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+
=
El precio de un bono a 30 aos y tasa de cupn
anual de 8%, pago de cupn semestral y tasa de
rendimiento de 12% es:
=$676.7714
Valor Presente
Suponga que un administrador de portafolios
compra un bono a la par por $10 millones con un
plazo de 10 aos y tasa de rendimiento anual de
8%. Cul es el valor futuro si se mantiene el bono
hasta vencimiento y los pagos anuales se reinvierten
a una tasa anual de 10%?
22.749 millones
Valor Futuro
Suponga que un inversionista espera recibir $500
al final de cada uno de los prximos 8 aos a una
tasa de descuento de 9% anual, cul es el valor
presente de la inversin?
=$2,767.9046
Valor Presente
Suponga que un inversionista espera depositar
$300 al final de cada uno de los prximos 12
meses a una tasa de rendimiento de 8% anual,
cul ser el valor del depsito dentro de 13
meses?
=$4,044.
Valor Presente
Returns: Example
Suppose you bought 100 shares of Wal-Mart
(WMT) one year ago today at $25. Over the last
year, you received $20 in dividends (20 cents
per share 100 shares). At the end of the year,
the stock sells for $30. How did you do?
Quite well. You invested $25 100 = $2,500.
At the end of the year, you have stock worth
$3,000 and cash dividends of $20. Your dollar
gain was $520 = $20 + ($3,000 $2,500).
Your percentage gain for the year is:
20.8% =
$2,500
$520
Returns: Example
Dollar Return:
$520 gain
Time 0 1
-$2,500
$3,000
$20
Percentage Return:
20.8% =
$2,500
$520
9.2 Holding Period Returns
The holding period return is the return
that an investor would get when
holding an investment over a period of
n years, when the return during year i
is given as r
i
:
1 ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (
return period holding
2 1
+ + + =
=
n
r r r
Holding Period Return: Example
Suppose your investment provides the
following returns over a four-year period:
Year Return
1 10%
2 -5%
3 20%
4 15%
% 21 . 44 4421 .
1 ) 15 . 1 ( ) 20 . 1 ( ) 95 (. ) 10 . 1 (
1 ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (
return period holding Your
4 3 2 1
= =
=
+ + + + =
=
r r r r
9.3 Return Statistics
The history of capital market returns can be
summarized by describing the:
average return
the standard deviation of those returns
the frequency distribution of the returns
T
R R
R
T
) (
1
+ +
=
1
) ( ) ( ) (
2 2
2
2
1
+ +
= =
T
R R R R R R
VAR SD
T
=
=
o o
b a
b a Cov
Stock Fund Bond Fund
Rate of Squared Rate of Squared
Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation
Recession -7% 0.0324 17% 0.0100
Normal 12% 0.0001 7% 0.0000
Boom 28% 0.0289 -3% 0.0100
Expected return 11.00% 7.00%
Variance 0.0205 0.0067
Standard Deviation 14.3% 8.2%
10.3 The Return and Risk for Portfolios
Note that stocks have a higher expected return than bonds
and higher risk. Let us turn now to the risk-return tradeoff
of a portfolio that is 50% invested in bonds and 50%
invested in stocks.
Portfolios
Rate of Return
Scenario Stock fund Bond fund Portfolio squared deviation
Recession -7% 17% 5.0% 0.0016
Normal 12% 7% 9.5% 0.0000
Boom 28% -3% 12.5% 0.0012
Expected return 11.00% 7.00% 9.0%
Variance 0.0205 0.0067 0.0010
Standard Deviation 14.31% 8.16% 3.08%
The rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of
the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio:
S S B B P
r w r w r + =
%) 17 ( % 50 %) 7 ( % 50 % 5 + =
Rate of Return
Scenario Stock fund Bond fund Portfolio squared deviation
Recession -7% 17% 5.0% 0.0016
Normal 12% 7% 9.5% 0.0000
Boom 28% -3% 12.5% 0.0012
Expected return 11.00% 7.00% 9.0%
Variance 0.0205 0.0067 0.0010
Standard Deviation 14.31% 8.16% 3.08%
Portfolios
The expected rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted
average of the expected returns on the securities in the
portfolio.
%) 7 ( % 50 %) 11 ( % 50 % 9 + =
) ( ) ( ) (
S S B B P
r E w r E w r E + =
Rate of Return
Scenario Stock fund Bond fund Portfolio squared deviation
Recession -7% 17% 5.0% 0.0016
Normal 12% 7% 9.5% 0.0000
Boom 28% -3% 12.5% 0.0012
Expected return 11.00% 7.00% 9.0%
Variance 0.0205 0.0067 0.0010
Standard Deviation 14.31% 8.16% 3.08%
Portfolios
The variance of the rate of return on the two risky assets
portfolio is
BS S S B B
2
S S
2
B B
2
P
) )(w 2(w ) (w ) (w + + =
where
BS
is the correlation coefficient between the returns
on the stock and bond funds.
Rate of Return
Scenario Stock fund Bond fund Portfolio squared deviation
Recession -7% 17% 5.0% 0.0016
Normal 12% 7% 9.5% 0.0000
Boom 28% -3% 12.5% 0.0012
Expected return 11.00% 7.00% 9.0%
Variance 0.0205 0.0067 0.0010
Standard Deviation 14.31% 8.16% 3.08%
Portfolios
Observe the decrease in risk that diversification offers.
An equally weighted portfolio (50% in stocks and 50%
in bonds) has less risk than either stocks or bonds held
in isolation.
Portfolo Risk and Return Combinations
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Portfolio Risk (standard deviation)
P
o
r
t
f
o
l
i
o
R
e
t
u
r
n
% in stocks Risk Return
0% 8.2% 7.0%
5% 7.0% 7.2%
10% 5.9% 7.4%
15% 4.8% 7.6%
20% 3.7% 7.8%
25% 2.6% 8.0%
30% 1.4% 8.2%
35% 0.4% 8.4%
40% 0.9% 8.6%
45% 2.0% 8.8%
50.00% 3.08% 9.00%
55% 4.2% 9.2%
60% 5.3% 9.4%
65% 6.4% 9.6%
70% 7.6% 9.8%
75% 8.7% 10.0%
80% 9.8% 10.2%
85% 10.9% 10.4%
90% 12.1% 10.6%
95% 13.2% 10.8%
100% 14.3% 11.0%
10.4 The Efficient Set for Two
Assets
We can consider other
portfolio weights besides
50% in stocks and 50% in
bonds
100%
bonds
100%
stocks
Portfolo Risk and Return Combinations
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Portfolio Risk (standard deviation)
P
o
r
t
f
o
l
i
o
R
e
t
u
r
n
% in stocks Risk Return
0% 8.2% 7.0%
5% 7.0% 7.2%
10% 5.9% 7.4%
15% 4.8% 7.6%
20% 3.7% 7.8%
25% 2.6% 8.0%
30% 1.4% 8.2%
35% 0.4% 8.4%
40% 0.9% 8.6%
45% 2.0% 8.8%
50% 3.1% 9.0%
55% 4.2% 9.2%
60% 5.3% 9.4%
65% 6.4% 9.6%
70% 7.6% 9.8%
75% 8.7% 10.0%
80% 9.8% 10.2%
85% 10.9% 10.4%
90% 12.1% 10.6%
95% 13.2% 10.8%
100% 14.3% 11.0%
The Efficient Set for Two Assets
100%
stocks
100%
bonds
Note that some portfolios are
better than others. They have
higher returns for the same level of
risk or less.
Portfolios with Various Correlations
100%
bonds
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
100%
stocks
= 0.2
= 1.0
= -1.0
Relationship depends on correlation coefficient
-1.0 < < +1.0
If = +1.0, no risk reduction is possible
If = 1.0, complete risk reduction is possible
10.5 The Efficient Set for Many Securities
Consider a world with many risky assets; we can still
identify the opportunity set of risk-return combinations
of various portfolios.
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
P
Individual Assets
The Efficient Set for Many Securities
The section of the opportunity set above the minimum
variance portfolio is the efficient frontier.
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
P
minimum
variance
portfolio
Individual Assets
Diversification and Portfolio Risk
Diversification can substantially reduce the variability
of returns without an equivalent reduction in
expected returns.
This reduction in risk arises because worse than
expected returns from one asset are offset by better
than expected returns from another.
However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot
be diversified away, and that is the systematic
portion.
