet altitude or 6000 feet altitude

Spring Accretion

Superimposing Effects (Superposition)

Without Pumping
Pumping Stops Time

Spring Discharge

With Pumping

Past
Time

Future

Bottom Line: What the model can do

Given: Estimates of changes in recharge or discharge The model will provide best estimates of
Changes in aquifer water level in a region Changes in spring discharge and river gains and losses for a reach along the Snake River

What the model wont do

Automatically determine changes in recharge and discharge associated with some change in land or water management
Can be lots of work Wrong input yields wrong answer

Provide point specific estimates of aquifer water level and spring discharge Provide exact solutions Assess injury in a legal sense Assess economic impact of alternatives

How to contact us
Gary Johnson
(208) 272-7885 johnson@if.uidaho.edu

Donna Cosgrove
(208) 282-7914 cosgrove@if.uidaho.edu

Idaho Water Resources Research Institute (Idaho Falls)

http://www.if.uidaho.edu/~johnson/ifiwrri/