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Science & Technology ----

Imperatives for Socio-


Economic Development

Atta-ur-Rahman
Ph.D. (Cambridge), Sc.D.
(Cambridge)
Federal Minister
&
Chairman, Higher Education Commission ,
Government of Pakistan

President, Pakistan Academy of Sciences


Coordinator General, COMSTECH
VISION
Economic development is no longer
dependent on natural resources
(eg.Japan,European countries)
KNOWLEDGE has now become the main
driving force of world economies and
hence the basis of socio-economic
development
INDUSTRIALIZATION is the key to high
GDP growth (through production & export
of high value-added goods (engineering
goods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology,
etc.)
The World Today
❁ Over 6 billion people inhabit the earth, an increase of 140
per cent over the past fifty years
❁ One Fifth of humanity survive on less than one dollar a
day
❁ About 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water
❁ 7.7 million children die before their first birthday
❁ 25% of 4,630 mammal species and 11% of 9,675 bird
species are on the verge of complete extinction
❁ 20-30% population of Sub-Saharan Africa is HIV positive.
The World in Next 50
Years
❁ Population 9.5 Billion by 2050

❁ Fossil Fuel Resources 80% Reduction by 2050

❁ Rain Forests 45% Reduction by 2050

❁ Life Expectancy Closer to 100 years

❁ Urban Population More than 60% globally


Living in a Changing
World-----
the only constant is change
New biology is decoding the blue print of life,
learning to manage the placement and
expression of genes and mobilizing
microorganisms to do our work for the
production of new products

New innovations are altering and expanding


the notions of development.
Living in a Changing
World
Technology is the great divider---
the rich are getting richer and the
poor, poorer

World is inflicted with poverty,


hunger, disease, conflicts, violence,
& economic uncertainty
The Growing Gap
❁ Investment in Health Research
Out of over 1,400 new medicines introduced in
clinical use in last 25 years, only 14 were for
tropical diseases (poor man’s diseases)
Exciting Horizons
Genomics---plant and animal structure

The living cell—cancer, ageing

Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier?

Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!!

Material Sciences (nano-science)

Alternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-Amsterdam


,wind, water, solar)

Robotics, machine intelligence

Dark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holes


NANOTECHNOLOGY
MATERIAL SCIENCES
MOLECULAR MEDICINE
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
SPACE
SCIENCES
GDP OF ISLAMIC WORLD
THE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBER
COUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESS
THAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln)
AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPAN
(USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OUR
HAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLD’S
ENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTER
OF THE WORLDS POPULATION
JAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURAL
RESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIES
(OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRAST
ONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMIC
WORLD!!
Expenditure on Defense,
Health and R & D (Asian OIC Countries)

% of GDP
5 4.1
4
3
2 1.4
1 0.3
0
lth

D
se

ea

&
en

R
H
ef
D

Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
Expenditure on Defense,
Health and R & D (African OIC Countries)
3
3 % of GDP
2.5
2
2

1.5

0.5 0.1

0
Defense Health R&D
Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
Expenditure on Defense,
Health and R & D (Arab OIC Countries)

7.1 % of GDP
8
6
4
2 1.25
0.2
0
lth

D
se

ea

&
en

R
H
ef
D

Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
Strategy for
Economic Development – HE,S&T
Country Population GDP
(Million) (Billion US$)
Knowledge Based Economies
Belgium 10.2 248
Austria 8.1 208
Denmark 5.3 174
Norway 4.4 152
OIC Countries
Pakistan 150 95
Iran 69.2 110
Saudi Arabia 19.6 139
Turkey 65.7 185

Source: Human Development Report 2001


Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan -
Transition from Agriculture to
Knowledge-Based Economies

1960 : Over 50% of GDP contributed by


Agriculture.

2000 : Only 5-10% of GDP contributed by


Agriculture, Over 50% of GDP
contributed by Engineering Goods,
Electronics, etc.

12
Korea: A Direct Correlation Between
Technical Manpower and Exports
1960 1970 1980 1990 2001

Higher Education
Enrollment 5% 8.7% 16% 37.7% 68%

Exports
US$ (Millions) 32 660 17,21 63,212 150,439

10
Last two hundred years: One key lesson:
• It is possible for countries to catch up (eg. East Asian
Tigers, China etc.)

China’s Strategy---the Five Pillars


c) Massive Human Resource Development
d) Highest priority to Science & Technology
e) Promotion of Hi-Tech Industries
f) Emphasis on Value-added Agriculture
g) Self-reliance in Defense Manufacturing

3
21st Century is further characterized by two
main ideas:
Based upon Globalization and the “Death” of Physical
Distance

• Manufacturing can be done anywhere


• Designing can be done anywhere

INVESTMENT WILL FLOW INTO A COUNTRY ONLY IF IT


HAS:
o Manpower with the right skills and productivity
o Infrastructure
o Stable law and order

4
‘In the new century, innovations in science and
technology will be key not only to health of the
environment but to miraculous improvements in the
quality of our lives and advances in the economy….

PRESIDENT OF USA
State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000

“….The
three top priorities of my government are…
EDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..”
Tony Blair
Policy Announcement 2000
Impact of just one institution----MIT
MIT graduates and faculty have founded
4000 companies
Employ: 1.1 million people
Annual Sales: $232 billion
GDP contribution: $116 billion
Collectively these companies are the 24th
largest economy in the World!
 Requirements for sustained
equitable development
• Human capital manifested in knowledge and
skills
• Innovation and entrepreneurship
• Macro-economic stability
• Strong public institutions

2
Imperatives for Socio-Economic
Development
Central Role of Higher
Linkages Between Applied Research
Education/ & Industrial Development
Technology Development Govt.Facilitating Policies
In National Plans--
VISION!!!!
Socio-Economic
Development

Budgetary Allocations Quality /Relevance


(Min.2% of GNP)- Of Education/Research
The-catch-up game! STANDARDS!!
Global plantings of biotech crops
increased by 12 percent in 2002

70 Global Area of GM Crops
60 58.7
Million Hectares

50 52.6
40 44.2
39.9
30
27.8
20

10 11
1.7
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri­biotech Applications

Products on the market
25
World Engineering Sector

World
Engineering Goods Markets, 2004

US$ (B)
Electronics / Home Appliances / Components 1,500

Pharmaceutical / chemicals 630


Automotive Industry 600
Contract Manufacturing / Outsourcing 186
Ceramics 83
Surgical /Electro Medical Instruments 30
Fan Industry 2.6

63% of world trade is in manufactured goods, and electronics has


major share of it.

39
WORLD ELECTRONICS:
Shift in Markets / Production by Region & Sector
World Markets:
• 2004: US$ 1500 b; (~90% in N. Amer, EU, Japan)
• 2006-07: US$ 1900 b: Their share will fall to ~70%

• Major Share: Consumer Electronics, Computers, Telecoms.

• SHIFT TO CHINA … ~22% of world production in 2004

Major Opportunities:
• Contract Manufacturing: US$ 186 b (2004), US$ 500 b (2010).
• ICTs: ~US$ 130B worldwide
• Electronics / Chip Design : US$ 90 b in 2004
• Software development :US$ 1300 by 2006
• Electronics Services ( call centres, digital archiving)
41
Biologicals in Development
369 371
350
In development
284
Approved
234

143
132
85
80 75
65
40
16 22 31
12

1989 91 93 95 96 98 00 02

Source: PhRMA,
Source: European Commission

Biotech
20%

Conventi
onal
80%

Medicines Market 2004-5


Source: European Commission

Medicines in 2020

Biotech
50%

Conven
tional
50%
Med. BT Industry
• 260 mn helped worldwide
• 125 drugs / vac approved
by FDA
• 350 drugs in clinical trials
Pakistan---A Promising Program
S&T Budget increased 6000%!!!

Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!!

Full support from President of Pakistan

A real beginning after 50 years of lip service


Strategy
Enhancing GDP: S&T Integrated into National
Development Strategy

Agriculture
– Diversification::(spices,nuts,medicinal/aromatic plants,oil-
producing plants,tea,fruits)

– Value Addition(agro-food industry,silk production,health


foods,preserved fruits etc.)

Industry
– Diversification – Shipping, Automobile Manufacture, Engineering
Goods, Chemicals/ Pharmaceuticals, Household Appliances,
Transportation Equipment, Telecommunication Equipment etc.

Services
– Banking, Transportation, Communication, Tourism
Overarching Approach
Simultaneous Bi-Modal Approach
Required
– Bottom-Up
Basic Health, Primary Education, Water ….
– Top-Down
Higher Education
Technology Development
Industrial Linkages
S&T PROGRAMMES

Basic Sciences (physics, maths,


chemistry, biology)
Applied Sciences (Engineering,
Information Technology, Biotechnology,
Material Sciences, Energy etc.)
Entrepreneurship/Innovation
Industrial Parks/Technology Incubators
HEC Plan of Action
ACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCE

Faculty Development
Infrastructure (Free Access to Literature
Free Access to Sophisticated Instruments,
Technology Assisted Learning)
Focused Support in Key Areas
Linkages to the Economy
Quality Assurance
Action Plan (Continued)
Focused Support in Key Areas
– Industrial Relevance
– Agriculture, Engineering, IT, Bio-tech, Basic
Sciences, Social Sciences / Economics /
Humanities, Nursing
– Strengthening of Centers of Excellence
Linkages to the Economy
– Developing the Culture of Innovation
– Steering Committee for Univ-Industry
Linkages
400 Cities on
2002 China

Going to 600
Optical Fibre – up
Afghanistan

cities and Towns


from 40, two years
in the next 12
SDH/PDH
(525/622 Mb/s)

ago backbone being

Iran
months upgraded to
DWDM
10 Gb/s
India

822 cities on the Internet


August 14, 2000
29 Cities
FASTEST INTERNET SPREAD!!

