Levee Fragility Curves and Safe Storage

Safe Storage
Relates to the concept of levee removal for FEMA mapping. Safe storage has been considered on several projects including a recent FLO-2D model FIS Study approved by FEMA. Safe storage concept can be linked

Safe Storage Concept

Even the levees in the poorest condition will store some water before failure initiates. Safe storage may only extend 1 or 2 ft above the toe of the levee but constitutes a large volume of water.

Levee Safe Storage

Safe Storage = ?

Safe Storage Issues

For the Sacramento River Basin, this volume
of storage would significantly reduced downstream flood volumes and peak discharges (floodwave attenuation).

When safe storage elevation is

exceededlevee removal vs. leave breach? For what reach length?

Levee Fragility Curves

Fragility represents a link between a geotechnical risk model and predicted water surface elevations with a flood model. Implicitly defines levee failure risk for hazard mapping.

Background
Levee core and shell materials vary significantly especially in older levees Levees often failure before overtopping due to piping Breach expands to complete failure while flood waters are still rising

Corps Developed Fragility Curves on the Sacramento River

Method: 1. Select curve 2. Select likely failure point

3. Determine distance below crest

Levee Geotechnical Investigation

Core and shell material
Percent fines vs. local spoil material

Construction methods
Compaction vs. spoils

Foundation condition
Sand boils

Field inspection, in-situ borings, lab testing

Fragility Curve Data

Create Fragility Curves Data in BREACH.DAT
Curve ID LFP Dist. Below Crest

FS1 FS1 FS1 FS1 FS1 FS2 FS2 FS2 FS2 FS2

0.03 0.15 0.50 0.85 0.95 0.03 0.15 0.50 0.85 0.98

6.0 3.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 9.0 5.5 4.0 2.0 0.0

Assign Levee Fragility Failure Data

Assign Levee Element, Select Curve ID, and LFP in LEVEE.DAT

GLOBAL DATA INDIVIDUAL LEVEE ELEMENT DATA

C P P P P P P P 3450 3558 3559 3669 3670 3782 3783

FS3 FS1 FS1 FS2 FS3 FS4 FC1 FS1

0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5

Results
FLO-2D finds the breach based on the hydraulics and the weak levees Breach can occur anywhere at any time

FLO-2D initiates piping based on water surface and prescribed duration Pipe expands to channel breach to collapse to complete failure

Benefits of FLO-2D Fragility Curves

Combines geotechnical characteristics with flood routing hydraulics for a spatial assessment of levee failure and floodwave attenuation Identifies flood risk as a function of levee failure Different levee LPF will results in different areas of flooding
Fragility Curve Simulation

NEXT UP: Sediment Transport