Portfolio Risk and Number of
Stocks
Nondiversifiable risk;
Systematic Risk;
Market Risk
Diversifiable Risk;
Nonsystematic Risk;
Firm Specific Risk;
Unique Risk
n
o
In a large portfolio the variance terms are effectively
diversified away, but the covariance terms are not.
Portfolio risk
Systematic Risk
Risk factors that affect a large number of assets
Also known as non-diversifiable risk or market risk
Includes such things as changes in GDP, inflation,
interest rates, etc.
Unsystematic (Diversifiable)
Risk
Risk factors that affect a limited number of assets
Also known as unique risk and asset-specific risk
Includes such things as labor strikes, part
shortages, etc.
The risk that can be eliminated by combining
assets into a portfolio
If we hold only one asset, or assets in the same
industry, then we are exposing ourselves to risk
that we could diversify away.
Total Risk
Total risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk
The standard deviation of returns is a measure of
total risk.
For well-diversified portfolios, unsystematic risk is
very small.
Consequently, the total risk for a diversified portfolio
is essentially equivalent to the systematic risk.
Optimal Portfolio with a
Risk-Free Asset
In addition to stocks and bonds, consider a world that
also has risk-free securities like
T-bills.
100%
bonds
100%
stocks
r
f
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
10.7 Riskless Borrowing and Lending
Now investors can allocate their money across the T-
bills and a balanced mutual fund.
100%
bonds
100%
stocks
r
f
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
Balanced
fund
Riskless Borrowing and Lending
With a risk-free asset available and the efficient frontier
identified, we choose the capital allocation line with the
steepest slope.
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
P
r
f
10.8 Market Equilibrium
With the capital allocation line identified, all investors
choose a point along the linesome combination of the
risk-free asset and the market portfolio M. In a world with
homogeneous expectations, M is the same for all investors.
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
P
r
f
M
Market Equilibrium
Where the investor chooses along the Capital
Market Line depends on his risk tolerance. The big
point is that all investors have the same CML.
100%
bonds
100%
stocks
r
f
r
e
t
u
r
n
o
Balanced
fund
Risk When Holding the Market
Portfolio
Researchers have shown that the best measure of
the risk of a security in a large portfolio is the beta
(|)of the security.
Beta measures the responsiveness of a security to
movements in the market portfolio (i.e., systematic
risk).
) (
) (
2
,
M
M i
i
R
R R Cov
o
| =
Estimating | with Regression
S
e
c
u
r
i
t
y
R
e
t
u
r
n
s
Return on
market %
R
i
= o
i
+ |
i
R
m
+ e
i
Slope = |
i
The Formula for Beta
) (
) (
2
,
M
M i
i
R
R R Cov
o
| =
Clearly, your estimate of beta will
depend upon your choice of a proxy
for the market portfolio.
10.9 Relationship between Risk
and Expected Return (CAPM)
Expected Return on the Market:
Expected return on an individual security:
Premium Risk Market + =
F
M
R R
) (
F
M
i F
i
R R R R + =
Market Risk Premium
This applies to individual securities held within well-
diversified portfolios.
Expected Return on a Security
This formula is called the Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):
) (
F
M
i F
i
R R R R + =
Assume |
i
= 0, then the expected return is R
F
.
Assume |
i
= 1, then
M i
R R =
Expected
return on
a security
=
Risk-
free rate
+
Beta of the
security
Market risk
premium
Relationship Between Risk &
Return
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d
r
e
t
u
r
n
|
) (
F
M
i F
i
R R R R + =
F
R
1.0
M
R
Relationship Between Risk &
Return
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d
r
e
t
u
r
n
|
% 3 =
F
R
% 3
1.5
% 5 . 13
5 . 1 =
i
% 10 =
M
R
% 5 . 13 %) 3 % 10 ( 5 . 1 % 3 = + =
i
R
Quick Quiz
How do you compute the expected return and
standard deviation for an individual asset? For a
portfolio?
What is the difference between systematic and
unsystematic risk?
What type of risk is relevant for determining the
expected return?
Consider an asset with a beta of 1.2, a risk-free
rate of 5%, and a market return of 13%.
What is the expected return on the asset?
CAPM
Capital Asset Pricing Model
( )
( )
m
m i
f m f i
R R Cov
R R R R
2
,
o
|
|
=
+ =