Oct 2003:
1600 locations
97% Population Access to
the Internet
97% of the
population
UNCTAD
report 2003
—>35%
ahead of
regional
countries!!
UNCTAD Report 2003
Information & Communications Technology development
Index
Connectivity Access Policy ICT Diffusion

1.2 1.2

1 1

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0 0
America United Kingdom Japan Korea Malaysia Pakistan India Bangladesh
Bandwidth Available
August 2000: 32 Mb/s Mar 2002: 265 Mb/s
Oct 2003: 600 Mb/s

Operative Data bandwidth

300
250
200
150 Operative Data bandwidth
Mb/s

100
today
50
-
Start
point
Ja 7

Ja 9

Ja 1
Ja 6

Ja 8

Ja 0
9

1
6

2
l-9

l-9
l-9

l-0

l-0
l-9

n-9

n-0
n-9

n-9

n-9

n-0

n-0
Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju
Ju
Ja
Plummeting costs….
June 2000: US$ 87,000/E1 August 2001: US$ 6,000
October 2004 : US$ 3,800
Aiming for US$ 2,500/2 Mb/s IP!
Cost /E1
Start
100,000 point

80,000 Today
60,000
US $

Cost /E1
40,000
20,000
-
00

1
0

1
0
0

1
-0
-0
0

0
-0

-0

-0
l-
y-

y-
n
p

v
r

r
Ju
Ma

Ma
Ma

Ja

Ma
Se

No
Internet user growth
June 2000: 130,000 Oct 2004: 6,800,000

Internet users Actual users


more than 6
1,000,000 Million!
800,000
Dial up
600,000
Internet users
400,000
200,000 Start
- point
Today
Ja 5

Ja 6
97

Ja 8
99

Ja 0

Ja 1
02
-9

0
n-

n-

n-

n-
n-

n-

n-
n
Ja

Ja

Ja
Cellular explosion

Jan 2001: 225,000 Oct 2004: 3, 550,000

Multiplied 500% in the


1,400,000
Cellular Users

last 18 months as
1,200,000
Cellular Users
Cellular Users

1,000,000

compared to the whole of


800,000
600,000
Start point

the last 11 years


400,000 Today
200,000
CP
- P
Jan-95

Jan-02
Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01
Paksat 1

Ku Band

C-Band
PAKSAT 1 –A major opportunity
PAKSAT 1

A MAJOR COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE


WITH 34 TRANSPONDERS

CAPABLE OF CARRYING 250 TV


CHANNELS!!( 4 New TV Channels for
Education!)

BACKBONE FOR PERN (Pakistan


Educational Researh Network)
INCENTIVES TO
SCIENTISTS/ACADEMICS
RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCE
(National Ranking System Introduced)

TENURE TRACK SYSTEM (salaries 4 times that


of government ministers !)

MASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto Usd


100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per
international linkage program)

50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX


Faculty Development
Mechanism
Research Grant Program
Technological Infrastructure Enhancement
Laboratories Improvement
Access to Information
Support for Research Activities
Post-Doctoral Fellowships
Qualification Improvement Opportunities
Targeted support of Disadvantaged University’s faculty
Ph.D. Student Support
Teacher Training
Linkages to Industry
Faculty Development
Develop a strong base of Ph.D. level
highly qualified faculty

Indigenous Scholarship Program (200 to


1500/yr.)
Foreign Faculty Hiring---reversing the brain
drain! (249 have returned---others coming!)
Foreign Ph.D. Scholarship Program (sending
15,000 students for Ph.D. level training
Contractual “tenure track” system---international
assessment
Creating the Environment!
Free access to 17,000 full text
international journals

Free access to sophisticated
instrumentation
Centralized instrumentation facilities
Availability of trained technicians
Scholarships to students---admissions on
merit and merit alone!
PERN ---Applications

Digital Library – Access to Information


Virtual University
Satellite Internet Delivery
Remote Lecture Program
University Information Management
System
Results
44% Increase in ISI abstracted
publications----rate of increase highest in
Islamic world
Young men and women have started
opting to adopt careers in S&T subjects as
first choice
Landscape of Universities has begun to
change
Keys to Success

Courage to dream great dreams — and hard


work/tenacity to transform them in to reality
Identifying and grooming the brightest
manpower ---merit based system
Focusing on cutting edge technologies in
market oriented disciplines
Moving fast! but--- sense of urgency must be
combined with striving for perfection
Optimism ---Taking failures as challenges
Focus----Focus-----Focus !!
Immediate Actions by International
Community
1) Promote Centers of Excellence in
Developing Countries
2) Promote an International Linkage
Program ---linking institutions in
developing countries with those in the
West----80:20 contributions!!
3) Set aside significant portion of
Development Assistance for a massive
scholarship program
Immediate Actions by International
Community (contd)
Provide Access to International Journals/Data
Bases as part of Developmental assistance (or
as policy eg.HINARI)
Promote Distance Learning
Promote free access to international
lectures/lecture materials ( MIT “Open
Courseware” ) to be replicated
Subsidize publishers for selling cheap text books
in developing countries
International Comments
Editorial in Nature ----29th January 2004:

“Rahman has convinced Musharraf ……… and a deluge of


money and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Science
and Technology’s annual budget has increased 60 fold
compared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to more
than double their earnings if they publish more in peer-
reviewed journals; funds have been released for many more
Ph.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well under
way for a free digital library for all educational institutions;
there is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work in
Pakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank you