Can India make it to the

league of economics'
superpower in the next
25 yrs?
(Against the motion)

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 Will the Golden bird


ever fly again?



2
Will India Become an Economic
Superpower?

India is already a large player.

It will become larger.
But it may not become one of three giants
India : A Confluence Of
Contradictions

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 CONTENTS

 Definition of a Economic Superpower

 Checklist

 Barriers to Growth

 Risks which prevent India from becoming

economic super power?
 Conclusion

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 Definition of a Superpower
Super power is a country that has the capacity to
project dominating power and influence anywhere
in the world



AND


A country with the leading position in the

international system and the ability to influence
events and its own interest and project power on

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 Checklist for a superpower
 Sizeable but manageable population

 Political cohesion and stability

 High levels of technological development

 Democracy

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 Barriers to growth
Unsuccessful schemes and underdeveloped


infrastructure
Poverty

Growing unemployment


Unfavorable demographics


Health problems

Political & administrative hurdles

Monetary & fiscal mismanagement
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BARRIERS TO GROWTH

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Infrastructure woes…

“We invest crores of

rupees every year on road
construction and
maintenance, and yet with
every monsoon our roads
get worn out.”

-Manmohan Singh
(second national conference
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UNFAVOURABLE
DEMOGRAPHICS

o Lack of jobs

o Lack of education

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12
 Health concerns…
Unhygienic environment


Less facilities in hospitals



Lack of food and health care



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14
 GROWING UNEMPLOYMENT

 The official unemployment count for 2005-2006 is

7% of the workforce.
 India estimates current unemployment to be
around 7.8%.
 Nearly 35 million are registered with employment
exchange.
 Must create 60 million jobs in 5 years to keep
jobless rate from rising.
 Labor force is growing at a rate of 2.5% annually
but employment is growing at only 2.3%.

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12/29/08
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India currently has the 12th
largest GDP in the world…

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 Political & Administrative Hurdles
India : 50th in the list of 131 economies (down five
notches) covered under the Global Competitiveness Index
(GCI), Global Competitiveness Report , World Economic
Forum.


IMF’s trade restrictiveness index : 8/10 ;It accounts for

1.62% of the world’s GDP ; 0.82% of the merchandise
trade.


Labour reforms need urgency (Industrial Disputes act,

1947).
 Bureaucracy (Red Tapeism)


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7th March 2008
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 Monetary Mismanagement…
Many a times, RBI’s monetary policy has become a


hurdle in the path of India’s economic growth



India is currently seeing the largest slowdown in



growth of corporate borrowings (from 20% to 30%)

– ‘RBI Mantra, Hindu Constant’, E.T


Continuous fall in transport equipments (including



vehicles) … signs of a slowing economy.



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21
 POVERTY
 One fifth of the world’s people live on less
than $ 1 a day, and 44% of them are in South
Asia

 26 percent of India is below the poverty line

 This is happening in mainly in rural areas of

India

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Failed Schemes …

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WHAT ARE THE RISK THAT
MIGHT PREVENT INDIA
FROM BECOMING
AN ECONOMIC
SUPERPOWER?
 POLITICAL RISKS

Less number of Foreign



Investments.

 Politics over economy.

 India is highest in political risk

Water stress
Water scarce
SECURITY RISKS
 Regional conflict

 Terrorism

Water stress
Water scarce
 GLOBAL RISKS
 Global recession.

 Spread of global terrorism or other forms of

conflicts.

 Global warming or other environmental

threats to growth.
Water stress
Water scarce
 Conclusion
Will India become an economic superpower?


 On current trends, no

India’s weaknesses are:



An absence of charismatic leaders.

Inadequate investment in research and technology.
Inequalities in incomes and growth.
Massive disguised unemployment.
Commitment and discipline can capitulate any
nation to greatness.


 28
 7th March 2008
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THANK YOU