Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Myles Allen
Department of Physics, University of Oxford
myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk
Oxford University
Libya at the nexus of the climate change issue
Fossil fuel
producers
Libya
Oxford University
Why we need a new perspective on the climate
change issue
Oxford University
Myth: Climate has always varied, so the present
trend is nothing to worry about
Oxford University
Fact: we cannot explain the past century without
both human and natural influence on climate
Observations
Oxford University
Fact: we cannot explain the past century without
both human and natural influence on climate
Observations
Oxford University
Myth: not all scientists agree that this warming
will continue if GHG levels continue to rise
Climate response to
the IS92a scenario
of future emissions,
Pat Michaels predicted by 2001
(2000, 2004) IPCC models and by
Patrick Michaels, a
prominent critic of
the IPCC
Oxford University
Myth: the most significant impacts of climate
change are melting ice caps and sea level rise
Oxford University
Fact: the most significant impacts of climate
change are changing risks of extreme weather
Surface temperature
departures from
normal in early
August 2003, from
NASA’s Moderate
Resolution Imaging
Spectrometer,
courtesy of Reto
Stöckli, ETHZ
Oxford University
Myth: climate change was to blame for
Hurricane Katerina
Oxford University
Myth: climate change was not to blame for
Hurricane Katerina
Oxford University
Myth: scientists have no idea whether climate
change was to blame for Hurricane Katerina
Oxford University
Fact: we can establish a causal link between
individual weather events and climate change
Oxford University
An example: the European heat-wave of summer
2003
Surface temperature
departures from
normal in early
August 2003, from
NASA’s Moderate
Resolution Imaging
Spectrometer,
courtesy of Reto
Stöckli, ETHZ
Oxford University
Impact of the heat-wave on mortality in Southern
Germany
2003 Summer
Heat-wave
Influenza epidemic
Future projection
Instrumental
observations
Oxford University
How human influence on climate has affected
the risk of heat-waves in Europe
9x increase in risk
Oxford University
A more challenging example: flood risk in the
United Kingdom
Nationwide impact:
£1.3bn of insured loss.
Over 10,000 properties
flooded.
Oxford University
It has happened before: Shillingford historic
flood levels
2003
Oxford University
Standard climate models may be good enough
for heat-waves, but not for precipitation
Oxford University
Precipitation in a higher-resolution (1.25x0.8o)
version of HadAM3
Oxford University
The climateprediction.net seasonal attribution
experiment (Pall et al, 2007)
Oxford University
Simulating the climate that might have been on
your desktop: http://attribution.cpdn.org
Oxford University
The world’s largest climate modelling facility:
www.climateprediction.net
Thank you!
…and in one
of the wetter
members of
our ensemble.
Oxford University
Model resolution over Libya
Oxford University
Changing flood risk in Tripoli due to
greenhouse gas increase 1900-2000
Oxford University
Changing drought risk in Tripoli due to
greenhouse gas increase 1900-2000
Oxford University
Changing flood risk in the United Kingdom due to
greenhouse gas increase 1900-2000
Oxford University
Fraction of current risk of Autumn-2000-type
precipitation attributable to GHG increase
Increase in risk
0 25% 67%
Grossman (2003)
liability threshold
Oxford University
Why action to control greenhouse gas emissions
may be coming sooner than you expect
Oxford University
Emission profiles consistent with a ~20%, ~50%
and ~80% risk of maximum warming >2oC
Oxford University
Why rationing won’t work
Oxford University
Oxford University
Fact: We will burn more fossil fuel than we can
afford to dump in the atmosphere, so the only real
issue is how fast we can move to sequestering
(burying) the CO2 released
Oxford University
And we can afford to pay a lot more for fossil
fuels than it costs to dig them up
Sequestration cost of
$20/barrel, or $150/tonne
Oxford University
How would this work?
Oxford University
And the advantage for Libya is…
Oxford University
A scenario for containing the risk of dangerous
climate change without limiting consumption
Oxford University
Of course, reducing consumption makes the
challenge easier, but is that in your interest?
Oxford University
From the Desert: the wide open space for an
alternative policy approach to climate change
Oxford University
How Oxford could help
Oxford University
Myth: observed temperature changes can be
explained by solar variability
Oxford University