1 bio-era

One WorldOne Health: An Economic Perspective

Beyond Zoonoses: The Threat of Emerging Diseases to Human Security and Conservation, and the Implications for Public Policy James Newcomb Bio Economic Research Associates (bio era) November 15, 2004 Bangkok, Thailand
2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

2 bio-era

Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases

$50bn

$40bn

SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50bn

Estimated Cost

$30bn

Foot & Mouth UK $2530bn

$20bn
Classical Swine Fever, Netherlands $2.3bn

$10bn

BSE UK, $10-13bn

Foot & Mouth Taiwan, $5-8bn

BSE Japan $1.5bn

HPAI, Italy $400m

Avian Flu Asia, $510bn BSE U.S., $3.5bn

Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m

BSE Canada $1.5bn Avian Flu, NL $500m

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004 2005

2006

Figures are estimates and are presented as relative size.

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

3 bio-era

Livestock Disease Economics

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

4 bio-era

Livestock Disease Risks: Widening Concerns

Recent animal disease outbreaks have affected one-third of global meat exports (UN/FAO) Economic impacts of major livestock disease outbreaks in the past 10 years exceed $80 billion Concerns about human health risks of emerging infectious diseases are increasing (SARS, avian flu, Nipah virus) Rapid growth of Asias livestock industries poses new challenges Global trade and travel increase the interconnectedness of livestock producers worldwide Pathogen exchanges with wildlife populations could be significant Bioterrorism aimed at agricultural targets is possible

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

5 bio-era

One WorldOne Health: An Economic Perspective

1. Inevitable Collisions: Projected Increases in Livestock Populations Will Create New Ecosystem Stresses 2. Network Dynamics: Highly Interconnected Systems Are Vulnerable to Epidemics 3. Policy Responses Must Take the Long View

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

6 bio-era

UN Population Projections (Bn)

12

10

8
High variant

Medium variant Low variant Actual

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 20

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Source: United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: 2002 Revision

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

20

50

7 bio-era

Meat Consumption and Income Trends

Log of per capita Consumption of Meat (19711995 avg.)

5
4

Philippines
China Trend

3
2

1
4
Log of per capita GNP (1971-95 avg.)

India 6 7

10

11

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

8 bio-era

World Meat Consumption: 1983-2020

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Developing world Developed world

Million Metric Tons

83

93

19

19

Source: IFPRI, Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution FAO Annual Data. Total meat consumption for 1983 and 1993 are three-year moving averages. 2020 projections come from IFPRIs global model, IMPACT
2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

20

20

9 bio-era

Projected Species Production

160 140 120 Million Metric Tons 100 80 60 40 20

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2018

2021

1961

1967

1970

1973

1976

1964

2009

Pork
Source: Center for Global Food Issues

Poultry

Beef and Veal

Misc.

Mutton and Lamb

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

2012

2015

2024

10 bio-era

Brazil Chicken Meat Production and Exports: 1964-2004

9 8

Million Metric Tons *RTC

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Production Exports

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

Source: FAOSTAT
2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

20

04

11 bio-era

China Chicken Meat Production and Imports: 1987-2004 12 10

Million Metric Tons *RTC

8
Imports

6 4 2 0
19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03

Production

Source: FAOSTAT
2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

12 bio-era

Thailand Chicken Meat Production and Exports: 1964-2004

1.5

1.3

Million Metric Tons *RTC

1.0 Production Exports 0.5

0.8

0.3

0.0

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01 20

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

Source: FAOSTAT
2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

20

03

13 bio-era

The Global Meat Trade is Highly Concentrated

Source: Center for Global Food Issues

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

14 bio-era

Percent of Global Meat Production Exported

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1977 1995 1997 1999 1973 1975 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1989

1991

Source: Center for Global Food Issues

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

1993

2001

15 bio-era

Network Theory Offers Important New Tools for Analyzing and Managing Disease Risks
Network models (scale-free, small world, urban, etc.) give fundamental new insights into epidemiology Scale-free networks are especially vulnerable, but can be made more robust by focusing control measures at hubs Network theory has significant practical applications in understanding and managing livestock diseases through application of contact tracking to identify hubs

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

16 bio-era

Poisson distribution

Power-law distribution

Exponential Network

Scale-free Network
2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

17 bio-era

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

18 bio-era

Emerging Infectious Diseases: What Are the Linkages Among Wildlife, Domestic Animals and Humans?
Fundamental forces are driving new infection disease threats for livestock Avian influenza poses especially large potential risks Emerging diseases are causing significant economic disruptions

Source: Daszak, Cunningham, and Hyatt, Science, January 2000

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

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2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

20 bio-era

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

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2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

22 bio-era

Control and Mitigation Methods Are Evolving Quickly

Mass culling has been effective, but at very high cost Trade embargoes are crude tools to control disease New monitoring and detection systems are being put in place Vaccination is now being used, but evolutionary implications are unknown Rapid testing technologies have been developed Changes in livestock practices are being explored

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

23 bio-era

Institutional Responses to Avian Flu: Recommendations of OIE/CDC/WHO

Surveillance and separation systems to limit contact between wild birds and poultry Strategies to ensure the purity of drinking water supplies for poultry Tight control measures over livestock movement in affected areas Bird-proofing of poultry sheds to prevent contact between wild birds, especially migrating waterfowl, and poultry Protection for workers during culling operations including protective clothing and vaccinations Financial support for losses incurred by farmers culling their flocks Endorsement of vaccination strategies as complement to culling

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

24 bio-era

Sustainable Long-Term Solutions May Require Innovative Science and Policy

Breed livestock for disease resistance Produce animal vaccines in feed grains Implement advanced monitoring and detection systems for livestock Develop global wildlife health surveillance network

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

25 bio-era

One WorldOne Health

2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates