Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Sl no Emerging markets - global Pvt Cap flows - Nett Private Direct Inv - Nett Private Portfolio flows Other Pvt. Capital flows Official flows - Nett Change in Reserves Emerging Asia Pvt Cap flows Nett Private Direct Inv Nett Private Portfolio flows Other Pvt Capital flows 0.2 70.9 54.1 (124.9) 20.6 50.5 (60.1) 30.2 64.0 99.6 (12.7) (22.9) 97.9 94.0 (13.1) 17.0 69.0 96.0 (8.4) (18.5) 75.4 177.3 60.7 (162.6) 13.0 (98.4) 77.3 150.6 (91.7) 18.4 (4.3) (200.6) 238.5 255.9 3.2 (20.6) (151.8) (592.5) 211.4 263.3 (31.1) (20.8) (238.7) (666.3) 182.2 246.1 (4.6) (59.2) (174.1) e 1999 2002 2005 2006 2007
1.6
(84.8)
3.0
(154.4)
(11.7)
(286.6)
(8.4)
(344.8)
(12.0)
(331.4)
A Brief Introduction
Sep 2010
Introduction to IFM
The environment The nature of international Fin Mgt International Monetary system Determination of exchange rates Balance of Payments Interest parity international fisher effect
UNIT II
Why IFM
1.
2.
Why IFM
a. a. b. c. d. e. Inter-dependent World (Resources are scattered Goods/Lab/Capital) Inter-connected world : Tech improvements (Trpt, Com, Web) Boundary-less Fin- Flows @ the speed of nanoseconds now. For each co some interest abroad : supplier, cust or competitor Implications dramatic : Even US Cos had to earn new lessons JP Morgan : We are a Global co with an important American Biz
3.
4.
- GDP gr - GDP Gr
- 7.5% - 2.5%
2.
1991 : Watershed yr For India. Liberalization and Globalization a. Easing of Quantitative Restrictions (Trade, Labor & Capital) b. Lowering of Import Duties c. Foreign Investments on the rise controls lowered d. Current A/c convertibility e. Trend towards softening of Cap a/c convertibility provisos IFM course will deal with the Treasurers more than the controllers fn Treasury Function Acquisition and allocation of Fin resources To maximize rewards and Minimize costs Consistent with the level of fin risk acceptable to the firm Basically the Investment and Financing roles vs Operational role
3.
4.
Political risk
Market imperfections
International expanded Opportunity MNCs Cost-Benefit Evaluation - Domestic Firms versus set
The Setting
Empirical data on Global Money / Trade flows
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1961 1971 Globe 1981 Advanced 1991 Asia 2001 Others 2005
Imports I/flows
O/flows
HRD Min
Commerce Ministry
Policy
Supporti ve
Supportive
Selective ly FDI : Supportive Restricti FII : Selective ve restrictions FDI : Sectoral caps FII : Selective Restrictions like PN
Restrictive
Restri ctions
Emigrati on laws
Quotas Tariffs
Selective permission
D. Tactical Issues
1. Licensing involves lower risks but inflexible & host dependent 2. Subsidiary is preferred to JV. JVs over Licensing
Setbacks
East Asian crisis 97-98
Doubts about capital a/c convertibility started surfacing Benefits of unfettered capital flows were overestimated and The damage an enormous outflow of S/T money can cause has been underestimated Consensus on addl. safeguards and checks but not much on the form it needs to take By 99 some semblance of recovery started & all forgotten soon Financial meltdown 2008 Sub prime the ostensible cause. Toxic assets (CDS s etc.) were the other manifestation Real causes were consumption and savings imbalances between the advanced economies and the Asian tigers
International Money
International International International Theories of Financial Markets Financial Institutions Parity Conditions Financial Markets Behaviour
Money
Markets
Institutions / Players
Instruments
International Money
Exchange rates
IM
IFI
Forward Market
IM
IFI
Futures
ADRs
Swaps
IFB - framework
A. Fin environment Overview International Monetary system International FIs and Dev Banks BOPs B. Forex Markets Derivatives Forex Currency futures and options Forex markets Forex Rate theories C. Forex exposure mgt Mgt of Forex risk Translation exposure and Transaction exposure D. Fin mgt of MNC firm FDI WACC and Cap structure of an MNC MNC Capital budgeting / Cash Mgt / Taxation Country Risk Mgt E. Financing foreign operations Eurocurrency markets Interest rate and currency swaps Depository receipts
Workings : If Exchange Rate is (say) 4.90 $ / unit of Either the US exporter can get 4 or $ 19.60 (since Rate is 4.9) now or Accept 1 ounce gold : Cost of Gold - shipping cost = $ (20 - 0.20) = $ 19.80 This is called the Gold Import Point Thus, if the Exch rate moves < 4.95$ , US Exporter would rather accept Gold into US than 4
2. Gold being scarce, Gold volume could not grow fast enough to cope with Eco Gr
3. Gold reserves were with countries politically sensitive (eg. Russia, South Africa)
4. Nations had to subordinate their National Eco goals to the dictates of Global trade.
5. This proved to be unrealistic, given the political costs of such a presumption Many developing countries faced External trade imbalances during this time Instead of having the courage to face unemployment at home, countries resorted to Tariffs This affected the international trade
6. US $ devalued to 35/ounce
7. US introduced modified Gold std. US to trade gold with only central banks not with Pvt citizens
8. Inter war Yrs saw Half-hearted attempts @ Gold std that failed
9. Great depression and stock market crash of 1929 also were contributory
Bretton woods.
1. Creation of 2 new institutions IMF and world bank 2. IMF for addressing balance of payments problems. 3. World bank to address for post war reconstruction and General Eco Development 4. US $ and became the reserve currencies 5. Each member would establish a par value with the reserve currency 6. And maintain it within 1% of the par value. intervene else. Ie Fixed peg with 7. US $ was pegged to 35 $/ oz Gold. US agreed to exchange $ for gold/ vice versa 8. Member could change par value with Fund approval /fundamental disequilibrium
Floating rates
System causes uncertainty. Promotes speculation instead of trade Flexi rate system also encourages speculation, once upper band was reached. However in fixed, bets were one-way with no loss since parity to be restored Conclusion : Fixed rate system suffered from all that flexible systems had &more
Currency Forecasting
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
PURCHASING POWER PARITY THE FISHER EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY THE R/SHIP BETWEEN FORWARD AND FUTURE SPOT RATE
CURRENCY FORECASTING
Infla Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000
Ex Rate Determination
20.0% Items Burger Vol 100 2008 100 2009 2008 10,000 2009 2008 2
Ex Rate Determination
20.0% Items Burger Vol 100 2008 100 2009 120 2008 10,000 2009 12,000 2008 2
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 2009 12,000 12,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 2009 220 220
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 2009 220 220 440
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Exch rate by Price comparison Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 50.00 2009 220 220 440 54.55
20.0%
Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Exch rate by Price comparison Exch rate by Formula ( Infl Diff Abs) Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0%
2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 2009 220 220 440
50.00
54.55
1.20/1.10
1.091
50.00
54.55
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Exch rate by Price comparison Exch rate by Formula ( Infl Diff Abs) Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 50.00 2009 220 220 440 54.55
1.20/1.10
1.091
50.00
54.55
1.20/1.10
1.091
45.00
49.09
1.
2.
PART I.
I.
B. Theoretical basis:
Limitations
1. Tariffs, Quotas, Transportation costs, Other trade barriers 2. Non-traded goods & Services (like Beauticians) excluded
PPP
e1 e0
1 i
f
1 ih
1 1
et 1 ih i f e0
B. If Real exchange rates unchanged, - Competitive positions of Domestic & foreign firms are unaffected.
r = a + i
rh
rf = ih - if
3. According to the FE, - Countries with higher inflation rates have higher interest rates.
D.
e1
(1 rh ) e0 1 (1 r f )
1
IFE States that the spot rate adjusts to the Intt. rate Diff. between two countries
3 2 B 1 0 1 2 3 3 Arbitrage inflow A
Arbitrage outflow
Interest parity
Arbitrage outflow 1.+ve int rate diff > FD (point A) 2..FP > -ve interest rate diff (point .A) Arbitrage inflow 1.FD > + ve intrest rate diff (point B) 2.-ve intrest rate diff > FP (point B)
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4 453.3
Cumulative
4,897.8
22.50 23.25
Forward Premium - DM
Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield %
3.33%
10.20% 11.00% 0.80%
100,000.0 10.2%
23.3
113,873.3 13.87%
22.50 23.25
Forward Premium - DM
Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield % Return if Invested in INR 11.00%
3.33%
10.20% 11.00% 0.80%
100,000.0 10.2%
23.3
Present Rate
Equivalent rate
Description
Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible Buy DM Investment @ Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield % Return if Invested in INR 12.00%
62
Conversion
22.50 23.25 3.33% 10.20% 12.00% 1.80% Yes 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 23.25 113,873.33 13.87% 112,000.00 12.00% 112,000.00 22.87 4,444.44 No 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 112,000.00 4,444.44 10.20% 12.00% 22.50
Present Rate
Equivalent rate
Description
Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible Buy DM Investment @ Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield % Return if Invested in INR 12.00%
63
Conversion
22.50 23.25 3.33% 10.20% 12.00% 1.80% Yes 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 23.25 113,873.33 13.87% 112,000.00 12.00% 112,000.00 22.87 4,444.44 No 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 112,000.00 4,444.44 10.20% 12.00% 1.63% 22.50
Present Rate
Equivalent rate
Description
Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible Buy DM Investment @ Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield % Return if Invested in INR 12.00%
64
Conversion
22.50 23.25 3.33% 10.20% 12.00% 1.80% Yes 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 23.25 113,873.33 13.87% 112,000.00 12.00% 112,000.00 22.87 4,444.44 No 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 112,000.00 4,444.44 22.50 22.87 1.63% 10.20% 12.00% 1.63%
Present Rate
Equivalent rate
Description
Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible Buy DM Investment @ Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield % Return if Invested in INR 12.00%
65
Conversion
22.50 23.25 3.33% 10.20% 12.00% 1.80% Yes 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 23.25 113,873.33 13.87% 112,000.00 12.00% 112,000.00 22.87 4,444.44 No 100,000.00 10.20% 453.33 4,897.78 112,000.00 4,444.44 22.50 22.87 1.63% 10.20% 12.00% 1.63%
i. Interest rate differential does not equal the forward premium or discount.
ii. Funds will move to a country with a more attractive overall yield.
Summary: Interest Rate Parity states : 1. Higher intt rates on a currency offset by Forward Discount 2. Lower interest rates are offset by forward premiums
IFE
Implications of IFE - Currency with lower Intt rate is Expd to appreciate ; - Proportionately - Relative to one with a higher rate. - Due to Arbitrage
e1
(1 rh ) e0 1 (1 r f )
1
IFE States that the spot rate adjusts to the Intt. rate Diff. between two countries
rh rf
e1 e0 e0
et
(1 rh ) eo t (1 r f )
t
IFE States that the spot rate adjusts to the Intt. rate Diff. between two countries
E(e)
IFE PPP
(i$ -i Rs)
FE RPPP
(E1 - E0 ) E0
$ - Rs
Following factors have made IFM an indispensable tool esp for Global corps
A. Growth in internationals savings and reserves B. An ever expanding and an elaborate network of global banks and FIs C. Various forms of Fin instruments, guarantees and insurance products D. Innovative Risk mgt products and processes E. Emergence of sophisticated payments systems F. Efficient mechanisms for dealing with S/Term imbalances
For an IF Manager the following are the variety of choices before them
Funding techniques Investment Vehicles Risk Mgt products Speculative opportunities based on risk-reward profiles
Hence, for those willing to learn the complexities, there are opportunities for others, there is a minefield
C. MNC faces myriad of Complexities and challenges wrt ; Multiple Taxation laws Multiple currencies Multiple and differential policy frameworks Multiple political Systems Agency problem. :
Stands for conflict of goals between MNC shareholders and managers of the subsidiaries.
D. But an MNC can make the same diversity & complexity work in its favor eg. Geo Diversification
as
Ext enviornment
Means
Operational Import & Export Licensing Franchising Mgt Contact Turnkey FDI Portfolio Invt
Environment challenges
Speed of Product Changes Optimum Production site No of customers Amount bought by each customer Homogeneity of customers Local Vs International competitors Cost of moving products Unique capabilities of competitors
35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 MNC Ret Local Ret MNC WACC Local WACC
IFM as a Discipline
A.
1. 2. 3. 4.
Till early 90s, IFM discipline was not much in demand as a specialization Things have changed since then. Indias share of Total Global trade may not be significant and is in fact declining While tariff barriers and quotas are being dismantled. Still they are high Yet, it is nave to conclude from above that the Developments in Intt. Fin are of little interest to us. Why 1. To maintain tempo of eco growth, India needs substantial FDI to augment domestic savings 2. Tech up gradation needs continuing import of technology 3. Indian export initiatives need L/T financing to buyers abroad 4. Indian IT sector is beginning to venture abroad. For both organic/ Inorganic gr. Needs Finance 5. Policy stance is in favor of more openness and greater competition
B.
Some Cos run an active treasury fn that leverages imperfections in the Fin Mkts to generate purely Fin gains from Mgt of Fin Assets/Liabilities
Others have a reactive finance function, focussing only on core Ops Former is a risky strategy. Eg. Forex losses by many Corps in 2008 The latter is a conservative approach. The complexity of IFB is s/that a wide variety of Instruments Financing options Investment Vehicles and Risk Mgt options Do exist for both styles of Mgt Treasurer in an MNC is concerned with purely Ops decisions like Sales/ Purchase, due to Exch/ Intt rate risks involved. Not in Non-MNC
2. 21st century is marked by even greater changes in the environment WTO deadlines wrt removal of trade barriers likely to lead to greater competition Cap A/C convertibility likely in phases may lead Cap flow challenges Ceilings on FII and FDI Investments being revised upwards Eg INR Appreciated from 2004 - 07, squeezing the margins of exporters To sum up, integration of India with Global Eco is likely to accelerate Hence, exposure for Indian Cos to global Fin Mkts is likely to increase
Fin Mgrs to do
1. To Be updated with environmental changes Exch / Intt rates, fiscal, monetary developments, Industrial, tax, Exim policies, Fin mkt trends New fin instruments, their Risk-reward implications 2. Understand /analyze complex r/ships between environ Var & Corp Fin Eg Stock market crash on credit conditions in intl markets Implications on our global funding prospects of default by a Dr country 3. Adoption of Fin fn to Changes in firms own strategic postures - Internal Changes in product market mix New M&A opportunity 4. To address the consequences of past decisions A major take over decision that has gone awry 5. To leverage opportunities offered by the environment
Evaluate
A. Distinct features of International Finance
Forex Risk : Esp due to managed float policy by all nations. Volatility can be mercurial Exch rates among even major currencies like $, Yen etc. fluctuate wildly Political risk : ranges from unforeseen policy actions to terrorist threats (Enron- India) Expanded opportunity sets Market imperfections Laws, tax systems, biz , cultural practice diff etc. B. Evaluation 1. Which of the above provide the maximum net benefit over cost 2. PV of expected future payoffs net of costs discounted at an apt rate
IFB - framework
A. Fin environment Overview International Monetary system International FIs and Dev Banks BOPs B. Forex Markets Derivatives Forex Currency futures and options Forex markets Forex Rate theories C. Forex exposure mgt Mgt of Forex risk Translation exposure and Transaction exposure D. Fin mgt of MNC firm FDI WACC and Cap structure of an MNC MNC Capital budgeting / Cash Mgt / Taxation Country Risk Mgt E. Financing foreign operations Eurocurrency markets Interest rate and currency swaps Depository receipts
Workings : If Exchange Rate is (say) 4.90 $ / unit of Either the US exporter can get 4 or $ 19.60 (since Rate is 4.9) now or Accept 1 ounce gold : Cost of Gold - shipping cost = $ (20 - 0.20) = $ 19.80 This is called the Gold Import Point Thus, if the Exch rate moves < 4.95$ , US Exporter would rather accept Gold into US than 4
2. Gold being scarce, Gold volume could not grow fast enough to cope with Eco Gr
3. Gold reserves were with countries politically sensitive (eg. Russia, South Africa)
4. Nations had to subordinate their National Eco goals to the dictates of Global trade.
5. This proved to be unrealistic, given the political costs of such a presumption Many developing countries faced External trade imbalances during this time Instead of having the courage to face unemployment at home, countries resorted to Tariffs This affected the international trade
6. US $ devalued to 35/ounce
7. US introduced modified Gold std. US to trade gold with only central banks not with Pvt citizens
8. Inter war Yrs saw Half-hearted attempts @ Gold std that failed
9. Great depression and stock market crash of 1929 also were contributory
Bretton woods.
1. Creation of 2 new institutions IMF and world bank 2. IMF for addressing balance of payments problems. 3. World bank to address for post war reconstruction and General Eco Development 4. US $ and became the reserve currencies 5. Each member would establish a par value with the reserve currency 6. And maintain it within 1% of the par value. intervene else. Ie Fixed peg with 7. US $ was pegged to 35 $/ oz Gold. US agreed to exchange $ for gold/ vice versa 8. Member could change par value with Fund approval /fundamental disequilibrium
Smithsonian Agreement
1. 1971 : Post Vietnam war, Dollar started weakening and
7. This band was more than permitted under earlier dispensation (1%)
8. Had the flexibility of a floating system while retaining the discipline of fixed rates
Floating rates
System causes uncertainty. Promotes speculation instead of trade Flexi rate system also encourages speculation, once upper band was reached. However in fixed, bets were one-way with no loss since parity to be restored Conclusion : Fixed rate system suffered from all that flexible systems had &more
FF
X
1.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
BF
X
0.7
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
SF
0.5
X
0.8
1.3
2.3
3.3
SK
0.3
0.4
X
0.6
1.8
2.8
DM
0.3
0.3
0.4
X
0.6
1.8
DG
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
Political risk
Market imperfections
Imports I/flows
O/flows
HRD Min
Commerce Ministry
Policy
Supporti ve
Supportive
Selective ly FDI : Supportive Restricti FII : Selective ve restrictions FDI : Sectoral caps FII : Selective Restrictions like PN
Restrictive
Restri ctions
Emigrati on laws
Quotas Tariffs
Selective permission
World Bank
1. Objectives
Assist the rehabilitation of economies disrupted by war Promote flow of Foreign pvt capital thru guarantees, provide Own funds Promote L/T Balanced growth of Global trade and BOP equilibrium thru LT Invt (FDI) flows To make the transition to peacetime from war time smoother
3.
Composition
Membership is a function of countrys eco might G7 have nearly 45% share and voting rights (USA 17%) Change in Capital base/AOA need 85% votes (USA veto) All other matters incl loan approvals need simple majority Exec Board is in Washington DC By and large Coop in spirit. Voting has been rare.
2.
Affiliates
IBRD, IDA
World Bank
4. How Does it assist
Bank uses its Fin resources, Knowledge Base and Network Emphasizes on Social (People) development (Health, Education etc.) and inclusion Environment protection Encouraging Private sector Invts/ initiatives Goading Govts towards reform and efficient delivery of public services Institution building and Governance
5. 6.
Affiliates
IBRD, IDA
To Banks, Pension funds, Insurance cos, other Corporations Very conservatively managed. No defaults of either IBRD / IDA loans so far
7. Reforms Program
The tougher part of IBRD assistance. Calls for politically harsh decisions Poor donot suffer. Eg. Conditions include safety nets. L/T-Reforms Help poor Covenants for Adv countries too : Eg. Efforts to reduce US deficits
IBRD
1. Loans are to Govt for Infra projects generally (multiplier effect) 2. Members : 151 3. Sources : Subscription, Cap mkt borrowings, Retained earnings 4. Focus 5. Tenors : Emerging economies : Longer (15 = 5 +10)
6. Nature of Assistance : Loans / Guarantees for Pvt sector loans 7. Obligations of assisted Governments
Development of Industrial zones that facilitate free trade Polices that Promote of exports and Forex earnings Provision of Backward Linkages Improving institutions that promote trade facilitative zones Emphasis on Environmental / Womens empowerment / child labor issues
IDA
1. Aids to Developing countries (LDCs) for Infra, typically 2. Members : 137
6. Nature of Assistance : Cheaper Loans 7. Admin : Same staff as IBRD. Focus Countries - different
IFC
1. Target :Private sector in developing countries
2. Members : 133
5. Nature of Assistance Providing Risk capital to Tgts : Equity and LT loans Encouraging local Cap mkts : Eg U/writing Providing Tech and Fin assistance
6. Assistance covers a spectrum of industries
IMF
1. Commences operations in 1947 2. Membership is 182 countries (Initial m/ship 39) 3. Total Member quotas - $ 300 Billion (Member shares are a constant)
4. Participation voluntary
5. Currency unit - SDR ( = $ 1.3703)
6. Members came together to enjoy adv of a stable system of exch rates 7. Lends to Support Exch rate stabilization, s/to members u/taking Structural adj 8. Has withstood the test of time & facilitated increased Vol of Global Trade/Invt
IMF 1. Roles
Exchange rate stability, Global trade promotion, Payment facilitation
2. Activity
ER Surveillance (Bilateral and multilateral), Tech assistance, Fin assistance
For S/T BOP deficits of a cyclical nature Tenor upto 18 mths. Drawings periodic and conditional cascade of tranche release Purchase of member country currency/sale of another to support its parity Repurchase after 4-5 yrs
B. Extended Arrangements
For Medium Term Structural BOP problems Purchase based support. Repurchase max 10 yrs
Loans not purchases for typically LDCs. Drawals semi annual Designed to address L/T structural imbalances in BOP situation Easier terms. 0.5% Intt. 10 yr Tenor. 1st Semi-annual repayment 5.5 yrs
IDA
Same as for IBRD (Aid instead of loan)
IFC
To promote eco dev in Developing nations by assisting pvt sector Pvt sector / Govt organizations that help Pvt enterprises Loan All developing countries from the poorest to the more advanced 7 - 12 yrs 3 yrs Mkt linked No
Purpose
2 3
4 5 6 7 8
All Developing other than the Poorest 15 - 20 yrs 3 - 5 yrs @ 10% Yes
Assist Small and less developed countries of the region Economic Growth across sectors Poverty reduction Human development Gender Development Environmental Development
2.
Composition
Membership open to Countries in the Asia Pacific Region Two largest share holders US and Japan with 16% each
3.
Evaluations
Country and project evaluation Project effectiveness (Viability, Impact, implementability, sustainability) operational evaluation (project completion evaluation etc)
5.
Finance sources
6. Reforms Program
The tougher part of ADB assistance. Calls for politically harsh decisions Poor donot suffer. Eg. Conditions include safety nets. L/T-Reforms Help poor Covenants for Adv countries too :
Currency Forecasting
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE PURCHASING POWER PARITY THE FISHER EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY THE R/SHIP BETWEEN FORWARD AND FUTURE SPOT RATE CURRENCY FORECASTING
VII.
PART I.
I.
B. Theoretical basis:
5 Parity Conditions Result From these Arbitrage Activities 1. 2. 3. 4. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Relative Purchasing Power Parity International Fisher Effect (IFE) Interest Rate Parity (IRP)
1.
2.
PPP
A.
Price levels adjusted for Exch rates should be equal between countries
20.0% Items Burger Vol 100 2008 100 2009 2008 10,000 2009 2008 2
20.0% Items Burger Vol 100 2008 100 2009 120 2008 10,000 2009 12,000 2008 2
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 2009 12,000 12,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 2009 220 220
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 2009 220 220 440
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Exch rate by Price comparison Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 50.00 2009 220 220 440 54.55
20.0%
Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Exch rate by Price comparison Exch rate by Formula ( Infl Diff Abs) Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0%
2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 2009 220 220 440
50.00
54.55
1.20/1.10
1.091
50.00
54.55
20.0% Items Burger Lee Jeans Total Exch rate by Price comparison Exch rate by Formula ( Infl Diff Abs) Vol 100 10 2008 100 1,000 2009 120 1,200 2008 10,000 10,000 20,000 2009 12,000 12,000 24,000 2008 2 20
10.0% 2009 2.2 22.0 2008 200 200 400 50.00 2009 220 220 440 54.55
1.20/1.10
1.091
50.00
54.55
1.20/1.10
1.091
45.00
49.09
Limitations
1. Tariffs, Quotas, Transportation costs, Other trade barriers 2. Non-traded goods & Services (like Beauticians) excluded
PPP
et e0
i 1
f
ih 1
t t
et 1 ih i f e0
B. If Real exchange rates unchanged, - Competitive positions of Domestic & foreign firms are unaffected.
r = a + i
rh
rf = ih - if
3. According to the FE, - Countries with higher inflation rates have higher interest rates.
D.
et e0 (1 rh ) 1 t e0 (1 r f )
t
IFE States that the spot rate adjusts to the Intt. rate Diff. between two countries
3 2 B 1 0 1 2 3 3 Arbitrage inflow A
Arbitrage outflow
Interest parity
Arbitrage outflow 1.+ve int rate diff > FD (point A) 2..FP > -ve interest rate diff (point .A) Arbitrage inflow 1.FD > + ve intrest rate diff (point B) 2.-ve intrest rate diff > FP (point B)
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4 453.3
Cumulative
4,897.8
22.50 23.25
Forward Premium - DM
Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield %
3.33%
10.20% 11.00% 0.80%
100,000.0 10.2%
23.3
113,873.3 13.87%
22.50 23.25
Forward Premium - DM
Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for INR Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest Cumulative Sell DM fwd and Trfr to INR Yield % Return if Invested in INR 11.00%
3.33%
10.20% 11.00% 0.80%
100,000.0 10.2%
23.3
(1 rh ) e1 1 e0 (1 rf )
1
IFE States that the spot rate adjusts to the Intt. rate Diff. between two countries
(1 + Rf) * (E1/E0)
(E1/E0)
= (1+Rh)
= (1+ Rh) / (1+Rf)
140
et (1 rh ) t e0 (1 rf )
t
IFE States that the spot rate adjusts to the Intt. rate Diff. between two countries
i. Interest rate differential does not equal the forward premium or discount.
ii. Funds will move to a country with a more attractive overall yield.
Summary: Interest Rate Parity states : 1. Higher intt rates on a currency offset by Forward Discount 2. Lower interest rates are offset by forward premiums
IFE
Implications of IFE - Currency with lower Intt rate is Expd to appreciate ; - Proportionately - Relative to one with a higher rate. - Due to Arbitrage
rh rf
e1 e0 e0
E(e)
IFE PPP
(i$ -i Rs)
FE FRPPP
(E1 - E0 ) E0
$ - Rs
Lecture Objectives
BOP approach is the 2nd most utilized theoretical approach in ER The basic approach : Equilibrium ER is found when currency flows match up current and financial account activities. This framework has wide appeal as BOP transaction data is readily available and widely reported. Critics may argue that this theory does not take into account stocks of money or financial assets.
Argues that ER determined by Supply of and demand for a wide variety of financial assets:
INR/$
Equilibrium
D S
45
Qty
Inflation rates: Higher domestic inflation means less demand for local goods (decreased supply of foreign currency) and more demand for foreign goods (increased demand for foreign currency).
Interest rates: Higher domestic (real) interest rates attract investment funds causing a decrease in demand for foreign currency and an increase in supply of foreign currency. Economic growth: Stronger economic growth attracts investment funds causing a decrease in demand for foreign currency and an increase in supply of foreign currency.
Political & economic risk: Higher political or economic risk in the domestic country results in increased demand and reduced supply of foreign currency.
Changes in future expectations: Any improvement in future expectations regarding the domestic currency or economy will decrease the demand for foreign currency and increase the supply of foreign currency. Government intervention: Maintain weak currency to improve export competitiveness.
Forecasting in Practice
Numerous foreign exchange forecasting services exist, many of which are provided by banks and independent consultants.
Some multinational firms have their own in-house forecasting capabilities. Predictions can be based on elaborate econometric models, technical analysis of charts and trends, intuition, and a certain measure of gall.
Technical Approach
Forecasting in Practice
Technical analysts, traditionally referred to as chartists, focus on price and volume data to determine past trends that are expected to continue into the future. The single most important element of technical analysis is that future exchange rates are based on the current exchange rate.
Long-term
Forecasting in Practice
The longer the time horizon of the forecast, the more inaccurate the forecast is likely to be.
Forecasting for L/T must depend on the Eco fundamentals of ER determination, Many of the forecast needs of the firm are short to medium term in their time horizon and can be addressed with less theoretical approaches.
Forecasting in Practice
Then you conclude with your overall prediction based on all of these methods and allocate funds to your trading strategy.
As a whole, forecasters cannot do a better job of forecasting future exchange rates than the forward rate.
The founder of Forbes Magazine once said: You can make more money selling advice than following it.
Balance of Payments
BOP
is a comprehensive record of all eco transactions between residents of a country With the Rest of the World (ROW) Of a given period of time
BOP is a Statistical record of the flow of all Eco transactions In goods , services, Incomes & C/flows (and ch in SDR,Forex Reserves & monetary Gold as well) Between the residents of a country and the rest of the world in a given year. Resident : eco entities that have a closer association with a given territory than another wrt their given eco activity
Balance of Payments
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India
Inflow
O/flow
Net
12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c
15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
166
(1.5) 51.9
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1
167
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
168
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
169
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
170
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1 339.6 291.2 344.9 369.0 72.9 1516.2 2182.1 821.8 1077.9 (665.9)
171
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1 339.6 291.2 344.9 369.0 72.9 1516.2 2182.1 821.8 1077.9 355.3 (1.5) (665.9)
172
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1 339.6 291.2 344.9 369.0 72.9 1516.2 2182.1 821.8 1077.9 355.3 (1.5) 51.9 1485.1 820.5 664.6 (665.9)
173
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1 339.6 291.2 344.9 369.0 72.9 1516.2 2182.1 821.8 1077.9 355.3 (1.5) 51.9 1485.1 820.5 664.6 (1.3) (665.9)
174
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1 339.6 291.2 344.9 369.0 72.9 1516.2 2182.1 821.8 1077.9 355.3 (1.5) 51.9 1485.1 820.5 664.6 (665.9)
(1.3)
175
1.5
Sl/ No Particulars 1 Export of Goods 2 Import of civilian goods 3 Export of Services 4 Import of Services 5 Income Paymens 6 Income Receipts 7 Net Unilateral transfer O/flow 8 Net Current Account 9 Indian Pvt invt overseas 10 Foreign Pvt Invts in India 11 Foreign Official lending to India 12 Indian Official lending abroad 13 Statstical discrepency (+) 14 Net Capital A/c 15 Deficit Till now 16 Actual (deficit) /Surplus 17 Official Reserve Incr / (decr)
Inflow 807.6
O/flow
Net
1473.1 339.6 291.2 344.9 369.0 72.9 1516.2 2182.1 821.8 1077.9 355.3 (1.5) 51.9 1485.1 820.5 664.6 (1.3) (665.9)
176
1.5 (2.8)
BOP in Total
A surplus in the BOP implies that The demand for the countrys currency exceeded the supply and the Govt should allow the currency value to increase or Intervene & accumulate additional Forex reserves in the Official Reserves Account. A deficit in the BOP implies An excess supply of the countrys currency on world markets & The Govt should then either devalue the currency or Expend its official reserves to support its value.
Accounting Principles
1.
Any transaction resulting in a payment to foreigners is entered in the BOP accounts as a debit and is given a negative sign. Any transaction resulting in a receipt from foreigners is entered as a credit and given a positive sign. Current Account records transactions involving exports and imports of goods and services Capital Account records transactions involving the purchase and sale of assets. Double-Entry book keeping: Every international transaction automatically enters twice, once as a credit and once as a debit.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Examples of Transactions
Credit Transactions (+ve): Provision of goods and services to non-residents Income receivable from non-residents A decrease in foreign financial assets An increase in foreign financial liabilities
Debit Transactions (-ve): Purchase of goods & services from non-residents Income payable to non-residents An increase in foreign financial assets A decrease in foreign financial liabilities
Examples of Transactions
An Australian Co exports goods worth US$1 million to the US : Export of goods is credit for the current account. Increase in foreign asset (US$1 million) is debit for capital account. Australian company then coverts US$ into A$ and buys government bonds back in Australia: Decrease in foreign asset is credit for the capital account. Increase in government liability is debit for Official Res a/c Australian individual imports a sports car from Europe: Increase in foreign liabilities is credit for the Capital a/c Import of goods is debit for current account.
A nations balance of payments interacts with nearly all of its key macroeconomic variables.
Interacts means that the BOP affects and is affected by such key macroeconomic factors as: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Exchange rate Interest rates Inflation rates
A countrys BOP can have a significant impact on the level of its exchange rate and vice versa.
The relationship between the BOP and exchange rates can be illustrated by use of a simplified equation that summarizes the BOP (see next slide).
(X M) + (CI CO) + (FI FO) + FXB = BOP Where: X = exports of goods /services M = imports of goods /services CI = capital inflows CO = capital outflows
Fixed Exchange Rate Countries Under a fixed exchange rate system, The government bears the responsibility To ensure that the BOP is near zero. Floating Exchange Rate Countries Under a floating exchange rate system, Surpluses/deficits influence exchange rate.
A countrys import and export of goods and services is affected by changes in exchange rates. The transmission mechanism is in principle quite simple: Changes in exchange rates change relative prices of imports and exports, And changing prices in turn result in changes in quantities demanded Through the price elasticity of demand.
Balance of Payments
Resident : Eco entities that have a closer association with a given territory than another wrt their given eco activity With a degree of Permanance to their stay IT act 180 days Individuals Pvt corp Pvt Non profit Govt : : : : Residential status as per IT/similar acts Residence per IT/similar act (>180 days /yr) The territory where they are functioning All govt establishments on the native land & All Embassies, Counsulates, military or other Establishment of native govt. on foreign soil Foreign embassies on Indian soil Non-Res.
Balance of Payments
Transactions are recorded on the basis of Double Entry Bookkeeping by definition it has to balance. Every source must have a use and every debit a Credit
Economic Transactions
Two Parties needed Exchange of Goods and services for Value (moneys worth) Exceptions Transactions between Br and Ho Transfers of assets by migrants to new country Such one sided, non quid pro quo transactions are called unrequited Transfers
Valuation uniformity Cr & Dr items to balance Comparison across the world not possible w/out Comparison across items not possible otherwise IMF recommends Market Prices for uniformity
Exceptions to market price as the basis Issue of Sweat equity Branch and HO transactions Exports undervalued & Imports overvalued (money laundering) Exports are valued @ FOB and Imports @ CIF Forex conversion rates (Average, Spot Yr end?)
Timing issue To avoid discrepencies in BOP a/cs The time is when the legal ownership in goods/ services passes Exports : When the goods are cleared by customs for shipment Imports : On making the payment Advance: counted as imports Transport and other services : when paid for/ recd Unrequited: When the offset transaction happened Capex : When the flows happen
Special Transactions
SDR allocation Debit & Item allocation Cr or NW incr. SDR Reduction Cr & Item allocation Debit or NW Decr.
Gold is both a commodity and a Financial Asset Central banks Purchase of Gold converts a commodity into Cash (Monetization of Gold) Central banks sale of Gold reduces money Supply and increases (Gold) Commodity holding - Demonetization Unrequited Transfers Covers Grants, Gifts, transfers, taxes, Migrant trfr One side provides Eco Value w/out any quid pro quo One side of the entry is the utem recd the other side is transfers in India. Unrequited trfr in ROW
Undistributed Income attributable to Direct Investors Retained earnings Both a current a/c outflow and A Capital a/c inflow simulatneously
Balance of Payments
This is record of a countrys trade in goods and services in the current period. CA = Exports (X) Imports (M)
It is
divided into 4 sub-categories: Goods trade Services trade Income Current transfers
This includes all short- and long-term transactions pertaining to financial assets. KA = Capital Inflow (cr) Capital outflow (dr)
The two main components: Capital account. Financial account (direct, portfolio, other).
KA balance = Sum of capital account and financial account.
Official Reserves
Records the purchase or sale of official reserve assets by the central bank. These assets include Commercial paper, Treasury bills and bonds Foreign currency Money deposited with the IMF This account shows the change in foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank. Since the BOP must balance CA + KA + RFX = 0 The Balance of Payments Identity
CA + KA = RFX
For floating rate regime countries, such as the U.S., official reserves are relatively unimportant.
The identity CA + KA = RFX assumes that all transactions are measured accurately. Inaccurate recording of transactions (errors & omissions), results in the above equality not holding. For BOP to balance, CA + KA + E&O = RFX Assuming changes in official reserves, errors are approximately zero: Current Account = () Capital Account This will hold approximately for floating rate countries
CA -KA ( US $)
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
Exporter discounts bill with Res Bank On due Date, Bank gets funds From Citi NY and keeps funds therein. Int $ 50 A Imports of $ 800 from B. Paid thru loan from As Bank
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
B/ Recbl Dr
1,000
Exporter discounts bill with Res Bank On due Date, Bank gets funds From Citi NY and keeps funds therein. Int $ 50 A Imports of $ 800 from B. Paid thru loan from As Bank
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
B/ Recbl Dr
1,000
On due Date, Bank gets funds From Citi NY and keeps funds therein. Int $ 50
A Imports of $ 800 from B. Paid thru loan from As Bank
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
B/ Recbl Dr
1,000
Export
1,000
Cash Dr B/ Recbl Cr
1,000 1,000
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
B/ Recbl Dr
1,000
Cash Dr B/ Recbl Cr
1,000 1,000
On due Date, Bank gets funds From Citi NY and keeps funds therein. Intt Income Cr Int $ 50 A Imports of $ 800 from B. Paid thru loan from
Cash Dr
50
1,050 1,000 50
50
Interest Income
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
B/ Recbl Dr
1,000
Cash Dr B/ Recbl Cr
1,000 1,000
On due Date, Bank gets funds From Citi NY and keeps funds therein. Intt Income Cr Int $ 50 A Imports of $ 800 from B. Paid thru loan from Imports Dr A Bank loan Cr
Cash Dr
50
1,050 1,000 50
50
Interest Income
800 800
800 800
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
On due Date, Bank gets funds From B bank & keeps funds therein. Intt $ Intt Income Cr 50 A Imports of $ 800 from B. Paid thru loan from As Bank Imports Dr A Bank loan Cr
Cash Dr
50
1,050 1,000 50
50
Interest Income
800 800
800 800
No Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
Res (x) spends $ 5000 during foreign travel, by buying equivalent Bs currency in B
7 Expat sends $ 100 to his family in B The Family buys a $ bond from A
No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
Res (x) spends $ 5000 during foreign travel, by buying equivalent Bs currency in B
Travel Dr Cash Cr
5,000 5,000
5,000 5,000
7 Expat sends $ 100 to his family in B The Family buys a $ bond from A
No Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
Res (x) spends $ 5000 during foreign travel, by buying equivalent Bs currency in B
Travel Dr Cash Cr
5,000 5,000
5,000 5,000
100 100
100 100
Expat sends $ 100 to his family in B The Family buys a $ bond from A
No Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
Res (x) spends $ 5000 during foreign travel, by buying equivalent Bs currency in B
Travel Dr Cash Cr
5,000 5,000
5,000 5,000
100 100
100 100
Expat sends $ 100 to his family in B The Family buys a $ bond from A
Trfr Dr Bond Cr
100 100
100 100
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
Biz man ships Eqpt abroad to build factory $ 50,000 Addl Invt of $ 20,000 paid thru bonds Y makes a profit of $ 10,000 and uses it to Buy Back Bs bonds
10
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
F Assets Dr 8 Biz man ships Eqpt abroad to build factory $ 50,000 Sales exports
50,000 50,000
LT Investments Exports
50,000 50,000
10
11
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
F Assets Dr
50,000
LT Investments
50,000
Sales exports
50,000
Exports
50,000
F Assets Dr Addl Invt of $ 20,000 paid thru Bonds bonds payable Y makes a profit of $ 10,000 and uses it to Buy Back Bs bonds
20,000 20,000
20,000 20,000
10
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
F Assets Dr
50,000
LT Investments
50,000
Sales exports
50,000
Exports
50,000
F Assets Dr Addl Invt of $ 20,000 paid thru Bonds bonds payable Y makes a profit of $ 10,000 and uses it to Buy Back Bs bonds
20,000 20,000
20,000 20,000
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
13
Of the above, house worth $ 8,000 sold for 8000 (4000 now : 4000 Defd)
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
12 Z from B migrates to country A with Property worth $ 9000 Assets Misc receipts (trfr) 9,000 9,000
13
Of the above, house worth $ 8,000 sold for 8000 (4000 now : 4000 Defd)
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
12 Z from B migrates to country A with Property worth $ 9000 Assets Misc receipts (trfr) 9,000 9,000
13
Of the above, house worth $ 8,000 sold for 8000 (4000 now : 4000 Defd)
Sl No
Transaction
Normal A/ctng
BOP A/ctng
12 Z from B migrates to country A with Property worth $ 9000 Assets Misc receipts (trfr) 9,000 9,000
13
Of the above, house worth $ 8,000 sold for 8000 (4000 now : 4000 Defd)
1,000 1,000
1,000 1,000
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng BOP A/ctng Books of country 'A'
15
17
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng BOP A/ctng Books of country 'A'
15 Gold imports into 'A' - $ 300000 16 Migrant inherits wealth of $ 3,000 Imports Bank (Deposit) 300,000 300,000
17
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng BOP A/ctng Books of country 'A'
15 Gold imports into 'A' - $ 300000 16 F Assets Migrant inherits wealth of $ Bank 3,000 Misc Income 17 2,000 1,000 Imports 300,000 300,000
Bank (Deposit)
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng BOP A/ctng Books of country 'A'
15 Gold imports into 'A' - $ 300000 16 F Assets Migrant inherits wealth of $ Bank 3,000 Misc Income 17 Gift Exps Exports 2,000 1,000 Imports 300,000 300,000
Bank (Deposit)
200 200
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng BOP A/ctng Books of country 'A'
18
19
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng Bonds Dr Assets Cr 18 3,000 2,000 1,000 LT FA STFA 3,000 3,000 BOP A/ctng ST FA LT Invst Books of country 'A' 2,000 2,000
Bank Cr
,.
Sl No Transaction Normal A/ctng Bonds Dr Assets Cr 18 3,000 2,000 1,000 BOP A/ctng LT FA LT Invst STFA Books of country 'A' 3,000 2,000 1,000
Bank Cr
19
ST Foreign Assets
Exports (1) 1,000
Exports
ST Fin Asst (1)
1,000
Imports
ST Foreign Assets
Exports (1) Interest Income (3) Trfrs (6) 1,000 50 100
Exports
ST Fin Asst (1)
1,000 50,000 200 500 51,700
Trfr (14)
1,000
LT FA (18 a) LT Invt (13) Transfers (12) Transfer (19) LT Invst (18) Trfr (16) 1,000 9,150 4,000 1,000 0 2,000 Imports (4)
3,000
Bal
51,700
800
Imports
800
LT Foreign Assets LT Invt (13) ST FA (18 a) 4,000 3,000 7,000 Gold ST For Liab (15) 0 ST For Ass (14) Exports (17)
Trfrs 1,000 200 100 ST + LT Invts (12) LT Inv / ST As (16) 0 1,900 Services ST For Ass (19) 9,000 STF Asset (6) 100
600
3,000 0 12,100
8,000 2,000
5,000 5,000
ST Foreign (3)
50 50
8,000
LT Liabilities ST forn Liab (11) 10,000 LT Dir Invt (9) Transfers (7) 20,000 100 Notes Recbl (2) 10,000 ST Liabilities Travel (5) Imports (15) Gold (15) LT Forn Liab (11) Exp + Trfr (19) 0 5,000 100,000 200,000 Notes Receivable Cash (2) 1,000 20,100 Cash 1,000
10,000
100
315,100 1,000 1,000
BOP A/cs
Debit Exports Imports Net Trfs Services Cur Ac Balance 4,950 105,750 61,900 43,850 100,800 10,200 Credit 51,700
LT FA LT Dir Invs LT For Liab LT Cap ac ST For Liab Gold ST Fin Assets ST Cap Ac Net Fin flows
7,000 70,000 10,100 77,000 200,000 4,350 204,350 315,100 (110,750) 0 10,100 315,100 66,900
Current AC
Exports Merchandize Services
Inflow
Inflow Inflow
Outflow
Factor Income
Outflow
Capital Ac Net Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Capital Receive Payment from Foreigner, Sell Foreign Assets / Domestic Assets to foreigners Make Payment to foreigners, Buy Foreign Assets/ Dom Assets from foreigners
Balance on Cap Ac Statistical Discrepency Overall balance Official reserve Ac Indian official Reserve Foreign Official Reserve Balance of Reserve - Balance - Balance - Balance + Balance + Balance + Balance
Exchange Arithmetic
234
Forex
1. Retail Vs Wholesale Mkt
Banks, Invt Inst, NB Corp and Central banks Large Volumes (Avg size $ 4 mn) & small margins
One unit of Forex = How many units of Rs One unit of Rs = How many units of Forex
235
Forex
236
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Dollars
237
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Dollars Forex dealer ready to Exchange Rs 100 Buy Rs @ Sell Rs @ Spot $ 2.479 $ 2.481 Sell $ @ Buy $ @
238
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Dollars
239
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
240
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
241
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
242
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
243
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
244
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
245
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
246
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
Sell $ @ 40.339 1.45% -1.29% -1.05% 2.42% -1.13% -0.81% 40.290 40.469 40.552
You have called your Bank's forex trader and asked for quotations on US $ vis--vis INR
and received the same as below for Spot, 1-mth fwd, 3-mth fwd, 6-Mth forward
$ 2.479/81
"
3/5
"
8/7
"
13/10
a. What does it mean in terms of Dollar per INR b. If you wished to buy spot dollars, how much would you pay in INR c. What is the percent discount /Premium on Belgian francs Vs Dollars
Sell $ @ 40.339 1.45% -1.29% -1.05% 2.42% -1.13% -0.81% 40.290 40.469 40.552
250
Customer asks you to book a forward contract in DM 400,000 6 mts hence TT Margin 0.1500% Bill Margin 0.200%
D M quotes in Singapore as below Spot US 1 $ = DMs 1.5840 0.0300 0.0585 1.5850 0.0290 0.0575
6 mth premium
33.2000
33.2500
33.2500
33.2500
Spot
1.5840
33.2500
Spot
6 mth forward Prem. 6 mth forward Rate
1.5840
0.0585 1.5255
33.2500
Spot
6 mth forward Prem. 6 mth forward Rate Cross Rate DM / Rs
1.5840
0.0585 1.5255 21.7961
33.2500
Spot
6 mth forward Prem. 6 mth forward Rate Cross Rate Add Exch margin for TT Selling TT Selling Rate DM / Rs 0.15%
1.5840
0.0585 1.5255 21.7961 0.0327 21.8288
33.2500
Spot
6 mth forward Prem. 6 mth forward Rate Cross Rate Add Exch margin for TT Selling TT Selling Rate ADD Exch Margin for Bill selling Bill selling Rate 0.20% DM / Rs 0.15%
1.5840
0.0585 1.5255 21.7961 0.0327 21.8288 0.0437 21.8725
Customer does a swap of Selling Spot and Buying 2 mth forward $ US $ quoted @ 2 Mths Froward $ quoted @ Forward Rate Inerest Mumbai / US Brokerage (flat) / No of Mths 31.19 0.27 31.46 12.00% 0.0075%
Selling $ spot Less Brokerage Selling $ spot Interest earned in Rs Cumulative INR recd
Selling $ spot Less Brokerage Selling $ spot Interest earned in Rs Cumulative INR recd
Selling $ spot Less Brokerage Selling $ spot Interest earned in Rs Cumulative INR recd
Reversion to $
Less Brokerage Nett Recd on reversion
101,021
8 101,013
Selling $ spot Less Brokerage Selling $ spot Interest earned in Rs Cumulative INR recd
Reversion to $
Less Brokerage Nett Recd on reversion Intt Cost on $ Cos Paid
101,021
8 101,013 1,000 101,000
13
Selling $ spot Less Brokerage Selling $ spot Interest earned in Rs Cumulative INR recd
Reversion to $
Less Brokerage Nett Recd on reversion Intt Cost on $ Cos Paid
101,021
8 101,013 1,000 101,000
13
Bank Agrees to sell on 20 th Feb for 20th Apr delivery Sing $ Agreed rate Cover Deal 20th Mar, Customer wants sale to be advanced Rates on 20th Mar for 20th April Spot Forward 1 mth 19.71
19.76 19.70
19.65
Sell amount
195,200.00
Buy amount
Nett Margin
194,700.00
500.00
Sell amount
195,200.00
Buy amount
Nett Margin Pre Closure Deal Buy 20th Mar spot and Sell forward 20th Apr 20th Mar deals net cost Buy spot 10,000 Sing $ Sell forward Sing $ Apr 20 Nett Loss debited to customer
194,700.00
500.00
Sell amount
195,200.00
Buy amount
Nett Margin Pre Closure Deal Buy 20th Mar spot and Sell forward 20th Apr 20th Mar deals net cost Buy spot 10,000 Sing $ Sell forward Sing $ Apr 20 Nett Loss debited to customer Transaction cost debited Total Debit to Customer Ledger Original contract
194,700.00
500.00
195,200.0
Swap loss
Transaction Fee Total Debit
1,100.0
100.0 196,400.0
Sell amount
195,200.00
Buy amount
Nett Margin Pre Closure Deal Buy 20th Mar spot and Sell forward 20th Apr 20th Mar deals net cost Buy spot 10,000 Sing $ Sell forward Sing $ Apr 20 Nett Loss debited to customer Transaction cost debited Total Debit to Customer Ledger Original contract
194,700.00
500.00
195,200.0
Swap loss
Transaction Fee Total Debit
1,100.0
100.0 196,400.0
Derivatives
1. Value is derived from another underlying contract, reference or index 2. Recent developments have transformed them into a cheap & efficient means of Hedging : Neutralizes risk by fixing the price in Adv. For eg. Price of $ = 47 Rs on 1.Dec 09 Arbitraging : Take adv of discrepancy in prices across markets. Speculating : Take a directional bet. Thus contribute liquidity 3. Arrival of Floating Intt rate regime post 73, heralded the need for Risk mitigation mechanisms 4. Led to the development of Exchange traded Forex futures in Chicago 5. Computers expedited growth, since fast computing of complex derivative pricing became feasible
: The Value of derivative changing, esp as expiry approaches : Hedge may not be a perfect match to the Risk one is exposed to : CP not paying up. Less than for Loans, for only diff is at stake
: : : :
Two-way negotiated agreement. OTC. Gen, when Exact date unknown Exchange traded. Standard Contracts wrt Price, settlement date, contracts no. Right but not obligation to buy/sale. Option to Buy - call. Option to sell - Put 2-way Contr. to exchange 2 streams of payment for a period. Fix to float
Derivatives 1. Value is derived from another underlying contract, ref or index Correlation may be positive or negative Derivatives are possible only if two contrary views are likely
2. Recent developments have transformed them into a cheap & efficient means of Hedging : Neutralizes risk by fixing the price in Adv. For eg. Price of $ = 47.10 Rs on 1.Jan 2010 Arbitraging : Take adv of discrepancy in prices across Mkts. Speculating : Take a directional bet. Thus contribute liquidity
3. Arrival of Floating Intt rate regime post 73 heralded the need for Risk mitigation mechanisms 4. Led to the development of Exch.-Traded Forex futures in Chicago
Derivatives 5. Computers expedited growth, since fast computing of complex derivative pricing became feasible 6. Three risks Mkt : The Value of derivative changing, esp as expiry approaches Basis : Hedge may not be a perfect match to the Risk exposure Counter Party risk : CP not paying up. Less than for Loans, for only diff is at stake Exists only for OTC. In Exch. traded, CP is the Exch-CH itself. Hence OTC has lesser liquidity than Exchange-traded 7. Four products Forwards : 2-way. OTC. Negotiated. Used when Exact date unknown Futures : Exch-traded. Std Cont wrt Price, Size, Setl. date, Cont. no. Options : Exch. Right /no obligation to buy/sale. Call Buy. Put Sell Swaps : OTC. 2-way Cont. Exc of Payt strm for a period. Eg. Fix-float
A. Forwards
1. A Forward contract is a negotiated agreement between two parties.
2. Tailor-made OTC contracts not traded on organized exchanges 3. Used to cover forward recbls/ payables where the date of trn. Is not fixed 4. Generally dont involve an upfront margin except an admin fee in some. 5. Example a. Infy IT export $ 10,020 on 21st Feb. Gets a B/E for it, due 31st Mar 10 b. Re/$ rate on 21st Feb (say) 45.5 Rs/ $ c. Infy is unsure of the Exchange rate on 31st Mar 10 and wants a hedge
Currency Futures 1. It is the price of a particular currency for settlement at a future date. 2. Futures are traded on future exchanges 3. Exchanges with contract fungibility (freely transferred) are popular. 4. Standardized wrt Quantity of u/lying, Expiration date and delivery
a. Infosys eg. above. 1 unit @ 46/$. Min $100/ Contr. 100 Contr. for a hedge b. Still hedge is not perfect ($ 20 not covered). c. Pl remember. The price of 46/$ will keep varying by the minute on the screen d. The above Exchange rate of Rs. 46/$ is a price @ a particular point in time
Forwards Vs Futures
Features
Forwards
Futures
Not traded on exchange Direct between clients May differ from trade to trade. Hi flexibility Exists Poor, for contracts are tailor made Poor as markets are fragmented
Traded on Exchange Thru the clearing house of the Exchange Standardized contracts only Nil, Since CP is Clearing house of exch for all contracts High. For contracts are std and exchange-traded Better, as traded on a transparent Exchange
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
Sl no
Parameters
INR
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI
1
6.00%
1
12.00%
Sl no
Parameters
INR
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return
1
6.00% 6
1
12.00% 600
Sl no
Parameters
INR
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
INR
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
$ 1
INR S
2 Period (Yrs)
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
$ 1
INR S
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI ( % /100)
1
Rf
1
Rd
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
$ 1
INR S
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI ( % /100) 4 Return
1
Rf 1* Rf *1
1
Rd S* Rd*1
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
$ 1
INR S
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI ( % /100) 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
Rf 1* Rf *1 (1+Rf)
1
Rd S* Rd*1 S+(S*Rd*1)
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
$ 1
INR S
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI ( % /100) 4 Return 5 Cumulative 6 Cumulative
1
Rf 1* Rf *1 (1+Rf) 1+Rf
1
Rd S* Rd*1 S+(S*Rd*1) S*(1+Rd) S*(1+Rd)^n/(1+Rf)^n
Pricing of Forwards /Futures : Calculations Sl no Parameters $ 100 INR 5000 Spot / Fwd rate 50.0
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI 4 Return 5 Cumulative
1
6.00% 6 106
1
12.00% 600 5600 52.8
Sl no
Parameters
$ 1
INR S
2 Period (Yrs)
3 ROI ( % /100) 4 Return 5 Cumulative 6 Cumulative 7 Forward Rate
1
Rf 1* Rf *1 (1+Rf) 1+Rf 1.06
1
Rd S* Rd*1 S+(S*Rd*1) S*(1+Rd) S*(1+Rd)^n/(1+Rf)^n 56.00 52.8
Options : Based on exercise : Two Types 1. American Option : Can be exercised by buyer any time upto the expiration 2. European Option : Can be exercised only on the expiration date
45.000
45.000
Pay-offs
Re/$ ER 43.0 Long Call
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
45.000
Pay-offs
Re/$ ER 43.0 Long Call (2.50)
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
45.000
Pay-offs
Re/$ ER 43.0 Long Call (2.50)
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50)
45.000
Pay-offs
Re/$ ER 43.0 Long Call (2.50)
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50)
45.000
Pay-offs
Re/$ ER 43.0 Long Call (2.50)
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50) (0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
45.000
Pay-offs
4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 Call option pay-off 0.000 42.000 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) 44.000 46.000 48.000 50.000 52.000
43.0
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50) (0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
45.000
Pay-offs
4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 Call option pay-off 0.000 42.000 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) 44.000 46.000 48.000 50.000 52.000
43.0
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50) (0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
45.0
46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
45.000
Pay-offs
4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 Call option pay-off 0.000 42.000 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) 44.000 46.000 48.000 50.000 52.000
43.0
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50) (0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
45.0
46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
2.50
45.000
Pay-offs
4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 Call option pay-off 0.000 42.000 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) 44.000 46.000 48.000 50.000 52.000
43.0
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50) (0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
45.0
46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
2.50
1.50 0.50 (0.50) (1.50) (2.50) (3.50)
Spot Strike
45.000
1.700
Spot Strike
45.000
1.700
Put option
Pay off
46.000 47.000
44.000
46.000
48.000
50.000
52.000
Spot Strike
45.000
1.700
Put option
Pay off
46.000 47.000
44.000
46.000
48.000
50.000
52.000
Spot Strike
45.000
1.700
Put option
Pay off
46.000 47.000
44.000
46.000
48.000
50.000
52.000
Spot Strike
45.000
1.700
Put option Pay off 3.300 2.300 1.300 0.300 (0.700) (1.700) (1.700) (1.700) (1.700)
Put option
Pay off
46.000 47.000
44.000
46.000
48.000
50.000
52.000
45.000
Re / $
combined
4.000 3.000
2.000 1.000 0.000 42.000 43.000 44.000 45.000 46.000 47.000 48.000 49.000 50.000 51.000 52.000 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) Call option pay-off Put option Pay off
50.000
51.000
0.800
1.800
45.000
Pay-offs
Re/$ ER 43.0 44.0 Short Call 2.50 2.50
45.0
46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
2.50
1.50 0.50 (0.50) (1.50) (2.50) (3.50)
45.000
Pay-offs
4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 Call option pay-off 0.000 42.000 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) 44.000 46.000 48.000 50.000 52.000
43.0
44.0
45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
(2.50)
(2.50) (1.50) (0.50) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
45.0
46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0
2.50
1.50 0.50 (0.50) (1.50) (2.50) (3.50)
Pay-off Equations
Pay-off Equations
1. Long Call Option Pay-off = Max (S-Xt-OP, -OP) 2. Long Put Option Pay-off = Max (Xt-S-OP, -OP)
Pay-off Equations
1. Long Call Option Pay-off = Max (S-Xt-OP, -OP) 2. Long Put Option Pay-off = Max (Xt-S-OP, -OP)
Pay-off Equations
1. Long Call Option Pay-off = Max (S-Xt-OP, -OP) 2. Long Put Option Pay-off = Max (Xt-S-OP, -OP)
3. Short Call Option Pay-off = Min (Xt-S+OP, OP) 4. Short Put Option Pay-off = Min (S-Xt +OP, OP) 5. S = Spot price : Xt = Exercise Price : OP = Option Prem.
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Call options Put option
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Striking Price Call options + Put option -
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Striking Price Time to expiration Call options + Put option +
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Striking Price Time to expiration Call options + + Put option + +
Stock Volatility
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Striking Price Time to expiration Call options + + Put option + +
Stock Volatility
Interest Rate
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Striking Price Time to expiration Call options + + Put option + +
Stock Volatility
Interest Rate Cash Dividends
+
+
+
-
Effect of Increase in factor on Factor Current Stock Price Striking Price Time to expiration Call options + + Put option + +
Stock Volatility
Interest Rate Cash Dividends
+
+ -
+
+
319
Chapter
10
Management of Foreign Exchange Risk
Types of Exposure
Translation Exposure
Assets and liabilities translated at the current rate ie rate prevailing at the time of preparation of consolidated statements.
Rev/Exps translated at the actual Exch rates prevailing on the date of transactions. Or weighted averages for exchange rates can be used.
Transaction Exposure
Refers to the extent of impact on firms domestic C/F of exchange rate flux
Arises from Possible forex gains/losses on transaction entered into in forex
Economic Exposure
Refers to the extent of impact on firms domestic C/F of exchange rate flux Arises from Possible gains/losses W/o direct exposure to forex transactions Economic exposure is a more managerial concept than an accounting concept.
C C C C H
C C C C H
C C C C or H H
C C C C C
L/Term Debt
Net Worth
H
H
C
H
C
H
C
Bal
The most popular instrument used to hedge are forward exchange contracts in India. 1. Forward exchange markets are well established and transparent.
2.
3.
Heard of (Awareness)
100.% 98.8 98.8 96.4 95.8 93.5 91.2 88.0 88.0 83.6 81.7 77.7 65.3 55.8 52.1
Used (Adoption) 93.1% 52.6 20.1 17.3 8.9 48.8 28.7 22.0 18.6 15.8 14.8 4.2 4.9 3.8 5.1
The degree of simultaneous movements of two or more currencies with respect to some base currency is explained by currency correlations ( R )
Indicates the degree to which two currencies move in relation to each other.
Cont.
13
Chapte r
Translation Exposure
Accounting based changes in consolidated financial statements caused by a change in exchange rates
Economic Exposure
Change in expected cash flows arising because of an unexpected change in exchange rates
Transaction Exposure
Impact of setting outstanding obligations entered into before change in exchange rates but to be settled after change in exchange rates
Cont.
Economic Exposure
General; relates to the entire investment. Opportunity losses caused by an exchange rate change are difficult to compute. A good variance accounting is needed to isolate the effect of exchange rate change on sales volume, costs and profit margins.
3. Firms generally have some policies to cope with Firms generally do not have policies to cope with transaction exposure. economic exposure. 4. Avoidance sometimes requires third-party cooperation (e.g., changing invoice currency). Avoidance requires good strategic planning (e.g., choice of markets, products, etc.).
5. The duration of exposure is the same as the time The duration of exposure is the time required for the period of the contract. restructuring of operations through such means as changing products, markets, sources and technology. 6. Relates to nominal contracts whose value is fixed in foreign currency terms. 7. The only source of uncertainty is the future exchange rate. 8. Transaction exposure is an uncertain domestic currency value of a cash flow which is known and fixed in foreign currency terms; e.g., a foreign currency receivable. Relates to cash flow effects through changes in cost, price and volume relationships. The many sources of uncertainties include the future exchange rate and its effect on sales, price and costs. Economic exposure is an uncertain domestic currency value of a cash flow whose value is uncertain even in foreign currency terms; e.g., cash flows from a foreign subsidiary.
2. Assessing the economic exposure of an MNC is difficult due to the complex interaction of funds that flow into, out of and within the MNC.
4. If an MNC has subsidiaries around the world, each subsidiary will be affected differently by fluctuations in currencies.
a. Market selection b. Product strategy c. Pricing strategy d. Promotional strategy II. Production initiatives
A firm selling overseas should follow the standard economic proposition of setting the price that maximises dollar profits (Marginal Rev = Marginal costs).
In making this decision, however, profits should be translated using the Fwd rate that reflects the true expected dollar value of the receipts upon collection. Promotional Strategy : This to take into account anticipated exchange rate changes. A key issue is the size of the promotional budget. Product Strategy product line decisions product innovations
Prod sourcing and plant location are variables (eg. below) that Cos leverage to manage competitive risks that cannot be managed through Mktg strategies
a.
Input Mix
b.
c. d.
Selective Hedging
Unhedged
Cont.
Low Risk
Chapter
18
Country Risk Analysis
2.
3. 4.
Cont.
II. Balance of Payments % increase in imports / GDP Foreign income elasticity of demand for the exports Under/overvaluation of the Exch rate, on a PPP basis Current Account/GNP Effective Exchange Rate Index Imports of goods and services/GDP Non-essential consumer goods and services/Total imports Exports to 1015 main customers/Total exports Exports of 1015 main items/Total exports External reserves/Imports Reserves as % of imports (goods and services) Exports as % of imports (goods and services)
Cont.
III. Economic Performance The significant ratios that can be used to measure Eco Perf are: GNP Per capita (this measures the level of Dev of a country).
IV. Political Instability 1. Effect of political instability on servicing problems : Emerge in the form of an unwillingness rather than an inability to service 2. The political instability indicators to be considered are: a. The political protests /demonstrations /Strikes/riots, Assassinations b. Successful/ unsuccessful power transfers, e.g., coup attempt, etc.
V. Weighted Checklist Approach 1. This approach employs a combo of statistical / Judgmental factors. 2. Statistical factors assess the performance of an economy in the recent past
3. In the expectation that this will provide an insight into the future.
4. These factors can be compiled relatively easily. 5. Range of statistical factors typically used a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. Rapid rise in production costs, interest-service ratio, real GDP growth, Debt/GDP, imports/reserves, Foreign exchange receipt, Export/GDP ratio, Import/GDP, etc.
Rating agency
Institutional Investor
What the Rankings Reveal Eco & Political factors have an impact on a countrys ranking over time. For a significant number of countries the increase or decrease in ranking over time could be explained by the economic factors alone. Political factors also play a key role in determining a countrys credit rating. Model for Country Risk Analysis for India The Country rankings published by various agencies is useful In as much as it ensures comparability and promotes consistency. This brings us to the concept of country risk rating.
Country risk rating refers to the degree or level of risk denoted by a figure.
Risk rating is a good tool for ensuring the comparability of risk across countries
Borrowing entity Debt Equity Ratio Corporate Profitability Other Indicators of Corp conditions Household indebtedness Management Soundness Exoense Ratio Earnings Per employee Growth in no of Finance Institutions Earnings & Profitability Return on Assets Return on Equity Income and Expense Ratio Structure Profitability indicators
Market Based indicators Mkt Prices of Fin Instruments Indicators of Excess Yields Credit Ratings Sovereign Yield spreads
Volatility in Interest & exch rates Level of domestic Real Interest rates Exchange rate sustainability Exchange rate guarantee Lending and Asset price Booms Lending Booms Asset Price Booms Contagion Effects
1.
2.
2.
Credit Risk: Credit risk, inherent in all banking activities, arises from the
possibility that the counterparty may not make the payment on maturity
3.
Sovereign Risk: A variation of credit risk. It refers to, the political, legal and other risks associated with a cross-border payment.
22
Chapte r
with parallel and back-to-back loans. The first true currency swap was arranged in August 1981 by Salomon Brothers with the World Bank and IBM as counterparties.
The first interest rate swap appeared in London in 1982. The motivating factor behind the interest rate swaps was their ability to convert fixed rate interest payments into floating rate interest payments and vice versa
Swap Facilitators
Swap Broker Notional Principal
I.
II.
Cont.
1.
The interest rate swap does not involve any exchange of principal amounts. It consists only of an agreement to exchange interest flows.
2.
Because of the smaller amount at risk, the number of potential participants in the deals is larger.
3.
Also, because the deal is not a lending, it is possible to keep the documentation within reasonable bounds.
4.
Swapping allows the issuers to revise their debt profile to take advantage of current or expected future market conditions.
Cont.
3. Termination of the Swap deal is not possible without the agreement of the parties involved in the transaction.
4. In some cases it may be difficult to identify a counterparty to take the opposite side of the transaction.
6. This calls for extra caution on the part of parties involved to look into the creditworthiness of the counterparties before entering into an agreement.
Reasons for Growth of Swap Market 1. IRS creates a link between distinct markets or firms with Diff mkt access
3. Arises from the diff in the risk premium available to the various borrowers.
6. Swaps are desirable for they can minimise the costs of regulations / Tax
Cont.
Cont.
Plain Vanilla Interest Rate Swaps The key features of this swap are:
1.
2. 3.
Basis Swap
Forward Swaps Putable Swaps
4.
5. 6. 7.
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Swap Deal
ING borrows Fixed @ 6 % and ICICI float @ Libor +.5% ING lends Fixed @ 7.3% & ICICI lends Float @ Libor +.5%
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Fixed Paid
6.00%
7.3%
1.3%
Swap Deal
ING borrows Fixed @ 6 % and ICICI float @ Libor +.5% ING lends Fixed @ 7.3% & ICICI lends Float @ Libor +.5%
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Fixed Paid
Float Paid
6.00%
Libor +.5%
1.3%
Swap Deal
ING borrows Fixed @ 6 % and ICICI float @ Libor +.5% ING lends Fixed @ 7.3% & ICICI lends Float @ Libor +.5%
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Fixed Paid
Float Paid Fixed Recd
6.00%
Libor +.5% 7.30%
1.3%
Float Recd
Libor +.5%
Swap Deal
ING borrows Fixed @ 6 % and ICICI float @ Libor +.5% ING lends Fixed @ 7.3% & ICICI lends Float @ Libor +.5%
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Fixed Paid
Float Paid Fixed Recd
6.00%
Libor +.5% 7.30%
1.3%
Float Recd
Nett Rate Libor - 0.8%
Libor +.5%
7.3%
Swap Deal
ING borrows Fixed @ 6 % and ICICI float @ Libor +.5% ING lends Fixed @ 7.3% & ICICI lends Float @ Libor +.5%
Details
Fixed
Floating Nett
ING
ICICI
6.00% 8.00
Libor Libor +0.5%
Difference
2.0%
0.5% 1.5%
Fixed Paid
Float Paid Fixed Recd
6.00%
Libor +.5% 7.30%
1.3%
Float Recd
Nett Rate Alt Rate Gain Swap Deal Libor - 0.8% Libor 0.80%
Libor +.5%
7.3% 8.0%
0.7%
1.50%
ING borrows Fixed @ 6 % and ICICI float @ Libor +.5% ING lends Fixed @ 7.3% & ICICI lends Float @ Libor +.5%
14.00% p.a.
Fixed Rate Investment
Cont.
11.5% p.a.
Counterparty Six months LIBOR Investor
10.5% p.a.
Counterparty Six months LIBOR
Cont.
Asset/liability management
Floating Rate (T-Bill based) Assets
Issuer
Fixed Rate Receipt
Swap Counterparty
Currency Swap
Basic Currency Swap
A Currency Swap
Japanese yen received from subsidiary
Yen payments Dollar payments US Multinational Yen payments Japanese multinational Yen payments
Dollar payments
The World Bank-IBM Currency Swap The Bank had 3 objectives in mind before thinking of entering into a Swap
i. ii.
v.
Amortizing swaps
2. Banks furnish potential customers with bid and ask prices stated in terms of interest rates and exchange rates that reflect bid-ask spreads.
5. Spreads for currency swaps are > spreads for interest rate swaps.
6. Currency swaps involve both exchange rate risk and interest rate risk.
Chapter
Eurocurrency Market
Sl no
Borrower
Lender
Market
1 Indian Entity
India
Re
Domestic loan
2 Indian Entity
UK / Non-UK Entity
London
Sterling
Foreign loan
Sl no
Borrower
Lender
Market
1 Indian Entity
India
Re
Domestic loan
2 Indian Entity
UK / Non-UK Entity
London
Sterling
Foreign loan
3 Indian Entity
UK /Non-UK Entity
London
Eurocurrency : Freely convertible currency deposited in a bank outside country of origin. Deposits can be placed in a foreign bank/ foreign Br of a domestic bank.
Massive BOP surpluses of OPEC due to Incr in oil prices in 73-74 & 78. Resulting in accumulation of $ by Foreign Fin institutions & individuals. Restrictive environment prevailing in US (19631974) to stem Cap OF
5.
6. 5. 6.
EuroCurrency Interest Rates :a. Base Intt rate paid on deposits among banks in Eurocurrency market is LIBOR b. LIBOR - Determined by supply /demand for funds in Euromkt for each currency c. Participating banks could default (and, infrequently, do default) d. So, Rate paid for Eurodollar deposits has a Cr-spread over LIBOR in Euromkt e. Cost of borrowing in Euromkt historically is marginally below the Domestic rate f. Interest rates on other Eurocurrencies generally follow the same pattern g. If Capital controls exist in a country (e.g., Japan), borrowing rates may be higher in the Euromkt (for Yen) than in domestic market.
Instruments
1. Euro CDs 2. Euro CPs 3. Euro Debt 4. External Commercial Borrowing (ECBs) 5. FCCBs 6. Euro Notes Issuance : FRNs, Floaters etc 7. GDR / ADRs
4. Interest for the next period is calculated at a fixed margin over new LIBOR.
Eurocurrency CDs are issued in two forms: Tap CDs Issued in large denominations ($ 2.5 to $5 million) For maturities of < 1 year, whenever banks need to tap the mkt
Tranche CDs Big Tkt issues (typically $10 mn to $50 mn), one or more drawal
Issued and sold in mkts outside the Country of the borrower Denominated in a currency other than that of the borrowers Currency And in a currency diff from that of the market where it is mobilised Placed by the borrower directly on the Market & not lent to by banks
Features Euro bonds are underwritten and sold in more than one market Simultaneously usually through international syndicates And are purchased by an international investing public Extending far beyond the confines of the countries of issue.
2. 3. 4.
5.
388
Eurobond Market
3- FRNs: since the early 1980s. medium-term notes where the interest is fixed as a percentage above sixmonth LIBOR. Pays a semi-annual coupon determined on variable-rate base. Negotiable and transferable securities with flexible interest rate, fixed interest periods, and issued in pre-determined and uniform amounts. FRNs are
directed at institutional investors
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 389
Particulars
Fund Suppliers Exposure on Rate
Euro Loan
Bank Floating
Euro Bond
Customer Fixed or Floating
3
4 5
Maturity
Issue Size Floatation cost
Short to Long
Structurally high, since an inter bank mkt Low (0.5%) Draw down / repayment Per Fixed schedule A regular feature Faster (1- 2 weeks)
Long
Past - low. Now increasing High (upto 2.5%) Flexible s/to commitment fee on undrawn bal Possible only thru a costlier swap Slower
6 7 9
Asia- currency market and Asia Bonds Singapore the trading hub for Asia currency markets Asia Bonds : issued directly to investors, avoiding banks
(97- Peregrine- Indonesia Suharto Rupiah dep (2400 8000/$) $260 M
Euro - MTN
1. Similar to NIF. But for M/T. ~ 5 yrs. Neednt be U/written 2. Adv : Speed, cost & flexibility in timing & volume of issuance
( eg $ 12 M for 1 mth, $ 15 M for 75 days & $23 mn for 90 days)
3. Offered continually to leverage on yield curve movements 4. Retired either thru a new issue or by redemption 5. GM, Coke, Pepsi, ford are regulars 6. Till mid 80s secondary trading languished. 7. Now issued thru dealers than direct . Facilitates mkt making 8. Risk for issuer - Mkt tanking before issue goal is fully met 9. U/writing with Banks / Fin players (like NIF) mitigates this.
Euro CP vs Normal CP
No
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Particulars
Average maturity Underwriting Secondary market Typical investors Popularity Rating Currency
Euro CP
6 mths no Exists Central banks, com banks, Corporates Improving 4% - 5% - unrated
Normal CP
3 months Carved out of Bank WC india. US No U/W No. Held to maturity MMMFs, Local Banks India OK. US - Best Rarely unrated
Multi currency
Cross currency swap
Single Currency
Not needed
Addl feature
The rate of savings is low because the income levels are at a low level Where small savings are possible, they are very difficult to mobilise. Scarcity of forex : Developing economies have adverse BOP LDC exports < large Capital imports needed during Growth Funding of infra by Govt alone cannot go on forever on borrowed money
c. ECB exposes the firm to a currency risk. d. Borrower may spend more Rs to buy $ to meet Intt / Principal liability.
e. Borrower exposed to an interest rate risk too. f. Most ECBs are pegged to the 6-month LIBOR-Plus-spread
e. But such a contract proves costlier than entering into two single contracts.
iii. iv.
Cont.
Depositary Receipts
Agenda
Basic Concepts History Basic Issuance Process Types of DR Programs Advantages & Disadvantages Current Trends
Basic Concepts
Depositary Receipt (DR) Certificates that represents shares of foreign companies Global Depositary Receipt (GDR) Negotiable Instrument denominated in US $ or One GDR may represent one or more shares Eg. 1 GDR = 100 Shares American Depositary Receipt (ADR) Payments and Receipts in US dollars Trade in US exchange markets only
Depository Receipts
DRs structured to resemble typical stocks on the exchanges
Issuance Process
Level II
Sponsored ADR
US dollars
Stock Search
Issuance Process
US Dollars
Issuance Process
Foreign Co Seeks to enhance liquidity. Seeks to expand & diversify investors Responsible for Preparing the issue proposal, Determining fin objective, Deciding the type of program
US dollars
What is the main role of the depositary bank in the issuance process?
Types of DR Programs
Unsponsored ADR Description: The foreign company has no formal participation with issuance Purpose: Broaden the shareholder base with the existing shares Trading: Over-the-counter market SEC: Minimal requirements from the SEC
Types of DR Programs
Level I Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Formal participation by issuer company Purpose: Broaden the shareholder base with the existing shares Trading: OTC market SEC: Minimal SEC filings
Types of DR Programs
Level II Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Description: Listed on US exchanges Purpose: Broaden the shareholder base with the existing shares
Types of DR Programs
Private Placement of ADRs Purpose: Faster and cheaper way for companies to raise capital than level III ADRs GDR Used most frequently in Europe where there are less regulations Variants Euro Depositary Receipts, Retail Depositary Receipts, and Singapore Depositary Receipts
ADVANTAGES OF GDRs
Allow investors to invest in foreign companies without worrying about Foreign trading practices Different laws Cross boarder taxes/fees
GDRs offer the same corporate rights, esp voting rights To the holders of GDRs as the investors of the u/lying stock
DISADVANTAGES OF GDRs
GDRs do have foreign exchange risk if the currency of the issuer is different from the currency of the GDR, Which is usually the U.S. dollar.
GDR Advantages
Allow investors to invest in foreign companies without worrying about foreign trading practices, different laws, or cross-border transactions. GDRs offer the same corporate rights, esp voting rights, to the holders Easier trading, payment of dividends in GDR Cur and corporate notifications Inst investors can buy them, even when they are restricted by law from buying shares of foreign Co GDRs overcome restrictions on foreign O/ship, Cap movement imposed by the country of the corporate issuer, avoids risky settlement procedures, eliminates local/Transfer taxes There are also no foreign custody fees, ranging from 10 to 35 BPS/yr. GDRs are liquid because supply and demand can be regulated by creating or cancelling GDR shares.
GDR Disadvantages
GDRs do, however, have foreign exchange risk If the currency of the issuer is different From the currency of the GDR
Trends
Although ADRs were the most prevalent form of DRs, The number of GDRs has recently surpassed ADRs Due to lower expense and time savings in issuing GDRs
Trends
In the 1990s, the development of DRs drastically increased because of changes in regulations by the SEC and the privatization of foreign companies. The number of sponsored DR programs grew from 352 representing 24 countries in 1990 To over 1,800 from 78 countries in 2001.
Conclusion
DRs make foreign investing easy for investors Foreign Cos are able to increase liquidity and raise capital An increase in DRs since 1990s
FDI Policy
Per Current policy, FDI is not permitted in following sectors Atomic energy; Lottery business/gambling and betting; Agriculture (excluding floriculture, horticulture, seed development, animal husbandry, pisciculture and cultivation of vegetables, mushrooms, etc.)
There are two routes for FDI in India Automatic Route (AR) FDI permitted under AR for all, except the 2 following 1. Where foreign collaborator has an existing venture/tieup in India in the same field. Exceptions are Investment by a VCF registered with SEBI; Existing JV has < 3% investment by either party; Existing joint venture is defunct or sick
2. Proposals ultra vires sectoral policy caps / sectors in which FDI is not permitted
FIPB Route (Approval Route) In all other cases, approval is required from FIPB. FIPB decision - normally conveyed within 30 days of applicn Proposals decided case-to-case basis based on merits And In accordance with the prescribed sectoral policy.
Acquisition of Shares
Acquisitions may be made of an existing Indian company which may be either a private or a public company. Acquisition of shares of a Listed Co is S/to the guidelines of the Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
Foreign investors looking at acquiring equity in an existing Indian Co thru stock acquisitions can do so under auto route.
FIIs are also permitted to purchase shares/CDs of Indian Cos thru Pvt Placement /arrangement.
Foreign Pension funds, MFs, Invt trusts, AMCs, Incorporated Inst portfolio Mgrs / their POAs may invest In India as FIIs.
up to 5% on net domestic sales & 8% on exports S/to to a total payment of 8% on sales, W/o restriction on the duration of royalty payments.
Note - It is permissible for an Indian Co to issue equity shares against lumpsum fee and royalty in convertible forex
Indian companies listed on the stock exchange are allowed to raise capital through GDRs/ADRs/FCCBs. Foreign Invt thru GDRs/ADRs/FCCBs is also treated as FDI. Issue of GDRs/ADRs does not require any prior approvals
Save when FDI after issue would exceed the sectoral caps in which case prior approval of FIPB would be required.
Preference shares
Indian cos can mobilize foreign investment through issue of preference shares for financing their projects/industries. Pref share issue permissible only as Re denominated instruments. Pref shares to redeemed out of accumulated profits/ fresh capital within a period of 20 years as per Indian Co Law. Preference shares, carrying a conversion option, must comply with sectoral caps on foreign equity. If the preference shares do not have conversion option, they fall outside the FDI cap.
Derivatives
1. Value is derived from another underlying contract, reference or index 2. Recent developments have transformed them into a cheap & efficient means of Hedging : Neutralizes risk by fixing the price in Adv. For eg. Price of $ = 47 Rs on 1.Dec 09 Arbitraging : Take adv of discrepancy in prices across markets. Speculating : Take a directional bet. Thus contribute liquidity 3. Arrival of Floating Intt rate regime post 73, heralded the need for Risk mitigation mechanisms 4. Led to the development of Exchange traded Forex futures in Chicago 5. Computers expedited growth, since fast computing of complex derivative pricing became feasible
: The Value of derivative changing, esp as expiry approaches : Hedge may not be a perfect match to the Risk one is exposed to : CP not paying up. Less than for Loans, for only diff is at stake
: : : :
Two-way negotiated agreement. OTC. Gen, when Exact date unknown Exchange traded. Standard Contracts wrt Price, settlement date, contracts no. Right but not obligation to buy/sale. Option to Buy - call. Option to sell - Put 2-way Contr. to exchange 2 streams of payment for a period. Fix to float
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
439
440
What is a Eurocurrency?
Any freely convertible currency, such as a $ or a DM or , deposited in a bank outside its country of origin. It is the residency of the bank and not its nationality that determines the euro nature of the deposit. Eurocurrency deposits are typically short-term deposits <1 year, whereas eurocredits are longer term, hence a maturity transformation in the Eurobanks balance sheets.
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 442
443
EUROBONDS
Eurobonds: long-term financial instruments issued by MNCs, IFIs or country governments, and denominated in a currency other than that of the country of placement. Eurobonds are underwritten by a multinational syndicate of investment banks and simultaneously placed in many countries. They are issued in bearer form, and coupon payments are made yearly. The US$ accounts for about 50% of eurobonds. Liquidity in the secondary market is monitored by CERAM Euro-clear. Highly 447 MH BOUCHET (c)
Bonds
Contractual obligation on the part of the seller/issuer of the bond (the borrower) to pay a fixed amount per year for a set number of years to the buyer of the bond (the lender). At maturity, the borrower repays the original face value of the sum borrowed. Coupon= number of $ paid the lender per year Maturity= number of years over which the bond runs Par value= original sum borrowed
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 448
Bonds
Coupon, par value and coupon rate are invariant over the life of the bond. The coupon rate is established by competitive pricing in the market. The coupon rate is set so that the bond will be able to compete with comparable instruments in terms of maturity, yield, credit risk The bond can be traded on the secondary market at a market price which depends on the current market rate of interest for that type of bond. When the market rate of interest fluctuates, the price of the bond will
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 449
Bonds
P= M (1 + i) n M is bond value at maturity, P is present value, i is interest rate, n is number of years. There is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. For a given P, the higher i, the smaller M.
450
Yield curve
Yield spreads refer to the difference between the yield on a given bond at the time of issuance and the yield on US Treasury securities of comparable maturity or other comparable government securities if the bond is issued in other currencies than the US$. The US Treasury securities are used as proxy for risk-free return. As of end2001, the US10-year rate is the base rate as opposed to the 30-year rate till 2000.
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 452
as of May 15, and October 24, 2000 and November 30, 2001
30
Emerging Markets Eurobonds with low default track High risk/high yield
record (premium of 20 basis points compared with US corporate borrowers for identical ratings) historically, defaults only in the 1930s and late 1980s but recovery rate is better for sovereign debtors than corporate debtors (75% vs 40%) problem of comparability of treatment with Paris Club and London Club debt (Pakistan, Ukraine, Ecuador, Argentina) Market risk remains high due to concentration on 5 major countries 455 MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM (Argentina, Mexico, Korea, Brazil and
Eurobond Market
By spreading the risk among thousands of investors, both private and institutional, as opposed to a handful of banks in the loan market, the bond markets lower the cost of risk and thus reduce the cost of funding for companies and other borrowers. This in turn enables companies to raise larger amounts of debt. Many companies took benefit of the depreciating euro in the fist half of 1999 to borrow in Euros and swap the proceeds into US$, which had an immediate downward effect on the value of the , hence the link between the the euros weakness and the popularity of the euro456 MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM denominated bond market (US$300 b worth of
Gross= completed new bond and note issues in US$ billion Net= Gross - redemptions and repurchases
10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
457
Q2
2003
458
$ Y Other
45% 34%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
459
460
US$1.5 billion dollar and eurodenominated issue, as benchmark government bond: October 2003 Chinas rating = A2 (Moodys) * 10-year US$1 billion dollar tranche arranged by Goldman Sachs, Merrill and Morgan, at 53 bp over USTB * 5-year 400 million euro tranche arranged by Deutche Bank, BNP and UBS, at 7 bp over Euribor
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 461
Between September and November of 2000, the US Agency Freddie Mac launched five-year two -denominated bond issues of 5 billion respectively as part of Euro-reference note programme, with ANB Amro and Morgan Stanley as lead managers. Multicurrency and global bond issues reach US$815 billion in 2000, a 14% rise. 11/2003: the EBRD is about to issue a US$150 million rouble bond in Russias market for on-lending purposes
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 462
Eurobond Market
Deutsche Bank Morgan Stanley Warburg Dillon Reed ABN Amro Merill Lynch Lazard Frres JP Morgan Salomon/Citibank BNP-Paribas Barclays Commerzbank Credit Suisse First Boston
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 463
Bond markets
Yankee market: issues have to satisfy SEC listing requirements. These require higher standards of accounting and disclosure than typical for Eurobond issuers. In 11/1993, the SEC adopted measures to simplify the listing of foreign companies in US markets. They include recognition of international accounting standards, easier registration procedures, and reduction in the required reporting history from 3 years to 12 months. Samura market
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 464
Floating-rate note
Equity-related issue
465
III- Euro medium-term notes (EMTNs) It bridges the gap between the ST euro commercial paper issued in domestic markets < 6 months, and the longer-term international bond. Market expansion when the SEC instituted Rule # 415, allowing companies to obtain shelf registrations for debt issues: once the registration was obtained, the corporation could issue notes on a continuous basis without having to obtain new registrations for each additional issue. This allows a firm to sell S/MT notes through a cheaper and more flexible issuance facility than ordinary bonds.
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 468
syndicate of investment banks and other securities firms and is sold exclusively in countries other than the country in whose currency the issue is denominated: $denominated bond issued by a US company, but sold to investors in Europe and Japan. Eurobonds offer tax anonimity and flexibility. To receive interest, the bearer cuts an interest coupon from the bond and turns it in at a banking institution listed on the issue as paying agent. Eurobonds are offered simultaneoulsy in a 469 number of different MH BOUCHET (c)markets. capital CERAM
1. Straight fixed-rate issue: bearer bonds, fixed coupon, set maturity date, full principal repayment upon final maturity. Coupons are normally paid annually. 2. Equity-linked bonds: convertible bonds or bonds with equity warrants (amounted to $64 billion in 1997, and $32 billion in 1998). Right to acquire equity stock in the issuing company (sometimes with detachable warrants containing the acquisition rights). The market value of an ELB is composed of the naked value and the conversion value. The conversion to stock prior to maturity is at a specified price per share, or a specified number of shares per bond. The borrower is able toCERAM issue debt with470 lower MH BOUCHET (c) coupon payments due to the added value of the
Global bonds
Global bonds are issued simultaneously in several major international markets and allow issuers to tap into broader demand and obtain lower rates than those availabe in a single market. Some market participants estimate that EMCs such as Brazil and Argentina have been able to reduce the interest rate on funds raised through global issues by as much as 30 basis points. Argentina was the first borrower ever to issue a global bond on 12/1993 with a US$1 billion placement.
472
12/98: Telefonica del Peru (TDP) launched a $150 million 10-year bond backed by telephone receivables via JP Morgan, with a 7.48% coupon. The deal was priced at 315 bp over 5-year UST bills. The bonds were rated A- by DCR and A3 by Moodys. 11/2000: Banco de Credito raised a $100 million 7-year bond backed by its inflow of hard currency electronic transfers. The $ flow was transferred to the offshore trustee for the benefit of the certificate holder. (the structure was substantially over
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 473
474
Axiom: an emerging market is a market from which you cannot emerge in an emergency! Ex.: Paris Club insists on involving Eurobond investors in refinancing and restructuring workouts. Test cases: Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Ecuador and Venezuela (US$60 billion question!); Rumania alone owes US$863 million eurobonds (i.e., tradeable instruments)
476
pro rata sharing : A legal covenant in commercial bank agreements which specifies that debt service payments are to be made through the agent bank for allocation on a pro rata basis to all creditor banks. Further, payments received or recovered by any one lender must be shared on a pro rata basis with all co-creditors under the loan agreement. Thus, no one lender may be placed in a more favorable position than its co-lenders with respect to payments received and/or recovered. cross-default: A legal wrinkle which allows one creditor to declare default and exercise 478 MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM its remedies against the borrower in cases
clause in loan agreements that stipulates certain circumstances under which repayment is accelerated. The debtor, by being obligated to prepay any one creditor, must repay all lenders on a pro rata basis. In the context of rescheduling agreements, the provision is intended to neutralize "free rider" banks which do not participate in debt restructuring and new money agreements. The provision applies across the universe of public sector borrowers so that a voluntary prepayment of one or more credits by one borrower would trigger mandatory prepayment not only by that borrower but 479 MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM
Brady bonds account for US$6.1 billion in Ecuadors overall external indebtedness of US$13 billion. The Brady bonds have been subject to a lot of financial engineering, including the stripping of the collateral out of the bonds. IMFs position: Ecuador needs to find out some US$500 million to cover its balance of payments shortfall until the end of next year, and about US$1 billion to cover its budget shortfall, and probably more since Ecuador has foreign currency denominated domestic debt.... For the first time in 55 years, the IMF is acquiescing in a countrys decision to default on its debts to the international bond markets.
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 481
the granting of security interests by a borrower over its assets to its creditors. In the case of a debt refinancing agreement, the debtor agrees with the banks not to provide any other group of creditors with security interest on the country's reserves, exports of goods, and public sector companies' assets. The objective of such a clause is to prevent a situation where a debtor would allocate significant assets to other creditors, thereby effectively subordinating the unsecured bank credits, hence an unequal and unfair treatment of creditors!
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 482
483
Collateralization schemes
To facilitate the placement of debt instruments in the international bond market issuers use various structures of enhancements. Asset-backed securities allow borrowers to tap the bond markets at considerably lower rates. Pemex issue in Japan secured by four offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Mexican insurance group launched an issue of mortage-backed securities with the bonds secured against US$-denominated mortgages granted to Mexican residents. Mexican company raised $200 million to finance a highway construction project through a bond issue backed by prospective toll revenues. 484 MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM
Asset-backed securities
October 1999: Argentina issued a $1.5 billion bond with a WB US$250 million collateral to guarantee sequential payments on the bond, borrowing for each payment the supranationals triple A credit rating. January 2001: Colombia issued a US$1.3 billion WB backed bond (Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan as advisers) November 2001: IFC, WBs private investment bank, responded positively to a request to provide guarantees to Philippines private sector companies
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 485
In a historic transaction, Peru returned to the global bond market for the first time in 74 years to exchange $1.21 billion of Bradys (mainly PDIs and Flirbs) for a new $930 million, 10year global bond. The exchange reduced Perus debt load by $280 million, generated NPV savings of $30 million.
EMBI+ index of most liquid and traded investments.
MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM 486
The new bond was priced 50 bp below the outstanding Bradys and qualified for JP Morgans
FLIRB
-9 8
-9 8
98
-9 8
99
Se p-
Se p-
M ar
M ay
Ja
Ja
Ju
de c99
97
98
Ju
ov
n9
n-
l-9
n-
488
Brady Bonds?
Default on interest payments triggers exercice of interest gurantee and of principal collateral guarantee Bullet Payment at maturity
LIBOR= 9 1/2
LIBOR = 5 1/4
t0
t10
t20
489
t30
How to assess and calculate the market value of a collateralized Brady Bond?
Brady bonds comprise defaulted London Club debt, repackaged and backed by 30-year US Treasury bonds as collateral, often including a rolling 18-month interest guarantee.
1. Strip the bond by separating the risk from the no-risk elements (interest and principal) 2. Calculate the risk-adjusted NPV of the guaranteed and non-guaranteed streams of interest payments and the principal payment at maturity, by using a risk-adjusted discount rate.
490
Enhanced liability management gives rise to debt exchanges: 1997: Brazil: US$4 billion Bradys for new 30-year global bond 1997: Argentina: US$2.3 billion Bradys for new 30-year global 1997: Venezuela: US$4 billion Brady exchange 1997: Panama: US$0.7 billion Brady exchange 1999: Philippines: US$1 billion Bradys for new 10year bond 1999: Brazil: US$2 billion Pars, Flirbs, NMBs for new 10- year bond 2000: Argentina: US$2.4 billion Pars, Discounts, FRBs for new 15-year global bond 2000: Brazil: US$5.2 billion Bradys for new global 491 MH BOUCHET (c) CERAM bond
A Brief Introduction
Sep 2009
Forex Markets
1. In Forex Mkt, currencies are bought and sold against each other.
2. Worlds largest market with a daily turnover of around $3.5 trillion a day.
3. The Indian Forex Mkt is very small compared to global 24 Hrs Forex market.
6. Major Centres : Tokyo, Singapore, New York, Frankfurt, Zurich, San Francisco.
3. SWIFT : is a non-profit Belgian cooperative from Geneva 4. All SWIFT centers around the world connected by data transmission lines.
5. A member bank can access a regional processor or main centre 6. This communications system links banks/ brokers in every financial centre.
7. The banks and brokers are in almost instant contact, 24 hours a day. 8. Significant events have Instantaneous impact due to Communication speed
1. Forex Mkt : One where individuals/firms banks buy and sell forex
1. Forex market includes both the spot and forward exchange rates.
2. Spot : Delivery within two business days after the day of transaction
4. Forward rates - For periods of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days from contract Date
1. Indirect Quote : The number of units of $ for one unit of home currency.
2. A cross rate can be obtained by multiplying two exchange rates by each other so as to eliminate a third currency that is common to both rates.
3. Common use of cross rate is to determine the Exchange rate between 2 currencies that are quoted against the US dollar but not against each other.
Bid-Ask Spreads
1. Interbank quotations are given a bid and ask (also referred to as offer) price.
2. A bid is the price in one currency at which a dealer will buy another currency.
3. An offer or ask is the price at which a dealer will sell the other currency.
4. Dealers generally bid (buy) at one price and offer (sell) at a higher price.
5. Making profit from spread, The Difference between buying and selling prices.
3. The forward rate is the rate quoted by foreign exchange traders for the
purchase or sale of foreign exchange in the future.
speculating.
3. However, there are a couple of characteristic categories of people who use
Cont.
Swaps
A swap Trn is a double-leg deal, in which one buys spot currency X selling
currency Y and simultaneously sells forward currency X buying currency Y.
Exc Rate
Spot
1 Mth Fwd
2 Mth Fwd
3 Mth Fwd
INR / DM
22.9410 / 40
20 / 24
20 / 25
15 / 19
INR / $
43.3125 / 10
15 / 10
20 / 15
20 / 20
Swaps
A swap Trn is a double-leg deal, in which one buys spot currency X selling
currency Y and simultaneously sells forward currency X buying currency Y.
Exc Rate
Spot
1 Mth Fwd
2 Mth Fwd
3 Mth Fwd
INR / DM
22.9410 / 40
20 / 24
20 / 25
15 / 19
INR / $
43.3125 / 10
15 / 10
20 / 15
20 / 20
Interest Arbitrage
3 2 B 1 0 1 2 3 3 Arbitrage inflow A
Arbitrage outflow
Interest parity
Arbitrage outflow 1.+ve int rate diff > FD (point A) 2..FP > -ve interest rate diff (point .A) Arbitrage inflow 1.FD > + ve intrest rate diff (point B) 2.-ve intrest rate diff > FP (point B)
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for DM
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for DM Arbitrage possible
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for DM Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for DM Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4 453.3
Cumulative
4,897.8
01-Jan-09 Spot DM Fwd 1 year Forward Premium - DM Intt Rate DM Intt Rate INR Intt Rate diff for DM Arbitrage possible 01-Jan-09 Buy DM Investment @ 31-Dec-09 Interest
100,000.0 10.2%
4,444.4 453.3
Cumulative
Trfr to INR Return % 23.3
4,897.8
113,873.3 13.87%
Chapter
8
The Foreign Exchange Market
The price at which the option is exercised is called the exercise/ strike price.
The computation of the break-even point is useful for a speculator deciding whether to purchase a currency call option or not.
Numerical Example Put option premium on $ = Rs. 0.4 per unit Strike price = Rs. 45.00 1 option contract represents 100 $
Nature of the symmetry refers to patterns of pay-offs around the exercise price
But a single futures position can neutralise exposure in underlying asset. Same hedge with options requires simultaneous put and call in many Mkts.
Chapter 9
Forex. Rate Movement and International Parity Conditions
1.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) : Links spot Fex rates to Price levels.
2.
3.
The Interest Rate Parity (IRP) : Links Fwd Exch rates and Nominal Intt.
The Intnl Fisher Effect (IFE) : Links Spot rate to nominal intt. rate levels.
a. Postulate : Equilibrium exch. rate of 2 nations = Ratio of their price levels b. Thus, prices of similar products of 2 countries should be equal c. When measured in a common currency as per the absolute version of PPP
Rs / $
= PRs / P$
2. This theory a/cs for market imperfections like transport costs,Tariffs/ quotas.
3.Relative PPP theory accepts that prices of similar products can Differ across countries when measured in a common currency.
R 1 / $1
[ (P
R1/
I -I (%)
PPP line A
-4 B
-2 -2
-4
The general conclusions of most of these tests have been that PPP does not accurately predict future exchange rates
That there are significant deviations from PPP persisting for lengthy periods.
IFE is closely related to the PPP because interest rates are significantly
The relationship between the percentage change in the spot exchange rate over time and the differential between comparable interest rates in different national capital markets is known as the International Fisher Effect.
The IFE suggests that given two countries, the currency in the country with the higher interest rate will depreciate by the amount of the interest rate differential.
I -I (%)
PPP line A
-4 B
-2 -2
-4
Exhibit 2 illustrates the IFE. The X axis shows the percentage change in the foreign currencys spot rate The Y axis shows the difference between the home and foreign interest rats The diagonal line indicates the IFE line It depicts the exchange rate adjustment to offset the differential in interest rates. For all points on the IFE line, an investor will end up achieving the same yield, Whether investing at home or in a foreign country. The IFE suggests that if a company regularly makes foreign investments, The yield is sometimes below and sometimes above domestic yield.
Summary of Theory The premium/ Discount in Forex rates Is a function of Difference in interest rates Between 2 countries. So, covered interest arbitrage return Will be no higher than domestic returns. The spot rate of one currency wrt another will change wrt differential in inflation rates between the two countries. So, purchasing power for consumers across countries will be similar
Inflation differential
a. b. c. d.
The spot rate of one currency wrt another b. will change wrt differential in inflation rates c. between the two countries. d. So, purchasing power for consumers across countries will be similar e.So, the return on uncovered foreign money market securities will, on an average, be no higher than the return on domestic money
a.
Chapter
11
Management of Translation Exposure
Translation Methods
Four methods of foreign currency translation have been developed in various
countries. 1. The current rate method
2.
3. 4.
fiscal years beginning on or after December 15, 1982. All foreign currency revenue and expense items on the income statement must be translated at either the exchange rate in effect on the date these items were recognised or at an appropriate weighted average exchange rate for the period. FASB 52 differentiates between a foreign affiliates functional and reporting currency.
Functional currency is defined as the currency of the primary economic environment in which the affiliate operates and in which it generates cash flows. The reporting currency is the currency in which the parent firm prepares
its own financial statements. This currency is normally the home country currency, i.e.,
All financial statement items restated in terms of the parent cur functional currency amount multiplied by the appropriate exchang
C C C C H
C C C C H
C C C C or H H
C C C C C
L/Term Debt
Net Worth
H
H
C
H
C
H
C
H
1.00
1.05
0.10
0.11
1.05
1.40
0.11
0.14
Current Method UK subsidiary Mil Sl no 1 2 3 4 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance A/cs receivable Inventories Fixed Assets Total Assets 31-1298 120 315 612 1,350 2,397 31Dec-99 143 407 750 1,300 2,600 French Subsidiary (Mil FF) 31-Dec98 2,143 4,020 3,950 7,010 17,123 31-Dec99 1,915 3,775 3,850 6,850 16,390 UK subsidiary Mil 31Dec-98 126 331 643 1,418 2,517 0 1 2 3 4 5 Bank Loans A/Cs Payable L/T Debt Net Worth 500 490 650 757 450 553 700 897 3,000 4,873 4,250 5,000 2,800 4,658 4,000 4,932 525 515 683 757 38 2,397 2,600 17,123 16,390 2,517 31-Dec99 200 570 1,050 1,820 3,640 0 630 774 980 942 314 3,640 French Subsidiary (Mil FF) 31-Dec98 238 447 439 779 1,903 0 333 541 472 500 56 1,903 31-Dec99 264 521 531 945 2,261 0 386 642 552 548 132 2,261
1.00 1.05
1.05 1.40
0.10 0.11
0.11 0.14
Monetary / Non-Monetary UK subsidiary Mil Sl no 1 2 3 4 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance A/cs receivable Inventories Fixed Assets 31Dec-98 120 315 612 1,350 31Dec-99 143 407 750 1,300 French Subsidiary (Mil FF) 31-Dec98 2,143 4,020 3,950 7,010 31-Dec99 1,915 3,775 3,850 6,850 UK subsidiary Mil 31Dec-98 126 331 612 1,350 31Dec-99 200 570 788 1,365 French Subsidiary (Mil FF) 31-Dec98 238 447 395 701 31-Dec99 264 521 428 761
Total Assets
2,397
2,600
17,123
16,390
2,419
2,923
1,781
1,974
1 2 3 4 5
Bank Loans A/Cs Payable L/T Debt Net Worth Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
2,397
2,600
17,123
16,390
2,419
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
1,468
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
1,468
4.7
1,720
7.1
1,135
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
1,468
4.7
4.7
1,720
129
7.1
7.1
1,135
85
5.5
110
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5
1,468
110
4.7
4.7 4.0
1,720
129 250
7.1
7.1 4.0
1,135
85 250
4.0
250
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5 4.0
1,468
110 250
4.7
4.7 4.0 4.7
1,720
129 250 194
7.1
7.1 4.0 7.1
1,135
85 250 128
5.5
165
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5 4.0 5.5
1,468
110 250 165
4.7
4.7 4.0 4.7 4.7
1,720
129 250 194 194
7.1
7.1 4.0 7.1 7.1
1,135
85 250 128 128
5.5
165
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5 4.0 5.5 5.5
1,468
110 250 165 165
4.7
4.7 4.0 4.7 4.7 4.7
1,720
129 250 194 194 129
7.1
7.1 4.0 7.1 7.1 7.1
1,135
85 250 128 128 85
5.5
110
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.5
1,468
110 250 165 165 110
4.7
4.7 4.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
1,720
129 250 194 194 129 860
7.1
7.1 4.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
1,135
85 250 128 128 85 567
5.5
734
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
1,468
110 250 165 165 110 734
4.7
4.7 4.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
1,720
129 250 194 194 129 860 344
7.1
7.1 4.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
1,135
85 250 128 128 85 567 227
5.5
294
6.4 4.5 4
Normal 6.4
Sales
Cost of sales : Inv COS - Depr COS - Others SD O/Hs Intt Exps PBT I Tax PAT
8,000
600 1,000 900 900 600 4,000 1,600 2,400
5.5
5.5 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
1,468
110 250 165 165 110 734 294
4.7
4.7 4.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
1,720
129 250 194 194 129 860 344 516
7.1
7.1 4.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
1,135
85 250 128 128 85 567 227 340
5.5
440
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
6.4
250,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
6.4
250,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 Rate 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333
6.4
500,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000
6.4
375,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000
6.4
750,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333
6.4
312,500
2,187,500
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 312,500 2,187,500 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 4.8 166,667 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333 83,333
6.4
125,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 6.4 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 312,500 2,187,500 125,000 4.8 4.8 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 166,667 333,333 9.6 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333 83,333 166,667
6.4
250,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 6.4 6.4 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 312,500 2,187,500 125,000 250,000 4.8 4.8 4.8 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 166,667 333,333 416,667 9.6 9.6 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333 83,333 166,667 208,333
6.4
312,500
14,000,000
2,187,500
2,916,667
1,458,333
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 6.4 6.4 6.4 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 312,500 2,187,500 125,000 250,000 312,500 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 166,667 333,333 416,667 2,000,000 400,000 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.0 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333 83,333 166,667 208,333 2,000,000 400,000
4.0
2,000,000
4.0
400,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.0 4.0 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 312,500 2,187,500 125,000 250,000 312,500 2,000,000 400,000 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 166,667 333,333 416,667 2,000,000 400,000 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.0 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333 83,333 166,667 208,333 2,000,000 400,000
14,000,000
2,187,500
2,916,667
1,458,333
Cur Rate
Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Ret. Earnings Tran Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.0 4.0 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Normal
6.4
Revaluation
25.00% 4.80
Devaluation
50.00% 9.60
Current Rate Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 750,000 312,500 2,187,500 125,000 250,000 312,500 2,000,000 400,000 (900,000) 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,000,000 416,667 2,916,667 166,667 333,333 416,667 2,000,000 400,000 (400,000) 2,916,667 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.0 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 500,000 208,333 1,458,333 83,333 166,667 208,333 2,000,000 400,000 (1,400,000) 1,458,333
14,000,000
2,187,500
Normal 6.4
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
6.4
250,000
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
4.8
333,333
9.6
166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4
500,000
375,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4
500,000
375,000
4.8
4.8
666,667
500,000
9.6
9.6
333,333
250,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4
500,000
375,000
4.8
4.8 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000
4.0 1,200,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4 4.0
500,000
375,000 1,200,000
4.8
4.8 4.0 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000
4.0
500,000
2,825,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.0 4.0
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 500,000 375,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,825,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000 4.8 166,667 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000 83,333
Particulars Cash & Bank Bal Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
1 2 3 4 5 6
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
125,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4 4.0 4.0
500,000
375,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,825,000
4.8
4.8 4.0 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4
125,000
4.8 4.8
166,667 333,333
9.6 9.6
83,333 166,667
6.4
250,000
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4 4.0 4.0
500,000
375,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,825,000
4.8
4.8 4.0 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 6.4
125,000 250,000
4.0
500,000
5
6
1,600,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000
6.4
6.4 4.0 4.0
500,000
375,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,825,000
4.8
4.8 4.0 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000
Cur Liabilities
6.4
125,000
4.8
166,667
9.6
83,333
2
3 4 5
LT Loan
LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
1,600,000
2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000
6.4
4.0
250,000
500,000
4.8
4.0 4.0 4.0
333,333
500,000 2,000,000 400,000
9.6
4.0 4.0 4.0
166,667
500,000 2,000,000 400,000
14,000,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4 4.0 4.0
500,000
375,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,825,000
4.8
4.8 4.0 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
4.0
400,000
4.0
400,000
4.0
400,000
14,000,000
0.0
2,825,000
3,200,000
2,450,000
Normal 6.4
Current / Non current Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000
6.4
6.4 4.0 4.0
500,000
375,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,825,000
4.8
4.8 4.0 4.0
666,667
500,000 1,200,000 500,000 3,200,000
9.6
9.6 4.0 4.0
333,333
250,000 1,200,000 500,000 2,450,000
1 2 3 4
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
5
6
1,600,000
4.0
400,000
(450,000)
4.0
400,000
(200,000) 3,200,000
4.0
400,000
(700,000) 2,450,000
14,000,000
0.0
2,825,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
6.4
250,000
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
6.4
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 Rate 4.8 Amount 333,333 Rate 9.6 Amount 166,667
6.4
2
3 4 5
Mkt Securities
Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets
3,200,000
2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000
6.4
500,000
4.8
666,667
9.6
333,333
1 2 3 4 5 6
Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333
6.4 6.4
4.5
533,333
Total Liabilities
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333
4.0
500,000
2,983,333
Total Liabilities
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,983,333 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 4.8 166,667 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333 83,333
6.4
125,000
Total Liabilities
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,983,333 6.4 125,000 4.8 4.8 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 166,667 333,333 9.6 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333 83,333 166,667
6.4
250,000
Total Liabilities
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,983,333 6.4 6.4 125,000 250,000 4.8 4.8 4.8 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 166,667 333,333 416,667 9.6 9.6 9.6 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333 83,333 166,667 208,333
6.4
312,500
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,983,333 6.4 6.4 6.4 125,000 250,000 312,500 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 166,667 333,333 416,667 2,000,000 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333 83,333 166,667 208,333 2,000,000
4.0
2,000,000
Total Liabilities
14,000,000
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,983,333 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.0 125,000 250,000 312,500 2,000,000 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 166,667 333,333 416,667 2,000,000 400,000 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.0 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333 83,333 166,667 208,333 2,000,000 400,000
4.0
400,000
2,983,333
Total Liabilities
14,000,000
3,233,333
2,733,333
Cur Rate Historical (Inv) Historical (Dep) No 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Cash & Bank Balance Mkt Securities Inventory Plant &Eqpt Goodwill Total Assets 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cur Liabilities LT Loan LT Debt Capital stock Retained Earnings Transln Gain/ Loss Total Liabilities
6.4 4.5 4 31-Mar-01 1,600,000 3,200,000 2,400,000 4,800,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 800,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 8,000,000 1,600,000 Rate
Normal 6.4
Monetary / Non-Monetary Amount 250,000 500,000 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,983,333 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.0 4.0 125,000 250,000 312,500 2,000,000 400,000 (104,167) 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 Rate 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 333,333 666,667 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 3,233,333 166,667 333,333 416,667 2,000,000 400,000 (83,333) 3,233,333 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.0 Rate 9.6 9.6 4.5 4.0 4.0 Amount 166,667 333,333 533,333 1,200,000 500,000 2,733,333 83,333 166,667 208,333 2,000,000 400,000 (125,000) 2,733,333
14,000,000
2,983,333
Group presentations
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
FDI MNC Capital Budgeting MNC Cash Management International Taxation Depository receipts GDR/ADRS
Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch
14 16 17 19 23
1 5 2 4 2
Others (Self will handle) 1. Cost of Capital and Cap Structure 2. Country Risk analysis 3. International Banking 4. Euro currency markets 5. Swaps and Exch. Arithmetic 6. Euro and Implication for India
SGD/USD
INR/USD
0.301
14.944
-0.014
1.532
30.446
1076.20
Correlations Shown by the Top Nine Currencies of the World Against Each other (1993-2000)
CAD
DEM
FRE
JPY
GBP
SHF
AUD
KHD
1.00
100
Risk Grade A+ (Very Low) A (Low) B + (Average) B (Medium) C (High) D (Very High) E (Extremely High)
Name of Co Its HO Currecny Tran Currency Problem DC needs (Sterling) When (no of days) Current Spot rate (no of $ / ) Forward rate 180 days quote (no of $ / ) Interest Rates
DC Corp $
Deposit rate
Borrowing rate (180 days)
4.5%
5.1%
4.5%
5.1%
Call option prem on 180 days strike 1.49 Future Spot rate Probabilities
$ 0.03 Expd rate $ 1.44 $ 1.46 $ 1.53 Prob 0.2 0.6 0.2
Forward Hedge
148,000
100,000 1.045
Needed now ()
95,694
Price of needed presently in $ terms (1.5$/) Borrowing cost of $ for 180 days (5.1%) Cumulative Cost impact
143,541 7,321
150,861
Expd Spot
Exercise Call ?
Total cost
Actual O/F
Prob
Expd Value
No No Yes
Expd Spot
Applicable rate
Total cost
Actual O/F
Prob
Expd Value
147,000.0